They’ve been trying to trade Willy on here for like 5 years. It’s not gonna stop any time soon

Here’s what I see with the Leafs, they’re cap strapped, and have too much money tied in to a set of four guys (over the cap with a roster of 22 guys). I think dropping a contract like Tavares would be the smartest option (not saying that he’s bad, just not worth 11 Mil). If you guys find another Alex Kerfoot or two, you’ll be fine.

I'm not a TOR fan but from what I can see it is because he is probably TOR's biggest trade chip and this is the last year before his M-NTC kicks in and once his contract expires after the 23-24 season TOR will not be able to afford him without moving Marner or Tavares or another big contract. So, right now he is at peak trade value and TOR needs young cost controlled players to combat future cap issues. As far as TOR "hating" him, I have no clue where that came from. A few guys on here incessantly post that "willy needs to go NOW" for some reason, even though he far exceeds his expected production, has become damn near a point per game player in the playoffs and regular season, has a great motor, and would be a great piece to commit to long term if TOR can figure out a way to swing it. Just don't be surprised if he is traded. It makes a lot of sense to do it now IF they are going to do it at all.

Over 1/3 of the NHL teams are currently over the cap. This isn’t just a Leafs issue.

You trade Holl and Kerfoot (for pennies in the dollar probably) but there is your space.

Have leafs fans not heard of lowercase?

I understand that, but the question is, who are you replacing them with? Who will replace Kerfoot’s 35-40 point production, and Holl’s ability to play top four minutes? It’s easy to say “just trade them away” but you also have to find replacements. It’s a matter of if Robertson and Liljegren are ready.

Trade Kerfoot sign Milano 3x2 , Trade Holl & sign De-Haan potentially >1.5 x2 problems solved

It’s a risk absolutely but one worth taking. The Leafs need to start giving their younger players a shot. I will take Nylander and his 80 points over Kerfoot + Holl any day. It’s absolutely time to give Liljegren and Sandin more mins and responsibilities.

Robertson has proved enough at the AHL level, it’s time to give him a legit shot. Sink or swim. I watch the Marlies a lot, there young kids are ready.

Fair point, hope I’m not coming across as looking for an argument. Good talk boys 👍

Not only that but If it all comes down to it package a 1st with Muzz to ship
him out, its better than losing an 80+ point 26 year old

Of course not dude, hope I wasn’t either.

Healthy conversation

That's what you guys always do. When someone's contract is getting above 4 million or scratching at the door, It doesn't matter what role they play or what they do to help better the team(Kerfoot, Hyman,Mango)
Out the door they go to keep the Four
Look up the definition of insanity

The truth is that they can't really drop any of them and get a replacement for them. They just have to hope they can extend Matthews and Nylander, then Marner and perhaps Tavares the following year. They will have the same amount of cap space tied in the 4 probably maybe more even, and they will have to rely on the 2024-25 cap jump to be very significant.

Depending on what Marner and Matthews get, they could be severely handicapped. Defense and Goaltending will need to be filled with quality players on budget contracts.

The Big issue i find is, People trade Willy & Kerfoot for like Severson,Johnsson & a 2nd then have someone tell me Severson who has 1 year left is worth as much as Willy cause he is on the devils playing Top minutes. I understand if the Leafs need to trade Willy for an asset but people need to understand that underpaying for Willy is not a possibility

They hate him because he's not physical and they got some ammunition from last playoffs when the Leafs were losing 0-5, he let the other team player get yhe puck instead of taking a hit, which for 1) there is no sense in him risking injury at that point 2) it's something that he apparently does always and usually he stick checks the guy to gain possession instead of getting slammed and losing it. The guy has more takeaways than giveaways. He also takes hits all the time. 3) He will probably start dishing it out like he was in the WC.

I saw one person complaining about how he stands at the perimeter. Someone told them to go complain to Keefe about the set up for a breakout pass.

These same people would hate Kucherov, Panarin, and maybe even Ovechkin although he throws hits and is prolific goal scorer (that might make them forget).

Thats how you know you understand exactly 0 of the Leafs contract situations, Only 2 guys are signed past 2026 They are Jarkrok & Rielly. The Leafs are relying on the cap increasing but in Bettmans own words “The Debt will have been payed off & the Cap should increase exponentially in the 2025-26 season i see a 4-7 mil increase. That being said until
then will be hell but the Leafs situation is not as bad as people think. They have pieces they can move & as stated before they will have a ton of Cap Maneuverability & Marner & Matthews are already worth their extensions plus JT will most likely take a discount which basically might equate to the raises of both MM & AM

I thought Bettman said the rise should be expected for the 24-25 season most recently.

Anyways I wasn't saying that the Leafs have a major problem with their cap now-it's more of an inconvenience. As you pointed out, the Leafs only have 2 contracts for 2026 and beyond. The Leafs don't have to do anything but if Dubas is still around (and even id he's not it's what the next guy should do) is keep the 4 and that will likely result in the same total $ amount to retain the 4 (could be more or less). Until there is a massive rise though and perhaps even a year after, they could still experience a cap squeeze.

Assuming Tavares gets 7x3, Nylander 9.5, Marner 12, and Matthews 13.1, the dollar value is the same. Worst case, Liljegren and Sandin replace Brodie and Muzzin on the books, but to replace Gio at 900K (barring ELCs like Niemela) will result in a 2.1m increase in cost (should be covered by the 2m increase from 2023-2025). Goaltending in this scenario won't be an issue since there is 6.5m allocated already. There will be two top 6 spots to fill, since Kerfoot's allocation needs to come off the books for the Leafs to be compliant after signing Sandin if he takes 2m. So, the allocation increase of the top 6 would be Bunting+Engvall, ~3.1M total. So depending on how much the top 6 for the 2026 are making it could increase the cap squeeze that they are facing now in the top 6, bottom 6 fwds, and bottom 6 def, or the squeeze could remain relatively the same.

If the cap increase of the 2025-26 season is 10m, then they won't be facing much of a squeeze except in the bottom six assuming the top 6 guys take 7 of the 10m in my scenario.

Possibilities that could lead to more relief: 1) Minten @2-3m can replace Tavares@7m in 3 years then that's more relief. 2) A cheap top 6 signed through 2025-26,ex. Bunting is signed for 3.1mx4 next season or Robertson is signed for 2-3m through 2025-26 and Knies gets 3-6m coming off ELC. 3) Matthews walks 4) Nylander walks or is traded for a cost controlled replacement

Possibilities that could lead to less cap: 1) Matthews signs for 14-15m 2) Nylander is retained for 11M. 3) Brodie is resigned for 2-3 years after his contract expires at 4m.

In short, it is easy to say Dubas made a mistake in his thinking of allocating a lot to elite forwards but we will truly never know because of the flat cap or if they do it again.

TB's strategy was paying 3F-1D-1G, will be interesting to see how that works out for them without the use of LTIR. I think they will have to shift to 2F-2D-1G next season. That being said it seems Dubas views his core as 4F-3D (the five+Brodie & Muzzin who ideally get replaced by Liljegren&Sandin). TB's is probably 3F-3D-1G, Point, Kucherov, Stamkos (will be Cirelli), Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak (previously McDonagh), Vesi. I think Stamkos might get moved out next season. Extended core would be the 3C/future 3Cs in Paul and Järnkrok.