Here are all the players listed above and their 5v5 GF% rel from the past 2 years:
Crosby: +11.03
O'Reilly: +10.99
Aho: +9.95
Point: +9.69
Draisaitl: +9.58
MacKinnon: +9.07
McDavid: +8.88
Bergeron: +8.74
Couterier: +7.81
Eichel: +7.64
Barkov: +6.76
Zibanejad: +5.96
Matthews: +2.56
Scheifele: +1.70
Tavares: +1.66
Toews: +1.45
Malkin: -0.75
Stamkos: -1.30
Some observations:
- Draisaitl and McDavid are so far above the others offensively they're in a different class completely. MacKinnon is the only one within the same hemisphere. All 3 guys have among the best positive impact on goal differential in the league (GF% rel), these guys should rank in the top-3 on any reasonable list.
- I thought hard about putting MacKinnon above Draisaitl due to the McDavid effect, but ultimately decided against it for several reasons: he isn't ahead of Draisaitl in any of the metrics listed above, Draisaitl actually scored MORE away from McDavid than with him last year, there are 5 guys on the ice at any time and MacKinnon plays on a much better team leading to better QoT (as seen in the lower IPP number), and the differences in P/GP are not insignificant. Draisaitl had a greater positive impact on his team over the 2-year span, too.
- An argument can be made for Crosby in the top-3, but injuries are stunting his overall production, which slowed year-over-year. Still, best in class GF% rel and 4th best P/GP should have him easily in 4th place.
- Let the Matthews v Eichel controversy continue. They're pretty even offensively but Eichel's much better GF% impact swayed me.
- Malkin came back with a VERY strong campaign in 19-20, proving he absolutely belongs in the top-10 still. His GF% rel numbers look weak, but that was largely due to a poor (by these standards) 2018-19 season. His offense (P/GP, IPP) put him above Matthews for me, but wasn't enough to overcome the lead in GF% rel that Eichel has.
- Zibanejad makes a case for himself. I didn't think he'd be anywhere close to a top-10 spot, but with greater offensive impact than Aho and Barkov and with a competitive overall impact, he belongs. He drives play better than those two also.
- Aho has better numbers than a bunch of these guys, putting him in a bottom-5 spot shouldn't be controversial. Same with Barkov.
- Stamkos plays wing a bunch so I'm not sure he should be considered here. You can see the positive affects of playing a lot of minutes with Point and Kucherov in the first 2 charts above. Weak GF% rel though.
- Speaking of Point, offensively he benefits from playing with Kucherov (his really low IPP in chart #1 speaks to this), but he also adds a lot to the line defensively and he has the 10th most goals of all NHL centers. Just misses the list, I think all ten of these guys would do better in his situation.
- I'm not seeing any justification for having Couterier on this list. He's decent defensively but doesn't provide near enough offense to be in the running IMO.
- O'Reilly is in the same position as Couterier, but his defensive impact is better. I really wanted to include him for his outstanding GF% rel number, but I just couldn't justify putting him ahead of either Barkov or Aho. He needs more offense.
- These numbers don't show Scheifele as deserving of a top-10 spot. He's decent offensively but isn't driving play like most of these guys, and isn't great defensively.
Advanced stats are just simple stats stacked up in a way that multiple aspects can be looked at in a single metric. There's nothing to hate about them other than the fact that they may be a little confusing.
On another note I think Bergeron's defensive game is definitely still elite and he should've been considered.
you put work into this but the reason Draisaitl is so high is becuase he has mcjesus, he is good ngl but when your playing with mcjeasus your guaranteed a 50 plus point season
Geno for sure stays in the top-10 till he gets too old. Sid is still at #1 for me. he is an elite playmaker and actaually plays defense as opposed to McDavid and Draisaitl. how can they be better than Sid when they literally don't have any interest in playing anything remotely looking like defense.
This list is legitimately in opposition to advanced stats - these are raw point totals, pts per game, and 5v5 plus-minus.
An advanced stats list would be based on RAPM (measures the individual performance of a given player in an environment where many factors can impact their raw results), expected goals %, relative-to-teammates, quality of competition, etc.
My opinion is that points matter, stats matter, but if you can support 'why the player is able to perform' with more than 'he was one of the last 3 guys to touch the puck before it went in', you have a better argument. Also, if I were going to use raw points, I'd at least divide per 60 instead of per game. And I'd try to factor in 5v5 vs PP since there seems to be a lot of noise in who/what gets credit for PP production.
Hard to set the bias part of me aside when considering 2&3 but do agree with you on that. The one name I see constantly on these lists that I just can’t get behind is eichel. I can understand and respect why he’s there just wouldn’t be for me.
On another note I think Bergeron's defensive game is definitely still elite and he should've been considered.
It is and he was. He just doesn't drive offense enough, he depends on his elite wingers to do that. If you put, say, Aho or Barkov between Marchand and Pastrnak, they would produce better results in basically every facet of the game. IMO. Bergeron is still an elite player, just not top-10.
you put work into this but the reason Draisaitl is so high is becuase he has mcjesus, he is good ngl but when your playing with mcjeasus your guaranteed a 50 plus point season
Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Mackinnon is forsure 2nd
- I thought hard about putting MacKinnon above Draisaitl due to the McDavid effect, but ultimately decided against it for several reasons: he isn't ahead of Draisaitl in any of the metrics listed above, Draisaitl actually scored MORE away from McDavid than with him last year, there are 5 guys on the ice at any time and MacKinnon plays on a much better team leading to better QoT (as seen in the lower IPP number), and the differences in P/GP are not insignificant. Draisaitl had a greater positive impact on his team over the 2-year span, too.
Geno for sure stays in the top-10 till he gets too old. Sid is still at #1 for me. he is an elite playmaker and actaually plays defense as opposed to McDavid and Draisaitl. how can they be better than Sid when they literally don't have any interest in playing anything remotely looking like defense.
You should watch Edmonton sometimes, its really not as bad as you make it out to be. Crosby just isn't quite good enough to crack the top 3. No shame in that, he's 33 years old now. I'm a big fan, but I can't justify him above any of the top-3.
In terms of overall play, IMO:
1-Sid
2-MacK
3-McDavid
4-Matthews
5-Point
Point isn't that great when you take Kucherov away from him. Kucherov is driving that line unquestionably. Offensively he's a top-3 player. Boxcars and (P/GP) over the past 2 years:
Their underlying metrics make it look like Kucherov is tilting the ice more than Point is too. At 5v5 over the past 2 years:
Together: 54.42 CF%
Kuch alone: 52.16
Point alone: 48.17
Together: 54.36 FF%
Kuch alone: 51.59
Point alone: 47.59
Together: 53.93 SF%
Kuch alone: 50.87
Point alone: 47.43
Together: 55.56 xGF%
Kuch alone: 51.34
Point alone: 50.08
IMO Point isn't a top-15 player in the league without Kucherov. He was front and center in the playoffs this year but still needed Kucherov in order to make a positive impact:
Together: 63.30 CF%
Kuch alone: 62.79
Point alone: 48.51
Together: 62.77 FF%
Kuch alone: 65.54
Point alone: 45.71
Together: 63.13 SF%
Kuch alone: 65.05
Point alone: 41.67
Together: 64.30 xGF%
Kuch alone: 68.55
Point alone: 52.25
In terms of "overall play", Point doesn't even breakeven without Kucherov beside him. He's not a top-5 player in the league or even a top-20 player. Matthews is top-20, but I'm not seeing any evidence that he's top-5 in terms of overall impact.
Uh, this list is ok, but overall not very good. Put MacKinnon second at least, if not first, and also there is literally no reason Malkin is better than Matthews at this point (obiously 5 years ago, Malkin would be top 5 at least, but he's declined). Also Matthews>Eichel, Matthews is a top 5 centre.
Sid first still? Uh no, and I really really like Sid. Sid is probably 3rd. Or are you trying to say those 3 are interchangeable? Also Malkin is in the third tier with Zib, Aho and Barkov.
Uh, this list is ok, but overall not very good. Put MacKinnon second at least, if not first, and also there is literally no reason Malkin is better than Matthews at this point (obiously 5 years ago, Malkin would be top 5 at least, but he's declined). Also Matthews>Eichel, Matthews is a top 5 centre.
Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. Your uninformed opinion isn't going to change my informed opinion.
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