Lot of debate for the past couple months regarding Monahan's trade value if MTL decides to trade him. Many think he's not worth more than a 2nd, some believe he's worth a 1st + a top prospect.
The first thing to get out of the way is if MTL will trade him to begin with. Although I believe it would be best to trade him, I think there's a high probability that Kent Hughes signs him to an extension. It will all depend on the asking price, but so far Hughes' strengths as a GM has been contract negotiations. MTL will be looking "to start" competing in a year or two, and veteran players like Monahan will be the type of player the Habs will still need to complement their younger core players.
Now if Monahan gets traded, the closest comparable I can find (in terms of player age, production, position, similar style of play, and cap hit) is the 2018 STL-WIN trade for Paul Stastny. Stastny was 31 at the time of the trade (Monahan is 29), Stastny had 53 pts that season (Monahan is currently on pace for 52pts), both play a 2-way game as Centers. Stastny cap hit after retention was $3.5mil aav (Monahan's cap will be $2mil aav or less depending on retention). Stastny was traded for a 1st rd pick and what essentially became a 4th rd pick.
Another comparable is the Andrew Copp trade between WIN-NYR in 2022. Copp was 27 at the time of the trade (Monahan is 29), and again production, style of play, and cap hit, etc. is similar. The value of the trade, at first, was Copp + 6th rd pick for Morgan Barron + 5th rd pick + two conditional 2nd rd picks (with one of the 2nds becoming a 1st due to NYR winning two playoff rounds).
I think there will be a lot of factors that will determine Monahan's value (primary thing is that he keeps up his current production and level of play, second will be the trade market for a center), and I believe if he's traded, his return will be much closer to Stastny's 2018 trade value rather than 2022 Copps trade value. And if a 1st rd pick isn't included, I have no doubt that it will be something like a 2nd rd pick (maybe with a condition to become a 1st depending on the prospect included) + a solid prospect.
Bruins should have zero interest in him, as stated numerous times in the past he doesn't meet any need of theirs. Boston needs a high-end center to slot everyone else further down the lines and Monahan right now would fall somewhere between Coyle and Poitras as the third center
I have the same type of explanation that what I said. Don't forget also that he will gonna be the 2nd best centerman available at the TDL (behind Lindholm, but he is better than Henrique). If he is available officially at the TDL, he will gonna cost a low-first round pick, no negotiation about a lower price.
And also, the same thing that what you said : Habs management loves Monahan and are very interrested to resign him once again, and Monahan loves to play with the Canadiens organisation. So, they don't care if they didn't receive what they asking for, they have no pressure because they will gonna want resign him if he is not traded. I belive if Monahan resign with us, the contract will be signed at the same day of the TDL.
Won’t be Boston. Not paying that for someone they don’t need and has been PP dependent for production while being lousy 5v5.
Quoting: ht42
I have the same type of explanation that what I said. Don't forget also that he will gonna be the 2nd best centerman available at the TDL (behind Lindholm, but he is better than Henrique). If he is available officially at the TDL, he will gonna cost a low-first round pick, no negotiation about a lower price.
And also, the same thing that what you said : Habs management loves Monahan and are very interrested to resign him once again, and Monahan loves to play with the Canadiens organisation. So, they don't care if they didn't receive what they asking for, they have no pressure because they will gonna want resign him if he is not traded. I belive if Monahan resign with us, the contract will be signed at the same day of the TDL.
I hear that Frideman said that Toronto and Boston are two teams that can be interrested for him. So, I belive that's why he put them as a TDL candidate.
Monhan’s lengthy injury history reduces his value; not worth a 1st + imo. If he can get through this season without significant injury - increases his value but I hope Leafs wouldn’t pay that for a 3C that wouldn’t get a sniff on on PP1
First, let me say, great description and forethought. Your comparisons (while they have their warts, see below) are well thought out.
The problem with the Stastny comparison is history. Paul was relatively healthy and a 40-60 point guy (averaging about 2.3 points per 60) in the previous 4 years. Monahan has been unhealthy and hasn't put up 40+ points in 4 years (averaging 1.5 points per 60 in his last full-ish season).
The Copp example is similar in that he also didn't have much history (1 full good season before the trade) but he was 25 and had a lot of speculation value. The Rangers thought maybe he had more and maybe they could resign him.
The other flaw is that Monahan is VERY PP dependent. He has 9 points in the PP and 8 at even strength. Both Copp and Stastny had better numbers 5v5.
So Monahan is likely worth less than both. He is older than Copp and has a less productive history than Stastny. He also has an injury history and was just dumped (with a 1st) last offseason. He also is weaker 5v5.
I am in the 2nd + B prospect camp, assuming a team needs PP help, Monahan stays healthy, and a team is willing to overpay.
Won’t be Boston. Not paying that for someone they don’t need and has been PP dependent for production while being lousy 5v5.
This is definitely the narrative of those claiming he's not worth much. and there's "some" level of truth to it, but it's clearly over exaggerated.
Monahan plays on the 1st PP untit for MTL and has 9 PP pts. Looking at his 5V5 stats, he's producing at a rate of a 3rd line Center, so claiming he's dependent on the PP for production is not entirely true. He has negative possession metrics at 5V5 but starts 60% of the time in the defensive zone (so he's used as the Habs primary defensive center) on one of the league's worst teams. So being "lousy" at 5V5 is clearly misleading.
Boston might not have Monahan as their top priority for a Center (most likely they are targeting Lindholm), but it wouldn't surprise me if they focus on Monahan if they miss out on Lindholm.
This is definitely the narrative of those claiming he's not worth much. and there's "some" level of truth to it, but it's clearly over exaggerated.
Monahan plays on the 1st PP untit for MTL and has 9 PP pts. Looking at his 5V5 stats, he's producing at a rate of a 3rd line Center, so claiming he's dependent on the PP for production is not entirely true. He has negative possession metrics at 5V5 but starts 60% of the time in the defensive zone (so he's used as the Habs primary defensive center) on one of the league's worst teams. So being "lousy" at 5V5 is clearly misleading.
Boston might not have Monahan as their top priority for a Center (most likely they are targeting Lindholm), but it wouldn't surprise me if they focus on Monahan if they miss out on Lindholm.
Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?
This is definitely the narrative of those claiming he's not worth much. and there's "some" level of truth to it, but it's clearly over exaggerated.
Monahan plays on the 1st PP untit for MTL and has 9 PP pts. Looking at his 5V5 stats, he's producing at a rate of a 3rd line Center, so claiming he's dependent on the PP for production is not entirely true. He has negative possession metrics at 5V5 but starts 60% of the time in the defensive zone (so he's used as the Habs primary defensive center) on one of the league's worst teams. So being "lousy" at 5V5 is clearly misleading.
Boston might not have Monahan as their top priority for a Center (most likely they are targeting Lindholm), but it wouldn't surprise me if they focus on Monahan if they miss out on Lindholm.
Problem with your theory. They want Elias long term. They don’t want or need a 3C rental. 🤷🏻♂️
Monhan’s lengthy injury history reduces his value; not worth a 1st + imo. If he can get through this season without significant injury - increases his value but I hope Leafs wouldn’t pay that for a 3C that wouldn’t get a sniff on on PP1
with regards to his injury history, I would agree that it would impact his value for teams looking to sign him to an extension. But as a deadline rental, at worst it would be conditions being added to draft picks depending on if he's stays healthy (playing 50% of games in the playoffs or something like that)
Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?
Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.
Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.
Problem with your theory. They want Elias long term. They don’t want or need a 3C rental. 🤷🏻♂️
What I meant is that if BOS don't get Lindholm, I would be surprised if they don't do anything at all. And other from Lindholm, Monahan, and maybe Henrique, there really isn't much available at center.
What I meant is that if BOS don't get Lindholm, I would be surprised if they don't do anything at all. And other from Lindholm, Monahan, and maybe Henrique, there really isn't much available at center.
I think they go after Hanifin and stick with what they have at center. Sweeney has wanted Noah since he was in HS and they need a top 4 LD and PP QB far more than they need a center.
Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?
Quoting: MTLaveragefan
Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.
Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.
This too lol, Monahan was on a 70 pts pace, and as soon as he got glued to Anderson, like everybody else getting to play with him, production took a major hit. I don't think it can be overstated how horrible Anderson has been, not just for himself, but on how he's been impacting his teammates on the ice too...
and I believe whoever will be acquiring Monahan (again, if he's available) will most likely use him on their 2nd PP unit, and use him as a solid face off centermen (he's one of the Habs best with 57% on face offs).
Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.
Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.
Most players would put up points with 4 minutes a game on PP1 where your job is to stand in front of the net and hope for a tip or a breakdown around you. Monahan isn’t creating anything on the PP, he just exists on it.
I think it's an overpay for him, but I like your reasoning and some team probably pays it.
The last 4 years have been a struggle for him. I know he's been injured but when he's played he hasn't been top 6 on a good team anyways
Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?
I would disagree with that. He is quite good on the PP.
Most players would put up points with 4 minutes a game on PP1 where your job is to stand in front of the net and hope for a tip or a breakdown around you. Monahan isn’t creating anything on the PP, he just exists on it.
See that is why a team like the Pens would trade for him. They sorely miss that guy who stands in front of the net and creates havoc.
Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.
Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.
“You also look at how Pearson and Gallagher have played with and without Monahan, they have played far better without him than with him. Pearson sees a tremendous surge in expected results (39.90 xGF% ---> 57.33 xGF%), while also having less favorable deployment (18.10 O-Zone FO / 60 ---> 10.79 O-Zone FO /60). Same deal with Gallagher, (49.45 xGF% ---> 59.79 xGF%) with slightly less favorable deployment. The TOI with and without Monahan is close as well, so it's a pretty even sample size.”
I wrote this back on 12/10 in a different thread so the numbers might be dated slightly, but those “anchors” play better without Monahan in a nearly 50/50 sample size split.
My larger point is that anyone paying a 1st for Monahan would be banking that he can somehow now produce at 5v5 given more favorable deployment/linemates and would have to utilize him on the PP1. Those same linemates of his play better away from him. I’m not sure how many teams have that need for him given that criteria. He’s a fine player, but a 1st for him just cannot see teams going to that price barring multiple injuries
This too lol, Monahan was on a 70 pts pace, and as soon as he got glued to Anderson, like everybody else getting to play with him, production took a major hit. I don't think it can be overstated how horrible Anderson has been, not just for himself, but on how he's been impacting his teammates on the ice too...
and I believe whoever will be acquiring Monahan (again, if he's available) will most likely use him on their 2nd PP unit, and use him as a solid face off centermen (he's one of the Habs best with 57% on face offs).
I agree with your future assessment of where Monahan fits into a new lineup, but disagree that the price tag for that does not cover the benefit he provides as a 2PP man and winning face offs.
Yes Anderson weighed him down, but he still wasn’t spectacular without him either.
Even then, how many teams that are contenders are struggling on the PowerPlay enough to move a 1st rounder for him?
Well, there are teams in a playoff spot operating with sub 20% PPs (WIN, PHI, WSH, FLA). I agree some of those teams probably don't move a 1st for Monahan, but I did say in the description that a 2nd rd pick (maybe with a condition of becoming a 1st depending on the prospect included) + a solid prospect is definitely viable. Come to think of it, Cheveldayoff in WIN has a history of going after Centers at the deadline. Could be an option.
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