Cards on the table, the Habs top 6 is one of the league's worst. We are missing 3 elements:
1) A healthy and productive Kirby Dach
2) A RW or Center to fill out the 2nd line
3) Two 3rd line players who can move up into the top 6 in case of injuries (We have 1 in Roy, we need a 2nd)
This would not bring us to elite status, but it would more than likely help us get back into the playoff picture.
So how do we get there? If you listen to the average hockey fan, you lose for a while, draft high, and then wait while your development program develops players.
That's not a terrible approach, but all that losing for 5+ years seems to scar certain players in ways we find hard to articulate. Once players get more focused on their personal performance in place of the team's, it's hard for them to make the shift back to a team-first mentality, especially since contracts are tied to production and media attention.
Hughes has been doing it with trades for age 22-24 players. He is acquiring any formerly top 6 touted players he can get his hands on in Dach & Newhook. Certainly a few acquisitions like that one make sense, provided you can find them. But, and there's a big but here, not all redemption projects work out. Dach & Newhook seem to be, but next year will tell us the truth about who they are. Are they injury prone 3rd liners, or are they top 6 players who took a non-standard development curve?
I would argue that the best way is to acquire savvy veterans between the age of 28-33. Now from experience I know most Habs fans are against this approach because they argue that the player(s) will decline while a part of the Habs organization and drag the team down into salary cap hell. While I admit it's hard to predict when veterans will decline, I would argue what you get far outweighs the risks. Here's my reasoning:
1) NHL players aged 21-27 need the presence of savvy vets to become the best version of themselves. Why do the Habs keep players like Matheson & Savard around? Why did the Habs start losing a whole lot more after they traded Monahan? Those guys are a port in the storm for rookie and journeyman players because they don't get shook as easily.
2) Studying Ottawa's case provides some color to this argument. In the past few years Ottawa acquired 4 notable players through trade and UFA: Giroux, DeBrincat, Chychrun, and Tarasenko. Of the four, which 2 were worth the price they paid to acquire them? If you answered Giroux & Tarasenko, you get the cookie!
3) Detroit is another great example. By contrast to teams like Buffalo, Anaheim, and Ottawa, Detroit's rebuild saw them acquire, through trade and free agency, a number of age 28-33 year old players, and contrary to popular opinion, the balance it has created in their lineup has helped them to be one of the top teams coming out of the east. Maybe there's something to learn here?
4) Comparing MTL's 2 biggest acquisitions to Ottawa's, Can you really argue that Dach & Newhook have been more effective that Giroux & Tarasenko? I would argue even Monahan had a bigger impact for this team than Dach & Newhook. Now I like Dach & Newhook more, because I believe IF they are supported by savvy veterans like Giroux & Tarasenko, they will be incredible hockey players for a lot of years, but they are NOT better players than those 3 today, and neither are Zegras, Lundell, or any of the other standard Habs fan trade targets.
I appreciate your perspective, but it seems to me that you completely ignored the meat of my post.
Do you think this team makes the Playoffs in 2024-25?
I dont think they do. Every team in the Atlantic is still better than this Habs team.
For me you bring those veterans in when the youth establishes themselves a bit more. Suzuki and Caufield are there already, Slaf looks like he will be there by 2025-26, Dach and Newhook are ?, Roy looks promising but they'll likely add another forward this draft and that's the real key to making that playoff push.
Which ever forward we draft this year and Reinbacher need to become regular NHLers before we start signing veterans to big money contracts. Once we know what we have in those two players the team can go and sign veterans for bottom 6 roles and leadership, not have to sign them for long term contracts that put them in important roles
I dont think they do. Every team in the Atlantic is still better than this Habs team.
For me you bring those veterans in when the youth establishes themselves a bit more. Suzuki and Caufield are there already, Slaf looks like he will be there by 2025-26, Dach and Newhook are ?, Roy looks promising but they'll likely add another forward this draft and that's the real key to making that playoff push.
Which ever forward we draft this year and Reinbacher need to become regular NHLers before we start signing veterans to big money contracts. Once we know what we have in those two players the team can go and sign veterans for bottom 6 roles and leadership, not have to sign them for long term contracts that put them in important roles
I think this 1st line can shut down ANY line in this league.
I think this 2nd line will score in bunches.
I think this is one of the better bottom 6 lineups of any team in the league.
I want to do the Detroit thing. I don't believe in the Buffalo, Ottawa, Anaheim approach.
I appreciate your perspective, but it seems to me that you completely ignored the meat of my post.
Do you think this team makes the Playoffs in 2024-25?
this team as you have it lined up does not make the playoffs in my opinion. I really dont like either of those signings they are far too long and will impact mtl's ability to lock up the young core over the next few seasons. Currently we are handcuffed by the dvorak, andersona and gallagher deals. I think theres are some younger player who would improve the roster, Mailloux and or Reinbacher probably leap frog Barron in the depth chart this summer, would expect one of them sliding in on RD. I also think Beck may make a similar jump next year to what Roy did this year and be a productive player, possibly on that third line. That would leave mtl with the most expensive 4th line in hockey but not much they can do about that for now. As for those two signing i would consider bringing Monahan back if its a 3-4 year deal, Stephanson is not a top line player by any means so that deal is just a lot of wasted money. With the habs picks and prospect they should be looking to make a splash on the trade market. Go after a RFA that a team is going to struggle to pay and bring in someone that fits the timeline of the core.
this team as you have it lined up does not make the playoffs in my opinion. I really dont like either of those signings they are far too long and will impact mtl's ability to lock up the young core over the next few seasons. Currently we are handcuffed by the dvorak, andersona and gallagher deals. I think theres are some younger player who would improve the roster, Mailloux and or Reinbacher probably leap frog Barron in the depth chart this summer, would expect one of them sliding in on RD. I also think Beck may make a similar jump next year to what Roy did this year and be a productive player, possibly on that third line. That would leave mtl with the most expensive 4th line in hockey but not much they can do about that for now. As for those two signing i would consider bringing Monahan back if its a 3-4 year deal, Stephanson is not a top line player by any means so that deal is just a lot of wasted money. With the habs picks and prospect they should be looking to make a splash on the trade market. Go after a RFA that a team is going to struggle to pay and bring in someone that fits the timeline of the core.
Stephenson is an elite and I mean ELITE defensive forward. He's better than Danault IMO. I would want that player on my playoff team ALL day. I lined him up with 2 other players who I think are fantastic defensively, because I think as a trio they will destroy the opposition in Expected Goals For.
Monahan, we know what he is. I assume you are worried he will get injured. I am worried that this team will look as inept as they have the past few weeks without him.
Both Monahan & Stephenson would be top 3 in forward scoring on this team this year, and they can both hit 50-65 points per season which is what you would expect out of them.
As to cap space:
In 2025-26 when they need to sign Slaf & Guhle, they will have 24M in cap space with the cap set to go up to 92M and Dvorak, Savard & RHP coming off the books.
In 2026-27, over and above any cap growth and leftover cap room from 2025-26, they will have Matheson coming off the books and it will be the right time to buy out Anderson and/or Gallagher if they need cap room and choose to do so. That summer they will need to resign Dach, Hutson, and any D they want to keep from Xhekaj, Mailloux, Barron.
I don't think these signings hamper the Habs in the way you think they do. These are great players who will help this team grow and gain experience in the playoffs.
I think MTL problems are more than Top 6
I think bringing in Stephenson or Monahan back but, not both.
The defense not only needs to get older but someone needs to become a #1D and I'm not sure it will happen by next year.
You're right mentally losing all the time will wear down some of the guys, that's why every year like Detroit you need to add 1 0r 2 guys and steadily get there it won't happen next year.
Reading your post I think you nailed exactly what Montreal needs up front, I came to the same conclusion when I looked at MTL's projected roster next year if they didn't make any moves. That said I don't necessarily agree with the execution, I think the Monahan and Stephenson contracts are risky, not necessarily because of the AAV but because of the term.
Anyways, this was my offseason plan:
- Need a #2RW or a #2C and move Dach to the wing.
- Need a #3C, send Dvorak to the AHL.
- Trade Ylonen.
- Sign a veteran 3rd string goalie.
- Don't rush the D prospects.
- Draft BPA.
So regarding the options at C the 2 I have circled is bringing back Monahan or buying low on Dubois. At RW two options I like are Toffoli and Marchessault. I feel like all 4 of those players are realistic options for MTL. I think I've moved on from Zegras, the cost to acquire would be too high, there is no reason to trade the top 10 pick this year.
Edit:
- I really like the idea of getting Stephenson but I just think he will have lots of options over MTL. I agree he's like a better Danault, but he is also older than Danault when he signed his $5.5M × 6 year deal. If I was going for Stephenson I'd offer something like $6M × 4 years using Danault as a comparison, I'd throw in a 5th year to try get the deal done but that's probably as far as I'd be willing to go, $6M × 5 years.
I think MTL problems are more than Top 6
I think bringing in Stephenson or Monahan back but, not both.
The defense not only needs to get older but someone needs to become a #1D and I'm not sure it will happen by next year.
You're right mentally losing all the time will wear down some of the guys, that's why every year like Detroit you need to add 1 0r 2 guys and steadily get there it won't happen next year.
Fair. I don't think going as "fast" as I am proposing is how most GMs approach it as well. I mostly did it for illustration purposes. I doubt Stephenson even considers Montreal FWIW.
In reading your post I think you nailed exactly what Montreal needs up front, I came to the same conclusion when I looked at MTL's projected roster next year if they didn't make any moves. That said I don't necessarily agree with the execution, I think the Monahan and Stephenson contracts are risky, not necessarily because of the AAV but because of the term.
Anyways, this was my offseason plan:
- Need a #2RW or a #2C and move Dach to the wing.
- Need a #3C, send Dvorak to the AHL.
- Trade Ylonen.
- Sign a veteran 3rd string goalie.
- Don't rush the D prospects.
- Draft BPA.
So regarding the options at C the 2 I have circled is bringing back Monahan or buying low on Dubois. At RW two options I like are Toffoli and Marchessault. I feel like all 4 of those players are realistic options for MTL. I think I've moved on from Zegras, the cost to acquire would be too high, there is no reason to trade the top 10 pick this year.
I think your criticism is incredibly fair. I signed two players I like, but I doubt either of them consider Montreal this offseason so it's moot.
Stephenson is an elite and I mean ELITE defensive forward. He's better than Danault IMO. I would want that player on my playoff team ALL day. I lined him up with 2 other players who I think are fantastic defensively, because I think as a trio they will destroy the opposition in Expected Goals For.
Monahan, we know what he is. I assume you are worried he will get injured. I am worried that this team will look as inept as they have the past few weeks without him.
Both Monahan & Stephenson would be top 3 in forward scoring on this team this year, and they can both hit 50-65 points per season which is what you would expect out of them.
As to cap space:
In 2025-26 when they need to sign Slaf & Guhle, they will have 24M in cap space with the cap set to go up to 92M and Dvorak, Savard & RHP coming off the books.
In 2026-27, over and above any cap growth and leftover cap room from 2025-26, they will have Matheson coming off the books and it will be the right time to buy out Anderson and/or Gallagher if they need cap room and choose to do so. That summer they will need to resign Dach, Hutson, and any D they want to keep from Xhekaj, Mailloux, Barron.
I don't think these signings hamper the Habs in the way you think they do. These are great players who will help this team grow and gain experience in the playoffs.
Thats exactly my point, A team that has Stephenson and Monahan top 3 in scoring (i dont think that would be the case) but if they are that reinforces how much this offense is still lacking, Stephenson is tremendous defensively, but isnt a top line player. And that second line is an average second line at best coupled that with the d-core still needing time to grow these moves dont push the needle enough. In theory both of those players would be awesome to have for playoff runs but i dont think they push us ahead enough to even make the playoffs without other pieces. I'm all for bringing in solid 2-way forwards but mtl is still needing a star offensive forward or they run the risk of repeating this year with the amount of 1-goal games we are in but cant win. The times of being able to score 2-3 goals, play solid team and rely on elite goaltending to win games is gone. That goalie duo is mid-tier at best.
I like the idea, but those contracts are a bit long imo. I think Montreal shouldn't sign anyone from FA for more than 3-4 years, we can always extend whoever we sign if they're worth keeping. That being said, I wouldn't be mad if we did sign one forward to a deal like that, but signing two of them could be an issue in a few years if/when our prospects are ready to play in the top 9 and we have these veterans that are taking up spots from them. I fear that we could end up signing someone and after a few seasons are in the same boat that Gallagher is now
Thats exactly my point, A team that has Stephenson and Monahan top 3 in scoring (i dont think that would be the case) but if they are that reinforces how much this offense is still lacking, Stephenson is tremendous defensively, but isnt a top line player. And that second line is an average second line at best coupled that with the d-core still needing time to grow these moves dont push the needle enough. In theory both of those players would be awesome to have for playoff runs but i dont think they push us ahead enough to even make the playoffs without other pieces. I'm all for bringing in solid 2-way forwards but mtl is still needing a star offensive forward or they run the risk of repeating this year with the amount of 1-goal games we are in but cant win. The times of being able to score 2-3 goals, play solid team and rely on elite goaltending to win games is gone. That goalie duo is mid-tier at best.
How many points do you think top 6 forwards need? You don't need 6 x 82 point players. 6 guys averaging 60 points between them is pretty good, especially if you have some depth and blueline scoring.
How many points do you think top 6 forwards need? You don't need 6 x 82 point players. 6 guys averaging 60 points between them is pretty good, especially if you have some depth and blueline scoring.
i'm not concerned as much about point totals specifically, What they need is someone able to drive and create offensive and lift their line mates. 6 guys averaging 60 points is bare minimum what you need. Ideal the top line is averaging 70-80 points and second line 60-70 points. we don't have the d or the goaltending to get by with an average offense.
i'm not concerned as much about point totals specifically, What they need is someone able to drive and create offensive and lift their line mates. 6 guys averaging 60 points is bare minimum what you need. Ideal the top line is averaging 70-80 points and second line 60-70 points. we don't have the d or the goaltending to get by with an average offense.
Actually we have the 2nd highest scoring d-core in the league.
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