Dawson Mercer is a ? prospect who can play second line minutes right off the bat and get at least 50+ points on the right line. Seamus Casey is a B-B+ prospect who seems near NHL ready and has the benefit of being right handed and offensive minded. The tenth overall pick allows the Sens to pick again within a top ten where picks 4-10 are right about the same in quality and could easliy grab a great prospect. The 4th gives the devils some draft capital which they need while the Sens have 4 fourth rd picks. This deal also gives the Devils enough capital to address goalie while having some light spending money for forward depth.

Yeah no thanks

So if a deal were to happen what's price for BT? If he does want out there is a sure loss in value. This trade is completely hypothetical, I understand that he hasn't expressed any desire to leave Ottawa.

I have no clue why there's so many rumors saying he wants out when the other "sources" are twitter fan pages. Staios said he isn't moving him but I'd have to imagine the asking price would be pretty steep. Tkachuk's 6'4, captain material, built for playoff hockey, 35 goal scorer and plays the game the way not many do. I think it would be something around Nemec, 10th a couple later picks in the next couple drafts and a guy like Palat for money reasons. I think every team would be in on Brady if he was made available but I dont think it makes sense to move him at this point in time

The rumors are heating up after a recent spittin chiclets episode. I know that's the equivalent of getting info from a door knob but it is an interesting idea. I agree with a lot you are saying but I think you are slightly undervaluing a top 10 pick, also I don't think any team in the league should consider that Palat deal, it is truly atrocious value (and I'm a devs fan). I could also see an extra first being needed to make the move go through, but BT is currently 8.5 million for the next four years, and while he is a great player I think the contract is a little overvalued (I know thats hot take). But I feel like we need to see more from him to be worth a top 15 prospect in the NHL in Nemec (and Right handed) along with multiple other 1sts.

Heres how it would really work if you want him

NJ: Brady

Ott: Necas, Holtz, 2024 1st

Your going to say thats a massive overpay by the Devils and you'd be right, but thats the only was any team is realistically getting Brady

Ev

Even if he hypothetically requests a trade? That seems hefty even without a trade request (again I think nemec is a top 15 prospect in the league). (Im also assuming you mean Nemec cause the devils don't own the rights to necas)

There hasn't been any trade request so i'm not going to go off hypotheticals for this. And I will repeat again, its and overpay and I know it, but it doesn't matter that would the price. Yes good catch my phone auto corrected Nemec to Necas

The whole point of this deal would be if BT requests a trade. It obviously wouldn't happen unless he does, thats why this is a hypothetical. The Devils wouldn't dump the house unless they could get a discount, not trade for him when his value is at its peak (4 years left).

Then the devils would be out. Brady doesn't have the leverage his brother has. He is locked up long term, if he wants out fine, but he would need to give a decent size list of where he wants to go or he doesn't go.

But the point is he does not want out.

The price is Nemec and Mercer. Brady is a unicorn with 4 years term.

10th overall plus Mercer would be enough…take out Casey and 4th

It absolutely would not be enough, not even close

Yea hate to say thats not even close

How many trades in NHL history have returned a young player of Mercer’s quality and a top-10 pick?

If anything, it will be more pieces without Mercer.

Holtz, Casey, 2025 1st, 3rd kind of thing.

Mercer is coming off a down year at Pro3. He has heaps of potential but not the same value as last yr or the yr before. For example the original Meier trade costed around two high quality prospects in Muk and Okho as well as two roster players in zetterlund and Andreas Johnson, and a first. All of this for a very similar player to BT other than his age and contract (he had 1 yr left [which lowers his value]). Thats a haul.. BT is way more valuable than Meier and he has 4 yrs left. So yea mercer and much more would be needed hence the first and Casey. Listen I'm a devs fan too but mercer aint close.

The Meier deal was essentially Mukhamadullin, Zetterlund, 1st and conditional 1st/2nd (Johansson was cap dump, Okhotiuk was repaying for Johansson, the rest was a balancing out number of contracts since both teams were close to 49/50 and had NCAA draftees that may sign). Sharks had wanted more premium pieces. They asked for Mercer, Fitzy said no. Sharks asked for Holtz, Fitzy said “if Holtz, only Holtz”. So sharks opted for four decent pieces.

It was not much different than, say, the Eichel trade (Tuch, Krebs, 1st, 2nd) in that there was one young player, one prospect, one 1st, one lesser pick). Sure Tuch is better piece than Zetterlund, but Eichel was better than Meier (Although Tuch was coming off down year). Blueprint was still the same. Four good parts. Sabres had been asking for four 1sts (or equivalent…and essentially got 3.5 1st value).

The Rich Nash trade is probably the best comp for Brady, albeit a little on older side. Dubinsky was decent but underperforming roster player, Anisimov was younger player with some promise, Erixon was a highly rated offensive dman prospect who pulled an Adam Fox before Adam Fox) and a 1st round pick. Still similar blueprint…four good parts, none were premium parts. Columbus had been negotiating for months, trying to get youngsters Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan or Chris Kreider…but those guys just weren’t available.

If Brady is moved it’s likely to follow a similar script. Four good parts…but guys like Mercer, Luke and Nemec will not likely be a part of deal. Depending on timing, they could include one useful guy like Marino, one solid prospect or young player like Holtz, a protected 1st round pick and other piece like a conditional pick or boom/bust prospect like Hameenaho or one of the young goalies. Maybe they opt for younger package with Casey in lieu of Marino…or gamble with Gritsyuk instead of Haneenaho. But still similar blueprint.

If it includes Mercer or top-ten pick, it would lessen the other pieces involved. And if it included both, it would already be a historical rarity. Devils wouldn’t be adding much of significance beyond that.

Both Eichel and Nash are non comps to this trade. eichel actively refused to play (the surgery) or else he would have costed quite a bit more and Nash was on an abysmal contract and in his 30s. Brady is 24 with 4 yrs on a slightly overvalued contract (imo). And with all of that you nailed it with the eichel package but probably would cost a little more based on the situation. Krebs great prospect B+ to A- at the time, Tuch was a bonafide top 6er and a first. Brady is not threatening to get season ending surgery and refuse to play and he is under contract for 4 yrs. So the package would need pieces like holtz, Casey, mercer, or even nemec (I hate saying that). Could not disagree more

Rick Nash was 27 or 28 at time. Vegas had medical clearance and was ready to LTIR him for a year. In a way, his injury status made the trade easier since they were able to put him on LTIR and didn’t have to move Pacioretty until off-season. It was very much constructed like an off-season deal. Eichel was also a center…which carries more value. Both are solid comps for age, contract, production, and team environment.

Nemec won’t get moved. Zero chance. Mercer is possible, but again, it would round the rest of the package down. If you want to talk comps, I will talk comps all day. But recommend you look through the histories of other big trades. I think you will find a similar pattern. There is always an ask for premium pieces, especially by fans. Speculation by media also inflates perceived price. But premium pieces quite simply, never move.

Top-5 picks…maybe once a decade
Top-10 picks…maybe move once every couple of years. Top-30 picks…handful move every year.
Top-60 picks…almost half of them move.

Top-10 prospects…maybe once a decade (unless they aren’t signing).
Top-25 prospects…maybe once a year.
Top-50 prospects…maybe 3-4 per year.
Top 51-100 prospects are basically currency….and they are moved all the time.

My bad your right Nash was 29 (June B day) but still coming off the worst season of his career and again an abysmal contract. and yea the injury made it easier to trade eichel cause LTIR but that does not change the fact that buffalo had no leverage which in turn still dropped his value significantly. He was coming off his best season and seen as a perennial prospect. That is exactly why the trade was able to happen. BT is coming off a great season and isn't threatening to sit out like eichel. The only leverage would be if he demanded a trade but that wouldn't matter too much. The only thing it would really do is push the sens to move him while his price is somewhat premium. And thats the whole point of this hypothetical trade BT is a premium piece just like all of those prospects except he has proven it in the NHL for the past 3 seasons which is something any of those devils pieces haven't really had the chance to do to that extent (Maybe Nemec). Also I agree with Nemec not moving Im just looking at this if I was the GM of the sens (I would want something like him). The sens would know that the devs want to win now and thats why they would require those pieces (a bit more than his actual value).