Forums/Armchair-GM

Billys mistakes

Créé par: SimonSelaars3
Date de création initiale: 15 nov. 2022
Publié: 15 nov. 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Wild du Minnesota
Description
Bill Guerin’s Resume

Mistakes :

• Resigning Goligoski
• Resigning Greenway
• Keeping Dumba over Fiala
• Thinking the entire team can play anywhere in the lineup
• Trading for Jost

Wins

• Signing Gaudreau
• Signing Hartman
• Every draft since 2020 (He can thank Judd Brackett)
• Resigning Ek

Summary

He’s been average in my opinion, yes the Suter and Parise buyouts influenced a good amount of his decisions and at the end of the day that move was made in the best interest of the team. But he hasn’t done enough roster wise to indicate this years team will be anything but average. I think we cut him a lot of slack for “his” draft success which is actually Judd Brackett’s draft success. That being said, he needs to shake up this roster if he ever wants a different outcome other than a 1st round exit. This lineup consists of 4 legitimate Top 6 forwards, the defenseman are fine but not impressive and the goalies have been surprisingly good since their terrible start.

All in all this is a great year to be bad and that’s my mantra for the rest of this season.

#TheRaceForBedardIsOn
Transactions
1.
MIN
TOR
  1. Dumba, Matt
  2. Foligno, Marcus
  3. Goligoski, Alex
  4. Greenway, Jordan
  5. Hartman, Ryan
  6. Jost, Tyson
Détails additionnels:
Players that need to go within the next year or two, yes I realize that this is essentially all of the teams sandpaper but if all you can contribute is sandpaper then you’re not very effective in todays NHL.
2.
MIN
  1. Choix de 2023 ronde en 1e (VGK)
VGK
  1. Spurgeon, Jared
Détails additionnels:
I love Spurg but he turns 33 in two weeks and regression is bound to happen at some point, if you can net a 1st for him then I would strongly consider moving him especially if the Wild are out of the playoffs a few months from now around deadline time. Addison thriving and Faber/Lambos being on the brink of playing in the NHL makes this move hurt a little bit less.
Rachats de contrats
  • Zach Parise: 6 371 794 $
  • Ryan Suter: 6 371 794 $
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGE1E RONDE2E RONDE3E RONDE4E RONDE5E RONDE6E RONDE7E RONDE
2023
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2024
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2025
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
1782 500 000 $54 689 421 $0 $1 532 500 $27 810 579 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Kaprizov, Kirill
9 000 000 $
AG
UFA - 4
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Eriksson Ek, Joel
5 250 000 $
C
UFA - 7
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Zuccarello, Mats
6 000 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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Beckman, Adam
894 167 $
AG
RFA - 2
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Gaudreau, Frédérick
1 200 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Boldy, Matthew
880 833 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
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Dewar, Connor
800 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 2
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Rossi, Marco
863 333 $
C
RFA - 3
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Duhaime, Brandon
750 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
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Shaw, Mason
750 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 1
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Steel, Sam
825 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Brodin, Jonas
6 000 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Addison, Calen
795 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Fleury, Marc-André
3 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Middleton, Jacob
2 450 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Gustavsson, Filip
787 500 $
G
RFA - 1
Logo de Wild du Minnesota
Merrill, Jon
1 200 000 $
DG
UFA - 3

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15 nov. 2022 à 23 h 45
#1
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Leafs will take Greenway but that’s about it
15 nov. 2022 à 23 h 48
#2
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How in the absolute f*** has Greenway been a mistake?

He's been a stud since he signed.
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15 nov. 2022 à 23 h 52
#3
Owly
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Leafs pass all of those players are garbage
15 nov. 2022 à 23 h 52
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Quoting: RazWild
How in the absolute f*** has Greenway been a mistake?

He's been a stud since he signed.


He’s a non factor in almost every single game, he’s carried by Foligno and Ek, without them he’s a just big body on the 4th line. He can barely shoot the puck and his passing is that of a high school player. He also doesn’t deserve to be making 3 million a year.
15 nov. 2022 à 23 h 56
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
He’s a non factor in almost every single game, he’s carried by Foligno and Ek, without them he’s a just big body on the 4th line. He can barely shoot the puck and his passing is that of a high school player. He also doesn’t deserve to be making 3 million a year.


If that's what you think, then last years numbers of them being the best shutdown line in hockey doesn't happen.

Because if it was true, the team wouldn't like like sh*t right now and clearly wouldn't look like they've both missed his presence and that line.
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16 nov. 2022 à 0 h 1
#6
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Quoting: RazWild
If that's what you think, then last years numbers of them being the best shutdown line in hockey doesn't happen.

Because if it was true, the team wouldn't like like sh*t right now and clearly wouldn't look like they've both missed his presence and that line.


They were a shutdown line because Ek and Foligno carried the line, like I stated above. There is a reason Ek and Foligno were both top 10 in Selke voting and Greenway was no where to be found, not to mention he only managed to put up 27 points with two players who had career years.

He’s nothing more than a big bodied 4th liner playing with two of the best defensive forwards in the league.
16 nov. 2022 à 0 h 16
#7
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Alex G and spurgeon are going nowhere. They aren't waiving. Also, Marcus foligno is amazing, and so is greenway who was given an extension
16 nov. 2022 à 0 h 20
#8
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Quoting: KobG
Alex G and spurgeon are going nowhere. They aren't waiving. Also, Marcus foligno is amazing, and so is greenway who was given an extension


Anddddd he’s back with another new username
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16 nov. 2022 à 0 h 42
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
They were a shutdown line because Ek and Foligno carried the line, like I stated above. There is a reason Ek and Foligno were both top 10 in Selke voting and Greenway was no where to be found, not to mention he only managed to put up 27 points with two players who had career years.

He’s nothing more than a big bodied 4th liner playing with two of the best defensive forwards in the league.


Foligno and JEE were a middling 3rd liners without Greenway. Greenway made both of them better.
GREEF: 25GA/5GA, 430:01 ToI, 60.4
JEE/Foligno: 9GF/10GA, 200:39 ToI
JEE/Greenway: 5GF/4GA 88:13 ToI
Foligno/Greenway: 7GF/5GA, 115:42 ToI
Greenway was 59th (tied) in 5v5 assists in the last 2 seasons. In a 5v5 A/60 he was tied with Barkov for 35th (min 1100 ToI filter).

I don't like many of Billy G's moves, but Greenway was a good signing. My list of mistakes is much longer than yours.
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16 nov. 2022 à 0 h 49
#10
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Foligno is a great player and personality but if you can net a good return, I absolutely get it

I would've moved Greenway last deadline but we can't ignore that Ek and Moose are at their best when he plays with them

I wanted the team to keep Fiala, but with the Buyouts (far better option than keeping them OR trying to trade them, Suter never would've waived either) and salary cap uncertainty, it made sense

The Goose signing is another move I wouldn't have made with Fiala needing an extension but in a vacuum, it's decent deal

You also left out what has probably been GMBG's best move in the Zucker trade

The Kunin trade was fantastic as well
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 8
#11
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Quoting: C21
Foligno is a great player and personality but if you can net a good return, I absolutely get it

I would've moved Greenway last deadline but we can't ignore that Ek and Moose are at their best when he plays with them

I wanted the team to keep Fiala, but with the Buyouts (far better option than keeping them OR trying to trade them, Suter never would've waived either) and salary cap uncertainty, it made sense

The Goose signing is another move I wouldn't have made with Fiala needing an extension but in a vacuum, it's decent deal

You also left out what has probably been GMBG's best move in the Zucker trade

The Kunin trade was fantastic as well


The Kunin trade was garbage. Bonino was a downgrade and the draft pick hasn't done anything of note.

Pateryn/Cole, getting anything for Dub, Zucker trade, trading up for Wallstedt are his best (non-signing) moves.

The buyouts were the worst thing he did. I want a winning team (without a completely screwed cap), not a locker room that has sleepovers and sings around the camp fire while holding hands.
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 8
#12
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Quoting: wabit
Foligno and JEE were a middling 3rd liners without Greenway. Greenway made both of them better.
GREEF: 25GA/5GA, 430:01 ToI, 60.4
JEE/Foligno: 9GF/10GA, 200:39 ToI
JEE/Greenway: 5GF/4GA 88:13 ToI
Foligno/Greenway: 7GF/5GA, 115:42 ToI
Greenway was 59th (tied) in 5v5 assists in the last 2 seasons. In a 5v5 A/60 he was tied with Barkov for 35th (min 1100 ToI filter).

I don't like many of Billy G's moves, but Greenway was a good signing. My list of mistakes is much longer than yours.


My list is much longer than what I actually listed as well lol. Judd has been the saving grace of Guerin’s tenure, if we weren’t loaded with quality prospects right now Guerin is probably on the hot seat this season and potentially out of a job at the end of the season.

As for Greenway, I agree he makes Ek and Foligno better but are we really going to pay a guy 3 million for 3 years who’s only purpose on the team is to elevate 2 other players while doing little to nothing individually? Either way this years team is far from the reunion of the Greef line away from being a cup contender, and if you’re not contending for a cup then the roster is due for some changes in my opinion.
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 10
#13
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Quoting: wabit
The Kunin trade was garbage. Bonino was a downgrade and the draft pick hasn't done anything of note.

Pateryn/Cole, getting anything for Dub, Zucker trade, trading up for Wallstedt are his best (non-signing) moves.

The buyouts were the worst thing he did. I want a winning team (without a completely screwed cap), not a locker room that has sleepovers and sings around the camp fire while holding hands.


You gotta follow Khusnutdinov more if you think he’s done nothing of note, but I agree Bonino was a downgrade.
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16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 23
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
My list is much longer than what I actually listed as well lol. Judd has been the saving grace of Guerin’s tenure, if we weren’t loaded with quality prospects right now Guerin is probably on the hot seat this season and potentially out of a job at the end of the season.

As for Greenway, I agree he makes Ek and Foligno better but are we really going to pay a guy 3 million for 3 years who’s only purpose on the team is to elevate 2 other players while doing little to nothing individually? Either way this years team is far from the reunion of the Greef line away from being a cup contender, and if you’re not contending for a cup then the roster is due for some changes in my opinion.


$3m is a fair/good deal for what Greenway is as a player and what he adds to the lineup. He is really good at puck possession and opens up the ice for the rest of the team. He didn't just trip over his skates to get those assists. Size is something that can't be taught, and is desperately needed for this Wild team.

The team is a 1C (and health) away from being a cup contender.

Kap/Horvat (Toews, Larkin)/Zucc
Greenway/JEE/Boldy
Foligno/Freddy G/Hartman
Shaw/Dewar/Duhaime (maybe a TDL 4th liner pickup)

The d-corps and goalies look to be good enough.
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 27
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Quoting: wabit
$3m is a fair/good deal for what Greenway is as a player and what he adds to the lineup. He is really good at puck possession and opens up the ice for the rest of the team. He didn't just trip over his skates to get those assists. Size is something that can't be taught, and is desperately needed for this Wild team.

The team is a 1C (and health) away from being a cup contender.

Kap/Horvat (Toews, Larkin)/Zucc
Greenway/JEE/Boldy
Foligno/Freddy G/Hartman
Shaw/Dewar/Duhaime (maybe a TDL 4th liner pickup)

The d-corps and goalies look to be good enough.


Based off what all those players did last year I’d agree with you but none of those players that had career years last season have shown anything to indicate that they’re going to replicate it, and even then, they went on to lose in the 1st round.

Toews hasn’t been a 1C for awhile now, Horvat could be a viable option but if I’m Guerin I’m not trading a 2023 1st to make it happen, and while Larkin is a beautiful thought, he’s never leaving Detroit.
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 30
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
You gotta follow Khusnutdinov more if you think he’s done nothing of note, but I agree Bonino was a downgrade.


He's .5ppg in the KHL this year, and he's another 5'10" LHS C/W. Those are nothing special stats. There is also no guarantee he'll come over play in the AHL (he's not NHL ready). I'd take Kunin on the current team over the lottery ticket.

I also don't put much stock in most prospects in general. So having Judd means nothing to me.
16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 37
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Quoting: wabit
He's .5ppg in the KHL this year, and he's another 5'10" LHS C/W. Those are nothing special stats. There is also no guarantee he'll come over play in the AHL (he's not NHL ready). I'd take Kunin on the current team over the lottery ticket.

I also don't put much stock in most prospects in general. So having Judd means nothing to me.


He’s the highest scoring U21 player in the 2nd hardest league in the world, those are nothing stats to you? He’ll be signed as soon as his KHL contract ends after the 24-25 season. And to top that offense isn’t even his strong suit, he’s an elite defender and a PK ace.

If he were in the AHL right now he’d be flirting with a point per game and would potentially get a call up if someone on the big club were to go down. You should follow prospects more often because it’s about the only thing that has saved Guerin from losing his job, and you know…. Because they’re the future of the franchise.
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16 nov. 2022 à 1 h 43
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
Based off what all those players did last year I’d agree with you but none of those players that had career years last season have shown anything to indicate that they’re going to replicate it, and even then, they went on to lose in the 1st round.

Toews hasn’t been a 1C for awhile now, Horvat could be a viable option but if I’m Guerin I’m not trading a 2023 1st to make it happen, and while Larkin is a beautiful thought, he’s never leaving Detroit.


Have you watched Toews this year? He looks as good as ever.

I'm not sure Larkin stays in DET. It might be home for him, but how long does he want to play for a non-Playoff team? I mean I figured J Hockey was going home to NJD, not signing in CBJ last offseason.

I don't care if they trade this year's 1st, as long as it's Playoff protected. It'll be the same best since '03 noise for the next draft, just like every year.

Actually Greenway's career year wasn't last season. It was the season before.
16 nov. 2022 à 2 h 2
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
He’s the highest scoring U21 player in the 2nd hardest league in the world, those are nothing stats to you? He’ll be signed as soon as his KHL contract ends after the 24-25 season. And to top that offense isn’t even his strong suit, he’s an elite defender and a PK ace.

If he were in the AHL right now he’d be flirting with a point per game and would potentially get a call up if someone on the big club were to go down. You should follow prospects more often because it’s about the only thing that has saved Guerin from losing his job, and you know…. Because they’re the future of the franchise.


If he was in the AHL (or college) I would care. As it stands he does nothing to make the team better during the Kaprizov years. I see dark times ahead when he's shipped off because he won't re-sign in MN.

Most prospects turn into nothing, and over-rated/hyped. It's not worth the investment for me. I only pay a lot of attention to the ones that interest me. Not many 5'10" players interest me unless they have elite skills.
16 nov. 2022 à 2 h 10
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Quoting: wabit
If he was in the AHL (or college) I would care. As it stands he does nothing to make the team better during the Kaprizov years. I see dark times ahead when he's shipped off because he won't re-sign in MN.

Most prospects turn into nothing, and over-rated/hyped. It's not worth the investment for me. I only pay a lot of attention to the ones that interest me. Not many 5'10" players interest me unless they have elite skills.


That’s pretty head scratching considering the majority of our top prospects play outside of the AHL and NCAA. I’m also not sure what your deal is with players that are 5”10 and smaller, size has very little factor in NHL probability especially when it comes to forwards, I’d say at least 50% of the NHLs best players are 5”10 or under.
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16 nov. 2022 à 2 h 14
#21
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Quoting: wabit
Have you watched Toews this year? He looks as good as ever.

I'm not sure Larkin stays in DET. It might be home for him, but how long does he want to play for a non-Playoff team? I mean I figured J Hockey was going home to NJD, not signing in CBJ last offseason.

I don't care if they trade this year's 1st, as long as it's Playoff protected. It'll be the same best since '03 noise for the next draft, just like every year.

Actually Greenway's career year wasn't last season. It was the season before.


Toews looks as good as ever because Chicago is pumping him up to get as much as possible when they trade him this season.

Even if Larkin decides to leave Detroit, we don’t have the money to pay him.

Horvat I like the idea of but like I said, if im Guerin im not giving up a 2023 1st for him. If you kept up with prospects you’d know that essentially every team picking in the 1st round in 2023 has a real shot at an Allstar level player, that’s how good these 2023 draft prospects are.
16 nov. 2022 à 3 h 11
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Quoting: wabit
The Kunin trade was garbage. Bonino was a downgrade and the draft pick hasn't done anything of note.

Pateryn/Cole, getting anything for Dub, Zucker trade, trading up for Wallstedt are his best (non-signing) moves.

The buyouts were the worst thing he did. I want a winning team (without a completely screwed cap), not a locker room that has sleepovers and sings around the camp fire while holding hands.


Call me biased but I would've taken Khusnutdinov top 15 in that draft (before he was a Wild prospect), I was and am VERY high on him and Kunin was no better than Bonino (the cheaper option). The only reason to keep Kunin around was for the fact that he is a righty. That was the most valuable thing he brought to the Wild. So I'd like to be enlightened as to how that's an awful trade

I knew I was missing some moves (even the Staal trade was decent) but what I'd love to hear is how you would've dealt with the Parise/Suter situation. What was better than buying them out?

Suter specifically was never going to waive his NMC so he was staying and not saving us any cap unlike buying him out.

Parise would only waive to play for the Isles, and that trade gauunteed Ladd coming back, which also wouldn't provide cap relief. Even if the Wild were the team gaining assets in that trade, they clearly wouldn't need them. The pool is stacked and taking on any players the Isles even couldnhave added wouldn't have saved any cap or brought the team a cup unless their name was Mathew Barzal.

And I haven't even covered the fact that of either player was moved, if they retired early the Wild really would've been in cap hell, nevermind what we got going on now

Again, not buying them out brings absolutely no cap relief. Oh, and those are 2 roster spots filled as well. Goligoski brings at the very least, similar level play to Suter. (He's better imo)

So please enlighten me as to why the buyouts were in any way a bad idea. Parise and Suter would only hurt the team's chances at a cup lol

The only differences having Parise/Suter brings is less cap space the past 2 seasons and a more toxic room. Neither is a positive
16 nov. 2022 à 3 h 30
#23
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I just want to throw my 2 cents in on a couple of your losses.

First, Dumba vs Fiala was not as simple as pick one to keep and trade the other. Fiala had trade value and also would be very difficult to fit within the cap for the next few years without trading multiple other assets. Dumba had (probably still has) zero trade value and is only under contract until the end of the year. What makes more sense - trade the player who can get you a solid return and not have to dismantle your team or trade the player you probably have to pay to move and have to trade of multiple other pieces over the next 2-3 years to stay under the cap and be able to re-sign RFAs like Addison and Boldy? Keep in mind, we didn't know about the new cap projections until a few weeks ago. This spring/summer, everyone was still under the assumption that we would just be getting another $1 million raise for the next couple years. It wasn't an ideal move, but the dead cap has us backed into a bit of a corner. Had we been able to get Parise and Suter 100% off the books instead of having to do the buyouts, it would be a completely different situation and Fiala would possibly still be here.

Second, trading for Jost made sense at the time. Sturm had just turned down a 5 year deal at $2.5 million per year. Clearly, he was going to be walking for nothing after last season if he wasn't traded. Guerin saw someone with a similar cap hit who could potentially use a change of scenery to help unlock the potential that made him a top 10 draft pick. Obviously Jost has not performed so it doesn't look great. Either way, he turned an expiring asset who clearly was not coming back into another asset. Had Jost come in and not had the worst season of his career so far, we'd be singing a different tune here. I don't think that trade was nearly as bad as others do.
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16 nov. 2022 à 3 h 37
#24
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Modifié 16 nov. 2022 à 3 h 45
Quoting: C21
Call me biased but I would've taken Khusnutdinov top 15 in that draft (before he was a Wild prospect), I was and am VERY high on him and Kunin was no better than Bonino (the cheaper option). The only reason to keep Kunin around was for the fact that he is a righty. That was the most valuable thing he brought to the Wild. So I'd like to be enlightened as to how that's an awful trade


Yeah, it's always fun to listen to a broadcast and hear your 15th overall pick from 6 years ago referred to as "a veteran bottom 6 presence on a young team." Clearly he did not pan out as we had expected or he would still be here. Like you said, outside of being a righty, he didn't bring anything that made me say "damn, he needs to stay here long term."

It always sucks looking back on a pick you aren't too happy with and seeing who was taken soon after that. Chychrun was taken at 16 and Tage Thompson was picked 26th. Either one is obviously a significant upgrade in value over what we had in Kunin. Thompson in particular would be nice as a giant mofo up the middle who can score. It took him a few years to figure it out, but now he's over 1 PPG and ~.7 goals per game on a bad Buffalo team.
C21 a aimé ceci.
16 nov. 2022 à 15 h 44
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Quoting: SimonSelaars3
Every draft since 2020 (He can thank Judd Brackett)


I'm not sure this is far enough along to call it a win. There's only been 1 Guerin drafted player that's recorded an NHL point and that's Rossi who has 1 assist in 17 NHL games.

I'm as bullish on our prospect pool as the next guy, but this feels very premature.
 
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