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A_K

Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
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Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 2:01 pm
Sujet: Interesting
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>cbjthrowaway</b></div><div>EASY decline.

There are 20+ teams interested in him and he's a legit 1C (especially when you look at his underlying stats, he's an elite transition player) with 4+ years of control. His value isn't dropping, let alone quickly. If one team thinks they can lowball Jarmo because he said he wants out, they're only guaranteeing that they won't get him.

If STL wants him they're looking at something around Thomas IMO.</div></div>

I agree, CBJ probably doesn't let the conversation stray away from Thomas, but I don't think the Blues would move him. I think the only way the Blues could be in on PLD is if another 1.5-2 yrs pass and his situation has become more Trouba-esque where the team has lost a lot more leverage and a team is able to put together a futures package to make it happen.

From a team-needs perspective, the Blues would be better off with their existing centers and keeping their draft capital to get the prospect pool recharged, in my opinion.
Forum: GM Game 2019-20Wed at 11:37 am
Sujet: 2019 - 20 GM Game - News and Important Info Thread
<a href="/users/Zach" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Zach</a>, <a href="/users/DontToewsMe19" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@DontToewsMe19</a>, <a href="/users/Rodzikhockey93" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Rodzikhockey93</a>, <a href="/users/Gronk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Gronk</a>, <a href="/users/Mr_Cap" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Mr_Cap</a>, <a href="/users/flamesfan419" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@flamesfan419</a>, <a href="/users/mhockey91" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mhockey91</a>, <a href="/users/TMLSage" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@TMLSage</a>, <a href="/users/Justin_2t1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Justin_2t1</a>, <a href="/users/GhostBear" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@GhostBear</a>, <a href="/users/Preston_Mattesich" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Preston_Mattesich</a>, <a href="/users/Higgs31" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Higgs31</a>, <a href="/users/Matt59" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Matt59</a>, <a href="/users/Turner33" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Turner33</a>, <a href="/users/eklund29" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@eklund29</a>, <a href="/users/phillyjabroni" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@phillyjabroni</a>, <a href="/users/rangersandislesfan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@rangersandislesfan</a>, <a href="/users/krakowitz" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@krakowitz</a>, <a href="/users/ItzMeTaboo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@ItzMeTaboo</a>, <a href="/users/DirtyDangles" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@DirtyDangles</a>, <a href="/users/A_K" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@A_K</a>, <a href="/users/PattyMack88" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@PattyMack88</a>, <a href="/users/Max" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Max</a>, <a href="/users/hanson493" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@hanson493</a>, <a href="/users/monops19" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@monops19</a> , <a href="/users/Bennett93" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Bennett93</a>, <a href="/users/Jack_" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Jack_</a>, <a href="/users/buffbry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@buffbry</a>, <a href="/users/Bo53Horvat" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Bo53Horvat</a>, <a href="/users/Paolino" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Paolino</a>, <a href="/users/BenAky" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@BenAky</a>, <a href="/users/jmac490" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@jmac490</a>

The season begins tonight and I have a final update on our scoring process for Season 2 of V4. While the calculation methods and appearance of the score sheet will look different, most of the scoring details from Season 1 will carry over. However, there are some new features that you will want to hear about.
Since this stuff is boring for most of you, I’ll start with the part you really need to pay attention to:

<strong>WHAT DO I DO?</strong>
<em>SET YOUR ROSTER ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH</em> - Your team page serves as your official roster. On the last day of each month, your roster will lock, meaning that the BOG will (after verifying its legitimacy) enter your team EXACTLY AS IT APPEARS, and this roster will be used to calculate the scoring total for your team.

<em>SELECT YOUR COACHING STYLE</em> – This feature is new to v4.2. Take advantage of the strengths of your team by choosing one of the 5 categories for added multipliers. These bonuses are entirely based on your exact lineups (ex. Line 1, Line 2, 2nd pair, etc.) and are laid out in detail below in the “NEW TO V4.2” section (and can be found in the rule book). Use the first line of the “Description” section of your team page to make your selection. For example, type “January Coaching style = Balanced”. This will lock and be recorded on the last day of the month along with your roster. If you do not select a style, “Standard” will be selected by default.

<strong>NEW TO V4.2</strong>
Coaching styles are a new feature that the BOG wanted to add to make things more interactive and to allow for teams to exploit certain areas of strength that GMs have built their rosters upon. To put it simply, think of it as giving certain lines and pairings more ice and more value. There are 5 coaching styles:

<strong><em>Standard </em></strong>– aptly named, this is a generic usage strategy for a team that leans on its better players but doesn’t break their backs. 10%, 6%, and 4% bonuses to forward lines 1, 2, and 3, respectively. 10% and 6% bonuses to defense pairs 1 and 2, respectively.

<strong><em>Top-Heavy</em></strong> – this strategy is for teams that heavily rely on their top line and top pair. 20% bonus to forward line 1. 20% bonus to defense pair 1.

<strong><em>Balanced</em></strong> – Rolling all 4 lines and 3 pairs? 8% bonus to all 4 forward lines and all 3 defensive pairs.

<em><strong>Heavy Top6F</strong></em> – self-explanatory, good for a team that gets their top 2 lines out there as much as possible. 15% bonuses for forward lines 1 and 2. 6% and 2% bonuses to defense pairs 1 and 2.

<em><strong>Heavy Top4D</strong></em> – you should get it by now… 20% boost to defense pairs 1 and 2. 6% and 2% bonuses for forward lines 1 and 2.

Pro tip: Don’t stress about your selection here, these bonuses will only swing your total team score by a couple of percentage points. Just pick based on where you think your team strength lies. You may not ask the scorekeeper which selection to use.

<strong>SCORING DETAILS</strong>
Each skater will earn points for their team based on the amount of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals (ixG), hits, blocks, faceoff win/loss, penalties drawn/taken, on-ice goals for/against, on-ice expected goals for/against, and expected goals for/against relative to teammates, and time on ice.

Primary power play points are valued at 80% of the worth of a point scored in any other manner (i.e. EV, PK) and secondary assists on the power play are worth 65%; stats while playing against an empty net are ignored. On-ice stats are for 5v5 play only.

Each goalie will earn points for saves and lose points for goals against. They will earn or lose points for goals saved above expected (GSAx). Also, actual save percentage vs expected and vs league average are used. Goalie stats are counted for all situations. If a goalie’s stat line puts him into the negative (mostly due to small sample sizes of extreme underperformance) he will earn zero points.

Points are totaled each period for each line/pair and are multiplied by the bonuses based on your coaching style selection.

Healthy scratches earn 30% of their point totals.

The scoring formula is based on Game Score and Game Score Value Added (GSVA) models by Dom Luzszcszcsczsczczsyn, with a few tweaks and workarounds.

<strong>SCORING SCHEDULE</strong>
The scoring is broken into 4 quarters – one per month – for this shortened season. Any roster moves (including line changes or healthy scratch swaps) after the last day of each month will not go into effect until the following month.
January – scoring is tabulated from Jan 13th until Feb 13th. Rosters lock Jan 31st for this period.
February – scoring is tabulated from Feb 14th until Mar 13th. Rosters lock Feb 28th for this period.
March – scoring is tabulated from Mar 14th until April 13th. Rosters lock Mar 31st for this period.
April – scoring is tabulated from Apr 14th until May 13th (or the end of the season). Rosters lock Apr 30th for this period.

(This note is also posted in the Official Scoring Thread)
Forum: GM Game 2019-20Wed at 11:35 am
Sujet: 2019-20 GM Game - Official Scoring Thread
The season begins tonight and I have a final update on our scoring process for Season 2 of V4. While the calculation methods and appearance of the score sheet will look different, most of the scoring details from Season 1 will carry over. However, there are some new features that you will want to hear about.
Since this stuff is boring for most of you, I’ll start with the part you really need to pay attention to:

<strong>WHAT DO I DO?</strong>
<em>SET YOUR ROSTER ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH</em> - Your team page serves as your official roster. On the last day of each month, your roster will lock, meaning that the BOG will (after verifying its legitimacy) enter your team EXACTLY AS IT APPEARS, and this roster will be used to calculate the scoring total for your team.

<em>SELECT YOUR COACHING STYLE</em> – This feature is new to v4.2. Take advantage of the strengths of your team by choosing one of the 5 categories for added multipliers. These bonuses are entirely based on your exact lineups (ex. Line 1, Line 2, 2nd pair, etc.) and are laid out in detail below in the “NEW TO V4.2” section (and can be found in the rule book). Use the first line of the “Description” section of your team page to make your selection. For example, type “January Coaching style = Balanced”. This will lock and be recorded on the last day of the month along with your roster. If you do not select a style, “Standard” will be selected by default.

<strong>NEW TO V4.2</strong>
Coaching styles are a new feature that the BOG wanted to add to make things more interactive and to allow for teams to exploit certain areas of strength that GMs have built their rosters upon. To put it simply, think of it giving certain lines and pairings more ice and more value. There are 5 coaching styles:

<strong><em>Standard </em></strong>– aptly named, this is a generic usage strategy for a team that leans on its better players but doesn’t break their backs. 10%, 6%, and 4% bonuses to forward lines 1, 2, and 3, respectively. 10% and 6% bonuses to defense pairs 1 and 2, respectively.

<strong><em>Top-Heavy</em></strong> – this strategy is for teams that heavily rely on their top line and top pair. 20% bonus to forward line 1. 20% bonus to defense pair 1.

<strong><em>Balanced</em></strong> – Rolling all 4 lines and 3 pairs? 8% bonus to all 4 forward lines and all 3 defensive pairs.

<em><strong>Heavy Top6F</strong></em> – self-explanatory, good for a team that gets their top 2 lines out there as much as possible. 15% bonuses for forward lines 1 and 2. 6% and 2% bonuses to defense pairs 1 and 2.

<em><strong>Heavy Top4D</strong></em> – you should get it by now… 20% boost to defense pairs 1 and 2. 6% and 2% bonuses for forward lines 1 and 2.

Pro tip: Don’t stress about your selection here, these bonuses will only swing your total team score by a couple of percentage points. Just pick based on where you think your team strength lies.

<strong>SCORING DETAILS</strong>
Each skater will earn points for their team based on the amount of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals (ixG), hits, blocks, faceoff win/loss, penalties drawn/taken, on-ice goals for/against, on-ice expected goals for/against, and expected goals for/against relative to teammates, and time on ice.

Primary power play points are valued at 80% of the worth of a point scored in any other manner (i.e. EV, PK) and secondary assists on the power play are worth 65%; stats while playing against an empty net are ignored. On-ice stats are for 5v5 play only.

Each goalie will earn points for saves and lose points for goals against. They will earn or lose points for goals saved above expected (GSAx). Also, actual save percentage vs expected and vs league average are used. Goalie stats are counted for all situations. If a goalie’s stat line puts him into the negative (mostly due to small sample sizes of extreme underperformance) he will earn zero points.

Points are totaled each period for each line/pair and are multiplied by the bonuses based on your coaching style selection.

Healthy scratches earn 30% of their point totals.

The scoring formula is based on Game Score Game Score Value Added (GSVA) by Dom Luzszcszcsczsczczsyn, with a few tweaks and workarounds.

<strong>SCORING SCHEDULE</strong>
The scoring is broken into 4 quarters – one per month – for this shortened season. Any roster moves (including line changes or healthy scratch swaps) after the last day of each month will not go into effect until the following month.
January – scoring is tabulated from Jan 13th until Feb 13th. Rosters lock Jan 31st for this period.
February – scoring is tabulated from Feb 14th until Mar 13th. Rosters lock Feb 28th for this period.
March – scoring is tabulated from Mar 14th until April 13th. Rosters lock Mar 31st for this period.
April – scoring is tabulated from Apr 14th until May 13th (or the end of the season). Rosters lock Apr 30th for this period.
Forum: Armchair-GM 8 jan à 10 h 15
Sujet: How far do they go - Cup Winners
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kotkaniemi15</b></div><div>Vancouver exposed him in the playoffs. He came out of nowhere and no one had a book on him when he won the cup. But now that they’ve had time to scout him, I’m not sure that he has anymore viability in the NHL.</div></div>

Could say this about any goalie. The Blues exposed Hellebuyck in 2019 - he got beat on his blocker side on tons of shots he should've saved, and he was a disaster when they made him play the puck. He won the Vezina the next season. I'm not ready to write off Binner just because he was lousy in the bubble. His overall season was above-average (he was 10th in GSAx for goalies with over 1,000 shots faced) and he has shown the mental fortitude to win meaningful games when he's at his best.
Forum: Armchair-GM 6 jan à 17 h 49
Sujet: Most Underrated on Each Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dzad96</b></div><div>lol I can tell you don't like it. By discussion I mean this exactly. So you don't think Connor is underrated and I do. Here's why, nobody ever talks about, media, twitter folk, etc. And I think he is a fantastic player. He is fun to watch, tons of skill, plays hard and fast. I think he deserves more credit than he gets. That's why I put him here.</div></div>

Fair enough. He is an interesting case. If he could find a way to be more responsible on the defensive side of the puck, he could be a top 20 winger. His hands in tight and his stickhandling through traffic are insanely good. But I've seen him stuck in no-man's land way too many times when he's without the puck. I don't know why Maurice has him attached to Scheifele tbh; I think playing him with Stastny and Ehlers would make more sense. Ehlers can drive the play, Stastny is a smart passer and apt defensively, and Connor would do what he does, score the goals.
Forum: Armchair-GM 6 jan à 17 h 37
Sujet: Most Underrated on Each Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dzad96</b></div><div>It's based on a matter of opinion. Comparing one's opinion to the most common. would it make more sense if i dumbed it down and said "Players who I think are better than most other people think they are"?</div></div>

I guess so. Anytime I hear those words, my first inclination is to ask "compared to what". It's helpful to know you're comparing to most people, but even that is way too vague. Most experts? former players? data analysts?

For example, most people I know think that Connor is overrated. You say he's underrated. It's not a productive way to discuss players IMO. The discussion should be around if his flashy offense outweighs his lack of defense. Not trying to gatekeep and I know it's a boring time for hockey so I'm not trying to attack anyone. Just under/overrated is a big pet peeve of mine. Carry on.
Forum: NHL Signings 6 jan à 10 h 15
Sujet: St. Louis Blues signed Vince Dunn (1 Year / $1,875,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vince Dunn, signed 1x$1.8M by STL, might be the biggest "analytical darling" defenceman in the NHL. His playdriving results are exceptional but for whatever reason STL plays him in extremely limited minutes. <a href="https://t.co/FnxdcPjsvd" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/FnxdcPjsvd</a></p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1344667430560346113?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">December 31, 2020</a></blockquote>



You don't have to look very hard to find the supporting data for his defense, it's above average. And you do know that deployment is a coaching decision, not an evaluation of the player's abilities? If the Oilers next coach played RNH 12 minutes per night would you assume that he can't play in the top six or that the coach is making a poor decision?

Edit: and what is the main driver of a contract? I'd argue it's EV points which is why I used those comps. Contract determination and on-ice value don't always correlate, the contract is usually driven by points. Bringing up that Dunn "can't play defense" (he can and he does) has nothing to do with his contract comps IMO.</div></div>

You can have your opinion on the importance of QoC, TOI, etc, that's fine. All I'm trying to say is that it shouldn't have surprised anyone that his 1 yr bridge deal came out around $2m. All of the guys that produced similar to Dunn on their ELC's got more years and more money, and it is a safe assumption that when he signs his next extension it will be closer to those comps I brought up.
Forum: NHL Signings 6 jan à 10 h 05
Sujet: St. Louis Blues signed Vince Dunn (1 Year / $1,875,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>LOL, none of those guys are comps. They can play defense and don't need to be highly sheltered.</div></div>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vince Dunn, signed 1x$1.8M by STL, might be the biggest "analytical darling" defenceman in the NHL. His playdriving results are exceptional but for whatever reason STL plays him in extremely limited minutes. <a href="https://t.co/FnxdcPjsvd" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/FnxdcPjsvd</a></p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1344667430560346113?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">December 31, 2020</a></blockquote>



You don't have to look very hard to find the supporting data for his defense, it's above average. And you do know that deployment is a coaching decision, not an evaluation of the player's abilities? If the Oilers next coach played RNH 12 minutes per night would you assume that he can't play in the top six or that the coach is making a poor decision?

Edit: and what is the main driver of a contract? I'd argue it's EV points which is why I used those comps. Contract determination and on-ice value don't always correlate, the contract is usually driven by points. Bringing up that Dunn "can't play defense" (he can and he does) has nothing to do with his contract comps IMO.
Forum: NHL Signings 5 jan à 18 h 12
Sujet: St. Louis Blues signed Vince Dunn (1 Year / $1,875,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>The comparable D that signed this off-season all played harder minutes AND produced more.

Myers: 0.97 P/60 (26.4% vs Elites)
Koekkoek: 0.95 (30.5%)
Bear: 0.87 (36.1%)
Cernak: 0.66 (34.0%)
Dunn: 0.62 (17.5%)

It's not a terrible contract by any stretch, but pretending that it's a fantastic deal is just silly.</div></div>


Only 10 u23 d-men have had more EV pts in the last 3 yrs and only 2 of those 10 played fewer EV minutes.
1. Aaron Ekblad
2. Thomas Chabot
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Zach Werenski
5. Mikhail Sergachev
6. Ivan Provorov
7. Noah Hanifin
8. Travis Sanheim
9. Seth Jones
10. Darnell Nurse
11. Vince Dunn
Those are the comps IMO, not 40 games of Slater koekkoek etc, and none of them signed 1 yr deals. That's why I can't figure out why GMs were expecting him to sign a similar deal to koekkoek or demott or someone.

https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/skater_standard/?_inputs_&amp;std_sk_group=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_age1=%2217%22&amp;std_sk_type=%22Totals%22&amp;std_sk_info=%22No%22&amp;std_sk_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&amp;std_sk_season=%5B%2220192020%22%2C%2220182019%22%2C%2220172018%22%5D&amp;std_sk_pos=%22D%22&amp;std_sk_table=%22Box%20Score%22&amp;std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_sk_players=null&amp;std_sk_toi=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_team=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_age2=%2223%22&amp;std_sk_str=%22EV%22
Forum: NHL Signings 5 jan à 17 h 02
Sujet: St. Louis Blues signed Vince Dunn (1 Year / $1,875,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. <strong>In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected.</strong> It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I think they see the usage and understand exactly what Dunn is.</div></div>

A budding young defenseman that mops the floor against easy competition in limited minutes. Not sure how it surprised GMs when his contract comparables all either produced less or got paid longer. Seems right in line with most Blues fans' expectations, that if it came time to start camp, he would take 1 yr x 1.5-2 mil and work out something better when he has arbitration rights.