Not a chance in hell he is worth even 9.5M for 8 Years.

2 yrs=8+
3 yrs=9+
6 yrs=10+
7 yrs=11+

I wish he would sign for like 8x8 or something reasonable like that. But I think we all know that's not happening, and convincing his group to be reasonable is off the table.

Ideal? I doubt it

Garbage corsi stats....A one year older and more experience player puts up better numbers, no matter who they play with. The non J.T. years was Marner 18-20 year old seasons. Corsi numbers are a fake science when it doesn't factor the real world, only the numbers PEOPLE want. Propaganda.

It's also worth mentioning Matthews isn't worth 11.6, on a 5-year term. I like him a lot, he's a great player, but not enough term for the money. That gives Marner leverage. If Dubas is going to give out more than Matthews is worth (which he did), he's probably going to give out more than Marner is worth.

It's common knowledge that Marner was/is a liablilty on the defensive end. Anything good defensively from him, I take as a bonus, like his PK last year. The corsi numbers matter, yes, but we all know he's bad defensively.

Well he won't sign a bridge deal, I think 6 years is what he signs, than he'll know what Matthews and Nylander get on the UFA market and both him and his BFF (J.T.) are UFA at the same time.

I mean Corsi, Fenwick, I could get Season ice stats where he was hot and cold.

That's what I think, 6 years is the best. On most, if not all of my acgm's, i've had him sign for 6 years and low 9's. Fingers crossed.

Bad defensively, he puts more effort in his defensive play than more than half the Leafs forward group does. He's at least average but still getting better, not bad.

I think it realistically falls at 3 or 6 years, and I think at 3 its 8.5m ish, I think at 6 they go 9.75 or something, maybe even give him the 10 just to make him happy. I would be happy with your suggestions, and 500k+ on mine would be a borderline overpayment imo.

Getting better? Yeah, I'll give you that. But before Tavares signed, His line with JVR and Boz was awful defensively, all 3 players. Playing with Tavares and Hyman certainly makes him look better than he is in his own end, that's my opinion.

6x10 is absolute max for 6 years, going up by 500k for a 7-year deal, and another 500k for an 8-year deal. Absolute max. I wouldn't want a bridge, it'll put him in line to possibly make 13-14 in that time, if he plays well and the cap inflates with the new TV deal in 2 years, as I've been hearing.

My upper limit now after Aho signing is 9.5/8. But really i think it shoudl be 9.1/8

Again, we can't expect a truly fair deal. The Leafs are going to have to compromise, but the hope is that Marner's group does the same so that the number is manageable for the Leafs. Key word: Manageable. It's clear that Marner's group wants a bigger piece of the pie than he's worth.

Imo it just depends how long dubas holds out. If he waits until training camp I think its 9x6. if its a mid summer deal its closer to 10x6.

Why would the price go down during camp? If anything it goes up, since the Leafs would be desperate to get him in time for opening night to avoid pro-rating his cap hit. Holding out is an option for Marner too, like Willy did last year. Difference is that if he's not here on opening day, he won't be here this season.

if you look at how his agent Darren Ferris has handled things, Sam Bennett, Athanasiou, Josh Anderson, etc.. all leaving their ELCs hold out all summer until Sept/Oct, then cave to very close to what to team wants. I do see the cap concerns, but although many people don't see this, I think Dubas showed that he's not going to get bullied with the Nylander deal. Willy got over a mil less than he wanted, and longer term. I think there comes a point in Sept when dubas makes it clear that this is the maximum offer and that they can't afford more, and they can't afford to have Mitch miss games. make it clear he needs to drop his ask significantly or sit out the season.

?

You have to remember going by 500K raise is ok for each of the RFA years, but 1 million increase to buying up any UFA years. Bridge @ 8 for 3 years, than year 5 would be 9 million and a 6 year contract 10 million. I strongly believe the NHL needs to go down to playing 4 on 4 hockey so, just like in the NBA, the best players are always on the ice/court.

My best guess is 3yrs at a shade over $10m. Something silly with his number in it like $10,160,000.

I don't understand the Aho thing and don't think it set the market. More surprising that Carolina's offers to him were so bad that the Habs offer sheet was attractive enough for him to sign it.

Really just my opinion on what I've heard out of the Marner camp for the last year. They were always looking to piggy back off of Matthews' #. Fair/market value/etc. don't matter much to the Marner camp. That doesn't mean Dubas cracks and gives him what he wants...but the starting point in negotiations for them is almost certainly Auston's number. I could see $11.5m on a 7-8yr term if the leafs free up the space to do it...a bit over $10m on 3yrs...or mid $9's on a yr or 2.

Just a hunch and my opinion...not dragging advanced stats or even trying to suggest I think he's worth that...just where I think it ends up.

Not saying it's ideal but i think he gets somewhere between Aho and Panarin, my guess is 6 years 10.5 yes its an overpayment and i wouldn't go that high personally just my guess hopefully its less though

The offer sheet max is 10.6 million to receive the 4 1st Rounders, so I believe the Marner/Leafs use that number as a minimum for a long term contract.

Realistically Marner is worth around 7.5/8M for 8 Years, but getting Mitch Marner Camp to think about this rationally is out of the question. We all know Marner has terrible defense, and if it wasn't for Tavares he wouldn't have the offensive stats he does which is why it makes him such an attractive player. Marner trying to base his deal off of Matthews is completely ridiculous to me, as he is not as good nor will ever be as good as Auston Matthews. The big thing is that Dubas needs to figure what is capfriendly to the team, and signing him a 10.5/11M deal for 8 Years does not seem like something Toronto can afford with guys like Liljegren, and Sandin coming around, and when you add in other contracts that are ELC right now, that will need to up the money in upcoming years.

It seems natural for Mitch Marner, and Camp try to make as much money as possible, but he isn't worth Matthews money, and he wouldn't be worth Stamkos money in my mind. The idea he should be making more than Evgeni Malkin to me is widely insane. Simple fact that he is carried by JT, and not the greatest on defense. I'd say 7.5-8M is about worth it.