Modifié 7 mars 2023 à 16 h 21
As much as I love Bader's work, keep in mind that his model is limited by three main factors:
1. All that is predicted for is point production. He is only predicting how many points a player will put up. A "star" is just a player who passes a certain career scoring threshold. Slafkovsky, though I personally am not high on him, may bring things that don't show on the scoresheet. JFresh's prospect equivelency model does not have this limitation and measures stars based on WAR.
2. Top prospects often have obvious potential that is not reflected in their production. Past the second round, or even the late first, you could blindly draft based on Bader's model and be very successful. At the top of the draft, however, you should put far more stock in the eye test. Fantilli is, without question, the second best player available in the draft. Carlsson, who you mention as being relatively poorly rated by Bader, should unequivocally be among the top picks of the draft.
3. All that is measured is point production. Hutson is an excellent prospect, I will not object to that, but just like NTDP teammate Seamus Casey, there is a possibility that his game does not translate due to his size and toolset. Beating up on college hockey is definitely a green flag for any prospect, but the level of play is insanely high in the NHL. Of the 74% that profile like Hutson and turned out as stars, how many were of his stature? I am a fan of Hutson and of Casey, but it is important to understand the reality of being a small defenseman who has yet to make it.
Edit: I'll also throw it out there that NHLe does not differentiate between NCAA divisions, which biases it against BIG10 prospects and towards those in weaker divisions