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TheEarthmaster

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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 21
Forum: Armchair-GM8 nov. 2021 à 11 h 32
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>No but it also doesn't mean that St. Louis should be getting the best player in the deal at a considerable discount, especially if the likelihood of an extension is essentially guaranteed and the player going back to Alberta has already requested a trade from the Blues.

Tkachuk for Kyrou, Tarasenko, and a 1st at least makes more sense. I don't know why Calgary is giving up a pick in this case. I don't have much of a horse in this race but the deal as presented is far too in St. Louis' favour.</div></div>

Not sure a player who is currently producing the same as Tkachuk and a first round pick is a "considerable" discount. I'm not defending the trade as currently constructed but Tarasenko is signed for as long as Tkachuk would be there if Calgary does nothing other than qualify him and he's being similarly productive right now. Tarasenko wants out, sure, but again if Calgary is trading Tkachuk then he wants out too. The Blues need to add in that scenario due to Tarasenko's age- a first round pick, maybe a prospect too. That's reasonable.

But they wouldn't give up Thomas or Kyrou as prospects for five years of Ryan O'Reilly, so there's no reason to believe they'll give them up as productive NHLers for a guy they can probably sign in free agency in a year regardless. Calgary needs to set their sights lower on someone like Kostin or Bolduc. Again, look at the Mark Stone trade, which was a very similar scenario to the one the Flames could find themselves in if Tkachuk is only willing to extend with a few teams. They got an A prospect, a second round pick, and a BC prospect for him. Not a lot for one of the best wingers in the game. If push comes to shove, Calgary has no leverage.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 nov. 2021 à 15 h 57
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. 2021 à 17 h 44
Koskinen definitely isn't going to be "the solution" going forward but his good performance is exactly why goaltending doesn't need to be a big concern and why the big names aren't always the solution either. Marc-Andre Fleury (very rightly) won the Vezina last year, but he looks cooked this year (and even if you want to blame that on Chicago, the year BEFORE he won the Vezina he was so bad the Knights had to bring in and immediately extend Robin Lehner). Florida extended Sergei Bobrovsky for eight years two years ago and is just this season seeing him come anywhere close to living up to it. On the other hand, Freddie Anderson looked cooked too, but he's putting up unreal numbers in Carolina for comparatively little money. One of the best goalies in the league last year was a 25 year old rookie, and we all saw what happened with Jordan Binnington- making 650k- in 2019.

All of this is to say, goaltending is complete nonsense. There are two guys in the league that you might say are night in and night out great- Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy. If you aren't getting one of those guys or don't have one on your roster, you don't need to be giving up anything approaching a first round pick for a goalie and you shouldn't be paying them anymore than 5 million dollars.

Gibson is an interesting case because he used to be insanely good and he's decently young so you never know, but it's not worth the risk. You can get solid enough goaltending from somewhere else. The Oilers don't need to be allocating too much cap space to goaltending when McDavid and Draisaitl will be outscoring the other team on the regular no matter who is net.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 nov. 2021 à 18 h 17
Forum: Armchair-GM5 nov. 2021 à 18 h 7
Forum: Armchair-GM4 nov. 2021 à 10 h 2
Forum: Armchair-GM3 nov. 2021 à 20 h 52
Forum: Armchair-GM1 nov. 2021 à 13 h 50
Forum: Armchair-GM29 oct. 2021 à 19 h 4
Forum: Armchair-GM26 oct. 2021 à 19 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STL9992</b></div><div>Sorry it was 3 in the first game one was called back, and one was 5 on 4 with goalie pulled not 5 on 6. But if Krug isn’t doing better this year why does he have a PPG pace right now. He’s looking like he did with Boston when he put up 50 plus points. He was at least a 40 point player for them every year except 14-15. He seems more comfortable with knowing the guys he’s skating with and his production is going to continue especially on the PP.

As for perunovich stepping in the blues organization pretty much runs the same thing in the minors. Bring up perunovich would be easier for him to get going than someone who spent the last 8 years with a different organization. If you can single out Krug for being irresponsible on every goal that was given up while he was on the ice than I can see what you’re talking about him defensively but so far I have yet to see anything where he was main contributor for goal being scored. Look at yotes game, last goal scored by them he was stuck out there with bortz, kostin, bozak, ROR, the play became a scramble for the puck found it’s way to the slot and was put in, he was covering his guy in the front of the net, the other time he was out there was against the kings Clifford seem to be the one who screwed up his coverage when Krug pressed his guy and that took him up high so Clifford was slow in rotating to cover Krug a spot. The Avs game he was on the ice for their first goal where Thomas was slow to get back and left the Cross ice pass for the one timer across which was played well by our D, Thomas gets back a little quicker he’s able to disrupt the cross ice pass, the last goal he was on the ice for was the 6 on 5 goal. So like I said the eye test must be done because I don’t see how you can say he is playing bad. Go watch him highlight him in every game they’ve played he’s been pretty damn responsible and compare his play to scandella. Stats don’t take other players mistakes into factoring the numbers. Think about how many time the blues pulled their goalie then gave up the empty net, faulk and Krug were killed last year because the blues gave up goals damn near every time when they pulled the goalie.</div></div>

Points aren't everything, especially with defensemen. Tyson Barrie led the league in points last year, but everyone knows that he isn't one of the best defensemen out there because he's also one of the worst defensemen in the league at defending. And that's not to say that there isn't a role for those kinds of players, but you have to use them correctly or you're going to be exposed.

And I think the eye test is a very flawed way of evaluating defensemen. JFresh, one of the best in the game at explaining advanced stats, breaks it down this way in an <a href="https://jfresh.substack.com/p/drew-doughty-is-not-only-no-longer" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">analysis</a> of Drew Doughty:

"Analysts argue that it is impossible to analyze defence using the eye test alone for a variety of reasons. For one thing, oftentimes the things that matter on defence are the things that don’t happen - a defender has his stick blocking a lane, forcing a forward outside; a close gap limits a puck carrier’s options. Most of our casual viewing eyes are drawn to things like body checks, shot blocks, steals, and puck battles in front of the net, but these don’t necessarily add up to “good defence.” What if a player throws checks and blocks shots so much because they’re always stuck in their own end? What if a player steals two pucks a game but is bad positionally?

The core object of defence, we’d argue, is to limit the quantity and quality of chances that your goalie has to face. All those little events and non-events (the poke checks, the battles, the blocked lanes, etc.) are just ways to try to make that happen. Fortunately, we now have access to statistics that not only measure how good a player is at achieving that goal, but isolate that impact from his teammates, opponents, and other context factors."

He goes on to list Expected Goals (xGF/xGA) as one of these stastics, and yes analysis in this way does isolate from the mistakes of individual players. Expected goals models can break up a game into sequences, from when a team gains possession of the puck to when a team loses it, about 250 sequences per game. From there, you can create a mathematical decision tree for each player involved in the sequence to determine an expected goals number- usually a very small decimal number. This is something that is admittedly complicated but is all laid out in an article such as this <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2020/03/26/introducing-offensive-sequences-and-the-hockey-decision-tree/#more-24174" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">this one</a>: It's not just about the actual goals that happened while Krug was on the ice. Obviously that's what matters in the game, but big picture it's what happens in all of these sequences when the other team has possession.

And I'm not saying it's a perfect analysis and in small sample sizes like this Krug's numbers are bound to be volatile, but Krug had very low xGA numbers during his time in Boston (high of 2.22) and that climbed when he was in St Louis (high of 2.54). That might not seem like a lot, but elite shooters can take advantage of that. This all works out if Krug can outperform those numbers with high expected goals for- as you noted, he has a PPG and he is primarily known as an offensive defenseman. He did this often in Boston, with his xGF &gt; xGA during his entire time there. It's been the opposite in St. Louis.

I do think he'll be better than we've seen, but we just haven't seen it yet and we don't need to pretend like we have. We need to adjust accordingly, and shelter his minutes more and allow him to get his game going and then increase accordingly as he does. You mention that Krug and Faulk got burned all the time last year with the goalie pulled, yet you don't think that's indicative of players who are best suited for the second pair routinely playing 20 minutes a night? I think that's pretty obvious. Shelter his minutes, let him cook offensively, and get guys who can handle the defensive assignments and the Blues and Krug will have a lot more success.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 oct. 2021 à 12 h 53
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STL9992</b></div><div>I’m not worried about those goal for stats in the first 4 games, Krug wasn’t brought in for defense he was brought in to produce and be the quarterback for PP. walman is good but perunovich is better than him. Krug will adjust just like faulk did his 2nd year. Defensemen can’t just jump in and produce on new teams it takes a year to learn the system and how the rest of the guys on offense play. Faulk showed great improvement last year and so far Krug has done the same. Also the stats are skewed because most of the goals the blues give up have been late in the third while the other team has goalie pulled. I don’t think corsi adjusts for those situations they call them 5 on 5 sometimes the eye test is still better</div></div>

Tthe Blues have given up exactly one goal at 5v6 this year and yet have given up 6 goals in the third so that "struggling when goalie is pulled" thing isn't true at all. And that illustrates the problem with the eye test right there- you've seen the third period struggles, you've seen a goal at 5v6, and you believe that we just haven't been tight enough defensively when the goalie is pulled. But if you just look at the most basic of basic stats- when goals were scored and how many people were on the ice when it was scored- you would know that isn't true. The Blues have been struggling at 5v5 late in games primarily, so even if Corsi or expected goals are skewed by counting 5v6 goals as even strength that's not where our problem has been. And if Krug's strength is offense as you say (and I agree with, of course) he should not be on the ice at 6v5 anyway.

My point is not that Krug sucks or just can't cut it defensively, nor am I saying that I don't expect him to get better (though I am not sure what you've seen this season to indicate that he has already this year other than we've been winning). I'm just saying if a player is currently struggling- which he is- you don't just give them more responsibility. They have to earn that. He hasn't earned it. Krug was never an all situations player in Boston. For him to be the best he can be, he needs to be treated how we treated Dunn this year- sheltered minutes with a heavy emphasis on getting him in the offensive zone.

Also if it's difficult for defensemen to come into a new team and adjust why do you want to give Perunovich second pair (if not more) minutes right away? And I agree that Perunovich is better than Walman, but Walman is better than Bortuzzo and Mikkola so he's not the guy you want to get rid of. If you want to bring up Perunovich, Mikkola or Bortuzzo are the ones you want to jettison.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 oct. 2021 à 20 h 0
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STL9992</b></div><div>If scandella was playing like he did with the wild I’d be all for it but he hasn’t been that player in a long time and the blues lack speed on the back end.</div></div>

He hasn't been the top four stalwart he was brought in to be, but he definitely hasn't been our biggest liability. You said we could just give more more minutes to Krug but Krug has not been good at all to start the season (3.88 xGA/60, truly abysmal). He needs to be much more sheltered than he has been, which is not what you want from a guy making 6.5 million but that bed is pretty much made. The reason Scandella is a popular candidate to move is not because his play has warranted it (well, maybe last season but not this season so far, small sample size and all that), but because we need someone to handle those minutes. If Scandella keeps this up, good enough- it's a massive improvement over last year, even if it's short of his Wild days- but I don't think you can lose him now and replace him with Perunovich. They need someone more steady and proven up there.

I think the Blues are trying to make Walman that guy. He's been getting lots of reps with Parayko and has an extremely impressive 1.6 xGA/60. If Walman proves he can handle those minutes more effectively than Scandella, then Scandella becomes a bit of a luxury. And with his solid play this year coupled with the explosion of defenseman contracts (Derek Forbort makes almost as much as him now???) he might actually fetch a good return. But patience is key there, because our weak spot has still been the defense and you don't want to make it weaker by losing someone who is actually contributing, which Scandella currently is.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 oct. 2021 à 19 h 24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STL9992</b></div><div>Walman has played good and I think he’s the best return for guys that the blues would move, bortz is too much of a locker room guy to move. He knows his role and plays it well. He is the guy Clifford was supposed to be for toughness. I think perunovich is ready tho it’s hard to see a guy who won the hobey baker award be in the minors when every other team has had great success bringing them up as soon as they could.</div></div>

Well if he was the guy Clifford was supposed to be why did we need Clifford? Bortuzzo's been on this team for years. I get that he's a good locker room guy, but Ryan Reaves was a good locker room guy too. So was Chris Thorburn. It doesn't mean they're untouchable. Bortuzzo has never played a full season with the Blues in 8 seasons with us. Not because he's been hurt, but because he's a seventh defenseman. Those players can't be locked in. We have a lot of good character on this team. At the end of the day, the better players have to play. Perunovich is ready, like you said, for a bigger role and to be on an NHL team. But Parayko and Scandella are both playing 20+ minutes a night right now. I don't think you can just gift that to Perunovich. Bortuzzo is playing fourteen, that you can give to Perunovich.

If it's that unpalatable though, just send down Mikkola and bring Perunovich up that way. Mikkola isn't doing much and Bortuzzo can still provide his locker room presence as the 7th defenseman. Either way, our defense needs a shot in the arm and Perunovich is ready.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 oct. 2021 à 19 h 11
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