Bust

Jackets decline. Gibson is a worse contract than Elvis. So this is essentially laine, Kent Johnson, and Gibson’s negative value for zegras

Incredibly hard pass on all of this for ANA. If we are trading away Zegras it’s because management doesn’t want a Kent Johnson type. Laine has a lot to prove before he’s a target at all, and his contract carries a lot of weight for that to be true. We absolutely keep Gibby over Merz

ANA isn’t a money machine to dump Price’s LTIR. We’ll take Tuch for a pick around where he was drafted, and maybe ANA would consider moving back in the draft but this isn’t the deal to convince them

I don't really see the point of either of those trades for any team involved.

-Gibson for Merzlikins can be debated both ways, but there's not a great reason for either team to do this. Ducks aren't getting what they'd want in a Zegras deal and Columbus isn't getting what they'd want for one or both of Laine and Johnson

-Ducks aren't getting great value for moving down from 3rd to 5th and don't care much about extra picks later on in the draft, and Montreal doesn't really need to move Price right now or pay to do so and the difference between 3rd and 5th this draft is not all that significant

We're not trading Zegras for Johnson, and we're not trading Gibson for Laine and Merzlikins.

Third overall for fifth overall plus the Winnipeg first is right by the draft-pick-value charts, but pick #26 doesn't have all that much appeal to a team that already owns pick #31/#32 and pick #35. The trade back would be more interesting if Chicago takes Levshunov at #2 and the other first is the Calgary/Florida pick. You could even include Tuch and we would add the Boston 2024 second. The rest of that package is no real use to us, let alone adequate compensation for the Edmonton first.

Gibson has been the clearly worse goalie in all but one of Elvis' NHL seasons in terms of GSAx except for 2022-23, an outlier year for Elvis and one of the worst goaltending years in recent memory. Being older on a worse contract makes this a nonstarter. I honestly have no idea why Gibson is appealing to teams when Elvis is an immoveable buyout candidate.

Johnson for Zegras doesn't make sense as a swap, both are too far from a finished project and too similar players to justify a swap. Adding Laine makes Columbus hang up.

Because he's clearly not the worse goalie, seems pretty obvious. Elvis has had the luxury of playing behind a better team pretty much the entire length of their current contracts. Go look at the year on year standings. 2020-2023 we're pretty much active tanking years under Dallas Eakins.

19-20 cbj 81 ana 67
2020. Cbj 48 ana 43
21-22 cbj 81 ana 76
22-23 cbj 59 ana 58
23-24 cbj 66 ana 59

Eye of the beholder. Both team's fans probably don't want to hear this but this is what I have watched, Anaheim more than Columbus as I have seasons in Calgary.
Gibson is a good veteran that is better than his numbers. Zegras is great but probably more valuable as a trade chip gamble at this point.
Elvis is not that good and over-payed. KJ's value is to swap a bet ie. Zegras. Laine might be cooked, but he might bounce back and be a great scorer again...depends on his drive which is questionable. I would not be surprised that he goes to a team like Anaheim and lights it up for a year or two which might lead to a buyer's remorse contract.

Except he is, even though it's one of my hotter takes.

GSAx/60 over those same years, which accounts for team performance in front of them:
19-20 Elvis -0.073; Gibson -0.359
20-21 Elvis -0.112; Gibson -0.219
21-22 Elvis +0.072; Gibson -0.265
22-23 Elvis -0.996 (the outlier, obvious yikes); Gibson -0.230
23-24 Elvis -0.167; Gibson -0.225

I'll give you this, Gibson is more consistent, but the floor and ceiling are both lower. I also don't know how you look at a single year over that stretch where the teams were separated by more than 7 points and think that's a clear advantage. Columbus is right near the bottom of the league in team defense with Anaheim.

I'm not even going to argue that Elvis has any kind of trade value, I just find it frustrating that Gibson somehow gets significantly more respect league-wide when their numbers aren't that far off. It boggles my mind that anyone would want to trade for a 30-year-old goalie making $6.4M who hasn't been able to reach even league-average performance in the last 5 years.

Its very hard to make an eye of the beholder of argument when all teams involved disagree. Even putting aside team biases, you're not considering actual team needs and situations.

-The Ducks are loaded with picks and prospects/young players, especially at forward and LD. If they're moving Zegras they're probably looking at someone that plays a different style or a RD. If they're adding a more veteran forward for any reason, its not going to be bet on a guy like Laine, its going to be someone that can help their young players mature their games or someone that is not as much of a bet. There's no reason for them to swap Gibson and Merzlikins if the plan is Dostal moving forward anyways, they can just stick with what they have.

-Columbus actually has guys with offensive talent and questionable defence at forward and are plenty young themselves. They're not really a team that would be interested in Zegras, and the adds they're making for almost no improvement doesn't make sense.

-Even if Montreal cared about money, Price's contract is insured. They don't need the cap space and the difference between 3rd and 5th in this years draft is pretty insignificant, so there's no point in them making a trade like this now.

All these trades do is shuffle the deck chairs. Maybe one team might prefer a player or prospect over the other, but it doesn't actually address any needs of any team.