Giroux at 4M is a pipe dream. Pavelski a few years ago at a similar point in his career got 3 x 6 under a better tax situation. We'll assume Giroux is willing to give the Senators a bit of wiggle room, because he wants to end his career in his hometown. So he signs for the same 3 x 6M that Pavelski did despite Ottawa being much worse tax wise.
I think your other contracts are pretty close, except I am not sure Dorion (if he is still GM) will go 4 years with Joseph. He doesn't usually go that long with second tier players, and when he does, it usually ends up being a mini-albatross for the budget Senators. Assuming they are no longer a budget team due to new owners, I guess it would be possible.
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Josh Norris is a weird case. His shooting percentage is very high, but it also isn't all that much higher than last season (22 percent vs 17 percent). The difference, he is shooting more, A LOT more. I don't know what to make of that in terms of sustainability. I think they will bridge Norris, and hope that if he proves himself to be a 40-50 goal scorer, by the time the bridge comes up, they will be contenders under the best friend of Norris, Brady Tkachuk. If they bridge Norris at 3 years 6 million, in 2025 is he turning down the opportunity to play on a possible playoff team led by his best friend with a big third contract at 8 years 8 million? Since they got Tkachuk locked down, I think they gamble that he will want to stay after being bridged.
The interesting dynamic is that they can sign Stutzle this off season. This creates a lot of strategy about how they handle both players. In terms of notoriety, Stutzle is the more important player. He was taken third overall in a very top heavy draft. He isn't producing like Norris, but he also is playing in the NHL at a much younger age. Josh Norris was still in College in his +2 season, and didn't make the NHL full time until his +4 season. Will Norris and his notoriously difficult agent see it that way? Probably not. At the same time, if the Senators give Norris 8, Stutzle may want more.
The dynamic with Stutzle is almost exactly the same as the one with Jack Hughes when he signed his 8x8 extension 1 year early. Some people criticized the extension as being too much for a player who'd yet to produce at a top line level, but it has paid off for the Devils. if they waited until now, Hughes would cost a lot more than 8 million on an 8 year extension. Once Stutzle is done, if Norris will sign a similar deal (8x8, no signing bonus, 10 team no trade list), get it done. Judging by his agent's past work, he won't sign that contract after an inferior producing Stutzle got 8x8. They will do a 3 year bridge deal with a relatively high QO.
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Montreal is not giving us a 2nd for Colin White. He has negative value. They are also in a position of strength, because White's former agent is their GM. I don't want to use the t word, but they have to have a reasonable idea that if he is bought out they can convince him to sign in Montreal. Ottawa will have a lot of incentive to buyout White, because it will be the last season where he can be bought out at the 1/3rd ratio. I would imagine that the botched trade at the deadline was based around swapping White for one of Montreal's questionable contracts in a change of scenery move. Maybe Drouin? Is it possible that Tampa putting Joseph on the table for Paul might have kiboshed the trade? If Ottawa was going after a roster player from Montreal, they would come with a cap hit. While Joseph is cheap this season, he will cost a few million next season on an extension. So if it was Drouin, Armia, or Hoffman on the table, Dorion may have decided that he liked the prospect of buying out White and using that 22-23 onward cap on Joseph+White's buyout better.
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Gustavsson has no value. He has not shown he can stick in the NHL. He also will no longer be waiver exempt. Which means, if a team acquires him, they risk losing him at the start of the season when he inevitably does not make their team. That would be a really bad move to give up a major asset for him. Oh wait, it's Edmonton, so maybe it is realistic? In all seriousness, he is maybe worth a late round pick. If the Senators are really pushy and get really lucky, maybe they get some condition aspects based on Gustavsson playing in the NHL. Unfortunately, they protected the wrong goalie in expansion. Dorion should have gone with his gut and protected Daccord, who is going to go on to be a star in the NHL within the next few years. Maybe, as soon as next year.
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Your Zaitsev proposal is fair, but I don't think the Senators need to do that. If they have new ownership, add Claude Giroux, and hand out big extensions to all the key players, they will still be below the cap. But I get your Zaitsev proposal is tied to your Marner one.
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Most of what you proposed about is pretty realistic, even if I don't agree with certain aspects or values, but that Marner proposal is just wacky. Marner is a mark for the Maple Leafs, so he is never going to ask for a trade. Marner asking for a trade, and thus forcing the Leafs hand is the only scenario I can see where he is traded for a 3rd overall pick in a ho-hum draft. If Marner was willingly shopped by Toronto, without him wanting out, the ask and the return would both be huge.
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Poehling a aimé ceci.
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