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gm_jeanguy

Habs fan somehow
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars 2023 à 11 h 32
Sujet: HockeyProspecting ratings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pretzelcoatl</b></div><div>As much as I love Bader's work, keep in mind that his model is limited by three main factors:

1. All that is predicted for is point production. He is only predicting how many points a player will put up. A "star" is just a player who passes a certain career scoring threshold. Slafkovsky, though I personally am not high on him, may bring things that don't show on the scoresheet. JFresh's prospect equivelency model does not have this limitation and measures stars based on WAR.
2. Top prospects often have obvious potential that is not reflected in their production. Past the second round, or even the late first, you could blindly draft based on Bader's model and be very successful. At the top of the draft, however, you should put far more stock in the eye test. Fantilli is, without question, the second best player available in the draft. Carlsson, who you mention as being relatively poorly rated by Bader, should unequivocally be among the top picks of the draft.
3. All that is measured is point production. Hutson is an excellent prospect, I will not object to that, but just like NTDP teammate Seamus Casey, there is a possibility that his game does not translate due to his size and toolset. Beating up on college hockey is definitely a green flag for any prospect, but the level of play is insanely high in the NHL. Of the 74% that profile like Hutson and turned out as stars, how many were of his stature? I am a fan of Hutson and of Casey, but it is important to understand the reality of being a small defenseman who has yet to make it.

Edit: I'll also throw it out there that NHLe does not differentiate between NCAA divisions, which biases it against BIG10 prospects and towards those in weaker divisions</div></div>

Thanks for the feedback. Of course, these models have their limitations, but you have to respect the fact that they're the best available tools to estimate potential outcomes. This being said, I agree with what you’re inferring, a better educated guess would lie at the intersection point of different performance indicators.

On your 2nd point, I believe you’re referring to what can be called “intangibles”? To me, that’s precisely the point of a model like this one: if you want to draft an NHL player, give extra points to mature/gritty/physically imposing players if that suits you, but if you’re looking to draft a star player, stick to the facts and look at past production.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars 2023 à 11 h 15
Sujet: HockeyProspecting ratings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>These numbers completely perplex me.

Cole Caufield has already proven, at least to me, that he's close to star quality already. He's so good that you guys shouldn't entertain any thoughts of trading him. Meanwhile, Hutson isn't even signed yet. Moreover, Caufield and Hutson are both undersized -- Caufield is two inches shorter but 15 pounds heavier, yet Hutson plays the more physically demanding position, which also requires longer to learn. (Some forwards never develop more than one side to their game, as Mike Hoffman's career attests, but the Paul Coffey days are over.) So quantifying their respective chances of "reaching star player status" as Hutson having a 50% better shot than the already-tried-and-almost-proven Caufield is just cuckoo. Let me put it another way: anyone who'd rather have the untried Dragicevic than the nicely developing Kaiden Guhle has a, shall we say, peculiar analytic taste.</div></div>

You’re right, choosing an unproven commodity like Dragicevic over an established player like Guhle makes no sense if your goal is to ice an NHL team in 2023, but that’s a moot point. I’m no expert on the matter, but if I got this right what the model is saying is that you wouldn’t be fooling yourself to expect a better production from Dragicevic at the NHL level provided his development keeps trending in the right direction – he’s been significantly outperforming Guhle in his D-1 and D0 years.

The Caufield vs. Hutson ratings don’t shock me: Caufield’s 47% chances to become a star player are still pretty darn good. Plus that doesn’t seem far off if you look at his actual production: he had an OK D+1 season, a fantastic D+2 season, but has regressed a bit in his D+3 season. Yes, that was mostly on coaching, but its just logical that the model shows some reserves as to whether he’ll reach star level production. As to whether the Hutson hype will translate to the NHL is totally up in the air, but I believe the model does factor in position played, size and weight.
Forum: Montreal Canadiens20 déc. 2022 à 15 h 11
Sujet: Habs future thoughts
Here's what I posted a couple of days ago in a ACGM on a related topic. The Stanley Cup Checklist I was referring to was published by the Athletic back in March.

https://theathletic.com/3186979/2022/03/16/stanley-cup-contender-checklist-how-does-each-playoff-team-stack-up/
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3764415

"As of now, here's what the Stanley Cup checklist looks like (&lt;23yo established players only):
Elite first-line center that’s among the very best players in the world: N/A
Elite first-line winger to support the elite center: N/A
Top-line center to play behind the elite center: Suzuki
Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines: Caufield, Dach
Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six: Slafkovsky, N/A
Elite No. 1 defenseman: N/A
A second No. 1 defenseman to play behind him: Guhle
A top-pairing defenseman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2: Harris
Another top-pairing caliber defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair: Xhekaj
A top-10 caliber starting goaltender: N/A

Obviously, this picture is subjective and could look a lot different a year from now. The point is: even if the Habs luck out at the draft or with the development of their players/prospects, they'll still be nowhere near contender status - there's just too many important holes to fill. Plus, other teams are way ahead of the curve in terms of roster construction - NJD, BUF and DAL all fare better, and you could probably add MIN and OTT to this list.

So hang on Habs fans, relax and enjoy the losses."

Now, I could've added a couple of nuances to this analysis:
1. Most SC contenders have holes in their lineup, but perennial contenders don't - think about COL in 2022, TBL in 2021, PIT in 2009, DET in 2008, etc.
2. Luck can do lots of good things to middling teams, like it did for the 2020-21 Habs, but I'm not interested in riding the probabilities; I wan't my favorite team to be among the league's very best for many consecutive years.

My point is, there's no point in predicting the future roster around this group of players, it's not strong enough, well it is to me anyway. It's missing 4 foundational pieces: an elite C, and elite winger, and elite D and a top-10 goalie. To fill these holes by 2025, GMKH would have to draft/develop 4 star-level players in a 2.5 years span. How is that likely to happen?
Forum: NHL20 sept. 2022 à 9 h 35
Sujet: 2022-23 NHL Pre-Season Discussion Thread #1: The Boys Are Back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MatthewsFan</b></div><div><div class="tweet"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I don't think there's a goal in NHL history that better sums up what I love about this game than PK Subban's breakaway tally against Boston in the 2014 playoffs. The suspense, the rise to the occasion, the raw energy that still radiates off it the moment when you rewatch it today <a href="https://t.co/kZk2ZLUpM5" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/kZk2ZLUpM5</a></p>— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/1264739183480000513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 25, 2020</a></blockquote>

</div>

Electric!!

Great career</div></div>

I was there, right behind the goalie... I'll never forget that moment. Thanks PK for all the fun!
Forum: Montreal Canadiens8 juin 2022 à 21 h 0
Sujet: Elite Stanley Cup Contention Plan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Thanks for the response. This is literally the first positive response I've received... so it's much appreciated.

I don't think they ALL need to be added through the draft though. You have to add the Elites through the draft but once you have those in place, players will want to sign with the Habs if only to have the chance to play with those Elites, right? It's also interesting that Stanley Cup winners seem to have 4 players playing at an Elite level but most playoff teams don't. You can make it deep in the playoffs but when you come up against the Lightning... you are always out-gunned.

Elite Center - Stamkos/Point
Elite Winger - Kucherov
Elite Dman - Hedman
Elite Goalie - Vasilevsky</div></div>

You're welcome! I myself find it somewhat difficult to find positive reactions on this site. Most answers to proposals are like "this would never happen LMFAO!" while the reality is none of us have any Idea of what's really going on in the head of the GMs. But there are articulated users on CapFriendly, they're rare, but they'll come, hang on!

As for what you're saying, I think you're right, you've got to get the foundational pieces first to attract the complimentary ones. Which again, points to patiently building through the draft.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai 2022 à 9 h 41
Sujet: Jeff Marek trade proposal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Habs4ever</b></div><div>I’ve never met him and know very little about him. I know he was involved in baseball. So not sure, if you are wondering how he will do in hockey. Now you might think I’m name dropping again but Roger Neilson was a very good friend of mine and I did over a dozen camps with him. His start in coaching was not in hockey. So people can cross over.

I know there are plenty of liars online but with God as my witness I was heavily involved in hockey and was paid to do it. I used to use my real name online but some people called the team I was working for and were rude and annoying to the OHL team. I still enjoy the game and do contract work. I could be full time but my wife and I enjoy Florida too much in the winters. I have nothing to gain on here. I’m not selling anything, not asking for money, not arguing or making fun of anyone.

I grew up a Habs fan from my dad &amp; grandad. A few of my friends played for Habs &amp; they would also like to come on capfriendly but they also get mocked. One of them won the cup in 93 and he got mocked. He lasted 3 days on here. So it is what it is.</div></div>

As a hockey/Habs fan, I value your posts quite a lot. You're one of the rare users on this site whose contributions offer some form of perspective on what's happening behind the scenes, and I make sure to read as much of your posts as possible - with 4 young kids, that's hard! 🙂
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai 2022 à 9 h 30
Forum: Montreal Canadiens22 févr. 2022 à 11 h 41
Sujet: Montréal Canadiens Season Discussion Thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>I also think we should rebuild but not the Arizona way, that's a bit too scorched earth, key players like Caufield, Anderson, Suzuki, Romanov, maybe Lehkonen/Evans/Pezzetta/Pitlick, Poehling, can be kept and we sell every year the assets we need to/have a good offer for</div></div>

If the objective is to lose, keeping good players around will do nothing but hurt the process.

Arizona had so many things going wrong for them over the last decade, you don't really want to use this franchise as a comparison point. Yes, it didn't quite workout for Buffalo and Edmonton, but they also had their shares of management problems, and let's face it, they're not the most attractive destinations for top ranked UFAs. That isn't the case with Montreal. There's a lot of players out there that would love to play for this storied franchise - if the media could just cut the players some slack, but that's a different story. Pittsburgh, Chicago and Tampa should be the model.
Forum: Montreal Canadiens22 févr. 2022 à 9 h 56
Sujet: Montréal Canadiens Season Discussion Thread
Impressive what a 3 games winning streak can do... Is it still pertinent to use the word rebuild? Yes, please!!! Enough with the resets ans the rebuilds on the fly! This team bas been on a Cup drought for 30 years, maybe it's time for a change to the master plan?! Let's get away from the urge to capitalize on the team's assets now, tear it down and patiently layout the foundation like perennial contenters in the cap era do. Suzuki, Caufield and Romanov are good young promizing players, but on the ideal world they would be complementary pieces on a championship team. We need a stronger core of 3-4 all-stars, à la Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Fleury or Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman/Vasilievsky. And to build that core, we need to finish dead last AT LEAST 3 years in a row. And we need to trade all 24+ years old assets into futures, now. Anderson is on a tear and his value is on the rise? Good, time to sell! That's my opinion anyway.