Tied up at two in the second period now!Just a laser from Mason McTavish (#Ducks). What a shot, bar down. pic.twitter.com/r0VHiIeqTe

— Matt Drake (@DrakeMT) June 12, 2022

Oh, the Ducks are going to be fun to watch

I think there’s a better chance of Kasper going top 10 than slipping to 25 lol, I can almost guarantee he’s gone by then, he’s been rising up a ton of draft boards and is probably regarded as the 4th best centre available after Wright, Cooley, and Gauthier (it seems like he’s leap-frogged Nazar for a lot of scouts). Geekie isn’t a great skater but I think he’s pretty clearly a higher end prospect than guys like Beck, Hughes, and Bystedt. Like Geekie should be top 20, those guys are 2nd round pick calibre imo. I’d go for Kulich as my #1 realistic target if I was the Leafs, with Ostlund as the backup choice. I think trading back wouldn’t be bad, but I don’t think they kept their 1st to trade back. They need to draft a guy that can realistically make the team in 2-3 years and provide some ELC value, which you can’t necessarily expect from someone in the early 2nd, and even when they do make it, they won’t be as good. I’d expect them to trade back with their 3rd, or if they end up getting a 2nd or 3rd for Kerfoot prior to the draft, they might turn that into two selections, just to add some quantity to the pipeline, but imo they should keep their 1st and take a centre.

To me I would like Toronto to do this

Factoring in Kerfoot getting traded for a 2nd (Going with Seattle's 58 OA pick) and Holl for a 4th (107 OA from Anaheim)

25 OA = Owen Pickering
58 OA = Ryan Greene (Defensive C prospect)
79 OA = Bryce McConnell-Barker (SOO C prospect )
107 OA = Benjamin King
217 OA = Nick Malik (Czech G prospect)

For me outside of the top 10 it’s a crap shoot who goes where. For me, there is no real difference between 25 and say 43 (should they trade back to get another pick)

Dubas has proven to find talent late in the 2nd round (Durzi 52, Robertson 53, Hirvonen 59, Knies 57). I am very confident in Kyle’s team finding another gem

Kasper:
Ranked #17 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #18 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #17 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #24 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #31 by Smaht Scouting

I can absolutely see him being available when the Leafs select at 25. I can see this draft going a number of ways, especially with the potential for some big draft day trades.

At this point he has to play in the NHL next year, he's dominating the OHL. Should be interesting to see if Eakins handles him better than Zegras in his rookie season. I'm also unsure if it would be better if he started off on the Wing or if he should play Center from the get-go.

Gauthier isn't a Center, he's a LW. I believe he didn't play a single game down the middle this season, correct me if I'm wrong.

I can't see anyone taking Kasper ahead of Nazar, the skill and ceiling gaps are just too big.

While I do like those guys as prospects (Knies in particular), the only one that has actually cracked the NHL is Durzi, who took 4 years to become a #4/#5 after being drafted as an overager, and the other 3 have combined for 3 points in 20 games (all Robertson, who is now 3 years removed from his draft). If Robertson cracks the top 6 next year then we can give Dubas some credit for finding a steal, but until then there’s very little actual evidence for him being able to find a steal, and the only one that’s an established NHLer has been developed for 3 years by another organization, so that doesn’t even necessarily count imo (drafting well is great, but you have to be able to turn that good pick into an NHL contributor). On that note it’s worth saying that neither Hirvonen nor Knies have played a game for the Marlies yet, so their development to date has been handled primarily by others.

Gauthier played mostly on Cooley’s wing this season, but he has played centre in the past, is confirmed to play centre in college next year, and most teams at the combine reportedly view him as a centre in the NHL.

Nazar’s got the higher skill level, but apparently a lot of teams really like Kasper’s compete and athleticism on top of having great skill and speed. He also had a strong world championships apparently so he’s got the recency bias buff, and is bigger, so it’s easier to project him up levels (especially because he looked good in the SHL and Nazar has yet to play against men).

Agree to disagree all good. I look forward to next season when Robertson puts everyone in there place who doubted him just like Liljegren has.

I would use this as evidence: AHL U22 scoring since 2010 sorted by even-strength primary points per game.

Age is key here (it's more impressive if you're younger), but Robertson is only a week away from being considered a DY+2.
Robertson was the youngest player drafted 2019 (could have almost been a 2020 eligible with his birth date).



Knies is a legit prospect and in a re-draft would have been taken in the first round. Hirvonen is the only one I have doubts about.

Out of the 2019 draft, Hoglander and Kaliyev are the only two 2nd round picks that have played significant mins.

For Hirvonen (2020 draft) no 2nd round picks have.

I don’t get why people think rushing prospects into the NHL is a good thing. Next year will be right on time when Kyle took over the drafting that we finally see his impact on the drafting and scouting.

Gonna be honest, that’s extremely nitpicky. There’s only one person on that list who played 75% of an AHL season, and it wasn’t Robertson. Half the guys coulda made that list simply because of a good 2 weeks and he’s one of the older guys on the list. His size, injury concerns, and struggles in his NHL call-ups aren’t great signs (yes I know he was on the 4th line for this season’s games, but so was Bunting and he’s a success story because he dealt with it, scored there, and earned bigger minutes). Liljegren isn’t comparable because he completely changed his game over the course of his AHL career, and even then only finally cracked the NHL (despite having literally zero competition for RD at any point in that time) in his DY+5.

In general I think it’s fine to give prospects all the runway they need (I think teams are better served by doing that rather than rushing and ruining them, so credit to the Leafs there), but my point for the Leafs is they can’t afford to be giving them that runway if they want to actually win now (or rather, more accurately, if no prospect steps up in a meaningful way, it makes it more difficult to win). There are 4 ways to get value for guys on contracts: absolute steals (e.g. MacKinnon, Kadri), perusing the bargain bin (e.g. Bunting, Kampf, Kase), deadline trades (generally with retention, but this is very asset heavy), and guys on ELCs (e.g. Byram). The best teams generally have guys that fall into 3 or 4 of these categories and fill key roles (top 9 F/top 4 D). Right now the Leafs are relying on #2 (which involves a healthy dollop of luck every season) and #3 (asset intensive, and because they’re generally right up against the cap anyway, it makes it difficult to load up like Tampa did, where they basically bought an excellent 3rd line at the TDL). Since they don’t have #1, they really need a couple guys on ELCs to step into bigger roles, to provide the depth they so badly need. All the big guns lived up to expectations and they still fell short this year. Having a guy from 3 years ago that could step into the lineup and provide a key goal would be real nice.

Also this will be nitpicky, but I’d argue Hirvonen is still behind plenty of the 2020 2nd round pick forwards, he’s in the AHL rookie, maybe gets a few games stage that guys like Sokolov (admittedly an overager) and Peterka were at this year, and I think it’s safe to say Bordeleau’s stint after the college year finished proved he’s an NHLer (similar to how Pinto seized 3C out of college for Ottawa last season, and woulda played there all this season if he hadn’t got injured twice). And he’s still behind guys like Jarventie (Hirvonen’s production this year was what Jarventie did last year in Liiga), Ponomaryov, and Evangelista, maybe a handful of others too. Next year will be interesting because I think lots of those 2nd rounders will be leaving their various junior/European leagues and debuting in the AHL, so the playing field will be level. But while I do think Hirvonen is the best of the small forwards the Leafs have drafted, he’s still a small forward who has yet to play in NA, with all of the issues associated with that (like I personally don’t see SDA or Voit becoming anything, Abruzzese I’m not sold on either, it woulda been nice for the Leafs if they’d taken at least one guy like Kastelic, Dewar, or Leonard who can provide decent bottom six minutes rather than having to scrape the bin for past-their-prime guys that can hardly skate anymore, like I love Spezza, but he faded hard, and having him, Simmonds, and Clifford as forwards 11-13 wasn’t great).

One last point on small forwards: the reason Knies would go in the 1st round in a redraft (probably) is because he has other projectable skills outside of offensive production that translate up levels. The small forwards rely almost solely on their offense continuing to be elite at the NHL level to succeed, so if that one thing doesn’t translate (which is a common occurrence for dozens of high end junior players every year), they simply don’t have an NHL career. Like there’s a reason that when you think of small forwards drafted outside the 1st round that are in major roles, the list is basically Gaudreau and Point. All the dozens of other guys that fit their pre-draft scouting report never made it, despite being exciting right up until the point where they didn’t make the NHL roster.

To build on my point about the Leafs struggling to find talent outside the 1st round: literally the ONLY active NHL player drafted by the Leafs outside the 1st round that still plays for them and has 20+ games in the NHL is Pierre Engvall. Every single other non-1st is either gone or a flop. And I don’t think that’s a very restrictive guideline. The Flames have 6 guys that fit that criteria. Tampa Bay has 6 as well, even after trading Katchouk, Raddysh, and Joseph at the TDL (all of whom qualify).

It wasnt a struggle it was Lou's inability to draft beyond round 1. Like honestly when he was in charge should have let Dubas handle the drafting and he could focus on the contract negotiations. Like yes he once in a while surprises people but yeah not good.

Should have listened to the NJ warnings as man were they correct about that flaw of his

Luckily we not got a guy who has been finding some needles in a haystack in the later rounds

Still cant believe Niemela was a 3rd round pick

Verhaeghe(82), Johnsson(202), Brown(156) 🤷‍♂️

And yes, the 2015 2016 2017 drafts conducted by Mark Hunter was an unmitigated disaster that set this franchise behind the eight ball.

My entire point is that you don’t have a needle yet lol. You THINK you have a needle with a handful of guys, but none of them have actually played even a quarter of an NHL season, so you have no way of knowing. And I personally don’t think many of them will hit. I would be legitimately surprised if the 2026-27 Leafs (or whatever year you like that’s after the point where these guys should have made it) had more than 2 of Robertson, Abruzzese, Abramov, SDA, Voit, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, J. Miller, Schingoethe, Stotts, Kizimov, Tverberg, and Holmberg were mainstays on the roster. Fwiw I’d say Robertson is more likely than not to make it and be a solid middle six guy (maybe 70% likely) but I don’t think I’d give anyone else higher than 40% odds, and the majority under 10%. Those are all forwards drafted in the last 4 years btw.

I do like Knies and Niemela though. And Villeneuve is another RD worth keeping an eye on for 3-4 years down the line. But extra small forwards just ain’t it, and Dubas’s biggest flaw in drafting is using all his picks on his 4-5 favourite tiny forwards per draft, rather than his single favourite tiny forward (maybe 2 if he has like 9+ picks) and a bunch of guys that at least project as NHLers in some way. Like look at Montreal, they’ve only taken 1 forward under 5’11” in each of the last two drafts, and one of them is Sean Farrell, because that’s who they identified as their guy, and the rest of the guys have a chance to at least be a contributor in another way due to them not being solely reliant on offense (guys like Tuch, Mysak, Roy, etc.). Lou aside, I think this is starting to bite the Leafs, and will continue to bite them for the next couple years, and Dubas should be changing his draft strategy accordingly if he’s willing to objectively critique his performance to date.

Key word is with the team that drafted them. It doesn’t exactly help the Leafs to see guys succeed elsewhere, they need depth scoring in THEIR lineup, not New Jersey’s or Florida’s or Ottawa’s. And if I recall, Verhaeghe was 1/5 of what turned into a season or two of Grabner (now gone), Johnsson turned into Joey Anderson (maybe a bottom sixer next year?), and C. Brown turned into a disastrous year of Ceci but at least dumping the Zaitsev contract. So it’s not even like they brought back a ton of value. Trying to say Connor Brown turned into Campbell (who still might walk) because of the 3rd round pick being one of 3 assets used in that trade is so much of a stretch that I’d hope you wouldn’t even go there, but figured I’d acknowledge it anyway.

Edit: Agree on the Hunter drafts btw, but my opinion here is that the outlook still isn’t great, and Dubas’s strategy needs to change from going for the super big payout with extremely long odds to going for a few safer picks.

Agreed, Engvall and all the guys I have listed were never drafted by Dubas. I was confused as to why you even brought him up.

Since 2018 Durzi, Kurashev(CHI), Sharangovich(NJD), Romanov(MTL), McLeod(EDM), Fehervary(WSH) and maybe Samuelsson(BUF) who are all playing meaningful mins in the NHL. That’s it, taken in the 2nd round and after. Leafs have Sandin who the took in the first.

In 2019 Kaliyev(LAK) and Hoglander(VAN) only two guys drafted in the 2nd round and later playing meaningful mins in the NHL. Leafs did not have a 1st. Took Robertson in the 2nd.

In 2020 nobody.

So yes, had Mark Hunter not f’d over 2015 to 2017 we could be talking about prospects helping the Leafs instead we will need to wait for the prospects Dubas and his team have assembled since 2018 to grow into NHL players. Should there be one. To go back to what we first discussed before we entered this rabbit hole 😂 I am very confident in Dubas trading back and finding another gem in the later rounds unless a player they love is available at 25.

Man the only good draft Hunter ever did was Marner. Still ****ing pissed on the Aho story

Aho would be so good for this team rn and he and Marner would probs be the best PK duo seen in a long time

I know he can play Center. But there must've been a reason why he didn't, especially since guys like Stramel and Spicer played there instead of him. I don't see why they wouldn't play him at C if that was where he is supposed to play in the future, also because Nazar played at C and he is more likely to play Wing than Center in the NHL.

Kasper looked good in the SHL, yes. But he did nothing outstanding. Just his SHL performance this year doesn't suggest he should go in the Top 10. Top 20? Definitely. Top 15? He would be a good pick as well

I guess the USNTDP just liked having a power forward that can skate on Cooley’s wing. Cooley, Gauthier, and Nazar are all top 6 guys so one of them had to play wing 🤷‍♂️

Then they should've let Nazar play Wing if Gauthier projects to be a Center. Haven't actually heard that take a lot (Gauthier projecting to be a C), or at least I can't remember hearing it. I personally think he'd work best as a Winger. Especially on a team like the Ducks, I think he'd fit into the future top 6 well. Something like this seems plausible:
Pastujov-Zegras-Terry
Gauthier-McTavish-Perreault/???
I'd put Gauthier on the 2nd line because the lines would be more balanced that way (or else there would be three snipers/shoot-first players on a line).

is someone going to sign Josh Williams?

Kaiden Guhle is the 2022 WHL Playoffs MVP!@EdmOilKings | @CanadiensMTL | #WHLChampionship pic.twitter.com/nEcHTh1iQM

— The WHL (@TheWHL) June 14, 2022

He's looking like an absolute stud. Can't wait to see him turn pro.

Kaiden GOAThle was awarded MVP of the WHL Playoffs

What about Xavier Parent... wouldn't surprise me if Montreal signs him for instant chemistry with Roy

I was so disappointed they didn't go with Mercer, but I've been proven so wrong. Mercer may turn out the better player but Guhle can be the go-to defenseman for this team for the next 10+ years. He's a powerhouse.