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John Gibson

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2023-24 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 3 déc. 2023
Publié: 3 déc. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Two things to state first....

1. I do not think NJD add a goalie mid-season unless we have an injury. There is nothing to suggest we are actively looking...and our GM has said he doesn't like changing goalies mid-year. So if we make a move, it will probably come in off-season.

2. I do not share the same view of the goalie market in general as many on ACGM. I think there are far fewer buyers, far fewer sellers than we think. In short, the goalie market is comprised of unwanted goalies. So we are not going to just add Swayman or Oettinger or Saros or whomever.


So why Gibson?

1. He may be the best guy available (if available)
2. He is a 55-start workhorse
3. He carries 'bad-team-baggage'...(he is better than many think)
4. His cap hit is manageable...especially when the norm for next wave will be $8m+
5. He has term...3.5 years left
6. He is consistent over long term
7. He is a guy I think Devils would develop confidence playing in front of day-in-and-day-out


Comps used in price

-- Frederik Andersen 2016: Andersen had been in tandem with Gibson in Anaheim (they won 2015-16 Jennings Trophy). He was traded as he hit RFA, but came with $5m x 5 year extension. He was a few years younger than Gibson is today. Ducks got a late 1st and a mid 2nd just before draft (so pick values were known). The combined value of the #30 pick and #50 pick is roughly the same as the #17 overall pick (according to pick value charts)...pretty close to where NJD pick is today.

-- Tomas Vokoun 2007: Vokoun was closer in age to Gibson and was similar workhouse with 4 years remaining on deal (at $5.7m). He had been top-10 for Vezina in each of the the prior three years...and was probably the best goalie to be made available in years. Nashville had Chris Mason on their roster (who flamed out the next year and was dealt in 2008) and young stud Pekka Rinne in AHL. At the 2007 draft, Nashville traded him to Florida for a 1st round pick and two 2nds. Florida was overpaying a bit since they trying to make up for Luongo trade the prior summer (and were left with 41-year old Ed Belfour).



-----
On lineup...
-- I didn't set lines
-- Dougie is in lineup to show cap if case he returns this season
Transactions
1.
NJD
  1. Gibson, John (1 280 000 $ retained)
Détails additionnels:
20% retention

Devils 2024 1st flips to 2025 1st if it is top-5 (or #29-32 and conflicts with Meier trade condition)
ANA
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (NJD)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (NJD)
  3. Choix de 4e ronde en 2025 (NJD)
2.
NJD
    Future Considerations

    (any team)
    Rachats de contrats
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    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2283 500 000 $81 206 667 $422 500 $2 232 500 $2 293 333 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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    2 125 000 $2 125 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
    C
    UFA - 7
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
    AD, C
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    8 800 000 $8 800 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    7 250 000 $7 250 000 $
    C
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
    AD, AG
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
    C
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
    AD, C
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
    AG, AD
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
    C, AG
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 350 000 $1 350 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 2
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 5
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    9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
    DD
    NMC
    UFA - 5
    Logo de Ducks d'Anaheim
    5 120 000 $5 120 000 $
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance925 000 $$925K)
    DG/DD
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    4 400 000 $4 400 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    850 833 $850 833 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
    G
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 050 000 $1 050 000 $
    DG
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 850 000 $1 850 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 1
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    775 000 $775 000 $
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
    AG, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
    DG/DD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Équipe de réserve
    Logo de Devils du New Jersey
    918 333 $918 333 $ (0 $$00 $$0) (Bonis de performance3 250 000 $$3M)
    DD
    RFA - 3

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    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 38
    #1
    FKA Bigtittielarper
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    Not sure Gibson is the right move
    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 45
    #2
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    Quoting: SomeonesOffended
    Not sure Gibson is the right move


    Why not?
    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 47
    #3
    FKA Bigtittielarper
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    Why not?


    Cause he’s been just mediocre for a couple years there’s a lot of better options out there even Reimer for a 3rd would be better
    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 57
    #4
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    Quoting: SomeonesOffended
    Cause he’s been just mediocre for a couple years there’s a lot of better options out there even Reimer for a 3rd would be better


    Hmm...I get what you are saying. But Reimer for 3rd is the type of trade you make when your back goes down. Gibson is the type of trade you make when you are resetting the position.

    I think Gibson is better than mediocre...still borderline top-10.
    And is 55-60 start workhorse...which when done well can give a young team consistency, confidence in net...which we haven't had since early Schneider.
    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 57
    #5
    Future Ducks legend
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    Modifié 3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 36
    I don't see Gibson being made available, nor do I think Verbeek and ownership are willing to eat a significant chunk of salary for 3.5 years.

    I do appreciate the effort you went to for your explanation and comps. Well thought out and reasoned.
    Smitty426 a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 15 h 58
    #6
    FKA Bigtittielarper
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    Hmm...I get what you are saying. But Reimer for 3rd is the type of trade you make when your back goes down. Gibson is the type of trade you make when you are resetting the position.

    I think Gibson is better than mediocre...still borderline top-10.
    And is 55-60 start workhorse...which when done well can give a young team consistency, confidence in net...which we haven't had since early Schneider.


    Top 20 would be generous
    SociallyHawkward a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 0
    #7
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    Jersey trying to solve their goalie problem by getting someone who has been so horribly bad for so long would be very very very funny
    SomeonesOffended et TyeZerker a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 1
    #8
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    Hmm...I get what you are saying. But Reimer for 3rd is the type of trade you make when your back goes down. Gibson is the type of trade you make when you are resetting the position.

    I think Gibson is better than mediocre...still borderline top-10.
    And is 55-60 start workhorse...which when done well can give a young team consistency, confidence in net...which we haven't had since early Schneider.


    Gibson has been a bottom 5 starter by almost every metric for longer than most goalies have careers. And you cant blame the ducks being bad for that
    SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 2
    #9
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    Quoting: JaredOfLondon
    Gibson has been a bottom 5 starter by almost every metric for longer than most goalies have careers. And you cant blame the ducks being bad for that


    Which metrics?
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 6
    #10
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    Which metrics?


    pick one, sv%, HDSV%, Goals saved above expected, WAR, etc etc etc. He's been one of the major reasons the ducks have been so bad, not a victim of it
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 27
    #11
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    Quoting: JaredOfLondon
    pick one, sv%, HDSV%, Goals saved above expected, WAR, etc etc etc. He's been one of the major reasons the ducks have been so bad, not a victim of it


    over last two years

    HD Sv%
    Kevin Lankinen: 0.854
    Connor Hellebuyck 0.838
    John Gibson: 0.837
    Dan Vladar: 0.835
    Carter Hart: 0.831
    Stuart Skinner: 0.828
    Sam Montembeault: 0.827
    Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.824
    David Rittich 0.821
    Jacob Markstrom: 0.816
    Petr Mrazek: 0.813
    Eric Comrie: 0.808
    Magnus Hellberg: 0.807
    James Reimer: 0.801
    Kaapo Kahkonen: 0.801
    Jake Allen: 0.795
    Akira Schmid: 0.794
    Vitek Vanecek: 0.789
    Cal Petersen: 0.789
    Jack Campbell: 0.768

    WAR
    Connor Hellebuyck: 8.3
    Stuart Skinner: 3.2
    Sam Montembeault: 3.1
    Carter Hart: 3.1
    Vitek Vanecek: 2.7
    Kevin Lankinen: 1.6
    Jacob Markstrom: 1.1
    John Gibson: 0.9
    Akira Schmid: 0.9
    Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.8
    David Rittich: 0.6
    Petr Mrazek: 0.3
    Dan Vladar: -0.2
    Jake Allen: -0.3
    James Reimer: -0.3
    Magnus Hellberg: -0.5
    Cal Petersen: -1.3
    Eric Comrie: -1.7
    Kaapo Kahkonen: -2.2
    Jack Campbell: -3.4


    ???
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 37
    #12
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    Quoting: GiggywithGibby
    I don't see Gibson being made available, nor do I think Verbeek and ownership are willing to eat a significant chunk of salary for 3.5 years.

    I do appreciate the effort you went to for your explanation and comps.


    This
    3 déc. 2023 à 16 h 38
    #13
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    over last two years

    HD Sv%
    Kevin Lankinen: 0.854
    Connor Hellebuyck 0.838
    John Gibson: 0.837
    Dan Vladar: 0.835
    Carter Hart: 0.831
    Stuart Skinner: 0.828
    Sam Montembeault: 0.827
    Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.824
    David Rittich 0.821
    Jacob Markstrom: 0.816
    Petr Mrazek: 0.813
    Eric Comrie: 0.808
    Magnus Hellberg: 0.807
    James Reimer: 0.801
    Kaapo Kahkonen: 0.801
    Jake Allen: 0.795
    Akira Schmid: 0.794
    Vitek Vanecek: 0.789
    Cal Petersen: 0.789
    Jack Campbell: 0.768

    WAR
    Connor Hellebuyck: 8.3
    Stuart Skinner: 3.2
    Sam Montembeault: 3.1
    Carter Hart: 3.1
    Vitek Vanecek: 2.7
    Kevin Lankinen: 1.6
    Jacob Markstrom: 1.1
    John Gibson: 0.9
    Akira Schmid: 0.9
    Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.8
    David Rittich: 0.6
    Petr Mrazek: 0.3
    Dan Vladar: -0.2
    Jake Allen: -0.3
    James Reimer: -0.3
    Magnus Hellberg: -0.5
    Cal Petersen: -1.3
    Eric Comrie: -1.7
    Kaapo Kahkonen: -2.2
    Jack Campbell: -3.4


    ???


    try over the last 5. He had a hot start this year and is falling to his regular spot rapidly
    his WAR over the seasons
    23/24: 0.54 (already pretty much halved from like 5 games ago)
    22/23: -1.92
    21/22: -0.26
    20/21: -1.23
    19/20: -3.0
    3 déc. 2023 à 17 h 23
    #14
    Shaners79
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    I remember saying Gibson would have been the move I'd make when the Hellebuyck rumors were running rampant. We could have grabbed him in the off season.
    NHLfan10506 a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 18 h 11
    #15
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    Quoting: JaredOfLondon
    try over the last 5. He had a hot start this year and is falling to his regular spot rapidly
    his WAR over the seasons
    23/24: 0.54 (already pretty much halved from like 5 games ago)
    22/23: -1.92
    21/22: -0.26
    20/21: -1.23
    19/20: -3.0


    Gibson WAR per Evolving Hockey
    2023-24: 0.7
    2022-23: 0.2
    2021-22: 1.6
    2020-21: 1.8
    2019-20: 1.2

    Also...its a number that tells us little unless you are comparing it to someone else...even if that is the current option

    Vanecek
    2023-24: -0.9
    2022-23: 3.6

    Blackwood
    2022-23: 0.4
    2021-22: -0.9
    2020-21: 0.3
    2019-20: 2.6

    Also, its worth noting that Gibson has faced the 2nd most shots and most high danger shots (and 3rd highest % of shots being HD).


    So for comparison, compare two guys...

    Player X: 0.926 Sv%
    Player Y: 0.907 Sv%

    Player X: 27 shots per 60.... 7 high-danger, 7 medium, 4 off rebound
    Player Y: 35 shots-per-60...11 high-danger, 9 medium, 5 off rebound

    That is 8 more shots, 4 more high-danger shots a night for Player Y...

    If you flipped them, and they still saved a similar % of various shots, their save% would be

    Player X: 0.916 Sv%
    Player Y: 0.914 Sv%


    (Its Swayman and Gibson)
    zackhendo a aimé ceci.
    3 déc. 2023 à 18 h 32
    #16
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    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    Gibson WAR per Evolving Hockey
    2023-24: 0.7
    2022-23: 0.2
    2021-22: 1.6
    2020-21: 1.8
    2019-20: 1.2

    Also...its a number that tells us little unless you are comparing it to someone else...even if that is the current option

    Vanecek
    2023-24: -0.9
    2022-23: 3.6

    Blackwood
    2022-23: 0.4
    2021-22: -0.9
    2020-21: 0.3
    2019-20: 2.6

    Also, its worth noting that Gibson has faced the 2nd most shots and most high danger shots (and 3rd highest % of shots being HD).


    So for comparison, compare two guys...

    Player X: 0.926 Sv%
    Player Y: 0.907 Sv%

    Player X: 27 shots per 60.... 7 high-danger, 7 medium, 4 off rebound
    Player Y: 35 shots-per-60...11 high-danger, 9 medium, 5 off rebound

    That is 8 more shots, 4 more high-danger shots a night for Player Y...

    If you flipped them, and they still saved a similar % of various shots, their save% would be

    Player X: 0.916 Sv%
    Player Y: 0.914 Sv%


    (Its Swayman and Gibson)


    they have incredibly different numbers than both moneypuck, and they track with a few others, including the venerable jfresh cards
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0M63vVXoAAV_yn.jpg:large
    as far as comparing him to Blackwood and Vanecek....those guys are basically career backups with incredibly small runs of good.

    For the Swayman/Gibson comparison I have no idea where you got those swayman numbers because ive checked a few places and he's never had a 926 sv%
    3 déc. 2023 à 20 h 4
    #17
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    NO thanks. Too much money for a goalie who is meh. You dont need a goalie that is expensive again look at Hill. Lyon,Riemer,Stolarz all "backup" just like Hill was but oh no look what happened HILL became the starter. Give me Thompson over Gibson, Thomps having better stats and swayman never had 926% his career average rn is 921%
    3 déc. 2023 à 21 h 9
    #18
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    Quoting: TyeZerker
    NO thanks. Too much money for a goalie who is meh. You dont need a goalie that is expensive again look at Hill. Lyon,Riemer,Stolarz all "backup" just like Hill was but oh no look what happened HILL became the starter. Give me Thompson over Gibson, Thomps having better stats and swayman never had 926% his career average rn is 921%


    Vegas is parting with Thompson?
    4 déc. 2023 à 3 h 31
    #19
    VanFan12
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    I like this trade. I think value makes so much sense for both teams. Might as well give Vaneck in the trade though - Ducks likely need a goalie and I'm not sure you're giving him away for 'future considerations' otherwise - you're going to be paying to get rid of him.
     
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