7 jun 2018
Blues de St-Louis
Messages dans les forums
Messages par jour
Sujets de discussion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ek_65</b></div><div>Faulk has that NTC though, wonder if he considers waiving it if he feels he's being blocked by Parayoko and Pietrangelo next year. Never understood the move but it seemed like they were thinking Pietrangelo wasn't gonna be there long term. Faulk signs the extension immediately, and has a rough season. Pietrangelo remans unsigned, has a fantastic season. Agreed, Blues need to find a way to keep him.</div></div>
Yeah, it's tough. I think it was partly insurance against Pietrangelo leaving and partially just a general upgrading of the defense with Edmundson, Bouwmeester, and Gunnarsson more or less all on their way out. I think the only way we get a move out of him is if he gets claimed by Seattle. We might have to give Seattle a bit to even take him.
I think anyone who knew anything about Justin Faulk from his Carolina days should have been able to see that he wasn't going to be worth that contract, but here we are. He's got a reputation as an offensive defenseman from his years of being on a bad team with no skilled forwards, where he took a lot of shots from way out and a comparatively very few went in. If Parayko shot at the rate Faulk shoots, he'd have like twenty five goals. Unfortunately, a guy who doesn't really have that great of an offensive sense taking that many shots from far out on a good team is just giving up possession a lot at best, at worst taking away shots from forwards who are more skilled offensively and are also closer to the net. Not a surprise that as soon as Carolina gets good they don't need him anymore. He's a third pairing defenseman on any good team. That's where he's played his best hockey for us this year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>well all i can say is this good luck with him cause if he ages poorly as most defense do after 30 that contract could end up being a handicap. Most cup teams who try and keep the core together have learned keeping the the star players is not a good idea for long term success. Sure the blues are strong but with that aging core how long will that last who knows.
As for the 3 offers that was just the short form it was on one of the hockey night in Canada talks where discussed his party receiving 3 offers from armstrong which he did not agree to.</div></div>
The Blues I think are in a similar position as Philly where they basically have two cores though. We've got an "older" core of Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko, Perron, Pietrangelo, O'Reilly as well as a younger core of Thomas, Dunn, Parayko, Kyrou, Sanford, and Binnington. Could even throw guys like Blais, Kostin, and Perunovich in there though I think they've still got a lot to prove yet. Obviously you can't keep all of those guys long term, but the Blues are set for a long time to stay competitive. But, certain guys you just got to keep even if they're older, and your defenseman who averages 24 minutes a night is one of them.
See, you say that a lot of defenseman age poorly, and that's true, but the elite ones who rely on skill usually do not. Shea Weber just had an excellent year at 34, Mark Giordano won the Norris last year at 35, Ryan Suter was three points off his career high at 35 when the season stopped. Those guys are all skills based, like Pietrangelo. If Pietrangelo is good for another five years, that's fine, because our team might not even be cup contenders in five years.
Based on his projections, I'm pretty comfortable keeping Pietrangelo long term, and I'm usually a pretty obstinate "do not sign anyone over thirty" guy
<img class="for_img" src="https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2019/12/06023553/Screen-Shot-2019-12-05-at-10.41.26-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2019-12-05-at-10.41.26-PM.png">
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div><a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/contract-talks-picking-blues-captain-pietrangelo/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/contract-talks-picking-blues-captain-pietrangelo/</a>
basically they wanted to pay pitrangelo what Oliver Ekman-Larsson is making but talks slowed down by oct, 30. pitrangelo isnt interested in that type of money hes waiting for the end of the season to get as much as he can. If karlsson and doughty can get that money why cant I. The predators got lucky because Josi signed on a discount as he could have commanded way more. We will see what happens in the summer but if pitrangelo wanted to stay a blue he would have signed already. He is probably going to explore the UFA market as there are probably a lot of teams interested in him and willing to spend.</div></div>
That doesn't say anything about the "three times the Blues offered and he rejected all three offers" thing that you said. All it says is they want OEK money, and he wants more than that, which is non-news, like of course he wants more than they want to give him, that's why negotiations exist. Pietrangelo has never been held in the esteem that Doughty or Karlsson have, he's never won a Norris, he's never single-handedly dragged a team to the postseason like Karlsson did with Ottawa, and he's older than either of those guys were when they signed their contracts. There's very little precedent for him to receive a Doughty or Karlsson level contract even if he goes UFA. And also, those contracts are bad! If that's what he really wants than yeah totally let him walk. But, I think there'a actually very few teams that have the space to offer him that level of contract anyway. Everyone is going to be under the gun for the cap this year. The only teams that do have the space are teams that are bad- the Ducks, the Sens, the Devils. And the Predators did not get Josi on a discount, they just paid him for eight years instead of the seven he would have gotten on any other team. 9mil x 8 years = 10.3mil x 7 years on any other team. That's why those guys get more as UFAs, they don't really get more, it's just contract structure.
Pietrangelo not signing yet I don't think is indicative of much, Armstrong has a reputation for playing hardball (which is kinda weird, considering how many bleh contracts he's given out, but that's what the player agent poll said) and so does Newport Sports. They hold out as long as they can to see if the other will blink first, because we're talking about a ton of money here, the biggest contract on the Blues. But I think at the end of the day, what's the motivation for him to leave? You might say money, but it's the same thing with Josi, the Blues can offer him a lower cap hit but have an extra year, so they can offer him pretty much as much money in general (and allow him to play longer) as any other team unless someone offers him Doughty or Karlsson level money, which, is really only what, probably seven million more total, in the grand scheme of things? I mean, that's a lot of money, but not that much when we're talking about an 70 million contract. He's the captain on a team set to contend for the cup for a long time. He married a St. Louis girl. What can he really get somewhere else that he can't get here?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>He has carried that team for years and has one of the best sv and gaa of current nhl goalies in 2020. He was the starter only till binnington came up. The team has been doing great with both so why risk it. Many teams who have solid goaltending from the main and backup often have great success in the playoffs. the blues have already tried to sign pitrangelo 3 times and hes rejected all 3 offers. He wants a massive payday (possibly doughty money) and being 30 there is a risk his production drops as he gets older or acquires injuries due to his age.</div></div>
I'm sorry, what Blues team did you watch when Allen was the starter? Carried that team for years? The last two years that Allen was the starter (16-17, 17-18), I would say we were good *in spite* of him, not because of him. We missed the playoffs one of those years. Binnington was a career AHL goalie, you don't give a guy like that a shot unless your starter is absolutely terrible, which Allen was last year. Allen's been great this year but his workload has been light. I think he's good enough to be a starter somewhere but it's not here, and you can't justify paying paying starter money to a backup goalie in a cap league. You have to move on, especially with the cap probably not rising or maybe even going down this year. Solid goaltenders are available for much cheaper than him.
Do you have a source for any of that Pietrangelo info? I doubt it because nothing that specific has come out about their negotiations.
Pietrangelo's long term projections are very favorable since he's a skill player like Weber or Thornton and doesn't rely on his physicality (like Doughty) or footspeed (like Karlsson), both of which can diminish with time, in order to play his game. The analytics guru at the Athletic recommended an eight year contract, and the advanced stats guys are always the one saying not to give big money to guys that age.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Faulk has a NTC so you may not be able to trade him... that's why I suggested a buyout. The goal of this post was to make a team that gives them the highest chance of winning the cup which I think they have by signing Krug and Hoffman for a 1st.</div></div>
I understand Faulk's contract, and yes the NTC makes things difficult but I don't know that paying him two thirds of his contract over fourteen years is a better solution, even if that doesn't count against the cap. The Blues are a team that, historically, does not make very much money and yet still spend to the cap every year, meaning I doubt we can afford that buyout money in addition to affording the rest of the roster. Armstrong is also historically reluctant to buy people out. He's got a NTC but I guess that comes down to comfortability vs competitiveness right? If he's fine with having a third pairing role here, which is what he will have if Pietrangelo stays, then the Blues are in a tight spot. But if he is a stereotypical competitive hockey player, wouldn't he want to have a bigger role than that? I think if the right trade came along he might be receptive to leaving.
I disagree that signing Krug and Hoffman gives us a better chance to win the cup, because this team would have to win the cup 2020-2021 year and then we would have to immediately starting hemorrhaging talent (which would then decrease our chances of winning the cup). After next year, Thomas, Kyrou, Schwartz, Sanford, Barbashev, Blais and Binnington are all up, with Dunn and Parayko the following year (based on the contract you've given Dunn). Those guys are all huge parts of our team, most of them are young, and a good chunk (Thomas, Binnington, Dunn, Parayko, and Schwartz especially, maybe Sanford and Kyrou too if they continue to develop) will be due a big raise because they have played extraordinarily well. We probably can't keep them all already, but we can keep even fewer of them if we've got a lot of money tied up in Krug and Hoffman.
Krug and Hoffman are good players, but I want to avoid falling into the Blackhawks trap of paying a lot of money to older guys and then being forced to give away Artemi Panarin and Teuvo Teravainen for very little in return, which also forced their cup window to close sooner than it maybe could have. We know that our young guys can handle the grind and can win a cup. Since they're still young, why not stick with them until they become too expensive to keep, rather than forcing them out prematurely? That keeps us competitive for longer and would thus increase our overall chances of winning a cup.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Look at that right wing.... it's a choice between him and Kostin.</div></div>
It's not, but even if it was Kostin should absolutely go first. He only recently became pretty good at the AHL level. Kyrou has been an elite talent at every level he's played at except the NHL so far, and he hasn't exactly been bad there either. Why rush Kostin into a third line wing position when we've got someone who can for sure play there already?
But, yes, as <a href="/users/A_K" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@A_K</a> has said, Kostin can play left (he's actually left handed so that would make more sense- for some reason it seems like a lot of Russian players like Tarasenko, Kucherov, Panarin play their off hand). Perron has also played a lot of left. Blais came up as a righty and converted to left. Schenn meanwhile was on the right of O'Reilly for awhile this season. Handedness isn't as big of a deal in forwards as it is in defensemen, it becomes a problem when they can't stick on a consistent side (an issue I think we're going to have with Blais if he doesn't get to settle down in a spot).
It's also a long term play though- we're losing at least two forwards after next year (Steen and Bozak), maybe Schwartz as well if he wants a lot of money and an additional roster player in the expansion draft (who is hopefully named Justin Faulk but could be Perron or Sanford). Having Kyrou around makes losing those guys more manageable and all that roster turnover gives him a lot of places to stick.
An ideal lineup after next year I think would look like:
If you can retain Schwartz he can mix in the top nine, probably on Schenn's line somewhere, shift Blais or Kostin down and take MacEachern out, but that's a very good forward core. So just make it work for next year. Kostin spending some more time in the AHL probably isn't the worst thing, but also MacEachern doesn't need to be an everyday player (even though I think he's very good) so there's a fourth line spot open too if you have to have him the NHL. Looking at how Berube managed Thomas and Kyrou, Kostin will probably alternate in and out of the lineup anyway his rookie season.
I share your LHD concern, but that would be mitigated a lot by re-signing Pietrangelo (who can carry a lesser partner on the left if needed), signing Perunovich and having Mikkola and Walman to a lesser extent take the next steps. As a last resort, good veteran LHD are also decently cheap (cheaper than losing a player like Kyrou) and easy to find. Look at Scandella and Gunnarsson. And again, with the expansion draft and having Pietrangelo, Parayko and Dunn, Cholowski would almost certainly be exposed and if he's taken, was one year of him worth the career Detroit probably gets out of Kyrou? Maybe, if we win another cup, but nothing's guaranteed there and you gotta balance present and future to stay competitive long term.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Yeah, it's rough being the defending Cup champs/West leaders, especially when since these pairings were created we're only 9-2 (1.91 GAA, 26.5 SOGA per game, best Corsi rate in the league, +12 at 5v5, 22 even strength points from D-men, including nine goals). AAAAGH (shakes fists to the heavens) If only our defensive capabilities (5th best GA per game, 4th fewest SOGa per game) were better!!!
No, seriously, how are our D pairings ouch in any way? And dude, Scandella is with Parayko. Has been since arriving, will remain to be.</div></div>
Scandella-Parayko is good, but Dunn should be with Pietrangelo and Faulk has no business being above the third pairing on this team. I don't mind Gunnarsson with Pietrangelo in general and the D pairs are somewhat fluid in games anyway, so Gunnarsson and Dunn can split a little bit, but I'm tired of sheltering our best LHD while putting the good but injury prone guy against tougher competition.
That also plays the best to everyone's strengths, analytically speaking. Dunn and Pietrangelo start every O-zone faceoff, Scandella and Parayko every D-zone faceoff, third pairing fills in when needed.
This is all moot anyway though because there will be no playoffs this year.
I'd rather just keep Bozak and Steen at their current contracts instead of paying someone else to buy them out. That won't let us pay Hoffman or Krug, but the only UFA I want to be signing to any term and big money is Alex Pietrangelo.
Everyone is saying "Oh, we can't buyout Faulk before he's played a game on his new contract!" and while the optics of that aren't great for Blues management and a buyout, even a compliance one, for a contract that long probably doesn't make much sense anyway, the Blues need to be exploring any scenario they can to move Faulk's contract (assuming Pietrangelo re-signs) just from the simple reality that we cannot overpay a guy $6.5million to play on our third pairing. I'm sorry to all the people who think he's good, but he is at best the fourth-best defenseman on this team, and could very soon be fifth or six on that list. Faulk on the left hasn't worked. It's not a personal attack on him, there are tons of NHL teams who could find room for him considering how rare RHD are, but it's a cap league and just like we can't pay Jake Allen $4.5 million to play backup goalie, even though he's been elite, we can't play Faulk $6.5 million if he can't outplay Parayko or Pietrangelo and crack the lineup higher.
Everyone's picking apart the Toronto trade but what is this obsession, not just with the poster but across a lot of Blues fans, with getting players that "fit Berube's style"? We won a cup with these players, what more style is there to fit? I'm not saying keep everyone you won the cup with, obviously, but we don't need to make roster changes just for the sake of making roster changes, which is what is happening with that Columbus trade from my perspective. Not to mention it makes very little sense- both of the Columbus players are younger and (marginally) better than the two we'd be sending, why does Columbus add the pick? Why does Anderson take a paycut from his last contract when he's an RFA? There's little precedent for that, even if the player has regressed (look at the contract Ceci got this summer). I obviously don't hate the idea of picking up younger and better players in general but given our cap situation I'd rather just take Sanford for another year since he's already signed and replace Bozak's spot with someone internally- Kyrou, Kostin and Blais are all trying to consistently crack the lineup.
Good coaches fit the style to the players, not the other way around.