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Uberrima_Fides

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Devils du New Jersey
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Forum: Armchair-GM16 mai 2023 à 17 h 10
Sujet: Some small summer moves
I'm not sure why you're getting pushback on the Sharangovich deal -- of all the trades you picked from other ACGMs, it's probably the most realistic. And in most cases, value isn't the main issue.

The Blackwood-Garland trade is a cool idea, but unfortunately Blackwood's $3.36M Qualifying Offer probably makes it unfeasible. Vancouver's cap problems are the main reason that Garland is available, and-- adding that $3.36M QO with the $1.45M retention --they'd only save $140k in this trade. Plus, given Blackwood's inconsistency and injury issues, his expensive QO means he's unlikely to be qualified in the first place: the Canucks can probably pick him up as a UFA if they like him.

While the 12th overall pick from Ottawa is nothing to scoff at, I don't think it's enough to close the gap between Bratt and Crouse. Even if we set aside value, Bratt's skating and skill make him a far better fit with the Devils than Crouse would be. And with New Jersey, Crouse wouldn't get the same kind of ice time (especially on the PP) that allowed him to put up solid numbers in Arizona. Crouse is the better penalty killer, but the Devils already have several high-end PKers -- and Crouse wouldn't be much of a defensive upgrade at even strength, where Bratt doesn't get enough credit for being a fantastic two-way winger.

Sean Durzi is worth more than a 3rd-rounder, but value isn't really the issue with that trade -- after all, New Jersey has enough assets that they could offer more if they wanted to. The bigger problem is that the Devils probably wouldn't want to offer fair value. With Hamilton, Marino, Nemec, and Walsh in the system, they don't have much incentive to pay top dollar for a young right-handed defenseman.

I'm torn about the idea of signing O'Reilly. He's a former playoff MVP and he was good with Toronto, but the Devils' game is built around speed and O'Reilly is one of the slowest players in the NHL. Especially given ROR's price tag, my gut says that New Jersey would prefer to re-sign speedy Erik Haula for that defensive 3C role.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 mai 2023 à 16 h 37
Sujet: Back to playoffs in 2024
The Barabanov trade probably wouldn't be legal. Since that 2024 1st round pick might also be San Jose's (depending on whether New Jersey fulfills the condition from the Meier trade) -- I don't think the Devils would be allowed to use the same pick in 2 separate trades, even if they were both trades to the same team. What would happen if New Jersey fulfills the original condition and makes the conference finals?

Even if the trade is legal, I'm not sure why the Devils would be so interested in Barabanov. He'd be a short-term offensive upgrade over younger internal options like Yegor Sharangovich or Alex Holtz, but IDK if he'd be a good fit for New Jersey. He lacks the speed that the Devils covet, and he doesn't have the defense or physicality to make up for it.

Ryan O'Reilly lacks speed to an even greater extent. Given his price tag (and the fact that he's coming off a down season) I think the Devils would prefer to retain Erik Haula, a much faster player who fills the same two-way 3C role as O'Reilly.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2023 à 16 h 4
Sujet: Bedard Year 2
Setting Auston Matthews aside, this is too optimistic about Chicago's prospects. Lukas Reichel will be in the NHL next year, while Alex Vlasic and Cole Guttman may have a shot as well. Kevin Korchinski and Nolan Allan could be in the NHL by 2024-25 (although even top defense prospects often need some AHL seasoning). As for the others. . .

Frank Nazar and Colton Dach are good prospects, but they haven't quite been good enough to suggest that they'll be ready for full-time NHL duty within the next 2 years. That goes especially for Nazar: he missed almost the entire 2022-23 season, and he was just okay when healthy. The same goes for Drew Commesso -- he seems to be better than his statistics would suggest, but he'll still only be 23 in 2024-25. Only the most elite goalie prospects are ready to be NHL starters by age 23, and Commesso is not one of those goalies.

Michal Teplý still has NHL potential, but he doesn't seem close to NHL-ready right now.

Stanislav Demin was not a top defenseman in the NCAA this year. . . despite being 23 years old, which made him one of the older players in college hockey. Chicago is highly unlikely to offer him a contract, much less promote him to the NHL at any point.

Samuel Savoie is an undersized forward who has never scored at a point-per-game pace in the QMJHL (the weakest and highest-scoring of the CHL leagues). He was 5th on his own junior team in scoring this season. Unless Savoie breaks out in a big way next year, Chicago is unlikely to even sign him (much less play him in the NHL straight out of juniors).

Maxim Golod turns 23 this summer, near the age where forwards reach their peak. And he still hasn't graduated from the ECHL. I'll be shocked if Chicago even re-signs him this summer. If he makes the NHL at all (let alone making it just 2 years from now) he'd be one of the NHL's most unexpected underdog stories.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2023 à 15 h 39
Sujet: bedsy bring the hawks to cup
This doesn't really work.

The roster wouldn't have more than an outside chance at the playoffs, but it also wouldn't be bad enough for a high draft pick. Chicago's stock of good forward prospects starts and ends with Frank Nazar and Lukas Reichel (who isn't on this roster for some reason). Unless we think those guys are good enough to form a contending roster around Bedard, the Hawks still need another couple years of lottery picks. And thanks to the DeBrincat offer sheet, Chicago wouldn't even have their own 1st-round picks for the next 2 years (in addition to losing their 2nd and 3rd round picks for next year).

Given that Bedard will likely reach several performance bonus benchmarks, this also puts Chicago too close to the salary cap ceiling -- if Bedard ends up qualifying for more than $1M in bonuses, the
team would be docked salary cap space for the following season.

Mrázek is worse than the goalies that New Jersey already has, and he's not worth his $3.8M cap hit (much less his $4.4M actual salary for next year).

While the Canucks need to shed salary, Kurashev is barely an NHLer and Boeser is coming off his best season since before his dad fell ill. It'd take more than a 2nd, a late 3rd, and a 5th to make the trade worthwhile for Vancouver.

Fleury is probably expendable for the Wild, but his statistics this year are almost identical to the numbers he posted with Chicago last year -- when he was traded for a 2nd round pick. Minnesota would need to be desperate to deal him for a 4th.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 mars 2022 à 14 h 48
Sujet: Buying Groceries Bought A Horse
I'm not sure about the Chicago trade. Acquiring Kubalik is an interesting idea-- given that Edmonton lacks the flexibility to make any major trades, grabbing reclamation projects is probably the way to go --but Kubalik is too expensive for the Oilers. Retained salary would lower his price tag for this season, but his Qualifying Offer is $4M. The Oilers could decline to qualify him (which would make him a UFA), but that'd essentially make him a rental. And given his struggles this season (not to mention his cap hit, even after the $500,000 retention), Kubalik isn't very attractive as a mid-price rental.

The premise of the Buffalo trade makes sense, but it'd probably be someone other than Benson going back in exchange for Hägg. The concern is less about value an more about fitting with Buffalo's needs. With Quinn and Peterka both appearing ready for permanent promotion to the NHL, the Sabres just don't have room for another waiver-eligible forward unless he's already a full-time NHLer. Ater all, Benson cleared waivers just 2 days ago -- there's a reason that Buffalo didn't claim him.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juill. 2020 à 18 h 32
Sujet: OTT would you do this
Caggiula is a useful enough depth forward, but Ottawa already has more depth forwards than they know what to do with. Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Logan Brown, and Rudolfs Balcers all scored over a point-per-game in the AHL, while Nicholas Paul finally graduated to the NHL. Some of those players also had extended NHL call-ups, and most of these forwards will be on the Senators' NHL roster next season. Especially with Bobby Ryan healthy again, there's not much room for a guy like Caggiula. It's just not a good enough fit for the Senators (a rebuilding team) to justify trading back.

Florida might make for a better trade partner. They'll be right up against the cap (assuming they re-sign most of their UFAs), but they don't have many inexpensive young players who are ready for depth roles in the NHL. A cheap, versatile forward like Cagiulla could fit into their bottom 6.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 mai 2020 à 21 h 13
Sujet: Kyle
Even if we assume that the value is fair, this trade fits neither the Devils' needs nor their timeline. I can see what you're going for, but ultimately the Devils' and Leafs' needs (i.e. defensive help) are too similar for this kind of trade to work.

As New Jersey attempts to complete their rebuild, they wouldn't trade their 23-year-old starter for a starter who turns 31 in October, and whose contract expires after next season. Blackwood is the Devils' present and future; even if Andersen is a clear upgrade (which, based on each goalie's numbers from the last two years, I'm unsure about), he does not fit the Devils' timeline. Regardless of how much value the Leafs send in return, the Devils are not likely to give up Blackwood without getting another goalie of the future.

Damon Severson was-- at 25 years old --the Devils' most-used defenseman in 2019-20. They may consider trading him in a package that includes Liljegren and a 1st, but only if they also receive some short-term help in the trade. Johnsson and Kapanen would provide that short-term help in theory, but in practice they would be redundant on New Jersey's roster. This season, middle-6 calibre wingers were just about the only thing that New Jersey had enough of. It's not that Severson is worth more than Liljegren, a 1st, Johnsson, and Kapanen-- in fact, you've probably overrated Severson in this trade. It's that Johnsson and Kapanen are of no use to the Devils.

As a side note, I don't think Severson is the defenseman that you want him to be; he probably won't satisfy Toronto's need for a rock-solid 1st pair RHD. Severson occasionally shows all the skills of a two-way dynamo, but he generally suffers from the same defects that have doomed Toronto's previous defensive projects: he's prone to disastrous lapses in judgement (both with and without the puck) and he often makes sub-optimal puck decisions when faced with pressure from opponents. Yes, Severson is more physical than Tyson Barrie or Jake Gardiner, and more dependable than Cody Ceci. But he's not the answer for Toronto, and he's not worth gutting the Leafs' middle 6. Similarly, Connor Carrick isn't exactly world-beater; I wouldn't be surprised if Liljegren is a better option as soon as next year.
Forum: Armchair-GM30 avr. 2019 à 17 h 47
Sujet: Moves with NYR VGK NJ
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>What should be changed? I don't know if Devils need Vatanen that much, but Killer is a decent 40-point winger and Stephens is a decent prospect.</div></div>

Unfortunately, the trade is both insufficient in value and incongruent with the Devils' needs.

First, on value: Even if Killorn is equal in value to Vatanen (which I'd disagree with), the Devils would give up the best, most NHL-ready prospect in this trade. Quenneville is a year older than Stephens, but he has been far more productive at the AHL level. Neither player is a top prospect, but Quenneville is a better bet to eventually play on an NHL bottom 6 (he will likely play on the Devils' fourth line in 2019-20). Ben Thomas has not shown NHL potential. The 3rd-round pick is not enough to bridge this gap, especially given that New Jersey also eats $2M of Cap in this trade; the Devils may have Cap space to spare, but that they'll still demand a premium to help other teams with their Cap problems.

Second, on need: To answer your question, the Devils do need Vatanen that much. He may be the best Defenseman on a team that lacks top Defensemen, and his ability to play either side of the ice has been invaluable. Meanwhile, New Jersey will have enough decent Forwards to fill out their middle-6 (especially with Hughes or Kappo on the way). If the team does need a middle-6 Forward, they could probably find one in Free Agency (one that may be cheaper than Killorn).

That being said, the Rangers trade is a cool concept. I don't know that the Rangers would give up a prospect in the deal (even if it means that they get less value from the Lightning), but the idea that Tampa could pay them to eat Callahan's contract is a good one.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 nov. 2018 à 16 h 39
Sujet: Getting better and younger
I don't think that any of those teams would accept those trades, except maybe Colorado.

The Blues-- who are 2nd-to-last in the standings --have little reason to trade their first round pick. Even if they did, they wouldn't exchange a lottery pick for Brandon Saad, who has 47 points in 104 games since his return to Chicago, and who comes with a $6M/Yr price tag. Tuulola is not a good enough prospect to make it worthwhile.

The Devils need help on the blueline, but the problem cannot be solved by a 3rd pairing player. The team has a glut of mediocre Defensemen, but few quality ones. They'd only make this problem worse if they got rid of Butcher and brought in Manning. I also don't see why they'd trade a young LHD and one of their only good Forward prospects in exchange for a bunch of picks that are two years or more away.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 nov. 2018 à 1 h 32
Sujet: Top 15 Centers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>MacKinnon is exiting, but him being like the 2nd best center is spreading like the plague</div></div>

If loving MacKinnon is like spreading the plague, then y'all better get ready to vomit blood cause this Oriental Rat Flea is coming to spread the good news. Sure, he took a few years to become elite, but like disease-carrying Mongolian invaders, Nathan has <em>arrived</em>. Nathan Mackinnon may not have been the leading cause of death from 1347-1351, but he is leading the NHL in primary points-per-game from 2017-present. It's like that old children's rhyme says:

"Skates rings around defenders,
picks pockets, and intends to
pass it, shoot it,
Goalies fall down!"

I sure am glad that the planets aligned to unleash the scourge of Nathan Mackinnon unto the NHL, cause I go miasmic whenever I see that boy dangle. There must really be something in the air in Cole Harbour.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 nov. 2018 à 16 h 3
Sujet: NJD Fair Value
Maybe I'm just an overprotective Devils fan, but I wouldn't be a fan of that Schneider trade. It has less to do with the general concept of the trade, and more with me thinking that Zykov isn't worth anything; his perceived value is based entirely on one good AHL season, where his numbers were grotesquely inflated by a lucky shooting percentage and Power Play Goals. Numbers will always tell you that the Forwards who maintain their production are the ones whose production is built on 5v5 scoring and a shooting percentage of around 10%.

Last year, Zykov had 33 goals, 54 points, and 112 shots in 63 games. This comes out to a shooting percentage of 29.5%; among players who took at least 100 shots in a given season, that is by far the highest AHL shooting percentage of the last decade. If Zykov had shot at his previous career high of 13.9%, he would have scored roughly 16 goals and 37 points: a G/Gm of .25 and a P/Gm of .58. Not to mention that Zykov scored fewer than half his Goals at 5v5, and that he benefited from AHL star linemates.

Simply put, Zykov's 2017-18 season-- the reason that he's thought to be a future NHL scorer --was a total fluke.

If Zykov isn't worth anything, than the Devils would be giving up Zacha to make (at best) a lateral move in net, save $1.85M in Cap 9 (which they already have enough of), and gain a 2nd + 7th. Not to mention Schneider's full NTC and Darling's partial NTC.

The Nylander trade seems fine; maybe it's a little off somewhere, but the general idea seems realistic and fair.
Forum: New Jersey Devils21 nov. 2018 à 18 h 16
Sujet: What's Wrong With the Devils?
Even during that 4-0-0 run, flaws were masked by Kinkaid's hot streak. The Devils' system asks Defensemen to pinch regularly, even when it's risky. Last year, the Defensemen were largely successful when they pinched, and Forwards were quick to cover for them when things went poorly. This season, these pinches have been less successful, and the Forward have been a step behind on the backcheck. This is why, even in those dominant first four games, the Devils gave up quality chances.

The team has also been ineffectual in their own zone from day 1. Don't get me wrong, they're disciplined and structured on Defense, which limits the amount of quality chances they concede. My gripe is that they can't regain the puck once their opponents have it in the O-Zone. Opposition cycles last for entire shifts, which (on top often yielding Goals Against) tires the Devils and inevitably leads to mistakes. I don't know if this is because the players have been coached to be conservative on Defense, or if they aren't getting proper instruction on winning puck battles. My hunch is that whatever the strategic reason, it's exacerbated by the team's lack of size. Boyle, Severson, and Santini are the only players who can and do push anyone around; that makes it hard to disposes attackers of the puck.

Goaltending has also contributed to the losses. In those first 4 games, the Devils allowed 4 Goals on 103 shots (for a save % of 96.12). Since then, they have allowed 51 Goals on 483 shots (for a save % of 89.44), with Kinkaid stopping of 336 of 372 shots (90.32%) and Schneider stopping 96 of 111 (86.49%).

Depth scoring has also been an issue. While the top line has cooled down since the beginning of the season, they've still done well (at least when Hischier was healthy); since game 4, that trio has combined for a respectable 12 Goals in 15 Games (even as Hischier mas missed 4 matches). Meanwhile, players who weren't named Hall, Palmieri, or Hischier scored 10 goals (2.5 Goals/Gm) in the first 4 games of the year, but only 26 Goals in the 15 games since then (1.7 Goals/Gm). In a league where 19 teams are scoring at least 3 Goals-per-game, the Devils can't win without more production from their Dmen and depth Forwards.

All that being said, I still think the team can turn it around (although probably not enough to make the Playoffs). The Defensive issues aren't likely to be fixed without better personnel, but Goaltending and depth scoring may improve. Even if Kinkaid and Schneider return to their mediocre 2017-18 numbers, the Devils will win more games. The Johansson - Zacha - Bratt line has played well, while Johansson and Wood (who are both currently snake-bitten by poor shooting % and low on-ice shooting %) need only for their bad luck to recede. If those two players catch some breaks and Nico returns to health, the Devils' offense should be competitive.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 nov. 2018 à 2 h 2
Sujet: Blues next moves
I guess the value might be fair, but what motivation would either team have to make this trade?

With the standings as close as they are, the season is still salvageable for the Blues. If not, the roster can still compete next year (especially if they land Coach Q). If the Blues <em>should</em> blow the team up (or at least jettison 'impact players'), why only trade Pietrangelo and Steen?

I may be wrong, but it seems like you included John Quenneville because that would entice Coach Q to sign on. Even if nepotism could persuade Coach Q, he and John are only 2nd cousins (which means that their parents are cousins); these probably aren't people that share holiday meals.

The Devils are a re-tooling team who are doing just as poorly as the Blues. Why would they trade Smith (their top prospect) and Severson (one of their only impactful u25 players) for Pietrangelo (who has two years before UFA) and Steen (who turns 35 this March)?

Pietrangelo and Steen both have full NTCs, and they've both been in St.Louis for almost a decade. Why would they waive their NTCs for a trade to the re-tooling Devils?
Forum: Armchair-GM27 janv. 2018 à 2 h 20
Sujet: Why not?
<strong>Arizona Trade</strong>: You're right that Chayka likes the idea of a steady top-pairing veteran to play with OEL (after all, that's why they traded for Hjalmarsson). Now that the team's blue line and net are healthy though, Defense is of less concern than Offense. Even if Arizona wants to add veterans, I don't see them swapping major Forwards for a Defenseman.

<strong>Toronto Trade</strong>: If you're right that Toronto needs to trade Nylander (or someone similar), they wouldn't be interested in a package of Grabner, Nash, and a couple picks in return. Nylander is a 1st line Forward (which his 5v5 numbers show) at 21 years old, and Leivo is a wildcard who could be fit for a middle 6/PP specialist role; together, the two of them are worth far more than a pair of rental middle 6 wingers, a 2nd, and a 4th. Plus, the only reason Leivo gets scratched in the first place is that Toronto has a logjam at Forward; why would they want a pair of rental Forwards?

<strong>Carolina Trade</strong>: You said it yourself: Nick Holden is bad. TVR is better, younger, and cheaper than him. The Hurricanes don't have any reason to make that trade

<strong>Vancouver Trade</strong>: There's a year-and-a-half left on Zuccarello's contract, and this season is already lost for the Canucks. Even if Vancouver wants to trade picks/prospects for veterans, I don't think they'd forfeit a lottery pick in this draft for the last year of Zuccarello's contract.