Your scenario would’ve worked if the Leafs isn’t overpay their other 3 star forwards greater than their market value.

Matthews’ market value is 11 million but he got 12.
Tavares’ market value is 10 million but he got 11.
Nylander’s market value is 6 million but he got 7.

I am not including the UFA market or bidding war factors into their value, it is solely based off performance. Marner’s market value is worth 8.5 million but since all the other 3 forwards got paid 1 million more than their market values, why shouldn’t Mitch? Also, he is better than Aho. It’s not just about what position he plays, Marner’s skating, agility, stick handling, dekes, dangles, creativity and vision are all superior to the Finnish centre. Also to think Marner deserves to be paid less than Skinner is beyond ridiculous.

A 2nd tier offer sheet for Marner could keep the contract above 10M AAV; prohibitive for Toronto. Would have to think someone would give up the compensation and money to steal him from Toronto. That 8.5 AAV would be a good deal for Toronto the same way Aho for 8.5 is a good value for Carolina. Skinner after all just got 9M

Marner is 21 and he just scored 95 points. He is getting more than 12 million. Quit dreaming.

Kucherov and McDavid are both underpaid btw

What exactly is this “similar career track?”

Aho’s seasons: 49 points, 65 points, 83 points

Marner’s seasons: 61, 69, 94

If anything the aho contract is a bad thing for you. It all but guarantees Marner will get more than aho.

He is actually much less valuable than Aho, but Marner benefits from bigger market and bigger name. He should be making 9-9.5 on 5-6yr deal MAX. He is 5th most valuable player on Leafs and 3rd best forward. Both Matthews and Tavares are better forwards and more valuable and Rielly and Andersen are more valuable to Leafs than Marner. If he does not want to sign below 10, Ill wait for maybe offersheet and if he signs the paper, goodbye for 4 1sts.

Simple, he gets more for an offer sheet. Yes, the Leafs can match if they want, but he will easily get an offer sheet that is better then $8.5M x 5 years. Marner is a special playmaking talent and better then Aho at this point.

Aho = .81ppg
Marner = .93ppg

I agree with completely with you on the Aho comparison.....maybe the Rantanen (who hasn't signed yet) is another one. Now IMO the Leaf will pay Mitch more than 8.5m...but that's the Leafs choice.
But teams don't want to overpay Marner either. Teams don't have long term cap for him...without trading off assets. And teams have their own RFAs to sign soon....geez to they want this 12m elephant on the team squeezing their players on salary, and to give cup four first rounders too.

Matthews got 11.5 not 12. Also he was overpaid like 0.5 mil, which in Marners case would bring him to 9mil AAV. Same as other players. Nylander was worth Ehlers AAV which when signed to percentage was around 6.5 mil AAV, He got 7. Tavares was valued by San Jose to 13 million contract. One of the best forwards offensively and defensively in the league who has got everything. He is well worth 11 per.

Marner should get 9-9.5 with all the comparables and all the crap. Anybody paying him 4 1sts should be fired.

Except someone can offer him $10.56M x 5 years at a cost of (2) 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. Sure Leafs can move some players around and match, but since he's only the 5th most valuable player that would be dumb to match wouldn't it.

They would match it for sure but it would be dumb to pay him that much. I hope actually someone offers him 12.5 as reported lol. He should be getting 3mil less.

More.

Still waiting for those offersheets... *tumbleweed drifts by*

Kucherov didn’t have the hardware when he signed that. Marner believes he should be paid closer to Matthews than Aho and won’t sign for less than 10 (maybe even 11). Whether you (or Dubas) think otherwise doesn’t really matter.

Highly doubt someone pays him that money to be willing to give up (4) 1sts but you can bet someone will offer the next tier down which is 5 years at $10.56M.

Leafs fans need to realize, Marner is the difference between a stanley cup in the next 3 to 5 years for the Leafs and not one. Who's going to fill his shoes? Please don't tell me Nylander, Johnsson, Hyman or Kap. Every Cup team has a A talent dynamic winger in addition to a top center, without Marner, the Leafs lose a lot of firepower that just can't be replaced easily. He is hardly the 5th most valuable player.

Sorry there is no logic in the argument that just because the Leafs overpaid Nylander and Matthews that they have to continue to overpay their RFAs. Just like when teams have underpaid an RFA, that doesn't mean that the team is going to continue getting great deals on their future RFAs.

And the nonsense of a few points difference in "points" makes Marner more valuable? Aho's greater goal production might make him more valuable. Production wise they are very close.
And let's not confuse the value monetary value of RFAs and UFAs. Traditionally right or wrong, UFAs get paid more.

I disagree with marner being better then aho. They are both very good but aho is a step ahead. Aho plays the harder position, scores goals and has better advanced stats. All while playing with weaker linemates. Marner was awful when he wasnt with JT (39% corsi) and the season before when he played with JVR and bozak he wasnt the driver of that line either. That line produced at the same rate when brown took over marners spot and brown is just a black hole offensively

They are both very good players but aho is a better playdriver, better transititionaly and better in his own end

Rantanen is a way better comparable then Aho.

As a defender, I'd much rather be facing Aho versus Marner on a 1 on 1. Marner is the better puck handler, skater, and better on the PP.

Rantanen is the better comparable to Marner, although I'd rather have Rantanen by the slightest of margins.

I truly believe that Marner is asking for 10.5 over 5 years. The Leafs are offering 8.5 to 9 mill over 6 years.

I think 9.4 over 6 will be the contract. I think the only thing holding up a deal is term more then $$ at this point. Marners camp must see that his market value is less then 10 mill on a 5 or 6 year term. An Offer sheet could obviously change everything. I would predict that after the AHO offer sheet it has become clear that a team will have to drastically overpay a player like marner in order for him to sign and a team in the Leafs position not to match. Leafs would match anything up to 12.5 mill on a 7 year term and figue out a way to make it work.

To say they set the market with Aho is ridiculous. Marner can easily say no Philly set the market with Hayes insane contract. Just cus one player took less than what they're worth doesn't mean every other player has to.

I actually think marner is better then rantanen. Rantanen wasnt great without MacKinnon. I guess marner was bad without JT so it kind of offsets things but if we are just looking at skillset, playing the most important position and scoring goals which is the hardest thing to do then aho would be ahead of them both. I do think rantanen and marner should make similar amounts though

So you think that Marner’s camp is going to okay with Nylander and Matthews being paid more than their market value whereas Marner gets less or equivalent? Also, it’s not just about the stats. Marner has more raw talent. His skating, agility, vision, creativity, puck skills are all better.

The Leafs are not going to match anything above 10.5 million AAV.

LMAO another Leaf fan trying to justify that Marner is not elite. He is not going to resign in Toronto and you will all miss his abilities.

What? 10 point differences each year isn't similar? And last year, Tavares is a helluva upgrade over Terravanen.

Your enititles to your opinion, and everyone has one.

Is he more valuable than Andersen? No way in hell. Is he more valuable then our best Dman, Morgan Rielly? No way in hell. Is he more valuable than a centerman who made him 90 point player? No way. Is he more valuable than centerman who has most 5v5 goals in all NHL since coming into the league, who drove the line with two players who are not as capable creatively and offensively as guy like Nylander or Marner and still got almost 40 goals in almost 70 games and similar amount of assists and was setting up career years for Kapanen and Johnsson? No way in hell is he even close to Matthews. 5th. He is not as valuable as those 4 guys I mentioned. But Aho is not as good comparable to Marner because automatically he is more valuable as #1 centerman. But Rantanen is good comparable and Rantanen should get as much as Marner, possibly even more. It would be interesting to see what happens but anything over 10mil AAV is overpayment. If its class 2 offersheet at 10.56etc.. they match it but it would be bad contract. If more, no way. I love Marner and he is gonna be star BUT he is not as valuable to be getting 10+. 9+ is reasonable and logical.