Marners Contract by the Numbers

Équipe: 2019-20 Maple Leafs de Toronto

Date de création initiale: 7 févr. 2019

Publié: 7 févr. 2019

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

First I'm going to use points per game on ELC vs % of cap

Nylander - 135PTS - 185GP = 0.73 pts/g - 6.962 AVV / 79.5 CAP = 8.77% of cap
Matthews - 179PTS - 183GP = 0.98 pts/g - 11.634 AVV / 83 CAP = 14.02% of cap

Marner - 191PTS - 207GP = 0.92 pts/g

If we want the pts per game ratio to % percentage of cap

Nylander - 0.73 / 8.77 = 0.083
Matthews - 0.98 / 14.02 = 0.070

Using Nylander's ratio - % of cap = 11.08 --> 9.196 AVV
Using Matthew's ratio - % of cap = 13.14 --> 10.906 AVV

Using the average of the two, which is fair because Marner isn't a center, but he's also a one of a kind winger - 12.11 % of cap --> 10.051 AVV

As an elite winger comparison, Kane got 11.09 % of the cap on a 5 year deal.

12.11 % of cap could either be for 5 or 6 years, I will calculate both just to see the difference.

I'm going to use Chris Johnston's tweet that speculates the AAV for an 8 year contract for Matthews as a reference to see how the term affects the AAV. Part of me believes the leafs organization actually leaked this number to calm the fan base about the 5 year term.

Here's the tweet - https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1092859349473640452

5 year - 11.643 AAV / 83 CAP = 14.02%
8 year - 13.8 AAV / 83 CAP = 16.63%

That's a 0.87 % increase per year

5 year - 11.643 AAV
6 year - 12.359 AAV
7 year - 13.081 AAV
8 year - 13.8 AAV

Doing the same exercise with Marner's 12.11% of cap we got earlier...

First column will be for 12.11 % as the 5 year number, second as the 6 year number

5 year - 10.051 AAV - 9.329 AAV
6 year - 10.773 AAV - 10.051 AAV
7 year - 11.496 AAV - 10.773 AAV
8 year - 12.217 AAV - 11.496 AAV

I think the second column is more realistic if you consider Kane's 11.09% of the cap on a 5 year deal ( 9.205 AAV with a 83 CAP ).

Personally I'd rather the 6 x 10.051 to stagger the contracts and to leave more room for the Johnsson/Kapanen contracts.

*** Reminder that cap crunchs with talented young players are a good thing ***