Or just don't waste the 1st and offer him a deal when he is FA.

I think the rationale is to offer the 8th year to lower the AAV by a bit. But I don't think you have to make it such a big trade, just offer up a 3rd and STL says yes (assuming he's decided he wants to leave). The Canucks won't accept that... Demko is a stud goalie and their guy for the future.

It's been pretty widely reported he's been offered 8 x $8 by STL.

Why would he take less from the Leafs?

The point of another team doing and sign a trade with STL is to keep the AAV below $9M per year, not $8M.

I know the VAN trade is not the point of the post but VANs not trading Demko for that return.

St Louis offered him 8 million with no bonuses. If I am Dubas I would offer less term at 8 with loads of bonus and then if he wants higher average, less term.

It's too much for him. He has been an average to below average backup who had 3 amazing playoff games.

idk about that. He's a 24 year old goalie breaking into the leauge who doesnt look to far from being a reliable starter. Don't think he's ready to be a starter next year but maybe the year after and i'd say thats worth more then 2 seconds and a third.

IMO he wants $60M+ with bonuses, but more in the middle (to avoid 30% of it going to escrow in first couple of years) and end of the contract (so it's buyout proof).

Leafs won't be the only team to be able to offer that type of contract, as it likely won't have the $15M high years like the Tavares contract.

3+ GAA this year and then 3 great playoff games. That does not shout "reliable starter"

Who else can afford that?

Technically the Leafs can't, so I guess any team could if they wanted him bad enough. Vegas for example doesn't seem afraid to go hard after players they want.

No it doesnt but if you've watched him play over the last few years instead of just reading stats, you would see he does have a good chance of panning out. Not every goalie is a carry price or carter hart and can play well in the nhl at a young age, just look at markstrom, his first two years in the nhl as a second string he had a GAA over 3 and a horrible save percentage and now he's a legit starting goalie. It's not uncommon for goalies to hit there prime until there mid 20s or older.

In this economy? Over half the teams want to cut space. The other half is desperate to move guys to afford their RFA's. There are like 4 teams who could afford it and less that have the money for big bonuses

Cool, but the point is he hasn't done enough to warrant a big return

Thats the point of trading for young talent, they havent done anything yet but you think they can in the future. His potential does warrent a bigger return.

I think he would take the same deal from the Leafs (8x8) or any team that is willing to give him bonuses in years 1 and 2.

Why does he want big bonuses in Yr 1 & 2? That's when escrow will be 30%. Brodin's deal is the template for new contracts (obv bonuses added), not Tavares deal.

But next season is still somewhat uncertain. If the season is delayed/suspended a week or 2 in due to a COVID outbreak, he's already got his money.

Bonuses are subject to escrow.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2020/9/21/21446632/no-one-wants-a-john-tavares-style-contract-this-season-cba-maple-leafs-cant-use-signing-bonuses

I know that... I never said they aren't. I said that even with escrow, getting bonuses upfront would give him some certainty with all that's going on around us.

So the No.1 thing the guy that has earned tens of millions of dollars over his career will be concerned about is having some $$ in his pocket if something delays/derails next season?

Why wouldn't it be? By that logic, why wouldn't he just take a minimum contract because he already has tens of millions?

He ends up keeping way more money if the bonuses and higher years start half way through the contract.