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tjk

Loyal To The Oil
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Oilers d'Edmonton
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Forum: Fauteuil - DG23 févr. à 19 h 21
Sujet: Montreal
Love the depth of this breakdown, you put a lot of thought into it!

From an Oilers perspective, Savard wouldn't be my favourite option but he is someone I could see us trading for if we can get money in money out. I don't mean we have to be trading money back to the Habs, I think the value you said is fair.

For the other trades:
- I don't know what the value of Allen will be, it is highly dependent on other goalies getting traded. I could see this happening if he is the only goalie available, it would be nitpicking to say oh it's not a good enough pick, I just assume Kings fans will want more. Kaliyev has been a killer every time I've seen him play.
- I don't think the value is terrible. I just think you're going to have to look at a Zegras deal almost as an Eichel-like trade. I'm not saying they're comparable but his ceiling is close to Eichel's. But I like the idea of MTL trading for him given how poorly they have drafted. I just think that will have to be the MTL pick (between 4-10) and not a pick between 26-32.
- I don't think it's enough value on Krebs. This one is worse than the Kaliyev one imo, should at the minimum be a 2nd.
- The Lundell trade has no shot of happening, especially considering Matheson has been in Florida before and they shipped him out.
- The last one is unrealistic (you basically said as much) but the value is pretty far off imo. Imagine if you had Seider and were to even consider trading him, you'd want way more. I'm talking 3+ 1sts and a player in the NHL producing like Caufield. I think Caufield and 3 1sts is closer to fair for Seider than what you proposed.

All and all, appreciate the thought and effort.

But my thoughts:
1. Kaliyev and Krebs probably both cost a 2nd and prospect (at least that range).
2. Savard trade is semi-fair, I like the thought of Allen to LAK.
3. Zegras would net the 7th overall pick you mentioned and other stuff. I still think the Habs should do that.
4. Lundell trade is not the right spot or player, but you should trade Matheson.
5. Seider trade is unrealistic and undervalued.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 févr. à 16 h 32
Sujet: Screw it we ball
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Over the past 1.5 seasons Guentzel has scored 0.25 goals/game at 5v5, compared to Foegele's 0.176 goals/game.

<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&amp;thruseason=20232024&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=n&amp;p1=8477998&amp;p2=8477404&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Foegele v Guentzel, 5v5 counts</a>

In the last quartile of the season, that amounts to a grand total of 1.5 additional goals. Is that 1.5 goals really worth Lavoie + Lachance + 1st + 3rd to you?</div></div>

Foegele and Guentzel have both played 58 playoff games in their career. Foegele has 16pts, Guentzel has 58pts and a cup.

Yes, that difference is worth a pick and whatever prospects to me.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 févr. à 14 h 20
Sujet: Screw it we ball
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>1. Brown's bonus has already been paid out by Edmonton so the bonus cap hit is their's irrespective. So trading a 2nd to "dump" a player making league minimum is silly. Send him to the minors, send a 5th to Chicago for Entwistle.
2. Ceci is not a cap dump. He has played the 24th most minutes v Elites of any defenseman in the league over the past 2.5 seasons and has kept his head above water with a 51.8 xGF% at 5v5. He gives full effort every single night and makes just $3.25M.
3. Guentzel was barely an upgrade on Foegele pre-injury and we don't know how he'll perform post-injury. Plus he played over 90% of this TOI with Crosby while Foegele's most common center was Ryan McLeod. Why is Edmonton adding prospects &amp; picks? Guentzel is a rental they won't be able to re-sign.
4. I think the trade value is about right, not convinced the target is though.
5. If 1st minus two 3rds is about the same value as a 2nd, why not just trade a 2nd? I don't think it's wise to give up a 1st for a 4th liner, even if he's a good one.</div></div>

Thanks for the info. Wasn't sure how the bonus worked. That's why I was saying if we're paying his bonus change it to a 4th or 5th.

2. While I disagree, I think it's all relative. Like if there isn't a way we can get a definite upgrade we should just keep him, thereby he isn't a "dump". But if it means getting a RD upgrade I think I'd "dump" him with a 3rd somewhere. It's a cause-and-effect trade, I'm only saying it's a "dump" because it enables another move for a better player with the same salary, not because I think Ceci is a bad player or has a bad deal that needs to be "dumped".

3. I think Guentzel is a clear upgrade over Foegele, and if you are gonna use the argument that he's good because he plays with Crosby, you could then reason that he will also be good with McDavid or Drai. I don't think we can re-sign Foegs anyways, so for half a season it's worth the upgrade. At least in my opinion.

4. Who do you prefer?

5. Mainly just did that because I had no 2nds or 3rds left with the trades I made. Given the 2nd from the Brown deal would be a 4th-5th, just move it there and I'd take that deal, I like Dowd.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 févr. à 19 h 34
Sujet: Ceci Stinks So Bad
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jakobie</b></div><div>so basically 2 guys retained(1 very good player) for a rental, a C+ prospect, and a lottery protected pick? no thanks, Sens pass</div></div>

I mean I don't think that is quite a fair breakdown. You picked up Tarasenko for nothing on a 1 year deal to retain half and deal for a 1st at the deadline, that is quite literally what the trade is. Foegele is just as much a rental as the other two but probably fits better in long-term OTT plans if they want to re-sign him. Lavoie is good. He could play in the top 9 in Ottawa, he just doesn't fit on the Oilers because he can only get in on the bottom line and we have enough guys who do that. Lavoie is a high 2nd rounder (could've been a 1st rounder) 6'4" and produces at almost a ppg in the AHL. I'd say he's better than a C+.

Also I don't get the argument that retention should be seen as this devastating add to a deal when the players are literally on expiring contracts. Might as well use the space.