Shayna Goldman and Saad Yousuf had a fantastic article on the Athletic where they analyzed the structure of a Stanley Cup contending team based on 10 years of empirical data - https://theathletic.com/3334111/2022/05/26/non-playoff-teams-stanley-cup-contenders/

The central thesis is that a team needs the following role players ranked by their GSVA value compared to the league average:

Elite Center GSVA 3.6
Elite Winger GSVA 3.3
Elite Defensemen GSVA 2.4
Elite Goalie GSVA 3.0

Top Line Center GSVA 2.2
Top Line Winger GSVA 2.4
Top Line Winger GSVA 1.9
Number 1 Defensemen GSVA 1.4

Top 6 Forward GSVA 1.5
Top 6 Forward GSVA 1.2
Top Pair Defensemen GSVA 1.3
Top Pair Defensemen GSVA 0.8

The Habs are currently SO FAR from this. We maybe have the following:

Elite Center - Shane Wright
Elite Winger - None
Elite Defensemen - None
Elite Goalie - None

Top Line Center - Nick Suzuki
Top Line Winger - Cole Caufield
Top Line Winger - None
Number 1 Defensemen - None

Top 6 Forward - Anderson
Top 6 Forward - None
Top Pair Defensemen - None
Top Pair Defensemen - Petry

The only players in our current prospect pool that have a CHANCE to take some of these positions are:

Guhle, Roy, Primeau, Romanov - but none of these guys are likely to become an Elite.

The thing is it's nearly impossible to trade for an Elite player unless you trade another Elite in response, so any rebuild should start by targeting all the Elite Roles and then building from there. If you don't have Elites the only way to get them is to Draft them, and typically in the top 10 (though gems can be found here and there). This is why I advocate for trading any and every Habs player in order to access Elites.

It's obviously an unpopular approach, but based on what we know of the next 2 drafts, it could be possible to fill all 4 of these roles in 2 years by getting creative. Here's the target:

Elite Center - Bedard/Fantilli
Elite Winger - Cole Caufield (Hopefully)
Elite Defensemen - Simon Nemec
Elite Goalie - Primeau (Maybe) / Tyler Brennan

Seattle isn't giving up Thier chance at a top 3 pick next year. No bottom dwelling team is giving up a 2023 first rounder.

Not sure about that. Maybe they believe in Wright? Maybe they want to make a big marketing push around a guaranteed 1st overall pick. Wright can actually play next year... While Nemec is a bit of a project.

I think when you are willing to trade 1OA... Lots of impossible things become possible.

not when the player for 2023 is connor bedard and better than wright

The entire top 3 next year are possibly better then Wright. And I only say possibly because maybe Fantilli ends up in the same tier as Wright but I think he has a higher ceiling

I agree that Caufield might develop into that elite winger, Guhle has a slight chance of being a elite defenseman, if not, top pair, but habs are indeed needing a true elite goalie after price is gone. although we do have a couple prospects showing some good signs, like dobes. and yes no bottom 10 team will give up a 1st rounder in 23, but we can trade up by accumulating a few more 1st rounder and hopefully get fantilli to play lw for suzuki and caufield, he's better than slaf. roy and wright might make a good pair in the future, going to need a rw after anderson slows down, might try and get kravtsov from nyr by grabbing nemeth as a cap dump after petry is gone and bury nemeth in minors or a healthy scratch and let the kids play. any of the top 3 next year is a big W for habs.

I do not agree that the trade is impossible. Maybe Seattle think they are going to see a few guys take a big step... Wright will slot right in... They deploy their incredible cap space to bring in exciting players like Forsberg and Klingberg because they traded for the 1OA and those guys wanna play with Shane Wright.
Why is it impossible to believe they bet on themselves to not finish in the bottom 10 next season?

I would rather have a top 6 of fantilli-suzuki-caufield and roy-wright-kravtsov and hopefully barron exceeds expectation and developps into a top 2 d along w guhle and romanov as a top 4 d, maybe add mailloux and u just need a goalie (either primeaux or dobes) and depth.

I really don't think those kids will become what you expect them to sir. But I sure hope I'm wrong!

Hi, I started a thread on the exact same subject a couple of weeks ago when the article came out. To me, it speaks volumes that, of all the teams in the NHL, the Habs are the only team that have zero of the 12 aforementioned pieces. Put differently, even if the 5 top prospects on the organisation (Wright/Slaf/Cooley, Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, maybe Romanov?) reach their potential, the team would still be 7 pieces away from reaching contenders status. That is to say, Habs should embrace the tank; they're not 2 or 3 players away from being championship material, and as you've pointed out, elite pieces are added through the draft.

Thanks for the response. This is literally the first positive response I've received... so it's much appreciated.

I don't think they ALL need to be added through the draft though. You have to add the Elites through the draft but once you have those in place, players will want to sign with the Habs if only to have the chance to play with those Elites, right? It's also interesting that Stanley Cup winners seem to have 4 players playing at an Elite level but most playoff teams don't. You can make it deep in the playoffs but when you come up against the Lightning... you are always out-gunned.

Elite Center - Stamkos/Point
Elite Winger - Kucherov
Elite Dman - Hedman
Elite Goalie - Vasilevsky

You're welcome! I myself find it somewhat difficult to find positive reactions on this site. Most answers to proposals are like "this would never happen LMFAO!" while the reality is none of us have any Idea of what's really going on in the head of the GMs. But there are articulated users on CapFriendly, they're rare, but they'll come, hang on!

As for what you're saying, I think you're right, you've got to get the foundational pieces first to attract the complimentary ones. Which again, points to patiently building through the draft.

This gives me a good idea for a post!

Because that isn't how Ron Francis approaches team-building. He's a conservative GM.