Lets Go Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 août à 10 h 55
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 15 h 57
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 15 h 38
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 14 h 5
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 17 h 46
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>Tuch was a year older than eichel. Saad is 5 years older than tkachuk and put up half his points. For comparison, tuch but up .2 less PPG in his final season with vegas before the eichel trade. An ideal return for tkachuk based on the eichel trade is a player one year older than him that puts up 1.05 PPG because tkachuk had a 1.25ppg season. Kyrou is one year younger and had slightly less production than the ideal 1.05 in 1.02 PPG. That’s a solid return based on the eichel trade. Now throw in bolduc and a first and a second and you’re set. Yes I said bolduc because he was the 17th pick in a more recent draft aka what krebs was for vegas. Throw in the first and second and now you have a trade that actually mimics the eichel trade.</div></div>

I know it wasn't exact but Tuch = 50 pt winger, Krebs = quality prospect. I am aware that Saad isn't as valuable as Tuch, my fault for being overly vague.

Kyrou + Bolduc + 1st + 2nd for Tkachuk when he is demanding a trade to his preferred destination would be dumb af. If that's what they ask for then I'd be fine walking away and watching their situation get worse. Not sure if people are just sleeping on Kyrou, or if it's a question of the impact of leverage, but I'm just laying out my thoughts. I figure that if the Blues can find a way to move Tarasenko, and then make an offer like Barbashev/Perunovich + Bolduc/Neighbours + 1st + 2nd, or something in that ballpark to start with, it could get legs when the arbitration date approaches. If they want Kyrou, it's a 1-for-1 in my opinion. Not saying he's an equal player, but the situation won't require the Blues to pay full value.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 17 h 11
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juill. à 16 h 50
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hurricanes73</b></div><div>Tkachuk is coming off of a 104 point 40+ goal season as a power forward with a very strong defensive game. He is the premier power forward for the modern day NHL. If you are trading for that, no piece should be off limits. The fact that trouba got 20 OA and a roster filled doesn’t mean anything imo, this is the most valuable player to enter the trade market since eichel, I would go as far as to say more valuable than eichel and being the most valuable player since prime karlsson was on the market. Eichel fetched a top 6 roster player with term, a top prospect, a first and a second. The flames rejecting this package shows tkachuk is more valuable and they want karlsson return. Obviously the Karlsson trade was seen as a fleece for San Jose at the time but I see Calgary wanting similar value in the players for tkachuk and having them be more bonafide</div></div>

Idk, leverage is a very real thing that has little to do with raw player value. Tkachuk had an amazing season, but if he tells CGY that he isn't signing for more than 1 year, they will trade him. And if they trade him, the team acquiring him will need assurance that he will sign long term. And if there is only one team that gets that assurance, there is no reason for that team to give up a core guy like Kyrou. If Tkachuk leaves the door open for a few teams, then his price will obviously be higher, but IMO the Blues could pull it off without involving Kyrou.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juill. à 18 h 6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>About the Blues and xG numbers and high shooting percentages and such: they play for high percentage shots. You know this. We all yell at them every night for passing up shots to try and pass the puck into the net (right up until they actually do pass it into the net, thank goodness). And to extend that point, the Blues also play to push teams wide and don't particularly mind if they shoot 30 times from the far perimeter - that adds up after a while. So decent save percentages and high shooting percentages are just how they play. It skews a lot of analytic numbers, as does the fact that an overwhelming number of their goal leaks come directly off bad giveaways, a great many of which are the fault of forwards. Long story short, the Blues are just one of those teams that basic analytics don't understand, for all sorts of reasons. We've seen this for the larger part of five straight seasons now. The one thing that does apply is: if you see the Blues actually racking up good analytics, get the hell out of the way. That means they're keeping silly mistakes to an absolute minimum, like they did from January on in the Cup year, and they will probably crush you.</div></div>

I'm with you, but IMO that explains a difference of a few percentage points, say 54% vs 49% (i.e. their 5v5 GF vs xGF % over the whole season), which can still make for a big swing in an analytical model. But when the difference is 67% to 48%, I think there are other factors in play.