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Lets Go Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 août à 10 h 55
Sujet: Standings Predictions - August
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>evelutions2</b></div><div>I have my doubts that the Avs even get back to the Conference finals. I mean, that would be asking for a lot from Newhook, Byram, and Georgiev, all who are still relatively unproven. And Tampa, I still have faith in for a long run, but that will again depend on Vasilevskiy. It was clear at a few points this past postseason that Tampa was clearly burnt out, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t go on a long run this year. I still can’t see Boston making the playoffs this year, especially with the high probability of a terrible start to the season. A bunch of safe picks, but I would argue that the Avs aren’t winning the cup this year.</div></div>

Yeah I'm def taking the safe route here. I think the Bruins have enough depth to weather the injury storm early on but something crazy usually happens so maybe they will fall apart. As for the Avs, they lost 4 games in the entire postseason last year, and Kuemper was amongst the worst goalies in playoff GSAx. They're the favorites to win again and I don't think anyone improved enough to compete with them in the West, even if they take a step backward from last season's dominance. If you put the stats aside and factor in the emotion that every team will be gunning for them and trying to make it a bloodbath, there is a path for their exit but I'm not predicting it.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 15 h 57
Sujet: I want to be different
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>horse430</b></div><div>I think centers are more valuable than wingers. I also love that Matthew can play all 3 (5v5, PP, PK) where Kyrou is 2 (5v5 and PP). Now, you could convince me that a top 6 of 19-18-25 and 20-10-89 is better than 19-18-89 and 20-90-10. I guess it depends on how you view Schenn moving forward. Do you think he can eat the minutes ROR does, or is he more of a winger for the back end of his deal. The answer to that question is really what you have to answer not really Kyrou vs ROR

How I would Rank them:
Tkachuk/ROR
Tkachuk/Kurou
Kyrou/ROR plus assets</div></div>

I think I'd rank it the same but it's a tough call. Definitely agree with the need for minute-eating centers over scoring wingers. It would be pretty risky to go with Thomas and Schenn down the middle because neither are going to shut anything down. ROR age worries me a little though. If he loses another step from his already-slow feet, he could crater pretty badly while Kyrou still has plenty of prime years left. I wish we had an ROR replacement in the pipeline.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 15 h 38
Sujet: I want to be different
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>horse430</b></div><div>I get it, Jordan Kyrou is a player that is rarely seen in STL. The reason I am good with it is you still have to sign him next year and you just don't even have the money to have Tkachuk, Thomas, and Kyrou. So if I am going all in on money for either Tkachuk or Kyrou (as in you can only pay one) give me Tkachuk every single time. So if that is the case, why not use him as a major trade piece, maybe you are able to keep a neighbours and bolduc, so you are set up to hopefully keep the window open for a cup longer than we would think as we stand today</div></div>

Most of the big cap hits on the roster have trade protection, so I understand the point about 'you can only pay one', but just for kicks, would you rather have Tkachuk + ROR or Tkachuk + Kyrou? (Or ROR + Kyrou + all the assets it would take for Tkachuk?)
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 14 h 5
Sujet: Matthew Tkatchuk to the Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blues4TheCup</b></div><div>most I would do is Tarasenko, Neighbours and a 1st. otherwise I would wait until he is a free agent</div></div>

From what I've read, CGY isn't going to let this situation get to arbitration. Either a trade or a longterm extension; letting him get to a 1yr deal could be a fireable offense. If Tkachuk's camp makes it clear that there are only a few (or one) team that he will sign long term with, that cuts into their leverage but it still should yield them a better return than they'd get if they try to move him on a 1yr deal.

If it comes out that he only will sign long-term in STL, I could see the pkg you have - Tarasenko (could go to a 3rd team), Neighbours, 1st. Otherwise with competition I think the Blues would be offering a little more. Probably not as extreme as some of these armchairs I've seen lately, holy smokes.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 17 h 46
Sujet: Reported Rejected Trades For Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>Tuch was a year older than eichel. Saad is 5 years older than tkachuk and put up half his points. For comparison, tuch but up .2 less PPG in his final season with vegas before the eichel trade. An ideal return for tkachuk based on the eichel trade is a player one year older than him that puts up 1.05 PPG because tkachuk had a 1.25ppg season. Kyrou is one year younger and had slightly less production than the ideal 1.05 in 1.02 PPG. That’s a solid return based on the eichel trade. Now throw in bolduc and a first and a second and you’re set. Yes I said bolduc because he was the 17th pick in a more recent draft aka what krebs was for vegas. Throw in the first and second and now you have a trade that actually mimics the eichel trade.</div></div>

I know it wasn't exact but Tuch = 50 pt winger, Krebs = quality prospect. I am aware that Saad isn't as valuable as Tuch, my fault for being overly vague.

Kyrou + Bolduc + 1st + 2nd for Tkachuk when he is demanding a trade to his preferred destination would be dumb af. If that's what they ask for then I'd be fine walking away and watching their situation get worse. Not sure if people are just sleeping on Kyrou, or if it's a question of the impact of leverage, but I'm just laying out my thoughts. I figure that if the Blues can find a way to move Tarasenko, and then make an offer like Barbashev/Perunovich + Bolduc/Neighbours + 1st + 2nd, or something in that ballpark to start with, it could get legs when the arbitration date approaches. If they want Kyrou, it's a 1-for-1 in my opinion. Not saying he's an equal player, but the situation won't require the Blues to pay full value.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 17 h 11
Sujet: Reported Rejected Trades For Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>He’s the issue though. Eichel had leverage as well, he said he wouldn’t play unless he got that surgery and it became a pissing match which resulted in him not playing for them again. The fact that he got that return with leverage on the team shows how leverage isn’t as much as it actually seems unless the leverage is saying you are only playing for one team and then you can get said player at a heavy discount. I see where you are coming from but the flames likely keep him till they get a good deal for him to anywhere.</div></div>

Ok, but if you're mirroring the Eichel trade you're talking about Saad + Neighbours + 1st + 2nd. There was no player in the Eichel package that scored at a better rate than Eichel (look up Kyrou's first 3 seasons vs Tkachuk's). Vegas didn't have to give up a core player IMO.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 16 h 50
Sujet: Reported Rejected Trades For Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>Tkachuk is coming off of a 104 point 40+ goal season as a power forward with a very strong defensive game. He is the premier power forward for the modern day NHL. If you are trading for that, no piece should be off limits. The fact that trouba got 20 OA and a roster filled doesn’t mean anything imo, this is the most valuable player to enter the trade market since eichel, I would go as far as to say more valuable than eichel and being the most valuable player since prime karlsson was on the market. Eichel fetched a top 6 roster player with term, a top prospect, a first and a second. The flames rejecting this package shows tkachuk is more valuable and they want karlsson return. Obviously the Karlsson trade was seen as a fleece for San Jose at the time but I see Calgary wanting similar value in the players for tkachuk and having them be more bonafide</div></div>

Idk, leverage is a very real thing that has little to do with raw player value. Tkachuk had an amazing season, but if he tells CGY that he isn't signing for more than 1 year, they will trade him. And if they trade him, the team acquiring him will need assurance that he will sign long term. And if there is only one team that gets that assurance, there is no reason for that team to give up a core guy like Kyrou. If Tkachuk leaves the door open for a few teams, then his price will obviously be higher, but IMO the Blues could pull it off without involving Kyrou.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juill. à 18 h 6
Sujet: Parayko trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>About the Blues and xG numbers and high shooting percentages and such: they play for high percentage shots. You know this. We all yell at them every night for passing up shots to try and pass the puck into the net (right up until they actually do pass it into the net, thank goodness). And to extend that point, the Blues also play to push teams wide and don't particularly mind if they shoot 30 times from the far perimeter - that adds up after a while. So decent save percentages and high shooting percentages are just how they play. It skews a lot of analytic numbers, as does the fact that an overwhelming number of their goal leaks come directly off bad giveaways, a great many of which are the fault of forwards. Long story short, the Blues are just one of those teams that basic analytics don't understand, for all sorts of reasons. We've seen this for the larger part of five straight seasons now. The one thing that does apply is: if you see the Blues actually racking up good analytics, get the hell out of the way. That means they're keeping silly mistakes to an absolute minimum, like they did from January on in the Cup year, and they will probably crush you.</div></div>

I'm with you, but IMO that explains a difference of a few percentage points, say 54% vs 49% (i.e. their 5v5 GF vs xGF % over the whole season), which can still make for a big swing in an analytical model. But when the difference is 67% to 48%, I think there are other factors in play.
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