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Which is a bigger risk

Créé par: KentMcNally
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 19 mars 2024
Publié: 19 mars 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I am curious about which team thinks this trade is a bigger risk, especially when one considers all of the factors (salary, length of contract, injury history and the potential of the player to produce in the future).
Montreal gets a guy that is locked in longer term (which could be good or bad) but has a suspect shoulder.
Ottawa gets the cheaper option (saving $4,6M) and could choose not to re-sign Dach if he does not pan out for the remaining 3 years on his contract. Dach also has his own injury concerns.

Who wins this trade and why?
Transactions
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2024
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2025
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2026
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2483 500 000 $80 397 916 $1 170 000 $4 035 000 $3 102 084 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 8
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 7
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 900 000 $2 900 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
835 000 $835 000 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
AG, AD
RFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
775 000 $775 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
812 500 $812 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
7 950 000 $7 950 000 $
C
UFA - 7
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
775 000 $775 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
766 667 $766 667 $
DD
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
890 000 $890 000 $
G
RFA - 2
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867 500 $867 500 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
DG
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
828 333 $828 333 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
762 500 $762 500 $
DD
UFA - 1

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19 mars à 10 h 58
#1
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There is no trade...
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19 mars à 11 h 2
#2
ht42
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I think a repetitive shoulder injury is a higher-risk than what Dach haved. Don't forget that Dach have been operated by one of the most renowned surgeries in the world for this type of injury.
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19 mars à 11 h 5
#3
Once a Kings Fan Too
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
There is no trade...

I'm guessing he's talking about Thomas Chabot for Kirby Dach . . .
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19 mars à 11 h 22
#4
HockeyLeagueThreads
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I'm guessing he's talking about Thomas Chabot for Kirby Dach . . .


It's a Dach and Norris swap. That said, the bigger risk is for the Habs to take on Norris. His multiple injuries, longer contract and higher cap hit make it that way.
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19 mars à 11 h 30
#5
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Fall River Habs
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Quoting: Bobrick
It's a Dach and Norris swap. That said, the bigger risk is for the Habs to take on Norris. His multiple injuries, longer contract and higher cap hit make it that way.


I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.
19 mars à 12 h 1
#6
Jesus Christ Is King
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Quoting: KentMcNally
I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.


All True, know who else does ? Shawn Monahan
If its me i bring back Dach's linemate so he can continue to grow as a Center in the 1 area he sucks in Faceoffs.
Also Slaf looks so sad doing his Pre Game handshake alone as he did with Monahan every day in his first successful season

If its me i offer Monahan any deal he wants on a 1 year deal, up to 5m at 2 years , 4m at 3 years ,or 3m for 5 years or some variation of that pays him and can be moved if needed. He's a rare Team Leader who leaves all our youth better without having to sacrifice his own success.
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19 mars à 12 h 5
#7
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I'd say that taking Norris isn't a major risk for the Habs, since they're not a team that's looking to spend to the cap anyways, so can probably afford to take on one of these "idk hopefully get 50 games out of him" type of players, especially with the potentially really high upside, or non-zero chance of very-long term LTIR. I'd think that honestly, the biggest risk involved is the Sens moving Norris, because you're moving a guy who has shown that he can be an elite goalscorer in the NHL just out of fear that he could reinjure. either way, interesting thoughts!
19 mars à 12 h 6
#8
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Salary and term aside , Dach has also proven that he can play on the wing and play a heavy game.
That being said both teams would prefer that their player gets and stays healthy and no swap is made.
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19 mars à 12 h 30
#9
Habs 2010
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Quoting: emoprettyboy
I'd say that taking Norris isn't a major risk for the Habs, since they're not a team that's looking to spend to the cap anyways, so can probably afford to take on one of these "idk hopefully get 50 games out of him" type of players, especially with the potentially really high upside, or non-zero chance of very-long term LTIR. I'd think that honestly, the biggest risk involved is the Sens moving Norris, because you're moving a guy who has shown that he can be an elite goalscorer in the NHL just out of fear that he could reinjure. either way, interesting thoughts!


The habs aren't spending to the cap because they are rebuilding. Taking on an 6 years × $8M player that can't stay healthy makes no sense.

Quoting: KentMcNally
I tend to agree. However, Norris does have a 35 goal season already under his belt, which is something exciting for a center as young as he is. If he could get healthy and produce near that rate I don't know whether Dach replicates that production. Plus, the Norris salary for a 35 goal scorer in the future is not bad.


Dach is also younger than Norris. In his first season with MTL he had 38 pts in 58 games... Norris had 35 pts in 56 games at the same age. Dach was expected to breakout this season before his injury. I'd take Dach at $3.4M over Norris at $7.9M any day and it isn't even close for me. Dach on his current contract is not a risk at all, unlike Norris and there is no upside to Norris over Dach as they arguably have similar potential.
19 mars à 13 h 10
#10
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the problem with Norris is he has crap luck, i mean to blow out your shoulder by hitting the center post on the back of the net because he turned to tight is just BS bad luck.
19 mars à 13 h 28
#11
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Whose a bigger risk? Pff ...who knows...... No way of knowing and its simply guessing at this point. I doubt either team wants to take that risk and would rather just stick with what they know.
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