The cost of Dubois

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Créé par: Shanesaw9

Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal

Date de création initiale: 28 mars 2023

Publié: 29 mars 2023

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/

If Hughes is willing to offersheet Dubois, the cost would only be a 1st and 3rd round pick (or literally nothing in 2024 if the Jets match the offer sheet). This sets the floor for Dubois' value on the trade market.

There are a couple trade comparisons from last season that allow us to gauge what a fair offer for Dubois looks like (something better than the offersheet).

1. Chychrun
- Arizona did not have a lot of leverage when trading Chychrun because they weren't willing to take back any salary (poverty franchise) and their unreasonable asking price drove potential suitors into making other deals until the market dried up. This lack of leverage is a similar situation to the one the Jets find themselves in (actually the Jets are in a worse situation because Chychrun still had 2 years left and didn't isolate the marker to a specific team like Dubois has). The return for Chychrun will be a 1st, and two 2nds.

2. Horvat
- Since MTL could acquire Dubois for nothing in 2024, they are essentially trading for an extra year of Dubois, in other words they are paying the cost of a rental. Horvat is a good comparison as NYI acquired him as a rental and signed him long term (which is what MTL would do with Dubois). The return for Horvat was Beauvillier, Raty, and a 1st round pick.

Given these two offers, I believe an offer of FLA's 2023 1st round pick (assuming it is in the 12 - 16 range), Dvorak, and a B prospect or lower value roster player / pick is the cost of Dubois.

I chose Edmundson as the additional piece for a few reasons:
- Manitoba guy
- Playoff experienced D man with size, carries value around the league (despite coming off a tough season).
- Expendable to MTL with a surplus of young D, possible fit for WPG with Stanley reportedly asking for a trade.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

LISTE DE RÉSERVE		ANS	CAP HIT
Nissen Dichow, Frederik		3	775 000 $

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	8	8 000 000 $
Caufield, Cole	8	8 000 000 $
Gurianov, Denis	1	2 900 000 $
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël	2	775 000 $
Pezzetta, Michael	1	775 000 $
Teasdale, Joël	1	775 000 $
Ylönen, Jesse	1	775 000 $

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Belzile, Alex	1	775 000 $
Richard, Anthony	1	775 000 $
Drouin, Jonathan	1	1 750 000 $

Transactions

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [Droits de RFA]

WPG

Dvorak, Christian
Edmundson, Joel
Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (FLA)

Rachats de contrats

Karl Alzner: 833 333 $

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2023
2024
2025

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	74 224 166 $	1 170 000 $	695 000 $	9 275 834 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Caufield, Cole 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ C UFA - 7	Armia, Joel 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Hoffman, Mike 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG UFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ C UFA - 8
Gurianov, Denis 2 900 000 $2 900 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1	Drouin, Jonathan 1 750 000 $1 750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby 3 362 500 $3 362 500 $ C, AD RFA - 3
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël 775 000 $775 000 $ AG, AD RFA - 2	Evans, Jake 1 700 000 $1 700 000 $ C UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 4
		Gallagher, Brendan 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Matheson, Michael 4 875 000 $4 875 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ DD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ G UFA - 1
Guhle, Kaiden 863 333 $863 333 $ (420 000 $$420K) DG/DD RFA - 2	Harris, Jordan 1 400 000 $1 400 000 $ DG/DD RFA - 2	Allen, Jake 1 925 000 $1 925 000 $ G M-NTC UFA - 2
	Barron, Justin 925 000 $925 000 $ (275 000 $$275K) DD RFA - 1
Xhekaj, Arber 828 333 $828 333 $ DG/DD RFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Pitlick, Rem 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1		Price, Carey 10 500 000 $10 500 000 $ G NMC UFA - 3
Pezzetta, Michael 775 000 $775 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 2
Kovacevic, Johnathan 766 667 $766 667 $ DD UFA - 2

Équipe de réserve
Mesar, Filip 918 333 $918 333 $ (0 $$00 $$0) AD, C RFA - 3
Beck, Owen 885 000 $885 000 $ (0 $$00 $$0) (80 000 $$80K) C RFA - 3

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Suzuki, N.		Dubois, P.		Dach, K.
	Caufield, C.		Matheson, M.

Avantage numérique 2
Drouin, J.		Anderson, J.		Gurianov, D.
	Barron, J.		Hoffman, M.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 23

Subbanator7667

Subbanator

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The Jets are heading into an interesting off season, they can take the road they should take and sell off aiming to acquire prospects and picks or they can head down this road and stay in mediocrity.

Either way it's more likely a prospect is involved in any PLD trade then having two veteran roster players being moved for him

Andy_Dick a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 33

HabsAreSus

Leaf Fan Joke Here

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Ayo...Armia on the top line??? Did I switch into a different dimension overnight?

Fergy22 a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 37

Windjammer

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The Jets haveno reason to accept less than PLD gets as a rental and Edmundson has negative value to the Jets.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 37

Shanesaw9

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Habs 2010

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Modifié 29 mars 2023 à 13 h 46

Quoting: Subbanator7667

The Jets are heading into an interesting off season, they can take the road they should take and sell off aiming to acquire prospects and picks or they can head down this road and stay in mediocrity.

Either way it's more likely a prospect is involved in any PLD trade then having two veteran roster players being moved for him

That would be the 12-16 overall pick. That is the core piece in this deal.

Alternative trade:
FLA 2023 1st Round Pick
COL 2024 2nd Round Pick
Ylonen

The offer with the vets is probably better.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 44

Shanesaw9

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Modifié 29 mars 2023 à 13 h 55

Quoting: HabsAreSus

Ayo...Armia on the top line??? Did I switch into a different dimension overnight?

All Suzuki and Caufield really need is some big plug to win some puck battles who is decent defensively - doesn't really matter who it is.

I like Dach with Dubois, Anderson with Drouin, Gallagher with Evans. Bunch of wildcards like Slafkovsky, 2023 top pick, etc. but Armia could get showcased here... has had success with Suzuki in the past (Suzuki had the best GF% with Armia as his linemate in 2020-21 and I think Caufield-Suzuki-Armia also put up good GF% relative to teammates in 2021-22).

If it gets Armia's value back up so they can trade him that alone is worth it. Main point is, a spot on the top line is up for grabs.

29 mars 2023 à 13 h 44

Aaron_Dell_Pickle

Tony Ferguson Fan

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Edit: I said something stupid but idk how to delete my comment

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 2

Shanesaw9

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Quoting: Windjammer

The Jets haveno reason to accept less than PLD gets as a rental and Edmundson has negative value to the Jets.

I referenced an article and added 6 paragraphs of my own thoughts explaining how I believe this is a fair offer.

Your rebuttal is a 21 word sentence with no analysis in which you combined the words "have" and "no" to form a brand new word. Thank you for your contribution to the discussion.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 7

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Rejoint: janv. 2023

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Beauvillier>>>Dvorak
Raty would be closer to one of the habs top few prospects

using horvat comparable gets Farrell/Beck as comparable to raty

tsyls a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 8

Windjammer

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Modifié 29 mars 2023 à 14 h 14

Quoting: Shanesaw9

Cool. But no reasoning and no logic in your 6 paragraphs doesn't mean a whole lot when Montreal has no leverage to force Winnipeg to take less than a rental return.

If the Jets think PLD has been a good soldier and want to do him a solid and trade him where he wants to to they may take a little less to do him a favour. However, it won't be markedly less or include whatis essentially a cap dump coming back. They'd just move him elsewhere. Problem solved.

Plainly put this offer has less value than your OS scenario, so the Jets would just take Montreal's unprotected 24 1st from the OS in the unlikely event this is the best offer out there.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 10

#10

OilersRule

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Trading anything for Dubois is ridiculous.

This team is still not a playoff contender in the east for 2023-24.

So giving up assets to have Dubois now, AND burn a year off his contract with another lackluster season, doesn't make much sense.

Drouin is awful and Hughes should be fired if he considers re-signing him AND playing him at C, Dvorak is a better keep at 3C.

Moving that Florida pick would be a bad idea, especially with Sandin-pellikka or Wood projected around there, keep the pick, stock the system, sign Dubois in FA, then figure out the goaltending situation.

Andy_Dick a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 15

#11

Shanesaw9

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Quoting: dgibb10

Beauvillier>>>Dvorak
Raty would be closer to one of the habs top few prospects

using horvat comparable gets Farrell/Beck as comparable to raty

How so?

Dvorak: 27 yr old C , 2 years left @$4.45M
- Career PPG: 0.491

Beauvillier: 25 yr old W, 1 year left @$4.15M
- Career PPG: 0.457

So Dvorak is slightly more productive, plays a position of higher value (can also play wing), and offers more team control with a 2 year term vs 1 year. I'd say they are almost perfect comparisons... please elaborate on why you feel Beauvillier is ">>>" Dvorak.

Andy_Dick a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 24

#12

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

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Quoting: Shanesaw9

How so?

Dvorak: 27 yr old C , 2 years left $4.45M
- Career PPG: 0.491

Beauvillier: 25 yr old W, 1 year left $4.15M
- Career PPG: 0.457

So Dvorak is slightly more productive, plays a position of higher value (can also play wing), and offers more team control with a 2 year term vs 1 year. I'd say they are almost perfect comparisons... please elaborate on why you feel Beauvillier is ">>>" Dvorak.

bc dvorak just had a knee surgery, has a M-NTC that starts making him harder to move, is worse defensively, is due 5.75 mill a year in real dollars, and is older. At his contract I view that term as a -ve not a +ve

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 36

#13

danielcoe

Rejoint: juin 2018

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so yougive them Beck and flo picks and mailloux but only if you are allowed to spoeak to Pld and find out how much money he is looking for and you sign him if you cant sign him right awy then i would just wait a year so that you dont give dubois all the leverage.. if he asked t\for too much then you just walk away and you have lost nothing..without a signing dubois will get you much less and then i am not giving up mailloux in the deal

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 38

#14

Andy_Dick

Banni

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Quoting: OilersRule

What no one talks about if if they trade for him the Habs lose leverage in negotiations and pld can ask for whatever dollar figure he wants.

It makes a lot more sense in a rebuild to go without the quick fix and if he really wants to go to Montreal then sign a reasonable deal as a free agent.

Giving up the Florida pick isn’t needed.

Chevy can trade Pld for a late 1st and mid prospect at the deadline. Habs won’t care as they don’t need Dubois with so much depth down the middle for the future and an option at signing him as a free agent.

They sign him, great, otherwise they are well on track to be competitive in 3 years

It makes no sense blowing up the rebuild. But Jets fans that think he’s worth this massive package including A prospects and a top15 pick aren’t thinking about compromise and have no clue about leverage dynamics

Shanesaw9 et OilersRule a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 14 h 53

#15

Shanesaw9

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Quoting: OilersRule

You're probably right, ultimately it might come down to a draft day decision, who is available at the FLA pick and does MTL want Dubois a year early or should they just use the pick?

29 mars 2023 à 17 h 38

#16

slater417

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Hughes isnt going to offersheet PLD because what if wpg matches. Then PLD has lost all leverage AND hughes has those draft picks tied up until WPG matches,
So thats not the bottom of that trade. PLD has leverage because he's going to walk to UFA. But WPG can move him to another team before then as he doesn't have any trade protections, and recoup legit assets for at least a full season of service.
A first + A prospect would probably the ask for PLD at the start of a season.

29 mars 2023 à 19 h 39

#17

Shanesaw9

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Quoting: slater417

If WPG matches an offersheet of 1 yr × $6.4M then they lose Dubois for nothing in 2024 as a free agent. As per the CBA they can't trade him for a year.

Andy_Dick a aimé ceci.

29 mars 2023 à 20 h 0

#18

Andy_Dick

Banni

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Quoting: Shanesaw9

If WPG matches an offersheet of 1 yr × $6.4M then they lose Dubois for nothing in 2024 as a free agent. As per the CBA they can't trade him for a year.

Just offer sheet him at 4.1 million. PLD understands he'll be paid later. Let Winnipeg match, not able to trade for a year and get nothing (obviously its kinda sketch and bettman wouldnt be happy but it shows the position the jets are in and how oblivious these jets homers are atm) These homers are dumb asking for these bounties. It would be hilarious to see leverage used here.

29 mars 2023 à 20 h 47

#19

Shanesaw9

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Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

PLD would never agree to that, if he is to sign an offersheet it would be with the hope and intent that WPG does not match so he is free to play with MTL. WPG matches $4.1M all day, but @ $6.4M there is a legitimate chance WPG takes the 1st and 3rd round pick and moves on.

29 mars 2023 à 20 h 52

#20

dgibb10

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Quoting: Shanesaw9

PLD would never agree to that, if he is to sign an offersheet it would be with the hope and intent that WPG does not match so he is free to play with MTL. WPG matches $4.1M all day, but $6.4M there is a legitimate chance WPG takes the 1st and 3rd round pick and moves on.

If you really want to go the offer sheet route and ensure PLD signs it make it 8.4 for 1 year. Extra 2nd, not a chance they match and the habs aren't gonna be near the cap next year regardless.

29 mars 2023 à 20 h 53

#21

Andy_Dick

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Quoting: dgibb10

If you really want to go the offer sheet route and ensure PLD signs it make it 8.4 for 1 year. Extra 2nd, not a chance they match and the habs aren't gonna be near the cap next year regardless.

PLEASE GOD OFFER SHEET. The hilarity would be entertaining. We agree on something. My Gawd

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