2022 is a deep draft and Ottowa's roster still isn't that great. Plus KK is worth no where near that. MTL probably takes the picks and runs

That is a super risky os for ottawa

1. How deep is it going to be compared to 2018?


2. Not every season is the same.

If Ottawa barely misses the playoffs or gets swept in the 1st round and the 1st is 15th overall or something, then it might be worth it if KK explodes with Stutzle.


3. I know KK is not worth 6 million per.

It's just to steal him from the Habs when we have the cap space to do it.

Sometimes, you got to take a risk to get ahead

It's only 2 years and KK will still be under team control.

And we're stealing him from a division rival.

If only Melnyk wasn't with Sens...

The term is something I don't understand though. It's a short deal with potentially huge qualifying offer too.

Habs will most likely match, then os Tkachuk, batherson or stutzle down the road

1. If KK explodes with Stutzle, the QO in 2 years could be worth it.

2. Montreal will be right up against the cap for the next 2 years also.

Tkachuk and Batherson will be signed this offseason.

Once that happens, the offer-sheet for KK can take place.

I'm not worried about Stutzle because he doesn't need an extension until 2024.



If Montreal wants to match the offersheet for KK at 6 million per, that's just dandy.

How do they come up with the cap space for the next 2 years with that on the books?

I think a Kotkaniemi OS would be funny, but 6mil for a guy who hasn't consistently shown himself to be more than a 3rd liner to this point is insane, and moving an unprotected 1st next year for Kotkaniemi is even more insane. Even if Ottawa takes the next step this year (which I think they will) the Sens are unlikely to make the playoffs, and that means there's a very high chance the Sens are giving up a high pick that's a potential lottery pick in a good draft. Way too much of a risk for Ottawa.

1. Kotkaniemi was once a high pick not too long ago.

The 6 million is only for two years.


2. If it's a lottery pick, it can only move up a maximum of 10 spots.

If it turns out to be 15th Overall, it might be worth it.

Where do you believe we'll be picking next year?


3. If I offer-sheeted KK the maximum 4 million or whatever it is for paying only a 2nd, everybody would be saying "Montreal matches".

Montreal's cap is not as bad as you think it is. Byron and Drouin's deals expire after 22-23 season Chiarot's expires after the 21-22 season and we can move players like Armia, Lehkonen, Drouin, Anderson, Edmundson and others to free up any space we need to retain KK, Suzuki, Caufield or Romanov. You would have to OS KK in the 6.2-8.2 rang minimum to have us consider not matching but that also means Ottawa loses their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for the 22 draft. Someone above kept going on about how it would be funny to steal KK from a divisional rival but do you seriously think Montreal would let him go to a divisional rival for anything less than a 1st, 2nd and 3rd? No they wouldn't! Ottawa also wouldn't risk paying that so this whole conversation is a moot point.

1. In my scenario, the Habs can have KK at a cap hit of over 6 million for the next 2 years or they can have an unprotected 1st and a 3rd.

They can't have both.

Whether Montreal considers matching or not is completely irrelevant, once the offer-sheet is issued.



2. I'm overpaying KK twice as much as he should be.

2a. It is so Ottawa either steals a centreman with lots of potential from a division rival

Or

2b. It ruins the cap situation of said rival and Ottawa keeps the picks.

2c. Although there are plenty of risks, the incentives to try and pull off something like this are there.



3. If offer-sheets are too risky or never work, then they should be made illegal by NHL rules.

There's no sense in having them around, if that's the case.

Ottawa doesn't want KK. If you want to offersheet wait for next season and offersheet Suzuki.

I wouldn't give up that 1st round pick for KK straight up with or without the crappy contract.

I don't think KK is the type of guy that you should be willing to overpay for, and you have to overpay in order for an offer sheet to be successful. There's no shot I'm giving him 6.2mil. If we're to consider offer sheeting anyone, I'd much rather give 10.275mil to Pettersson, who has at least already shown he's a good first line centre with elite potential.

Kotka was a high pick, but he was a reach. He's young, and will be a good player, but he doesn't have huge upside, probably maxes out as a 2C capable of putting up 20ish goals 50ish points. Would definitely be nice to have, but there's way too much risk for that deal to look horrible depending on where that pick lands.

As far as where I see Ottawa picking, I'd be reasonably comfortable in saying that Ottawa will finish higher than Buffalo, Arizona, Anaheim, Columbus, Detroit and San Jose. I don't think any of those teams are trying to be good THIS year. So I would have Ottawa likely picking in the 7-16 range, as I don't see them making the playoffs this year. That's likely a very high pick, and a not insignificant change of being a 1st or 2nd overall pick. There's a very good crop prospects in the 1st round next year, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that even if Ottawa is drafting towards the middle of the 1-16 range there will be players available who have as much or more upside than Kotkaniemi. I think Ottawa would be risking a lot here, and in my opinion it would be WAY too much to justify.

1. What if the 1st round pick turns out to be somebody not as good as KK?

KK was drafted 3rd overall not too long ago in what was known as a "deep" draft.



2. The "crappy" contract is only used to force the Habs to make a decision on either keeping KK or relinquishing him to the Sens, a division rival no less.

Based on the comments in this thread, not everybody is in agreement on whether the Habs match.

But does it really?

1. Montreal matches and keeps KK
2. Montreal OS B. Tkachuk at 8 mil and screws Ottawa when they match then OS Batherson at 6 mil and further screws Ottawa. Let's not forget Brannstrom next year and Stutzel the year after. Do you see where we are going? Melnyck is too cheap to send an OS and would get tired of overpaying his young stars too early as well.

I'd let the Habs have Batherson at 6 mil. Habs would be in cap hell with both KK and Batherson signed for a combined 12M+.

Better than having 4 guys making half the cap!

This upcoming draft is supposed to be the best since 2015.

The difference is those 4 guys are stars and can be traded. KK and Batherson at 6M have negative value.

We'll see

1. If Montreal matches and keeps KK, the objective of ruining the cap situation of a division rival will have been accomplished.


2. Montreal taking on Batherson and KK at 6 million each while we keep our draft picks and take a 1st and a 3rd from Montreal would be a dream come true.


3. This conventional wisdom that Melnyk is too cheap to do anything for his team completely overlooks times where he did spend big (i.e. Matt Murray)

Personally, I'm against offer sheets. This one is super risky for Ottawa while pissing off a direct rival from the same division

This is unnecessary. I would rather explore other avenues. I know nothing has been happening and it's frustrating but if they'd be READY to spend that much "undeserved" money on Kotkaniemi, then they could have done a TON OF THINGS during the expansion draft, draft and free agency...




I understand the sentiment as a Sens fan is proposing to OS one of your players but MTL won't be able to do that as they'll be up against the cap for the next while.

Habs place weber on ltir permanetly and sign KK with ease, than easily sign suzuki next season by moving drouin