Im not saying hes a write off, just you wont get the value back in him after 2 years especially after this season. No team will invest a top 3 pick in a trade hoping a guy reaches his potential.

Isn't that what the 3rd overall pick is? Investing in a guy hoping to reach his potential? It's literally trading for the same thing.

I would still be saying that, 3rd overall pre selected draft picks hold just way to much perceived value. No team is going to move than unless they are getting a true game breaker back in a trade.
Nolan Patrick had a 30 point season as an 18 year old as well...food for thought

Brand new top rated draft and the perceived over valuing of their new potential vs a guy who has played more than a handful of games and start to see what is good and what his flaws are at the nhl level...teams arent buying high on that

So you two would take the kid who is only 10 months younger playing in Liiga over the kid who at the same age was playing as the youngest player in the NHL with success?

Good logic, I guess

His only true knock is his skating which has significantly improved in the past few seasons. It's not his fault he was playing on the 3rd line with two AHL wingers. He's constantly creating offensive chances whilst playing in his defensive zone first. Not sure why team's wouldn't be interested in that.

probably an early-mid 1st at this point.

That I agree with, persived value in drafting is a the biggest reason top end picks dont get moved draft day. Well since Brian Burke was a GM at least

this is not an attack on him as a player, I quite like him and think hes a big core piece for you guys moving forward. Its just the way NHL seems to operate.
There are hundreds of stories of NHL team wont move their prospect or draft pick bc they love the guy who they have targeted or just picked and their potential vs a guy who is in the NHL. Teams and GMs value the pre NHL and draft pick to an unreasonable amount.

You have to buy with a kings ransom top 5 picks from teams via trade. Thats just my point, Kotkaniemi doesnt hold a kings ransom value right now. A team might be smart and watch him bloom into a stud when hes 22-23 (Nathan MacKinnon says hello, and im sure no team would have traded the 1st overall pick for Mack when he was on his ELC)

No NHL player has their story completely written after 2 years. Jumbo Joe got 7 points his rookie year. The perception that JK digressed is an opinion. People can agree or disagree...provide support for and against it. It's an opinion. JK's rookie years was pretty impressive IMO. I don't see MTL trading him away, but I do think it's a fair assessment to it's something MB should keep an eye on.

I just mentioned this to @HabsForEver ...would a team have traded their 1st round pick for MacKinnon when he was 19 coming off a 63 point rookie season(2014 Ekbad) They would have probably asked for more or just straight up rejected it bc they love the guy they want. Thats how over valued the 1st overall pick is just as an extreme example

Yeah I understand that point of view. It's pretty unfair to ask the question of what he is worth then if we are talking about draft picks as they hold an unreasonable value.

there was that speculated trade for the yakupov 1st overall pick and offered up all their draft picks and the Oilers still said no. If there was any truth to that, oilers could have been set up for a decade doing that deal but decided nah we love our guy

Can we trade Murray for KK+

Murray was the 2nd overall pick and hasn’t lived up to it. KK was 3rd and 2nd > 3rd right?

All jokes aside. Not all draft classes are equal. The 2020 draft class is pretty loaded and the 2019 class was good. I’m not sure KK would have been top 3 last year or if he’d even be top 5 this year.

I think the best comparison for him is PLD, both were centers taken 3rd overall and were a reach at that pick. PLD has worked great for Columbus and KK hasn’t been that spectacular for Montreal. I think next year is a make or break year for him. Good rookie season followed by a sophomore slump.

Last note, KK had a pretty poor year his current value is lower then it should be do to the poor year. Montreal shouldn’t trade him when his value is at an all time low like it is now.

People only look at the stats to conclude what his value is. He's had a fantastic rookie season as the youngest player in the league with almost no power-play time. He's had a disappointing sophomore season but he absolutely tore it up in Laval. The matter is that he's not a goal scorer but a playmaker and most of the time he's paired with Lehkonen and Armia who both can't finish to save their lives. Give him proper linemates and power-play time and he's gonna prove that he is top 3 worthy

That's what you do when you draft a guy at 3rd overall. You hope he reaches his potential.

but you wont get a 3rd overall pick back for him while he is in flux getting there

Edmonton can throw in Puljujarvi and the rights to Yakupov too. Jackets and Oilers can share Kotkaniemi, 41 games apiece, and coin toss the playoffs round by round.

Deal?

I'm not trying to suggest he would get a 3rd overall pick.

At the end of the day when the habs drafted KK Timmins said we are taking the player who may not be the best right now, but who we see being the best years from now.

After a successful rookie season, better than Hughes and Kakko's might I add, are you saying KK's value should have been higher than a 3rd?

After a poor sophomore season, which starting the year injured contributed too, do you think MTL management thinks hes a bust? He was still the 6th youngest player in the NHL this season and he played great in the AHL.

I don't get your arguement of "a team would rather keep the 3rd than hope a guy like KK reaches his potential". MTL literally drafted KK hoping he would reach his potential, as would any other team drafting any player.

The idea of trading KK for a 3rd overall pick is idiotic and no one is suggesting anyone should do that (from both sides), but your arguement against KK implies that his value has dropped, when in MTL's eyes at least, KK is exactly the player they were expecting, he had a pleasantly good rookie season and then some disappointing injuries this season. How does that = value dropped?

Mid 1st? The audacity sir.

Your claim is supported nicely with evidence too.

'early-mid 1st'

something like this doesn't happen often. not really much to rely on.

Perceived value = Hype value. That's not necessarily a bad thing either. Its literally how the world works. We all do it.

Good GM's know when the perceived value has a lot of fluff raising it. The bad GM's are the ones that buy into the hype and pay for the fluffed perceived value. Sometimes you have to if you know its something you have to do but in most cases you avoid paying that fluff because you won't get that value back more times than not.

KK has negative fluff value right now but its not indicative of his real value as a player.