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Danny12357

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12 juill. 2018
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: NHL Trades23 mars à 16 h 43
Sujet: (OTT/VAN) - 3rd for Hamonic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>Yeah, this is a weird one. Those of you who are suggesting that Ottawa would have been better off to trade the pick for Dermott instead of Hamonic are assuming that they had the opportunity to do that. I think GMs have their favourite trading partners and probably don’t call every other GM in the league before they make a deal. Dorion may not have known that Dermott was available for a mid-3rd-rounder.

A couple of other pieces of trivia around this that some of you might find mildly entertaining:

1) Vancouver got back their own 2022 third-round pick from Ottawa, but the pick they sent to Toronto isn’t the same 2022 third-round pick. It’s Winnipeg’s. Based on today’s standings, that would be exactly one pick after Vancouver’s, so if that holds, not only did Vancouver exchange Hamonic for Dermott, they also moved up one spot in the draft.

2) Both of these picks were traded for Nate Schmidt at different times. Vancouver traded their pick to Vegas to get Schmidt, then a year later flipped him to Winnipeg for their pick. Since these picks are going to be pretty close to equal, they got a year of Schmidt for nothing (other than his salary).</div></div>

I would imagine you are right about Dorian not necessarily know that he could have had Dermott (and he likely could not have had him for the same price). I was listening to an episode of the podcast Agent Provacateur and Allan Walsh essentially suggested that a majority of NHL GMs only have a tight circle of other GMs they talk to regularly. I would imagine Dorian isn't talking to Dubas regularly, and Dubas probably would have wanted a bit of a premium to trade Dermott to a division rival, even if that rival isn't a near term playoff threat.

The interesting thing to me though, is that no matter what way you slice it, Ottawa paying an asset for a veteran defensemen at the deadline is a bit strange. Hamonic was on waivers earlier this year I believe, and he doesn't fit the veteran profile Ottawa often looks for. He has a signing bonus, and earns more in salary for next year than he counts against the cap, basically the opposite of what Ottawa usually wants. They could likely have waited until the offseason and likely gotten a veteran D making a little too much from a team looking to shed salary (maybe even Hamonic) or just signed one to an inexpensive deal. The fact that they didn't do either of those things makes be believe they very specifically wanted Hamonic, and see something there worth paying for. Either way, it was a strange deal.
Forum: NHL Trades23 mars à 15 h 41
Forum: NHL Trades22 mars à 11 h 56
Sujet: (ANA/VGK) - Kesler, Moore for Dadonov and 2nd Round Pick [REVERSED]
Vegas is full on in LTIR, so accrued cap space becomes less useful than actually taking on LTIR to increase the cushion, so my guess is this may allow them to activate a player they would not have been able to otherwise ahead of the playoffs, and that could be necessary for them to even make the playoffs. Either way, they needed to move salary before next year anyway, and nobody was going to be doing Vegas any favors, so I get why they made this deal.

All that being said, Anaheim wins here, and hand one hell of a deadline for a team that should be re-building aggressively. Adding picks and prospects now, so you can start to be competitive in 2-3 years as Zegras enters his prime is the way to go, and they just loaded up the cupboard. I believe they will probably find a way to get something out of Dadonov too, so this is a pure win.

Anaheim and Montreal's management groups really have done an excellent job just diving into a rebuild/retool and getting massive assets very quickly. Not sure I have ever seen a new GM get so aggressive so quickly, but now we are seeing two do it at once. Will be exciting to see those two teams build and likely become really competitive in the next few years.
Forum: NHL Trades20 mars à 15 h 54
Sujet: (TBL/CHI) - 2x 1st, Katchouk, Raddysh for Hagel, 2x 4th
Chicago wins here, hands down, they get amazing value out of a middle six winger, but the way they won is they found 1 trade partner that needed specifically what they had to offer, and by making it clear they didn't need to move him allowed them to extract that price even if there was only one team willing to come close to the ask. Excellent move.

I don't think that makes it bad for Tampa, they basically decided they have limited draft capital for their remaining cup window, and Hagel has a cap hit and skill set that fits in well with the window that they are zeroed in on. They have 2 cups, they would love to 3 peat, but if they have 3 serious contending years left in this core, maximizing the opportunity to win 3 or even 4 cups with this core would solidify them as the most successfully run team in the modern era (I think they already are), so getting someone that can give them a few kicks at the can was worth paying a premium for.
Forum: NHL Signings29 oct. 2021 à 13 h 13
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Morgan Rielly (8 Years / $7,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Emoon</b></div><div>Kinda scary, but at least we're not losing more assets to free agency.

The depth for next year is absolutely shot though

And Jack is probably gone too now</div></div>

Not sure this is the case. Even if the cap is flat again (likely, but some rumors of a $1M increase), the Kessel dead cap of $1.2M covers about half of this pay increase in the early going. With Ritchie and Kerfoot being expensive depth pieces, the Leafs could move one or both without too much trouble to free up cap for Jack and keep the depth intact. They have a bit of a bridge with Bunting and Simmonds on for an extra year each, Robertson likely ready for full time duty, and Spezza likely back at league minimum. I think they have more flexibility in the medium term than people realize.

I think the biggest questions will be about Muzzin. He hasn't looked himself at all this year, and even if he rebounds, if you have Sandin moving up the depth chart, and Rielly now signed long term, will this offseason be the time to move on from Muzzin while there may still be teams willing to take on his cap hit for leadership, grit and cup experience. He isn't owed a lot of actual money after July 1st, and it could be a situation where moving him before a complete falloff starts to make sense if what we have seen so far this year is a glimpse into what that fall off could look like longer term.
Forum: NHL Signings29 oct. 2021 à 12 h 57
Forum: NHL Signings7 août 2021 à 11 h 54
Sujet: New Jersey Devils signed Tomas Tatar (2 Years / $4,500,000 AAV)
He's going to help Jersey a lot, and he's likely a good value at this price, but I expected him to kind of be the steal of this FA season and end up with a salary starting with a $3M for 1-2 years. Still like the deal, and Jersey getting a bit aggressive after landing Hamilton is the right move, and 2 years makes it no risk, so no criticism of the signing at all. Just a little surprised this is just a good deal and not one of the biggest home runs of the offseason. Good for Tatar though that the narrative that he disappears in the playoffs didn't cost him too insane an amount of money. I'm sure he's got some issues with confidence at certain times, but he's barely been given a chance to try and prove anyone wrong, and at this price for this team, he's going to get his chance.
Forum: NHL Signings7 août 2021 à 11 h 50
Sujet: Edmonton Oilers signed Darnell Nurse (8 Years / $9,250,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>Hopefully he continues to improve and this year's was not his peak because... it's gonna age badly.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Another very expensive contract for a defenceman that carries a lot of risk.With that being said, if Nurse plays like he did last year – for every season going forward – he has the potential to live up to his new contract. <a href="https://t.co/hdwgTvdAVQ" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/hdwgTvdAVQ</a></p>— dom at the athletic (@domluszczyszyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1423701325007790083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">August 6, 2021</a></blockquote>
</div></div>

I think the problem here with the way it will age is that Nurse is unlikely to be the best shooting D in the NHL. Elite goal scoring D (Hamilton, Chycrun) who shoot a lot likely finish with a career 6-7% shooting percentage. They may have the odd season up around 10%, but it's not repeatable and you don't want to pay based on that. Nurse either needs to improve significantly in his offensive game, defensive game, or continue to shoot 10% in order to justify this contract, and even then, it's no steal. That's one hell of a gamble.

I think the worst part about the cap is how it kind of warps our perception of what a player is if they are over paid. Nurse is Edmonton's best D, and any team would be happy to have him as part of their core for the right price. There is no argument that he is outright bad. However he will now likely have a lot of years as a guy who fails to outperform his contract, and players actual value does relate heavily to their cap hit, so it's likely going to change the perception of him quickly.
Forum: NHL Signings7 août 2021 à 11 h 44
Sujet: New York Islanders signed Adam Pelech (8 Years / $5,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rollie1967</b></div><div>Those last 3 years are going to hurt. but far from the worst contract. today.</div></div>

While it's better to buy no years you will regret, it's not always possible. If you feel like you got enough surplus value early in a contract, sometimes that's a worthwhile risk. With the way LTIR often works and ability to move vet players who are a little overpaid later as good vets, if you feel you are getting significant outperformance early, and you don't offer too many contracts that are likely to sour at the same time, I think its reasonable to give a little extra term (even if it won't be great value at that time) to keep the value higher today.

I think Pelech has a low chance of underperforming this contract in the first handful of years, and I think with the current D market, it's a smart bet to lock up an elite defensive D while even moderately good offensive D are getting so overpaid.
Forum: NHL Signings7 août 2021 à 11 h 40
Sujet: New York Islanders signed Adam Pelech (8 Years / $5,750,000 AAV)
I really like this deal. Pelech is extremely good defensively, and at this clip, he isn't being paid to be a number 1, so it softens the blow to a point where it makes it likely he lives up to this deal more often than not.

D often are not rated on their defensive game very accurately, and I feel like some of the best values right now are when you can get an actually good defensive defensemen signed. Some of the problem can be that players who drive good defensive results aren't often universally agreed upon (Lindell, Jones), but Pelech has very quietly and consistently been between well above average to elite defensively for a few years, and he does so without seeming to hinder his team offensively. I'd rather have a few guys like that driving the D core then overpay for a guy like Jones because he "looks" like a more "complete" D. Problem with me for Jones is that he has always been consistently overrated because he looks smooth, and isn't bad at anything, but that obscures the simple fact he isn't close to elite at anything either, yet he gets talked about as if the sum of his parts still are.

Anyway, Lou has quietly had a great summer. He managed to almost break even on moving out Ladd and Leddy, sounds like he likely has signed some key vet forwards likely at reasonable terms and rates, didn't overpay in expansion (didn't love his choice of players on his list, but it likely made little difference, he was losing a $5M forward like Bailey or Eberle regardless so no harm done). I even like the Panik part of dealing out Leddy.

I think he managed to manage his future assets decently, cleaned up the cap a little, keep a strong team together. He's probably not quite as deserving of the GM of the year title he has, but he certainly hasn't had a bad summer (unless we find out he gave Palmieri an insane deal).
Forum: NHL Signings31 juill. 2021 à 10 h 59
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Nick Ritchie (2 Years / $2,500,000 AAV)
Solid bet. AAV is high enough it's not a steal, but Ritchie is a decent physical player with the ability to score some goals. He takes too many penalties, but as long as even up calls are a real thing in the NHL, I don't think it harms his value as much as it's given credit for in most analytics model (different models seem to weight it differently).

I think Tatar is a better player, but likely costs what Toronto paid for Kase and Ritchie combined. Nice thing about splitting it is that it's easier to manage from a cap perspective, and there is a chance both deliver their full value, and less of a chance of missing completely on both.

Toronto isn't having as bad a summer as some think, but it really depends on how you rate their current group. If you look at last season on it's own, the Leafs were much better defensively, still strong offensively, very strong analytically, and really outplayed Montreal but ran into an extremely hot goalie. Toronto looked better against Montreal than Vegas did. Other top teams took more of a step back than Toronto did, and they did make some nice bets to counter one of their biggest weaknesses last year, which was depth scoring. It's fine for fans to overreact, it's why we watch sports, but I am glad management isn't. It's actually refreshing to see a GM with some conviction when on the hot seat. No big changes just for the sake of it, no mortgaging the entire future to save a job. Most GMs enter this sort of season with a swing for the fences mentality, knowing that if they gamble and win, they look good, but if they lose, it won't be their problem. If Dubas doesn't make it to next season, someone new won't really inherit a big mess of an organization with newly added bad contracts and lost assets to terrible desperation trades.

This isn't to say he's made no mistakes, there are plenty of good and bad moves, but it's nice to see he had a plan, and he's willing to just stick to it and either prove that it can work, or get fired if it doesn't.
Forum: NHL Signings27 juill. 2021 à 20 h 51
Sujet: Montreal Canadiens signed Joel Armia (4 Years / $3,400,000 AAV)
I don't dislike the player or the term, but this is that middle AAV that goes to middle 6 wingers where it's either an overpayment for a clear bottom 6 guy (Kerfoot, Kassian, Goodrow), or an excellent value deal for a guy who is clearly a top 6 winger (Donskoi, Toffoli, Danault).

A salary in the mid 3's to low 4's never seems just right, it just always seems off in one direction or the other, and if I had to guess in this case it's an overpayment going forward. I don't think Armia has some extra gear to make it a steal, and while he is good enough to make it not awful, I think you can get similar value on much less expensive contracts, and the problem ends up becoming having a player in this salary range who is overpaid by $1M often hurts your roster more than say a $8M player overpaid by a similar amount.
Forum: NHL Signings26 juill. 2021 à 17 h 13
Sujet: Florida Panthers signed Sam Bennett (4 Years / $4,425,000 AAV)
Bennett was always going to be hard to value. He was drafted highly, but he just wasn't good in Calgary. It wasn't just an opportunity thing, he got outplayed by other players in similar minutes such as Mangiapane, and there was little evidence to back up the idea of giving him more opportunity.

He had great results in Florida, and it was backed up by very strong underlying numbers. The problem for me with this contract is that it likely tilts a little too far toward Florida assuming he is more often going to be closer to the player he looked to be with them, then the player he was in Calgary, so I don't feel like they got quite enough of a discount to justify this bet. For this to be a slam dunk, he basically needs to be a 60-70 point player, and this is a brutal deal if he's nothing more than a passenger on his line.

I like the idea of bets on players, but I think this one just leans too much toward assuming he's likely to hit on the upside.
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