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Cole Caufield is not Jason Robertson

Créé par: Wreckless
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 2 déc. 2022
Publié: 2 déc. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
What say ye all? What do you think the final cap hit looks like and for exactly how many years?

Advance warning, anyone who puts him higher than Suzuki is immediately getting blocked. Not worth the time/effort/headspace trying to reason with the unreasonable.
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $69 052 499 $1 170 000 $4 277 500 $13 447 501 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
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M-NTC
UFA - 4
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 7
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3 362 500 $3 362 500 $
C, AD
RFA - 3
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
C
UFA - 2
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918 333 $918 333 $
AD, C
RFA - 4
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1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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885 000 $885 000 $
C
RFA - 4
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 2
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 3
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
UFA - 2
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1 925 000 $1 925 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance275 000 $$275K)
DD
RFA - 1
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828 333 $828 333 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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875 000 $875 000 $ (Bonis de performance82 500 $$82K)
DD
RFA - 3
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850 000 $850 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Équipe de réserve
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ (0 $$00 $$0)
G
UFA - 1
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762 500 $762 500 $ (0 $$00 $$0)
DD
UFA - 1

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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 16
#26
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Wreckless
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
I don't know why you're saying he's "not" Jason Robertson. It ignores the fact that a) Robertson has gone supernova this month(20 goals over his last 17 GP) and that b) Caufield is on pace to actually exceed Robertson's goalscoring from last year - which would be the year his agent is gonna point at.

Last year was Robertson's age-22 season, the last year of his ELC, and he put up 41-38-79 in 74 GP before extending at 4x$7.75M this summer.

This year is Caufield's age-22 season, it's the last year of his ELC, and he's on a 46-32-78 pace over a full 82 GP. Why *wouldn't* his agent point at Robertson as the #1 comp for him?


“Hey Dallas, Kent Hughes here. What would you say about Caufield and a 1st for Robertson?”

*click*
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 17
#27
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Quoting: Wreckless
What’ll actually cut you real deep is when Matthews and Marner walk for nothing, cuz Dubas was genius enough to give both full NMCs in the last years of their deals at 26 years old, walking them to UFA with zero team leverage.
Don’t take my word for it though. What the heck do I know, right?


Nothing, the answer is nothing.

You must be related to John Snow.
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 19
#28
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Quoting: NoVaSpartan
Shouldn't be hard, other players coming off ELC aren't players scoring at a 45 goal pace that in any market easily commands a Robertson-esque deal. Not wanting to pay market value for stars is going to make you lose them for nothing, it would be foolish not to pay a reasonable price for a guy on pace for 45 goals. its not going to somehow make RFAs on, lets say a 20 goal pace, want huge deals like Caufield or Suzuki.

Glad we found Tom Gaglardi's burner though.


Coming up shortly: Harris, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Xhekaj…eventually a replacement number one goalie…

GMs have to live in the world larger than fans who only get exciting by players who score a lot. It takes more than just goal scorers to make a team. Pacioretty got traded for his personality, remember?
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 20
#29
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Quoting: Ritzy
I think it would be smarter for MTL to get him locked up long term now. Smarter for CC to take a short term deal (3 years or so) and maximize his dollars on his 3rd contract. See how it plays out.


8 year deal at less than Suzuki’s cap hit. Smartest for all sides. PK wanted more than Price and got shipped out of town. Hopefully Caufield doesn’t make the same wrong choices.
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 21
#30
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Quoting: Ritzy
Nothing, the answer is nothing.

You must be related to John Snow.


It must be tough being a Leafs fan. I empathize with you. To a point.
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 21
#31
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Quoting: Wreckless
“Hey Dallas, Kent Hughes here. What would you say about Caufield and a 1st for Robertson?”

*click*


Good rebuttal, just ignore the things that actual agents & GMs are going to look at (comparable player seasons at the same age) and base it on whether or not the two players would be traded for each other today.

Tell me this: you're Montreal GM for a day, and that day just happens to be the day Pat Brisson comes in to negotiate Cole's extension. He points to Jason Robertson's age-22 season and Cole Caufield's age-22 season and says he's looking for that deal. Are you going to tell him that "well Dallas wouldn't trade Caufield 1-for-1 for Robertson today so your client isn't worth that?"
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 24
#32
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Quoting: Wreckless
Coming up shortly: Harris, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Xhekaj…eventually a replacement number one goalie…

GMs have to live in the world larger than fans who only get exciting by players who score a lot. It takes more than just goal scorers to make a team. Pacioretty got traded for his personality, remember?


Of course it takes more than a goal scorer, but I'm someone who's watched a team that, for the last 15 years, has been directly built around a goal scorer, and it works out pretty well for them. The Cap isn't going to stay the same, and getting Caufield for a Robertson esque deal will still leave them with plenty of space in the future, you can't expect the Andersons, Hoffmans, and Dadanovs of the world to continue to end up in Montreal to take up cap space. You've got two years before Slafkovsky, trends with young defensemen getting contracts (Durzi, Mikey Anderson, etc) will mean they won't get very much (especially Xhekaj).

You're worrying yourself into a corner that Montreal won't really end up being in. If a 45 goal scorer can't have space found for him in a plan for the future, I don't know how you expect to succeed, especially when the cap is projected to start jumping, leaving Montreal even more space if they choose to pay Caufield what he's worth right now.
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 25
#33
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Quoting: Ritzy
I think it would be smarter for MTL to get him locked up long term now. Smarter for CC to take a short term deal (3 years or so) and maximize his dollars on his 3rd contract. See how it plays out.


I agree. Don't know how we went from "How much is the next CC contract" to the hilarious anti-Leafs narrative that people try to push. We can play the bad contract game all day...
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 26
#34
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Good rebuttal, just ignore the things that actual agents & GMs are going to look at (comparable player seasons at the same age) and base it on whether or not the two players would be traded for each other today.

Tell me this: you're Montreal GM for a day, and that day just happens to be the day Pat Brisson comes in to negotiate Cole's extension. He points to Jason Robertson's age-22 season and Cole Caufield's age-22 season and says he's looking for that deal. Are you going to tell him that "well Dallas wouldn't trade Caufield 1-for-1 for Robertson today so your client isn't worth that?"


Caufield is less valuable to the Habs (and more replaceable, less scarcity value) than Suzuki. So he gets a lower cap hit. Caufield needs Suzuki to be effective more than Suzuki needs Caufield.

GMs are tasked with keeping their players’ and their agents’ expectations in line with what works for the team. That is built over time, not negotiated in a day. Players who think they’re above the team like Pacioretty and Subban get traded, and have books written about them.

Agents who value dollars over all else see their players playing on teams that never (or rarely) win or even make the playoffs. Or end up on legendary regular season teams who can’t win a playoff series.
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 27
#35
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Quoting: Wreckless
He can have $7mm on a long term deal, sure.


Quoting: Wreckless
He can have $7mm on a long term deal, sure.


well i am very sorry for you. you are going to be crushed when he signs for 3x7.775
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 30
#36
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Quoting: Wreckless
It must be tough being a Leafs fan. I empathize with you. To a point.


In the last 7 years the Habs have made it out of the first round 1 time more than the Leafs. I'm not exactly sure where you're going with all of this here, or if the Leafs hurt you somehow, but it's not as if you've won any more cups than the Leafs recently?
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 30
#37
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Quoting: oliver_wahlstrom
well i am very sorry for you. you are going to be crushed when he signs for 3x7.775


It’s possible. But then his fanboys will be the ones ultimately crushed after he gets dealt. Same as they were after the Subban deal.

He’s either a team player or he’s not. It’s his call.

My guess, from what I’ve seen, he’s a team first guy. Not sure what a better scenario would be for him elsewhere than St. Louis, Suzuki, and Dach.
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 31
#38
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Quoting: Wreckless
Caufield is less valuable to the Habs (and more replaceable, less scarcity value) than Suzuki. So he gets a lower cap hit. Caufield needs Suzuki to be effective more than Suzuki needs Caufield.

GMs are tasked with keeping their players’ and their agents’ expectations in line with what works for the team. That is built over time, not negotiated in a day. Players who think they’re above the team like Pacioretty and Subban get traded, and have books written about them.


So you'd rather put an artificial cap on *anyone* else on the team's contract because of an extension signed in a flat-cap world, despite the fact that the cap will be going up significantly in the next 2-3 years. Hockey players do tend to think of the team more than other sports, sure, but 40 goal scorers are incredibly rare and lowballing one because of some asinine "team" concept you've built in your head is the quickest way to put them in another uniform.

If I'm Caufield's agent and you're telling me this, I immediately start getting in touch with every other GM in the league. All someone has to give up is a 1st/2nd/3rd package to sign Caufield to an $8M offer sheet. Are you prepared to let him walk for that return, just because of this artificial cap you're putting in?
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 33
#39
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
So you'd rather put an artificial cap on *anyone* else on the team's contract because of an extension signed in a flat-cap world, despite the fact that the cap will be going up significantly in the next 2-3 years. Hockey players do tend to think of the team more than other sports, sure, but 40 goal scorers are incredibly rare and lowballing one because of some asinine "team" concept you've built in your head is the quickest way to put them in another uniform.

If I'm Caufield's agent and you're telling me this, I immediately start getting in touch with every other GM in the league. All someone has to give up is a 1st/2nd/3rd package to sign Caufield to an $8M offer sheet. Are you prepared to let him walk for that return, just because of this artificial cap you're putting in?


Asked and answered. Peace out. ✌️
2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 34
#40
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Quoting: Wreckless
It must be tough being a Leafs fan. I empathize with you. To a point.


Haha, I'm perfectly content cheering for TOR.

You must have woken up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. It appears as though you're looking for confrontation on a few threads. I'd suggest taking a break from CF, for your own sanity.

Have a wonderful day.
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 41
#41
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Quoting: Wreckless
We don’t overpay the overhyped in this market. We buy low and sell high. There will be 7 years of overlap on the Suzuki and Caufield deals. If his agent is actually making that case looking 8 years out, easy solution. 7 year deal. I don’t imagine though that anyone negotiating will be as easily fooled by agent propaganda and media.

One other tidbit as well, everyone knew the cap was going to go up when Suzuki signed his deal also. And more recently as well, so did Dach.


look at the contract gallagher, price or anderson got. we definitly.overpay for contract....
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 48
#42
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Quoting: Wreckless
Asked and answered. Peace out. ✌️


You do realize that, even if the cap only rises to $83.5M this summer, that an $8M AAV is less of a percentage of the cap (9.58%) than what Suzuki's deal was when he signed(9.66%), right?

This just feels like such an arbitrary line in the sand to draw, and losing a 45 goal scorer over it just seems needlessly stubborn. And bringing up Pacioretty and Subban as examples of this "philosophy" misses a ton of context:

Patches was 29 when he was traded to Vegas, in the last year of 6x$4.5M, and VGK sent back Tomas Tatar, a 2nd, and your personal hero Nick Suzuki for him.
Subban was 27 and still had 6x$9M left when he was sent to Nashville for Shea Weber ahead of his age-31 season - but both had been perennial Norris candidates for several years before the trade(Subban even won one, as I'm sure you remember.)

Montreal got value back for their veterans as they were getting towards the end of their prime. Yet you're here saying you'd give up a 22 year old Caufield for a 1st/2nd/3rd from any team in the league after a potential 40+ goal season?
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 54
#43
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8x8. Do it, coward
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2 déc. 2022 à 9 h 57
#44
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Quoting: Wreckless
If his agent is advising him to work against the interests of our collective team, he won’t be here long. Personally, I’d imagine that his agent is smarter than that.

Also, there are more important considerations for a GM than just one year production.


The agent is going to look out for Caulfield's interest and his own. I just looked up who the agent was and all I have to say is gl to Hughes: it's Pat Brisson. Should check out his puckpedia if you don't already know who he represents.

I will say though that Kyle Connor is a good comparable for Hughes, he got 8.96% on a 7 year deal, so that's ~7.5m for 86.5m cap. However, Caulfield has 40G and 70 pts in 100 games, Robertson had 58G and 124P in 125G. So, so far the goal rate is 0.4 vs 0.46 and pts are 0.7 vs 0.992 both in Robertson's favor. Connor's numbers when he signed were 0.376 G rate and 0.719 pts rate. So, Hughes should be able to offer more than 7.5mx7/8 (Connor's hit adjusted for 86.5m cap), and less than Suzuki even if Brisson argues that Caufield is better than Connor. However, I think Brisson will push for a 7-7.5mx4 deal with the final year being 9m+ in salary so that he has a 9m+ QO just like he negotiated for Robertson.

Edit: I took way too long to type this out, looks like some of this stuff was mentioned already.
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2 déc. 2022 à 10 h 29
#45
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Maybe I'm not worth the time/effort/headspace trying to reason with the unreasonable, but in my reality, this is how I process :

https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/forward/1-15/7000000-14500000


Caufield is worth 8.0+ M$

It's not guaranteed that he tries to get the absolute maximum but if that's what he wants, his agent would suck at his job to not get it.
2 déc. 2022 à 11 h 23
#46
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Wreckless
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Quoting: drambui
look at the contract gallagher, price or anderson got. we definitly.overpay for contract....


Interesting three players you chose:

Second contract for Gallagher, 6x$3.75mm.
Price 6x$6.5mm.
Anderson 3x$1.85mm.

All excellent deals. All team first guys. All still with the team. What a coincidence!

UFA deals and RFA deals are not the same animal.
2 déc. 2022 à 11 h 34
#47
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Wreckless
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Quoting: Xspyrit
Maybe I'm not worth the time/effort/headspace trying to reason with the unreasonable, but in my reality, this is how I process :

https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/forward/1-15/7000000-14500000


Caufield is worth 8.0+ M$

It's not guaranteed that he tries to get the absolute maximum but if that's what he wants, his agent would suck at his job to not get it.


If he wants more than Suzuki, he can probably get it somewhere. Won’t be in Montreal.
2 déc. 2022 à 11 h 35
#48
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Quoting: Wreckless
If he wants more than Suzuki, he can probably get it somewhere. Won’t be in Montreal.


Why not? He's quite dangerous in the offensive zone with the puck on his stick

When you have good players you need to sign them, like they did with Suzuki
2 déc. 2022 à 11 h 37
#49
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Quoting: GMBL
The agent is going to look out for Caulfield's interest and his own. I just looked up who the agent was and all I have to say is gl to Hughes: it's Pat Brisson. Should check out his puckpedia if you don't already know who he represents.

I will say though that Kyle Connor is a good comparable for Hughes, he got 8.96% on a 7 year deal, so that's ~7.5m for 86.5m cap. However, Caulfield has 40G and 70 pts in 100 games, Robertson had 58G and 124P in 125G. So, so far the goal rate is 0.4 vs 0.46 and pts are 0.7 vs 0.992 both in Robertson's favor. Connor's numbers when he signed were 0.376 G rate and 0.719 pts rate. So, Hughes should be able to offer more than 7.5mx7/8 (Connor's hit adjusted for 86.5m cap), and less than Suzuki even if Brisson argues that Caufield is better than Connor. However, I think Brisson will push for a 7-7.5mx4 deal with the final year being 9m+ in salary so that he has a 9m+ QO just like he negotiated for Robertson.

Edit: I took way too long to type this out, looks like some of this stuff was mentioned already.


If the Habs were short sighted, and kept Caufield on a line with a center not named Suzuki, and Caufield’s production this season was lower, would that make him worth less?

Answer: no.

Overvalue short term statistics at your own peril.
2 déc. 2022 à 11 h 38
#50
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Wreckless
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Quoting: Xspyrit
Why not? He's quite dangerous in the offensive zone with the puck on his stick

When you have good players you need to sign them, like they did with Suzuki


Yep, you need to sign them to deals that work for the player and the team. If Caufield thinks he’s more valuable to the Canadiens than Suzuki, then we don’t want him. Same reason why we traded Subban and Pacioretty.

Personally, I think (and hope) that Caufield is smarter than that (and most of the short sighted “fans” among the capfriendly commentariat).
 
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