In a normal year yes, this year I don’t see it, a lot probably also depends on who gets the 1 through 5 picks. But everybody in that range probably still looking for that one player to hang a franchise on. Probably some crazy deals going down pre and at draft this year. Lots of teams keen to move up and or join the first round

If a team makes that mistake, absolutely.

Theres no way any team does this. You could maybe do it if a team has a high opinion of Michkov and you have third overall but doubt that happens

It entirely depends on the team at number 2. A team planning to draft a defenseman, I could see do it. Chicago, definitely wont do it. CBJ, no way. San Jose, nope.

If Arizona gets number 2, this trade is plausible. They already moved up last draft in the 1st rnd with the Sharks pick at 11OA from 27OA. Armstrong seems open to everything. They are looking at Reinbacher, hard! Getting the number 2 pick from 5-6 would also already be gravy so getting more assets they can flip would make sense.

I feel Arizona would almost be silly not to draft Reinbacher to be honest. They have so much forward talent in their system but not a whole lot on the back end.

I was thinking the same, but with all the draft capital that Arizona all ready has, I would think they just go best player available at 2.

I don't even think it'll be AZ. They already have #12 for that Dman.

Then just take the extra assets if you are drafting Reinbacher. He will be available at 5



Then draft 2 dmen. Or better yet grab Reinbacher and another forward when there are about 15 forwards this draft in the 1st round that have strong potential if they really want Reinbacher and arent sold on another forward outside Bedard. We are operating in the realm of whats possible, not likely. I dont see any org close to trading the 2OA unless its, maybe, the Yotes.

if CBJ picks in the top three (or even top four) the pick is off the table, full stop.

the only exception would be if you came with a godfather offer. dropping from 2 to 5 in a draft where the top tier has four players, three of which are at cbj's biggest positional need (center), isn't that.

a real godfather offer here would be something like suzuki + slafkovsky + #5OA and even then i'm not sure that provides more excess value than three ELC years of adam fantilli.

Think MTL would give Suzuki, Slafkovsky and the 5th overall for the 2nd overall?

no, i don't.

but i think the 0.1% chance that they give that up is greater than the 0% chance that the jackets downgrade from fantilli to will smith and a mid first.

my point is that the draft chart goes out the window when the draft is this stacked at the top

I agree the 2023 draft top 16 is the best since 2015. That's why i wouldn't call FLA 2023 1st a mid first.

Looking at the 2015 draft, Eichel went 2nd, Hanifin went 5th and Barzal 16th. I'd rather have Barzal and Hanifin.

I think Smith + one of ASP/Leonard/Wood or any other prospect available at 16 versus Fantilli is close value wise.

I'm not even sure if i would trade let's say Smith and Leonard for Fantilli. Would you?

there is an enormous drop-off after the top four. none of those picks are getting moved.



i don't think it's close at all in a vacuum. fantilli is more valuable. if not for bedard we'd be talking about him as the best draft-eligible forward since matthews.

for the jackets specifically, it leans even heavier toward fantilli. given the depth in our system, i'd much rather get one premium piece than two very good ones.



still not worth giving up fantilli for that, and i say that as someone who thinks smith and leonard are both top-10 quality prospects.

Eichel or Barzal and Hanifin?

andrei svechnikov or barrett hayton + martin kaut? all drafts are different.

this draft is extremely good at the top, meaning there's a clear group in the top four and a steep drop off after that. why would the jackets move out of that if all they're getting in exchange is a mid-first rounder?

I disagree about 2023 draft being top 4 heavy only. Just like 2015, 2023 will have many elite players drafted top 20.

Yes there's a clear top 4, but Smith and Benson are also locks for 5 and 6, and after that another group of 10 players sure to go in the top 20.

CBJ might not be the right team to trade down, but i think value wise it makes sense. Last year, SJ moved 11 for 27, 34 and 48. I think 5 and 16 for 2 is better.