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Xspyrit

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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 13 heures
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>That value is akin to a high 1st and a mid 2nd.

Because Järventie is worth about a mid-2nd rounder right now, same as the Wild's own Adam Beckman. He's a B-level prospect whose in the Boom or Bust category. Same as Beckman.

Both of which were taken in the 3rd rounds of their respective drafts. Their value has gone up since being drafted but not by that much. B-level prospects typically get valued in the mid to late 2nd round range after being drafted and they certainly aren't getting back a late 1st. Only A-tier prospects are worth 1sts after being drafted.</div></div>

Why would Järventie only be worth a "mid-2nd rounder"? I mean, he was an early 2nd round pick and had a pretty good start in the Liiga, as a teenager. The hype was kinda going wild but it slowed down after that. He still had a pretty good rookie season. I'll copy/paste some Finnish comps we digged in the past in case you'd be curious to see it

Mikko Rantanen 2014-2015 (3 months older than Jarventie):
56 GP 9 G 19 A 28 PTS

Patrick Laine 2015-2016 (8 months younger than Jarventie):
46 GP 17 G 16 A 33 PTS

Aleksander Barkov 2012-2013 (13 months younger than Jarventie):
53 GP 21 G 27 A 48 PTS

Kaapo Kakko 2018-2019 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 22 G 16 A 38 PTS

Roope Hintz 2016-2017 (3 months younger than Jarventie):
42 GP 5 G 12 A 17 PTS

Jesperi Kotkaniemi 2017-18 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
57 GP 10 G 19 A 29 PTS

Markus Granlund 2011-12 (4 months older than Jarventie):
47 GP 15 G 19 A 34 PTS

Jori Lehterä 2006-07 (8 months older than Jarventie):
28 GP 6 G 6 A 12 PTS

Olli Jokinen 1996-97 (4 months younger than Jarventie):
50 GP 14 G 27 A 41 PTS

Mikael Granlund 2009-10 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
43 GP 13 G 27 A 40 PTS

Teemu Pulkkinen 2010-11 (7 months older than Jarventie):
55 GP 18 G 36 A 54 PTS

Teuvo Teräväinen 2012-13 (1 month younger than Jarventie):
44 GP 13 G 18 A 31 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 40 GP 11 G 7 A 18 PTS in 2011-12)

Artturi Lehkonen 2012-13 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 14 G 16 A 30 PTS

Mikko Koivu 2001‑02 (5 months older than Jarventie):
48 GP 4 G 3 A 7 PTS

Valtteri Filppula 2003‑04 (17 months older than Jarventie):
49 GP 5 G 13 A 18 PTS

Sebastian Aho 2015‑16 (same age):
45 GP 20 G 25 A 45 PTS

Joonas Donskoi 2010‑11 (4 months older than Jarventie):
52 GP 16 G 11 A 27 PTS

Joel Armia 2010‑11 (10 months younger than Jarventie):
48 GP 18 G 11 A 29 PTS

Kasperi Kapanen 2014‑15 (same age):
41 GP 11 G 10 A 21 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 47 GP 7 G 7 A 14 PTS in 2013-14)


He's a guy that was favorably compared by Ilves coach to Roope Hintz...

Last season, his overall game progressed well and he finished 5th in scoring for the B-Sens. He was a "young" 19 y/o all season, heck he is still 19 right now. He is like almost a year younger than Jack Quinn for example. We'll have a better idea on his potential with his 20 y/o season but I don't think any Sens fan would be happy with a 2nd round pick in return. Even a late first round pick, it's debatable. Remember, the 2020 draft class was pretty good

Edit : you probably looked at Beckman and Jarventie stats in the AHL last season thinking they're a similar caliber of players? Please keep in mind that Jarventie is 21 months younger... If he doesn't progress in the next 2 seasons then yes he will be a " B-level prospect"
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 18 h 13
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 18 h 2
Sujet: 22-23 test
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>I mean, not to nitpick. And I certainly don't mean any disrespect.

But the Sens <strong>had</strong> a insane prospect pool, they don't anymore. It's still incredibly solid, but it isn't as good as it was for the last couple of years. The graduations of Stutzle, Batherson, and Formenten have dropped them in comparison to other teams and allowed them to be surpassed in the rankings.

They were ranked the 13th best prospect pool in January by Scott Wheeler of the Athletic, and that's being kept afloat by Sanderson, Pinto, and Greig.

Currently, it's a good prospect pool, not a great one.</div></div>

No obviously, the pool has already peaked. This is how we voted to 2020 pool after the draft (but age is on December 26th 2021)

1- Tim Stutzle (19 y/o)
2- Jake Sanderson (19 y/o)
3- Drake Batherson (23 y/o)
4- Josh Norris (22 y/o)
5- Erik Brannstrom (22 y/o)
6- Logan Brown (23 y/o)
7- Jacob Bernard-Docker (21 y/o)
8- Alex Formenton (22 y/o)
9- Shane Pinto (21 y/o)
10- Ridly Greig (19 y/o)
11- Roby Jarventie (19 y/o)
12- Rudolfs Balcers (24 y/o)
13- Vitali Abramov (23 y/o)
14- Joey Daccord (25 y/o)
15- Lassi Thomson (21 y/o)
16- Egor Sokolov (21 y/o)
17- Tyler Kleven (19 y/o)
18- Filip Chlapik (24 y/o)
19- Mads Søgaard (19 y/o)
20- Filip Gustavsson (23 y/o)
21- Max Lajoie ( y/o)
22- Kevin Mandolese ( y/o)
23- Angus Crookshank ( y/o)
24- Maxence Guénette ( y/o)
25- Jonathan Davidsson ( y/o)
26- Leevi Merilainen ( y/o)
27- Jonny Tychonick ( y/o)
28- Philippe Daoust ( y/o)
29- Parker Kelly ( y/o)
30- Mark Kastelic ( y/o)

Viktor Lodin (21 y/o) wasn't even ranked top-30. He came over NA at the end of the season, scored 5 goals in his first 10 AHL games to help his team qualify for the playoffs. That pool was insanity. A lot of guys graduated recently (Stutzle, Batherson, Norris, Brannstrom, Formenton, Balcers mainly) but the current pool is still very good and probably underrated (but agreed that other pools surpassed it now, not to the point of being 13th though)

From TSN's April list, Jake Sanderson was ranked #2 and Ridly Greig was ranked #18

https://www.tsn.ca/owen-power-top-nhl-prospects-1.1784400

Shane Pinto was not ranked but pretty much all Sens fan have him above Greig so you have 3 guys who might be top-20 worthy on many of these lists. But after that "big 3", there's still several quality prospects

Which teams have 3 high end prospects like that? I see Buffalo, Dallas and NJ having the same kind of top-3?

Ostapchuk : 39th OA pick from 2021, just had a huge coming out party in the WHL playoffs, he was still just 18 y/o
JBD : He won't score a lot of points in the NHL but could be quite good defensively. I see him as a 2nd pairing version of Jonas Brodin
Sogaard : 6'7 athletic goalie, "goalie of the future" IMO
Jarventie : early 2nd round pick in 2020, did very well in the pros as a teenager so far
Thomson : many started to write him off but he has been completely changing the tune after coming to NA. He looked quite promising this season
Kleven : Sens traded up to get him and based on his development, you understand why some teams really wanted him
Sokolov : If this guy was a good skater, he'd be a Top-6 NHL forward already. He won't be as a good as Mark Stone but could bring some qualities to a NHL team. High skill level and a heavy shot
Boucher : Most Sens fans didn't like this pick, 10th OA from last year, not even in our top-10 lol

Lodin, Crookshank, Gustavsson, Kastelic and Kelly are also pretty decent prospects. And with a few darkhorses like Daoust, Guenette, Johansson and Merilainen, the top-20 is still pretty solid. Not much depth after that though. Not even ranking recent 2nd round pick Ben Roger in the top-20 lol
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 17 h 23
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Yeah when you bring nothing but name calling to the table it beyond clear to see you have no idea what you are talking about. Every comment you've made has had an insult in it for 0 reason. Your opinion is worthless, specifically because of that attitude. He got carried, that team falls apart and so do is numbers. You havent shown anything, let alone numbers to prove me wrong. I called it then, i called it 2 years ago when he was on the block, im calling it now.</div></div>

"<em>what a ridiculous statement</em>" is NOT name calling or an insult. Maybe for you, but not for grown up men.

This thread is the PERFECT example why PEOPLE LIKE YOU are the problem on the internet

1) you make a ridiculous statement, you're getting called out for it
2) you double down on it
3) you get a 100% rational answer (post #8) as to why your statement was totally unfair
4) then you TRIPLE down on it but not only that, you start being condescending towards Matt Murray with that super **** post #9.

At that point, you lost any chance of respect and credibility, you totally deserved to be treated like the piece of tool you are.

So yes I like to call a spade a spade and that's exactly what I did post #10 : "doubling down on stupidity I see"

Then you start crying like a little girl about "name calling" and continue with your baseless crap

What I said in post #8 should have been sufficient, why would I need to bring in stats when they are easily accessible?

He dominated the AHL at 20 y/o, then started dominating the NHL at 21 and 22 y/o (stole the job twice from Fleury to go on and win the Cup as a 21 y/o). Then injuries derailed him the following season. He bounced back with a very good season in 2018-19 (0.919 SV%, Top-10 in GSAA). He has been up and down since but even in Ottawa, he had stretches of dominance when healthy but the thing is it doesn't last very long as he has been the most injury prone NHL player of the last 5 years.

But yeah I am clearly not providing anything while "<em>this guy sucks</em>" is an adult argument? Always the same story with simpletons. Good at trashing other people, no sign of any intelligible argument whatsoever.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Youre ancedotal "i played beer league and im a seeker... I mean im in contact with players" means literally nothing</div></div>

lol I never said that fool

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>You've provided nothing either</div></div>

The only argument he made was that Murray was carried... which is not even true... Pens had a solid system but that defense was far from being their strength

Anyway, not even sure why all of this needs to be debated. For any NHLer and ex NHLer, or simply people who played the game and understand the game, Matt Murray was pretty much elite in his first 3 pro seasons. At some point the eye test should be sufficient to avoid the non-sense he has been arguing about
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Knuckl3s</b></div><div>Lol, you still didn't answer my question</div></div>

I'm sorry but the only question was "<em>how is Pearson not needed?</em>", no?

This has been answered in my first post (#36) already...

"<em>They have no spot/use for Pearson and they will want a bit more time for Boucher to become something. It is just plain stupid to trade an asset at lowest value</em>"

Second post too (#38) :

"<em>Pearson is owed 7.25 M$ and is not even needed</em>"

Third post (#40) :

"<em>Sens want to acquire a CLEAR Top-6 Winger too, who would push Joseph on the 3rd line and White out of a roster spot (buy out?) Greig, Crookshank, Lodin, Sokolov, Jarventie waiting for a call-up</em>"


Why would they acquire Pearson (3.625 average salary the next seasons) when they are probably going to buy out Colin White as there is no more spot for him in the top-9 and would rather save the money?

What else do you need to understand?

Maybe this? I actually just wrote this in another ACGM :

"<em>all of Formenton, Pinto, Brown, Joseph and White would need to be on the 3rd line if we're trying to build a championship team. Even Ridly Greig should start on that line as he is just 19 y/o. He will be very hard to keep OFF the team IMO. Even worse than that, there's several other good young players who will be waiting on that kind of opportunity, like Viktor Lodin who scored 5 goals in his first 10 AHL games (huge goals as the team was trying to clinch for the playoffs)</em>"


Or is it just the "sandpaper" aspect? Keep in mind, most of these guys were 22 y/o and younger last season

You mentioned Tkachuk and Brown but Formenton is probably the biggest SOB in the lineup. He is mean and always looking for trouble
Stutzle, Norris and Batherson are skilled players but are not pushovers (great size)
Joseph and Pinto, same thing, very good on the forecheck
That 4th line is actually major sandpaper, Kastelic is very strong and kelly is a major pest. Watson is known for that too

Greig and Crookshank could also bring that in spades.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bluspy88</b></div><div>I guess it depends what you are expecting from him and what your team needs. JVR will score at least 20, more likely 25 goals and he is a good PP player. I’d say despite the abysmal PHI power play G and JVR (and sort of York later) were always pretty noticeable and making chances.

To a team like Arizona, he’s just a body. But for Ottawa, who wants to make the playoffs and not necessarily win the cup, he’s a pretty reliable veteran leader (he definitely is seen as part of the leadership such as being the NHLPA rep) and scorer. But his contract and âge make me think it won’t be more than a third.</div></div>

They need a CLEAR CUT Top-6 winger, someone who will fit in well with Stutzle and score 60+ points (not sure JVR still can do that). Also, looking at his last 2 seasons combined, 46% of his goals were on the PP and the thing is that if everyone is healthy, the PP #1 is a bit crowded already... Stutzle, Norris, Batherson and Tkachuk, Chabot and Brannstrom. There's also several more players who will need PP time.

In short, they need an offensive winger who will help out Stutzle at Even Strength

I like the veteran and leadership part though. Seriously, I would much much rather have him as a backup plan than cheap options like Ennis and Gaudette, but the Sens really need to do better than this. For example :

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Formenton - Stutzle - Fiala
Joseph - Pinto - Brown

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>JVR, even though old, has little injury history and is a reliable pt producer. He once again got his 20+ goals in PHI, even on a team who couldnt score, from the 3rd line with some PP time. Hes a reliable and relatively good risk for is age. I would say at the TDL, he'd more than make back his value with some retention. I would say he fetches a 3rd from a team needing his type of production and vet leadership, and at deadline with retention gets back a 2nd a bit more</div></div>

Yeah I also think he becomes a positive asset with some retention. Best bet for Philly would be to trade him at the deadline. They could even eat up 50% to make him more attractive.

But as being discussed already, not the right fit for Ottawa IMO. Not good enough anymore for the Stutzle line, not really needed for the PP (assuming Norris and other top guns are healthy) and no spot on the 3rd line

Basically, all of Formenton, Pinto, Brown, Joseph and White would need to be on the 3rd line if we're trying to build a championship team. Even Ridly Greig should start on that line as he is just 19 y/o. He will be very hard to keep OFF the team IMO. Even worse than that, there's several other good young players who will be waiting on that kind of opportunity, like Viktor Lodin who scored 5 goals in his first 10 AHL games (huge goals as the team was trying to clinch for the playoffs)

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sk540</b></div><div>Yeah but that's kind of moot with JVR as it's the last year of his deal and OTT isn't going to be contending this year or next. They have the space and are still getting the assets, plus JVR still is a 20 goal scorer in this league. He definitely has some value and just doesn't fit in with the Flyers currently, especially with Torts at the helm.</div></div>

"<em>are still getting the assets</em>" : not sure what that part meant

Look all I said above to have a deeper answer but Sens NEED to take a big step forward this year. Chabot was in his rookie year when the ship sank in 2018, they owe him
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 15 h 51
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rf9</b></div><div>1) ostpachuk didn’t even have 50 points in the whl this year, had a great first round, and was just a ppg player during the second half of the playoffs. trade him well he had value to bring in a guy who is still young and was on pace for 60 points this year.
I also believe that chicago would want some decent picks as they are starting a rebuild.
2) I would rather see us move murray to give the young goalies a chance to play behind forsberg.
3) I see what you mean but arizona has been getting some serious offers and the sens will have to make a pretty great offer to get arizona to finally pull the trigger. I could also see greig coming in and filling the role that formenton played if we do find a player to replace him on the top 9.
4) 1 year of drouins contact for him to prove himself. the guy has amazing talent but has been playing in sheltered roles for his hole career. could possibly resign him for cheap after his contract is up. White also does not fit within the top 9 if the sens want to bring in another top 6 forward. Boucher was the prospect i chose to throw in just because of my personal bias, could be any mid range prospect or mid round pick.</div></div>

1) Don't worry I have been calling out their whole 2021 draft like crazy (and that includes Ostapchuk), every pick was a significant reach (reference in the draft is Bob McKenzie's list). However, Ostapchuk who has a pretty nice skillset (we liked him at rookie camp+) was always a possible candidate for a major breakout and that's what he did in the playoffs. The fact that he was still 18 y/o is what makes it legit. Sure it could be a "flash in the pan" but we don't expect that. This is a recent comment from a guy with scouting experience that I have been reading since 2005 :

" <em>Ostapchuk has everything you want, size, skating, smarts and skill. Had a rough start production wise, but even if his playoffs never took off, he is in line for a very big 19 year old season. Would be surprised if he wasn’t on Team Canada and putting up 35g/40g and 85+ points next season.</em> "

Now there's also the fact that Dylan Strome is a center (we don't have spots for Centers, Colin White is out of a job) and is not nearly as efficient on the wing, mainly due to poor skating. He doesn't fit the up-tempo style the Sens are trying to develop. If I "sell high" on Ostapchuk, it would have to be for another target

2) That he is moved or not, they don't have to play him... Forsberg is going to be the #1 assuming he plays similar to last season and remains healthy. Murray might get some start but based on the last 5 years, he might get injured very fast and could even end up on LTIR. Leave the situation resolve by itself. Also Sogaard, Mandolese and Merilainen are very young and need development, leave them in the AHL/OHL. Gustavsson will play don't worry

3) Greig might start as a 3rd liner but will rapidly work his way up (IMO). He's a 3rd liner if his development completely stalls, but he's only 19 y/o... clear top-6 forward in my evaluation. I want to have both Formenton and Greig, they each bring enticing skillsets that would help the Sens build something special. But you're not wrong at all, Chychrun has tremendous value, even though he becomes UFA in 3 seasons. There's a few problems here and without going deep in analysis, with Chabot, Sanderson and Zub, don't know if the Sens will be able to afford another 8+ M$ D-man. Plus, I know he can play RD but it's not his natural position and he's also not the "type" of D-man we need as he is actually quite similar to Chabot. We need a Cernak/Parayko/Carlo/Methot type to play with Chabot. So based on all that, giving up the 7th OA pick AND Formenton (plus other quality pieces) makes me unwell. Have to find the right balance in terms of future AAV, filling the exact need and assets paid to acquire the player.

4) ok so you understand why it can't and won't be Tyler Boucher in that situation. I like the fact that Drouin has only 1 year left but like I said, Colin White is an EASY buyout, very cheap. Drouin might have skill but the Sens don't need him. They won't be good if he takes a top-6 spot, I'd much rather spend the 7th OA pick on Kevin Fiala. It's hard to explain but Drouin is like a Mike Hoffman type but without the elite shot. He is just too far from being a complete player or even a 2-way player. You can shelter him but based on Hoffman and Duclair both leaving the Sens organization in recent years, I really doubt he's their "type"


<img class="for_img" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda25ceb8-3fd3-4b80-9b2e-0cf614c95884_1280x818.png" alt="https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda25ceb8-3fd3-4b80-9b2e-0cf614c95884_1280x818.png">

Good discussion!
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 9 h 56
Sujet: 22-23 test
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rf9</b></div><div>you think the sens will give away there best 2 way forward for a cap dumb and a decent prospect. just because edmonton writers have that as a good trade for them, the trade makes 0 sense from the sens prospective.
Sens are in a win now mindset finally, so why would they add a 4th line grinder and a prospect well getting rid of a guy who plays on there second line and top pk. Ott would be looking for a roster add for there top 6, like a pulijarvi or yamamoto</div></div>

Connor Brown is so much better than Yamamoto, it's not even funny. Yamamoto became one of the most overrated players in the league when he produced some points playing McDavid and Draisaitl in that 27 games stretch. Don't worry, Brown would produce more in that situation too

I like Puljujarvi but he hasn't produced anywhere near top-6 numbers yet, despite opportunities

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Frankus_maximus</b></div><div>Let Elliot Frreidman know then. Post his reply here.

"As per Elliotte Friedman, Ottawa Senators forward Connor Brown is currently leaning towards the idea that he’ll test free agency when his current contract with the Senators expires. As such, the Sens might have to consider a trade and they’ll be plenty of interest if the team puts him out there on the market."</div></div>

Wait so you read this (plenty of interest) and you figured out that what that Oilers fan who posted that "article" (lol) proposed was actually realistic?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EccE</b></div><div>A quote from the Fiala-article: "Would a first-round pick and a quality prospect be a reasonable package for Fiala based on the Reinhart return?"

Angus Crookshank really doesn't qualify as a quality prospect.</div></div>

He's actually pretty good, models his game after Gallagher. He had 16 pts in 19 games when he started in the AHL and received a lot of praise for coach Troy Mann. He continued to impress at the following rookie camp and preseason but unfortunately got injured long term. Sens have had an insane prospect pool the last few years that's why he completely flew under the radar.

I wouldn't trade him as a throw in or anything like that. I would in a package like that but if not, I'd much rather keep him. He fits the Tkachuk/Formenton relentless style Sens are trying to build.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 9 h 22
Sujet: 22-23 test
Also, that would be very Dorion like (useless) to spend all that money and term on players they don't need (Vatrano, De Haan and Husso)

These 3 contracts could handcuff them in the near future and make them lose a guy like Pinto or Greig because no more money.

This would pretty much put the nail in the coffin of the disastrous Dorion reign.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SNipeSHowInc</b></div><div>Leafs decline, if anything Ottawa is giving up a bigger asset to get rid of that contract even with 50% retained</div></div>

They will want to send Mrazek the other way

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Frankus_maximus</b></div><div>Didn't read the article did ya sparky? Write the guy who wrote article telling him why you are right and he is wrong. Post their reply here after. We would all love to see it.</div></div>

I read that article and the reasoning was PLAIN stupid. You can tell him if you want, I don't care.

Ottawa don't WANT anything to do with Kassian.

The guy says "<em>The Oilers would have to add a sweetener to the deal</em>" which is right but assuming the Sens are "ok" with Tullio (who would be very low on the Sens depth chart) and a 5th for taking on Kassian contract (DUMP)


Where's the ****en value for Connor Brown? :tearsofjoy


This is a GARBAGE proposal, there's no other way to put it.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>Zero chance I'd do the Brown and Chicago trades. Zaitsev might cost a 2nd to offload, if its more than that I'd just buy him out. Tullio *might* offset the negative value of Kassian so you're giving Brown to Edmonton for free.</div></div>

Damn I didn't see that Chicago deal

I love Reichel but Sokolov, Gustavsson and 2 more 2nd round picks, with one being early?

Let's go another route
Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 16 h 1
Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 15 h 50
Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 15 h 37
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