Agreed

Read Blazingbat11's post. That will explain.

I'm in economics and I agree with the majority of what you said. Where I disagree is how the value of information impacts value.

Taking Michael Grabner, I think that teams know New York has an incentive to move him. I also think that because of this, teams will not offer top dollar on him (like a 1st +) because they can use that offer to get Evander Kane. The main component is the timing of all these deals. If the high end players go first, the price for the lower end players will increase, depending on the team (the scarcity goes up, but the demand is still the same). If the low end players go, for let's say a 1st round pick, then the high end players will cost more based on the recency of the trade.

I also differ in terms of GMs being risk adverse. Moving high end assets for Erik Karlsson is risky because there is no guarantee he brings the cup or will resign. The risk with Mike Green is less because he isn't going to cost as much.

There isn't a market for these superstars. Their price is going to be dictated based on the timing and other signings.

I'm not saying Karlsson is worth Hedman/Kucherov +. not at all. but that it's OTT that are in the drivers seat for the time being . For all we know Dorion could be indeed asking for Kucherov +. and if that's the only price Dorion wants, well then that's his value. Do Tampa do it? 100% absolutely never in a thousand years! but like I said, for someone like Karlsson, it's a sellers market. there's no one twisting Dorion's arm or any deadline (trade deadline) that's forcing to move him. So for now , OTT can ask for a kings ransom for Karlsson and there's nothing another GM can do about it. If they want him they have to pay.

imo if I had to guess what Dorion would be asking for Karlsson realistically. it would either be a straight franchise player swap (Karlsson for Doughty is just an example), or a elite level package, so if I had to use Tampa as an example, how about Sergachev + Cal Foote + Raddysh + 2019 1st unprotected. Tampa doesn't do that for multiple reasons (cap issues being one of them) but why would Dorion ask for any less? But let's just say we are having this discussion next year, and Karlsson isn't signed yet, and it leaks that Karlsson wants to go to market. Well then it's a whole new ball game! Dorion loses almost all leverage, and is stuck actioning him to the highest bidder. but we aren't there yet.

exactly. which is why Karlsson won't be traded at the deadline. teams at this point of the season also don't have the wiggle room to make those types of deals. most likely if it happens, it will be in the offseason.

the point I'm trying to get at is Karlsson's market value right now is whatever Dorion wants it to be. Because he isn't classified in the same market as the rental players. Which is why I refer to rentals being in a buyers market, and guys like Karlsson with contracts the exceed past this season would be in a sellers market. both markets operate completely different.

I'm not an expert in economics in anyway. I have a degree is in Biomedical Sciences. but I did take 2 economic classes as electives lol so this is just my opinion from what I've taken from those 2 classes hahaha For all I know I'm completely wrong!

And I agree that Dorian can essentially set the market price. The question is whether teams will meet said price. I think Karlsson has more value next year or at the draft this year than he does in a couple of weeks

Sure, it's fun to talk about what Karlsson could get the Senators IF he's traded, but they have no good reason to trade him. In the end, even if he is traded, they'd need a really top player for him, not just a big package. People will always say, 'hey, look at this: Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, and Karlsson all on the same team, wow.' But realistically, Tampa Bay would have to give up one of those three players and add to get Karlsson. Sure, in value Kucherov might be worth as much as Karlsson, if not more, but each player has a different value to their team. For example, two players can be just as good and the value of a trade could be fair, but it doesn't mean either team would do it. So i'm not saying Tampa would trade one of those guys for Karlsson, but Ottawa would need one of them as part of a deal for Karlsson if Tampa really wanted him. If they don't give up one of those guys, they aren't getting Karlsson.

So in the end, Tampa Bay will not have Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, and Karlsson all on the same team. If you take a guy like Karlsson or Hedman, we know how good they are on that team, but a) that, so pretty much how they aren't exactly gonna be as good on the other team and b) a lot of GMs overvalue their players. But i don't think it's that they're overvalued by their teams as much as they just want to keep the main guys on the team together, which makes sense. Unless, of course, they got offered something like Kucherov, Point, and a 1st round pick for Karlsson. Is Tampa Bay going to do that? No, not at all, but i'm just saying that's what it'll take to even start discussions about Karlsson. With guys like that, it's very hard to find the right value, so that's what stops major trades like this, but then adding on how the teams never want to trade these guys, that stops it even more. So i don't even understand why Karlsson is on here, because his contract isn't even up until 2019, so it's too early to talk about this in my opinion. Whether it's July 1, July 2, or whenever it is, i think the news will be coming in that Ottawa has re-signed Karlsson to a big extension.

Now if you look at a guy like Pacioretty, who could be available for trade, it would be hard to find the right value. This, which is different (because they shouldn't feel like they need to keep him, he's not a superstar), would still be tricky. Now sure, a Pacioretty deal could get done, though it won't be easy. Every possibility we look at looks like either not enough for Pacioretty, or too much. It always would look bad for one team, good for the other, and then switches around even with a very minor change. Though that's mainly only with guys like Pacioretty, or even Evander Kane (who is a rental), as long as they have a lot of trade value.

So take the thing about the value switching around and all that, and add on the fact that Karlsson is a superstar player, so that stops pretty much any deal that could be made there, as Ottawa would also need a superstar in return. Some guys have more value to one team than another team/player. Karlsson has more value to Ottawa than Kucherov, and Kucherov has more value to Tampa Bay than Karlsson. Who has higher value to an expansion team? That doesn't matter. Whoever has higher value to an expansion team (or any other team, really, just not Ottawa or Tampa Bay), Karlsson has more value to the Senators, and Kucherov has more value to the Lightning. These teams will want something crazy if they're gonna move one of these guys.

I'll look at it the other way around too, so what if Ottawa wanted Kucherov? Tampa Bay would ask for Karlsson+ which the Senators would never do, but that's what the Lightning would need. Trades are not made just because the value is fair. Matthews for Eichel wouldn't happen just because the value is pretty fair. Trades have to make sense for both teams, so Ottawa would never trade Karlsson unless they got something absolutely crazy. Okay, fine, i'm not gonna say they'd never trade him unless they got that return, but right now, before the trade deadline, that's what it would take to get a superstar like Karlsson. They have no reason to trade him other than, 'wow, look at that crazy return, we're getting way more than his value.' And that would be something like Kucherov, Point, a 1st. Not sure if that would actually get the deal done, so maybe Tampa Bay would offer even more (not saying they'd do that, that's just what it would take). But either way, that's the only reason they'd trade him before this year's trade deadline.

If Tampa calls with Brayden Point and Mikahil Sergachev for Erik Karlsson, I'm taking it.

Dorian sets the market value. Other GMs have to meet his demand

I did, it makes no sense to think Karlsson and is a better value than the players you mentioned earlier. Karlsson and is 3 playoff round victories in 7 years, sure doesn't convince he is the guy to lift a team to the Cup, especially if Hedman or an equivalent is needed to obtain Karlsson. No team is offering so much.

@rangersandislesfan I personally disagree with you on the idea that Ottawa has no reason to trade Karlsson. In my opinion, they have no reason to keep Karlsson. They've already made it clear that they are going to be selling off players and starting the rebuild. If I'm Erik Karlsson, I don't want to hitch my wagon to that sinking ship, especially with Melnyk's recent comments about possibly cutting payroll if they don't generate more revenue.

If Karlsson does get his big 8-year, $10 million+ AAV contract, then the cuts will come from the rest of the team and it will be extremely tough to surround Karlsson with competitive talent. Couple that with the big contract Mark Stone will eventually get, and you have a similar McDavid-Draisiatl situation, except in this case the owner won't spend to the cap. You're going to have to hope that Ottawa gets production from their ELC guys and lower dollar players. Karlsson has made no indications that he will take a hometown discount, and has made it clear that he is going to get what he is worth.

This is not a team that will be competitive for the next 3-5 years. By then, Karlsson will be in his 30's and, while he will still likely be an elite defenseman, he will not be the player he is now. If Ottawa wants to rebuild correctly, they should try to trade Karlsson this offseason. TDL deals are often skewed and mired down by frantic desperation, and they don't often represent true player value. Dorion should listen to offers, but not actively shop Karlsson at the TDL. Unless a team offers an equal or greater than value for Karlsson, which in my opinion starts with a 1st and one of an organization's top 2 prospects, Dorion would be wise to wait until the offseason.

But like i said, even if the value is far, it doesn't mean the trade should be made. Or even if it's an overpayment.

If they rebuild, i see them rebuilding around Karlsson. He might be 30 by the time they're good again and will still be a great defenseman, likely almost as good as he is now, if not as good. People have always said guys like him are going to get traded. How often do we see Karlssons get traded? By Karlssons, of course, i mean superstars like that. People are going to talk about it, yeah, 'oh, Karlsson's gonna get traded.' Or, 'Ottawa's trading Karlsson.' But realistically, it's not going to happen. And even if it does, aren't we only talking about the trade deadline here? Even if they do trade him it's not now, they'd try to re-sign him. Sure, he has more value now but if they try to sign him for a bit after his contract's up, but trade him while he still has lots of value. That's only if they trade him though. Seriously, i just ignore Karlsson trade rumours most of the time. I would not be surprised at all if there are a bunch of major Karlsson trade rumours. However, i would be very surprised if he actually gets traded before the deadline.

Erik Karlsson doesn’t want to waste his prime on a rebuilding team that can’t even fill seats when they’re at the Conference Final. Karlsson is a winner, and if Ottawa doesn’t show him a promising team he’s packing his bags. No way he’s traded this deadline or this offseason, if he goes it will be sometime next year.

Just remember, it took Sakic almost a year to move Duchene. It takes time for a major deal to form.

Rebuilds take a lot of luck. Arizona has been in a rebuild for a long time now, and their first real star just got to the NHL in Keller. If Ottawa goes full-rebuild and they don't trade Karlsson, they need to get lucky and land a #1 center like Jack Hughes or Alexis Lafreniere. They also need to acquire a goalie of the future somewhere. If they draft one, he won't be ready in three years. If they trade for one, they most likely have to give something that affects their long-term future. It's not like the plan can just be, "rebuild, draft Dahlin, Hughes and Lafreniere".

Do you really think that Erik Karlsson is going to want to spend the rest of his prime years rebuilding? If you had the chance to go to a team that can contend for championships with ownership that is willing to pay for a championship team, why would you stay with an organization that is in the complete opposite state?

This is a good point. They have a very weak goaltending situation. Anderson is clearly on the decline, Condon is just a backup, and they don't have anyone of notable value in the pipeline; Hogberg looks like the closest, but even he is having trouble in the AHL. Their best bet for a quicker rebuild would be to trade for a guy that looks like he can be a starter soon, and there aren't a lot of notable options like there were last season. Grubauer looks like the best option, and maybe they take a flyer on Rittich or Jarry, who are more unproven. But they're also stuck because both Anderson and Condon are signed through 2021.

So here's the question: do you guys think Karlsson will be traded before the deadline?

No.

No. to RAIF question

Okay, good, i thought you were saying he'd be traded before the deadline.

ooooo that's kinda nasty......

that's why they play the games, to quiet the "nay-sayers"

Is this about the Bruins? I'm surprised.

everyone hates a winner!!!

Who says they're gonna be a winner this playoff? To tell the truth, i do think they're close, and they could do good in the playoffs, and maybe they could even win the cup this year but they're not my #1 pick.