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2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #2: Early Overreactions

22 nov. 2023 à 8 h 8
#26
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It’s maybe just me, but this year it seems like most teams, more than usual, are divided into three categories: absolute wagon, coin flip to W or L, or completely awful.

Maybe this is because most teams are performing as expected. Usually there is a bit more volatility to start seasons I feel. Perhaps somebody bad has a 5-0 start, or there’s 3 edmontons instead of 1, etc.
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22 nov. 2023 à 10 h 34
#27
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Quoting: CantStopWontStop
It’s maybe just me, but this year it seems like most teams, more than usual, are divided into three categories: absolute wagon, coin flip to W or L, or completely awful.

Maybe this is because most teams are performing as expected. Usually there is a bit more volatility to start seasons I feel. Perhaps somebody bad has a 5-0 start, or there’s 3 edmontons instead of 1, etc.


I think it's just the parity in the league that we all expect...

We all aren't really surprised anymore if an Arizona squeaks into the WC and a team like EDM falls way out bc that's how close it is and any team with a weakness that's very noticeable, has a chance of EDM happening to them...
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 39
#28
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Got some strange feeling Jarmo Kekäläinen wont be CBJ GM much longer

As I dont think Ownership very happy with him now

He goes off and adds Severson, Provorov last offseason

Signs Gaudreau in FA the season before

And they are somehow doing worse

Than you got Pascal Vincent thinking he hot **** when hes only been a HC for 19 games "its getting tiresome" what is you coaching 19 games lul

You lost the room in 19 games wow

That team needs new management and coach as its just a toxic wasteland as soon Gaudreau and Laine gonna demand trades
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22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 39
#29
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Quoting: aadoyle
You could trade RNH and get a pretty nice blue liner back to help with the defense without sacrificing to much on offense.


I'd actually argue moving Draisaitl would be a smarter move for a new GM.

I'm aware he lights it up more often than not when it comes to the playoffs but his value is substantially higher than RNH's.

For Draisaitl, with little to no retention(I'm talking less than 1M, if that) I'm certain the Oilers could receive:
-a blue chip prospect, though they would have to choose between a forward prospect and a defense one
-a first round pick in 2024 or 2025
-a top 4 defender that can play 20-21 minutes a night and defend really well
-a second line winger than can score 20 goals
-a good goalie


RNH would only get you 2-3 of these pieces. Draisaitl would get these 5 important pieces, while also getting rid of the coming 11-12-13-14M dollars per season contract that's coming for him.
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 43
#30
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Modifié 22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 48
Quoting: WJC_Enthusiast
I'd actually argue moving Draisaitl would be a smarter move for a new GM.

I'm aware he lights it up more often than not when it comes to the playoffs but his value is substantially higher than RNH's.

For Draisaitl, with little to no retention(I'm talking less than 1M, if that) I'm certain the Oilers could receive:
-a blue chip prospect, though they would have to choose between a forward prospect and a defense one
-a first round pick in 2024 or 2025
-a top 4 defender that can play 20-21 minutes a night and defend really well
-a second line winger than can score 20 goals
-a good goalie


RNH would only get you 2-3 of these pieces. Draisaitl would get these 5 important pieces, while also getting rid of the coming 11-12-13-14M dollars per season contract that's coming for him.


I dont see a scenario where Edmonton wins a Draisaitl trade. Its like Willy and Marner. PKG may look nice when you look at what they bring vs. what they got its clear who you would rather have.

For what he brings to them I dont see the PKG coming back surpassing that.

To me they may get some giant fancy package but it could end up just being the Huberdeau + Weegar for Tkachuck situation where the new guys struggle and he takes him game to the next level.

Sure some will say what about ROR trade that got Buffalo Thompson and stuff. Buffalo got very lucky he started to figure it out as man he was so close to getting traded for nothing to Colorado.


Cause really EDM problem rn is defense. A nice blue liner or two for RNH is really all they need

They can then use the remaining assets to go get a goalie and dump Campbell is need be
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 45
#31
Respect Mike Grier
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Quoting: WJC_Enthusiast
I'd actually argue moving Draisaitl would be a smarter move for a new GM.

I'm aware he lights it up more often than not when it comes to the playoffs but his value is substantially higher than RNH's.

For Draisaitl, with little to no retention(I'm talking less than 1M, if that) I'm certain the Oilers could receive:
-a blue chip prospect, though they would have to choose between a forward prospect and a defense one
-a first round pick in 2024 or 2025
-a top 4 defender that can play 20-21 minutes a night and defend really well
-a second line winger than can score 20 goals
-a good goalie


RNH would only get you 2-3 of these pieces. Draisaitl would get these 5 important pieces, while also getting rid of the coming 11-12-13-14M dollars per season contract that's coming for him.


Agreed. Admittingly, I'm not a Draisaitl guy, but no denying he is very good. But yea, their roster construction is so flawed. Trading Draisaitl would help a lot in fixing that.
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 49
#32
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Quoting: aadoyle
I dont see a scenario where Edmonton wins a Draisaitl trade. Its like Willy and Marner. PKG may look nice when you look at what they bring vs. what they got its clear who you would rather have.

For what he brings to them I dont see the PKG coming back surpassing that.

To me they may get some giant fancy package but it could end up just being the Huberdeau + Weegar for Tkachuck situation where the new guys struggle and he takes him game to the next level.

Sure some will say what about ROR trade that got Buffalo Thompson and stuff. Buffalo got very lucky he started to figure it out as man he was so close to getting traded for nothing to Colorado.


I get that but I don't believe it's the same... in other words, I don't believe the Huberdeau + Weegar + 1st for Tkachuk trade is a good template.

Huberdeau and Weegar were coming off a great season in 21-22 and Huberdeau (at least the 21-22 version of him) was substantially more than just a 20 goal scorer. Weegar was also more than a regular top 4 defender, he was Florida's number 1 for a big part of the season, when Ekblad was injured. I don't think the template for a Draisaitl trade exist.
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 51
#33
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Quoting: WJC_Enthusiast
I get that but I don't believe it's the same... in other words, I don't believe the Huberdeau + Weegar + 1st for Tkachuk trade is a good template.

Huberdeau and Weegar were coming off a great season in 21-22 and Huberdeau (at least the 21-22 version of him) was substantially more than just a 20 goal scorer. Weegar was also more than a regular top 4 defender, he was Florida's number 1 for a big part of the season, when Ekblad was injured. I don't think the template for a Draisaitl trade exist.


In general as mentioned moving Draisaitl makes 0 sense for EDM as any pkg coming back will not equate to what he is already bringing to EDM. Unless your getting Cale Makar, Miro Heiskenen, or Fox not worth

As for RNH you can move him and get back a nice Defenseman or two without sacrificing on the scoring front as even when hes gone they got Hyman and Kane.

Thats the guy more likely to be moved
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 53
#34
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Quoting: ARMCHAIRGMOFTHEYEAR
Agreed. Admittingly, I'm not a Draisaitl guy, but no denying he is very good. But yea, their roster construction is so flawed. Trading Draisaitl would help a lot in fixing that.


It's not the only issue plaguing them.

Others are:
-Nurse being drastically overpaid. And I get why he was. He was great in 21-22 and by that season, it was clear Klefbom was never coming back so Nurse's camp likely told the Oilers "hey, our guy is your team's number one for basically the next decade, you better pay him big bucks", and they did. He's overpaid by 2,5-3M.
-Kulak is overpaid for what he brings. I believe he's the perfect number 6 on a good defensive unit and almost 3M for a number 6 is way too much. A number six should be at 1,75M max.
-Ceci has consistency issues. At best he's a number 4, which is appropriate for a defender who has an AAV of around 3,2M per but at worst he's a number 5, and over 3M can be an overpayment for a number 5.
-of course the Campbell deal is bad. And I mean, BAD.
-Ryan McLeod brings little to nothing to this team, and with an AAV of 2,1M, that's a lot for an 11th or 12th forward.

If we add all those dollars, it gives us savings of basically 10-12 million bucks per season. That's 3-4 roster players right there. A good goalie, another defensman and one more depth forward.
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 56
#35
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Quoting: aadoyle
I dont see a scenario where Edmonton wins a Draisaitl trade. Its like Willy and Marner. PKG may look nice when you look at what they bring vs. what they got its clear who you would rather have.

For what he brings to them I dont see the PKG coming back surpassing that.

To me they may get some giant fancy package but it could end up just being the Huberdeau + Weegar for Tkachuck situation where the new guys struggle and he takes him game to the next level.

Sure some will say what about ROR trade that got Buffalo Thompson and stuff. Buffalo got very lucky he started to figure it out as man he was so close to getting traded for nothing to Colorado.


Cause really EDM problem rn is defense. A nice blue liner or two for RNH is really all they need

They can then use the remaining assets to go get a goalie and dump Campbell is need be


I would also disagree that one defensman or two is all they need.

Hyman and Kane's deals will backfire within the next 2 seasons, I'd argue. They don't have much in terms of forward depth. You won't win a cup with the likes of McLeod, Brown, Janmark and Foegle playing important roles in the middle six. It just won't happen. They'd have to get rid of 2-3 of these guys and replace them with better players and they don't have any money for that
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 57
#36
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Quoting: aadoyle
Got some strange feeling Jarmo Kekäläinen wont be CBJ GM much longer

As I dont think Ownership very happy with him now

He goes off and adds Severson, Provorov last offseason

Signs Gaudreau in FA the season before

And they are somehow doing worse

Than you got Pascal Vincent thinking he hot **** when hes only been a HC for 19 games "its getting tiresome" what is you coaching 19 games lul

You lost the room in 19 games wow

That team needs new management and coach as its just a toxic wasteland as soon Gaudreau and Laine gonna demand trades


I warned that AHL success didn’t always translate to the big leagues, Vincent seems to be another to the pile
22 nov. 2023 à 14 h 59
#37
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Quoting: IconicHawk
I warned that AHL success didn’t always translate to the big leagues, Vincent seems to be another to the pile


Honestly CBJ's moves these past 2 years along with the records should have Ownership fuming

They waste money on some big FA (miss the playoffs)

Trade for Provorov and Severson (Doing worse than last year)

Honestly a management reset top to bottom could be in order
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 0
#38
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Quoting: aadoyle
Honestly CBJ's moves these past 2 years along with the records should have Ownership fuming

They waste money on some big FA (miss the playoffs)

Trade for Provorov and Severson (Doing worse than last year)

Honestly a management reset top to bottom could be in order


Now they’re just the midwest version of the Buffalo Sabres
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 3
#39
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Quoting: aadoyle
Honestly CBJ's moves these past 2 years along with the records should have Ownership fuming

They waste money on some big FA (miss the playoffs)

Trade for Provorov and Severson (Doing worse than last year)

Honestly a management reset top to bottom could be in order


They should've hired Patrick Roy instead of Babcock

Roy did a tremendous job coaching a young junior team, the Quebec Remparts, and that team won the memorial cup just a few months ago. One of the players he coached is a prospect in Columbus' pipeline, his name is James Malatesta.
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 4
#40
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Quoting: WJC_Enthusiast
I would also disagree that one defensman or two is all they need.

Hyman and Kane's deals will backfire within the next 2 seasons, I'd argue. They don't have much in terms of forward depth. You won't win a cup with the likes of McLeod, Brown, Janmark and Foegle playing important roles in the middle six. It just won't happen. They'd have to get rid of 2-3 of these guys and replace them with better players and they don't have any money for that


If you watch them they have 2 holes

Defense and Goaltending. If you fix the defense it may give the goalies enough slack to get their game back

We have seen it before where a goalie struggling gets placed on a team with a better Dcore than his previous and thrives.

If we look at EDM Dcore there are 2 glaring issues

1. Ceci is not a top pair Dman
2 They are lacking solid depth back there

Moving RNH and getting someone to play with Nurse and push Ceci to the third pair is a start. Then they just need to tidy things up but getting a minute eating steady top 4 guy who can play with Nurse is a good starting point to potential good change

As for Forward depth

Even with RNH gone

Hyman and Kane (lead the Oilers in goals), They have Foegele who can play everywhere, some young call up candidates, and Ryan and Gagner (nice 4th liners)

And once the others come back healthy or Brown finds his game those guys also will fill the bottom 6 nicely.
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 8
#41
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Modifié 22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 13
Quoting: IconicHawk
Now they’re just the midwest version of the Buffalo Sabres


Except to be fair for them it was ownership not really the management group ****ing em lul

This is more so to me Jarmo Kekäläinen ****ing it up

As notice when Buffalo ownership left things more so to the Sabers management how things started improving. For CBJ I think Ownership needs to step in

Cause soon Laine and Gaudreau gonna demand out along with some other big names
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 25
#42
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Quoting: aadoyle
As for RNH you can move him and get back a nice Defenseman or two without sacrificing on the scoring front as even when hes gone they got Hyman and Kane.


Who's this defenceman that you're speaking of though?

And which team is taking on Nugent-Hopkins until he's 38?
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22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 34
#43
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Modifié 22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 40
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Who's this defenceman that you're speaking of though?

And which team is taking on Nugent-Hopkins until he's 38?


The Dman I dont know yet as its not yet clear whose in and out

But for what team would want RNH at 5.125m for 6 more years there are a few I have in mind

SEA, NSH, MIN, NYI

Honestly NYI could be very interesting as they have some nice Dman and dont seem to care for age anymore. SEA I could see as he would be a nice replacement for some of their guys who are expiring.

As RNH deal is good till the final 2-3 years.
22 nov. 2023 à 15 h 47
#44
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Quoting: aadoyle
The Dman I dont know yet as its not yet clear whose in and out

But for what team would want RNH at 5.125m for 6 more years there are a few I have in mind

SEA, NSH, MIN, NYI

Honestly NYI could be very interesting as they have some nice Dman


From the teams you listed, it's only Spurgeon and Pulock that really interest me: Nurse and Ekholm have to make up the left side of Edmonton's top four. This is non-negotiable, no matter how we as the masses feel about their efficacy in those roles. Assume that Edmonton sends RNH, Broberg, and their 2025 first round pick for either of these men. For the sake of the exercise, we'll ignore the salary cap involved as I really only want to focus on the assets in/out for the time being. The Oilers are still missing:

1. Viable goaltending
2. Depth scoring.
3. A functioning PK.

Adding a Pulock/Spurgeon would be phenomenal for the 5v5 numbers, but removing RNH will hurt the power play, even if it's been sputtering lately. They also have Campbell's anchor of a deal to move or buy out, with a minimum of two fewer assets to do so. Moving RNH is merely cutting their nose to spite their face here. There's a substantial amount of bloat on the Oilers' roster and they have no value contracts to add to the mix that could ease their short-term burden.

Edmonton needs a very clever GM to make a series of really good small moves to get this team pointed back in the right direction, and I don't know where to start personally. Maybe Marchment and Suter for Foegele and Kulak such that Dallas can afford Kane? Suter's buyout is stomachable next season despite how much dead cap Edmonton will already be contending with next year, especially if the Stars can be talked into using a third party to retain half on the old anchor.
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22 nov. 2023 à 16 h 3
#45
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I really do think Edmonton can one-stop shop with Montreal; the only major problem is the Habs only have 1 retention spot left and limited LTIR space to take back any salary.

But, without getting into what it would cost Edmonton, here is what I think they should target:

Sean Monahan (1 x $1,985,000)
David Savard (2 x $3,500,000) as top 4 RHD (pair with Nurse) when he is healthy (approximately 2-4 weeks away)
Jake Allen (2 x $3,850,000) as a tandem goalie with Skinner.
Arber Xhekaj (1 x $828,333 ELC->RFA)
Total incoming cap: $9,335,000

Kulak would have to go back: $2,750,000
and Foegele to make the money work: $2,750,000
Along with Campbell's contract: $3,850,000 buried cap hit
Outgoing cap: $9,350,000

This would cost a good amount of future assets (picks and prospects); but what are the consequences of not going all in to make this years playoffs?

Hyman-McDavid-Draisatl
McLeod-RNH-Kane
Holloway-Monahan-Gagner
Janmark-Ryan-Brown
Hamblin?

Nurse-Savard
Ekholm-Bouchard
Xhekaj-Ceci
Desharnais as 7th D

Maybe then they could work adding a bottom 6 winger (or two) that is under $1 million and plays a two-way physical game.
22 nov. 2023 à 16 h 4
#46
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Quoting: aadoyle
The Dman I dont know yet as its not yet clear whose in and out

But for what team would want RNH at 5.125m for 6 more years there are a few I have in mind

SEA, NSH, MIN, NYI

Honestly NYI could be very interesting as they have some nice Dman and dont seem to care for age anymore. SEA I could see as he would be a nice replacement for some of their guys who are expiring.

As RNH deal is good till the final 2-3 years.


Washington would love RNH
22 nov. 2023 à 16 h 13
#47
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
I really do think Edmonton can one-stop shop with Montreal; the only major problem is the Habs only have 1 retention spot left and limited LTIR space to take back any salary.

But, without getting into what it would cost Edmonton, here is what I think they should target:

Sean Monahan (1 x $1,985,000)
David Savard (2 x $3,500,000) as top 4 RHD (pair with Nurse) when he is healthy (approximately 2-4 weeks away)
Jake Allen (2 x $3,850,000) as a tandem goalie with Skinner.
Arber Xhekaj (1 x $828,333 ELC->RFA)
Total incoming cap: $9,335,000

Kulak would have to go back: $2,750,000
and Foegele to make the money work: $2,750,000
Along with Campbell's contract: $3,850,000 buried cap hit
Outgoing cap: $9,350,000

This would cost a good amount of future assets (picks and prospects); but what are the consequences of not going all in to make this years playoffs?

Hyman-McDavid-Draisatl
McLeod-RNH-Kane
Holloway-Monahan-Gagner
Janmark-Ryan-Brown
Hamblin?

Nurse-Savard
Ekholm-Bouchard
Xhekaj-Ceci
Desharnais as 7th D

Maybe then they could work adding a bottom 6 winger (or two) that is under $1 million and plays a two-way physical game.


I suspect Montreal, or at least their fans, will be asking for Broberg, Bourgault, and Edmonton's next two firsts. Possibly more.

That is a hell of a lot of capital to move for what's going to equate to marginal upgrades at the positions Edmonton is hurting at. I don't really like it at all, even if it gets Edmonton out from the Campbell and Kulak contracts in one fell swoop. I would rather a far more creative solution that sees Edmonton get more for its picks and prospects.
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22 nov. 2023 à 16 h 31
#48
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Washington would love RNH


I guess something around Jensen + but hes 33.

Honestly the Avs Spark me as another considering they got 5 good Dman and something around Girard could be interesting. Especially if say Landeskog's Knee is bad enough to where he may be done
22 nov. 2023 à 16 h 33
#49
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
From the teams you listed, it's only Spurgeon and Pulock that really interest me: Nurse and Ekholm have to make up the left side of Edmonton's top four. This is non-negotiable, no matter how we as the masses feel about their efficacy in those roles. Assume that Edmonton sends RNH, Broberg, and their 2025 first round pick for either of these men. For the sake of the exercise, we'll ignore the salary cap involved as I really only want to focus on the assets in/out for the time being. The Oilers are still missing:

1. Viable goaltending
2. Depth scoring.
3. A functioning PK.

Adding a Pulock/Spurgeon would be phenomenal for the 5v5 numbers, but removing RNH will hurt the power play, even if it's been sputtering lately. They also have Campbell's anchor of a deal to move or buy out, with a minimum of two fewer assets to do so. Moving RNH is merely cutting their nose to spite their face here. There's a substantial amount of bloat on the Oilers' roster and they have no value contracts to add to the mix that could ease their short-term burden.

Edmonton needs a very clever GM to make a series of really good small moves to get this team pointed back in the right direction, and I don't know where to start personally. Maybe Marchment and Suter for Foegele and Kulak such that Dallas can afford Kane? Suter's buyout is stomachable next season despite how much dead cap Edmonton will already be contending with next year, especially if the Stars can be talked into using a third party to retain half on the old anchor.


To me I think if they can fix the Dcore enough to where it can help the goalies we may see the need for a goalie be eliminated or reduced from starter to just backup.

Like I questioned LA but man Talbot seems to have figured it out there after a **** year in OTT. And when you look at that Dcore its a pretty good factor

PK I feel will get better once they stabilize the other area's
22 nov. 2023 à 17 h 10
#50
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I suspect Montreal, or at least their fans, will be asking for Broberg, Bourgault, and Edmonton's next two firsts. Possibly more.

That is a hell of a lot of capital to move for what's going to equate to marginal upgrades at the positions Edmonton is hurting at. I don't really like it at all, even if it gets Edmonton out from the Campbell and Kulak contracts in one fell swoop. I would rather a far more creative solution that sees Edmonton get more for its picks and prospects.


Look at the OEL trade for a fairly recent comparable.

3 cap dumps (1 year term)
for
OEL (long term) and Garland (RFA)

It cost them a 1st, 2nd, and 7th.
Garland was a positive asset but OEL was one of the worst contracts in the league.

Edmonton is trying to unload players with multiple years of term.
Montreal doesn't have a contract as bad as OEL's to offset some of that (Gallagher and Anderson have lower cap hits at half the term).
Edmonton isn't looking for a piece as valuable as Garland may have been at the time (young RFA on a 60 point pace), so that helps.
However, they aren't bargaining from a position of strength (putting it lightly), which does not help.
They also aren't moving pure "cap dumps" aside from Campbell, so they may get some credit in a deal if the other team can actually make good use of those players. (Hint: that's not Montreal)

ROUGHLY estimating in comparison:

Campbell's contract alone is worse than the 3 cap dumps by Vancouver. (Totals are $12M x 1 year vs $5M x 3 years, and that's not counting this season.)
The worst contract Montreal can offer is Gallagher (highest value and term) and the best asset they can give back is Montembeault (young RFA).

That would put the starting point around Campbell + 1st + 2nd for Gallagher + Montembeault, which doesn't account for everything in the ARZ/VAN trade comparison.

As a fan I might be convinced to make that deal from either side anyway, but I don't think many would agree.
 
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