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jwills2001

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6 juin 2024
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Devils du New Jersey
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Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 15 h 3
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I am with you on Markstrom…it’s especially intriguing since he actually wants to play here.

Here is my case on a couple of the others

Saros -- Trotz has a big decision to make. It’s likely 7-9 years of Saros or it will be Askorov. Long-term, it doesn’t make sense to keep both. Saros has zero trade protection today, so Trotz can hold an open auction for highest bidder and bring down a haul for him. The minute Saros signs an extension, he is likely getting full NMC (that would apply immediately to current contract as well as extension). So after extension, Saros holds all the cards. Trotz has to make a big long-term call pretty soon.

Daccord -- I do not believe he will be a one-hit wonder. Few goalies enjoy playing the net as much as him. Has a very high work ethic. And grew up around the nuts and bolts of goaltending (his dad is one of the best goalie coaches on the planet). An extension probably comes in tandem range too ($3-4m).

Hill -- may be cheapest in trade price to acquire. Vegas needs to move cap to sign their UFAs. And they have shown history of selling guys cheaply to Eastern conference teams (Pacioretty to Carolina in 2022, Smith to Pittsburgh in 2023) in order to move cap. At $5m for one year, I don’t think we would need retention.

Gustavsson -- they have Wallstedt nearing the jump, and MAF for another year. And very specific wants out of the draft. It may also be the last chance to buy a good goalie after a dip in value.</div></div>

Where we are missing each other is still the cap hit for this year, I did this Armchair GM to also add at forward (Henrique, Debrusk, Mercer bridge deal) all of these probably can't happen if we go out and spend 5+ on a goalie. This is why I went with JM, and for the case of Daccord ill emphasize that no matter how much he could be great a one yr sample size has hurt teams in the past and as I am in the boat of cup contention JM is still my pick. You have sold me a little on Gustavsson but I still don't know if it will actually happen so I stick with JM (I just know that can happen). And I am still a hard believer on passing on Saros because of players like Luke, Bahl, and Holtz (depending on how good he is next yr) next year who are looking for their extensions.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 14 h 37
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>There are plenty of goalies in their 20s available. Gustavsson has been linked to NJD…and Russo has said Guerin may use him to upgrade their draft position. Saros may be available, depending on how extension talks go. Trotz and Fitzy are very close (as are Guerin and Fitzy)…so I would imagine they are at least talking. Adin Hill is rumored to be available, although haven’t seen Devils linked to him. Joey Daccord is available. I have seen anything on Vejmelka, but sounds like some speculate that he may be an option. Some Pens fans believe Jarry may be available.

As for Markstrom, I’m totally good with him for $3m x 2 years. I just don’t think the trade pieces align. 10th overall is too much…so we’d either need another piece back or send different piece. The scenario where Calgary sends Markstrom along with Vancouver 1st for #10 is one route (not my first choice, but plausible). Or could be other players included.</div></div>

And I totally agree that they would all be probably better options but I just don't think any of them are gonna happen. Gustavsson is a great choice but I think at the end of the day the wild would rather keep their easy to swallow contract Gustavsson than move him and with fleury being ancient its and he is 26 (hard to move that as a GM with one bad season that improved toward the back end tremendously). I really stand by the fact that Saros won't go anywhere unless things get really bad in Nashville, he is so valuable and will cost again a tremendous amount of money for the foreseeable future with an extension. Hill is 5 mil with no chance of retention unless we go through another party (which could happen), And I like Daccord but Id rather stick with someone thats done the dance before (played 60+ games and more than one season of success). Goalies can play the game for a long time as long as they avoid certain injuries (which JM has). And the knights proved you don't need a Saros or Ullmark to win a cup and idk about you but after being a devils fan for my whole life (22 long years and obviously wasn't really sentient for 03) I'm here for a run, which JM can handle as we have seen it before.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 14 h 12
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 14 h 11
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>1. The Devils aren’t trading 10oa for ANY goalie. Fitzgerald was very specific in those interviews that the 10th pick is available for someone special with term and fits the core demographic (meaning someone in their twenties).

2. The agreed upon Markstrom trade in February was Holtz for a retained Markstrom. Some earlier reports had Vanecek included with a pick to pay for that, but sounds like it was later omitted. And there were a couple of places where there was an unnamed bottom-six winger and mid pick included to cover that. So the final trade was something like Markstrom ($2-3m retained) and Duehr (or similar) for Holtz and 4th. That is probably the base line to work off of going forward. (Hopefully Fitz and Conroy have patched things up).

3. Schmid is waiver exempt, so we can keep Allen and Schmid for 2024-25 (as is Daws). So no reason for Kings trade.

4. DeBrusk is likely to get a little more $$. If we are holding onto Holtz, I’d put Alex at 2LW and sign a Will Carrier type for bottom six (Holtz should be on right side in bottom six role, left side in offensive role).

5. I think the RFA figures are spot on.</div></div>

Again Allen trade is just an option (as it says in trade details) if we are against cap and since I don't really know what Debrusk is asking for I left room in cap space to adjust. I also said in JM details that assets could be used instead (like Holtz) and I am also happy with the Devs paying a premium for a goalie like JM who has two years left and could be 3 mil a yr (not bad imo) If they don't pay up the first thats awesome but I just feel as though it may happen. Markstrom isa good interim goalie and has proved he still has it on multiple occasions. And people saying Ullmark seriously are not realizing how much he is going to cost. Devs have names they have to pay next yr and the yr after. And I challenge people to name a goalie in their 20s who is actually available.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 14 h 9
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>1. The Devils aren’t trading 10oa for ANY goalie. Fitzgerald was very specific in those interviews that the 10th pick is available for someone special with term and fits the core demographic (meaning someone in their twenties).

2. The agreed upon Markstrom trade in February was Holtz for a retained Markstrom. Some earlier reports had Vanecek included with a pick to pay for that, but sounds like it was later omitted. And there were a couple of places where there was an unnamed bottom-six winger and mid pick included to cover that. So the final trade was something like Markstrom ($2-3m retained) and Duehr (or similar) for Holtz and 4th. That is probably the base line to work off of going forward. (Hopefully Fitz and Conroy have patched things up).

3. Schmid is waiver exempt, so we can keep Allen and Schmid for 2024-25 (as is Daws). So no reason for Kings trade.

4. DeBrusk is likely to get a little more $$. If we are holding onto Holtz, I’d put Alex at 2LW and sign a Will Carrier type for bottom six (Holtz should be on right side in bottom six role, left side in offensive role).

5. I think the RFA figures are spot on.</div></div>

Again Allen trade is just an option (as it says in trade details) if we are against cap and since I don't really know what Debrusk is asking for I left room in cap space to adjust. I also said in JM details that assets could be used instead (like Holtz) and I am also happy with the Devs paying a premium for a goalie like JM who has two years left and could be 3 mil a yr (not bad imo) If they don't pay up the first thats awesome but I just feel as though it may happen. Markstrom isa good interim goalie and has proved he still has it on multiple occasions. And people saying Ullmark seriously are not realizing how much he is going to cost. Devs have names they have to pay next yr and the yr after. And I challenge people to name a goalie in their 20s who is actually available.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 13 h 57
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJDevils1317</b></div><div>What do we need all this difference of $700k in cap space for to take a loss man? Goalies get hurt, you'll have a choice of Schmid or Daws if and when that happens....but this makes no sense man.

Just because we have the 10th overall, doesn't mean we have to use that on a 34yr old goalie that has a NMC and can pick where he wants to go. Name ALL the teams that would give up their 2024 1st for Markstrom that even make any sense.</div></div>
Again its more like 2 mil in cap freed, and as I said in the trade details and before Allen trade does not NEED to happen but if we need space cause we could end up being against the cap, I would be happy with it.

Toronto if they clear, Sens (more likely higher end assets with 7th pick and not contenders), Wings, and Kings. Also direct quote from Lebrun "The Flames are getting calls from multiple teams on Markstrom, not just from the Devils... At this point in time, there's still a difference of opinion on the return, on what it should cost the Devils to get Jacob Markstrom out of Calgary and the Flames are willing to be patient in terms of having a team meet their price"
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 13 h 39
Sujet: Leafs solved
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>well better chance Leafs win a cup in 2024 than Utah trade 6th and next years first for marner so the OTT trade wont happen</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gmurrayt</b></div><div>So Utah is giving up 2 firsts including a high end one this year, a retained Crouse, taking on a cap dump, all for one year of Marner? And that is making an unlikely assumption that Marner waives for Utah. Not very realistic.</div></div>

I will defend this trade to a pretty unrealistic level because I do really like it for both sides. Picks 5-10 in this yrs draft are good but more likely than not those players will not live up to Marners talent (which people somehow seem to forget). At his best Marner is fantastic and a place like Utah where he would be the face of the franchise (also I am assuming this is a sign and trade so Marner waives and signs extension) feels like a fit. I also feel as the coyotes/Utah have been a wanting to contend for the playoffs team for the past two years (start or end strong but half of the season they are missing). They want to be a playoff team and they have the outline of a team that could do it, and Keller, Marner, Schmaltz, and Maccelli would be a pretty awesome foursome (id love to see it). And that would in perspective render the next yr 1st as a mid first. They also have enough cap space to buy up the league so Kampf is just filler for a leafs team that need cap. (Again I think Marner is more valuable than other people think I guess). (Also this is all under the belief that Marner WOULD waive to go to Utah, which since I'm not Marner I can say.)
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 13 h 14
Sujet: Dreams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>That is not what Fitzgerald said. He said he would trade 10th overall if an offer blows him away for a player that fits our age demographic and timeline. Not a 34 year old Markstrom.

The flames do not hold the cards. What they hold is a ticking time bomb that’s pissed at their franchise. You wait on a 35 year old goalie and try to play hardball, chances are, he plays like so many other 35 year old goalies have (dog****) and you’re stuck with him.

They backed out in February and were rewarded by Jacob Markstrom posting a 0.876 over his final 15 games.</div></div>

You're acting as though the devils have other options for goalie. They could sign Cam Talbot in free agency with that mindset which would just kill this team. Or overpay for Ullmark, Saros is not gonna be for sale, let's be realistic. And if they pay Gibson I may die.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin à 12 h 59
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 17 h 30
Sujet: Hear me out
Before anyone losses it please hear me out. Carrier will get resigned or at least a sign and trade on a good contract. He is not hitting the open market. The ducks NEED a RHD and carrier is quality, look at how he played in the playoffs and when he gets opportunities in Nashville. He would be a far better piece than fabbro who looks like a flop. And he would slot right in on the right side for the ducks. Glass has been quality before and still has value if they really want to move him (but if not 3C would be good) and the ducks would not get a first on top of it, so a 2nd should be a nice piece on top. Nashville gets a guy like Zegras on good value and add some dynamic scoring on the team (which they need). The Ducks get two solid pieces for low cap hit which give them space for future moves and they are both respectively 25 and 27.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 16 h 32
Sujet: If Brady tkachuk deal were to happen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Again I did not say that. I said:



That's Mercer a 3rd line winger and Casey a meh prospect. Mercer may become a good middle 6 forward eventually but he isn't one now. He did bounce around between 2nd and 3rd line wing but he wasn't even able to earn a spot as 3rd line center over Nosek (and that was with Huala as 2nd line center).

Comparing Casey to Fox is absurd too.</div></div>

Dude, Im not saying they are the same obviously which I said, but you are shutting down him as a player for what reason, his height, do you have anything else? Undersized players exist and thrive at times. He has a history of being successful and is now just having the opportunity to prove his value. Did you know that fox played 3 yrs in college, Casey left after yr 2 so don't even come at me with "fox had a hobey baker yr" that was his jr season they actually had pretty comparable NCAA careers. Im not saying Casey will be nearly as good as fox but you have actually no argument for Casey being a meh prospect besides his height. He is considered a good prospect by most at this point and thats a fact.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 15 h 57
Sujet: Only way it works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Rick Nash was 27 or 28 at time. Vegas had medical clearance and was ready to LTIR him for a year. In a way, his injury status made the trade easier since they were able to put him on LTIR and didn’t have to move Pacioretty until off-season. It was very much constructed like an off-season deal. Eichel was also a center…which carries more value. Both are solid comps for age, contract, production, and team environment.

Nemec won’t get moved. Zero chance. Mercer is possible, but again, it would round the rest of the package down. If you want to talk comps, I will talk comps all day. But recommend you look through the histories of other big trades. I think you will find a similar pattern. There is always an ask for premium pieces, especially by fans. Speculation by media also inflates perceived price. But premium pieces quite simply, never move.

Top-5 picks…maybe once a decade
Top-10 picks…maybe move once every couple of years. Top-30 picks…handful move every year.
Top-60 picks…almost half of them move.

Top-10 prospects…maybe once a decade (unless they aren’t signing).
Top-25 prospects…maybe once a year.
Top-50 prospects…maybe 3-4 per year.
Top 51-100 prospects are basically currency….and they are moved all the time.</div></div>

My bad your right Nash was 29 (June B day) but still coming off the worst season of his career and again an abysmal contract. and yea the injury made it easier to trade eichel cause LTIR but that does not change the fact that buffalo had no leverage which in turn still dropped his value significantly. He was coming off his best season and seen as a perennial prospect. That is exactly why the trade was able to happen. BT is coming off a great season and isn't threatening to sit out like eichel. The only leverage would be if he demanded a trade but that wouldn't matter too much. The only thing it would really do is push the sens to move him while his price is somewhat premium. And thats the whole point of this hypothetical trade BT is a premium piece just like all of those prospects except he has proven it in the NHL for the past 3 seasons which is something any of those devils pieces haven't really had the chance to do to that extent (Maybe Nemec). Also I agree with Nemec not moving Im just looking at this if I was the GM of the sens (I would want something like him). The sens would know that the devs want to win now and thats why they would require those pieces (a bit more than his actual value).
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 15 h 30
Sujet: If Brady tkachuk deal were to happen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Typical Devils fan claiming I said something I did not say. I never said Holtz or Mercer are not good prospects, they just aren't nearly as good as you people pretend they are.

Casey on the other hand would be small for a forward and is tiny for a defenseman. He'll be lucky if he makes it as an NHL regular at all and no just because he's the same height as Quinn Hughes (and 20 lbs lighter) doesn't mean he's the next Hughes.</div></div>

"meh prospects like Mercer and Casey for him" Exactly what you said. And saying Casey would be lucky to make the NHL when he just signed his elc and will be getting ahl mins next yr and proved skill in NCAA. Im not saying these guys are future world beaters but come on. Calgary would be more than happy to have them, maybe just you wouldn't. Look at this like a GM, Mercer is a proven 20+ goal scorer at 22 (thats a pretty great piece to have on a team where your best scorer was Sharangovich (former dev). Also just saying you guys had a NCAA 5'11 defenseman taken in the third round who worked out pretty well (Adam fox enters the chat) so shutting down Casey cause he's 5'10 and second rd pick is hard to say when he kinda proved himself last season at the world jrs and at Mich.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 15 h 1
Sujet: Only way it works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>The Meier deal was essentially Mukhamadullin, Zetterlund, 1st and conditional 1st/2nd (Johansson was cap dump, Okhotiuk was repaying for Johansson, the rest was a balancing out number of contracts since both teams were close to 49/50 and had NCAA draftees that may sign). Sharks had wanted more premium pieces. They asked for Mercer, Fitzy said no. Sharks asked for Holtz, Fitzy said “if Holtz, only Holtz”. So sharks opted for four decent pieces.

It was not much different than, say, the Eichel trade (Tuch, Krebs, 1st, 2nd) in that there was one young player, one prospect, one 1st, one lesser pick). Sure Tuch is better piece than Zetterlund, but Eichel was better than Meier (Although Tuch was coming off down year). Blueprint was still the same. Four good parts. Sabres had been asking for four 1sts (or equivalent…and essentially got 3.5 1st value).

The Rich Nash trade is probably the best comp for Brady, albeit a little on older side. Dubinsky was decent but underperforming roster player, Anisimov was younger player with some promise, Erixon was a highly rated offensive dman prospect who pulled an Adam Fox before Adam Fox) and a 1st round pick. Still similar blueprint…four good parts, none were premium parts. Columbus had been negotiating for months, trying to get youngsters Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan or Chris Kreider…but those guys just weren’t available.

If Brady is moved it’s likely to follow a similar script. Four good parts…but guys like Mercer, Luke and Nemec will not likely be a part of deal. Depending on timing, they could include one useful guy like Marino, one solid prospect or young player like Holtz, a protected 1st round pick and other piece like a conditional pick or boom/bust prospect like Hameenaho or one of the young goalies. Maybe they opt for younger package with Casey in lieu of Marino…or gamble with Gritsyuk instead of Haneenaho. But still similar blueprint.

If it includes Mercer or top-ten pick, it would lessen the other pieces involved. And if it included both, it would already be a historical rarity. Devils wouldn’t be adding much of significance beyond that.</div></div>

Both Eichel and Nash are non comps to this trade. eichel actively refused to play (the surgery) or else he would have costed quite a bit more and Nash was on an abysmal contract and in his 30s. Brady is 24 with 4 yrs on a slightly overvalued contract (imo). And with all of that you nailed it with the eichel package but probably would cost a little more based on the situation. Krebs great prospect B+ to A- at the time, Tuch was a bonafide top 6er and a first. Brady is not threatening to get season ending surgery and refuse to play and he is under contract for 4 yrs. So the package would need pieces like holtz, Casey, mercer, or even nemec (I hate saying that). Could not disagree more
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 14 h 29
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 juin à 13 h 54
Sujet: Only way it works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>How many trades in NHL history have returned a young player of Mercer’s quality and a top-10 pick?

If anything, it will be more pieces without Mercer.

Holtz, Casey, 2025 1st, 3rd kind of thing.</div></div>

Mercer is coming off a down year at Pro3. He has heaps of potential but not the same value as last yr or the yr before. For example the original Meier trade costed around two high quality prospects in Muk and Okho as well as two roster players in zetterlund and Andreas Johnson, and a first. All of this for a very similar player to BT other than his age and contract (he had 1 yr left [which lowers his value]). Thats a haul.. BT is way more valuable than Meier and he has 4 yrs left. So yea mercer and much more would be needed hence the first and Casey. Listen I'm a devs fan too but mercer aint close.