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TheEarthmaster

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Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 14 h 9
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>give or take a 2nd potentially becomes a 1st, zetterlund, and a 3.4 mill cap dump being taken.

Yes that is a significant difference in trade value.</div></div>

It becomes significant if that 2nd becomes a first. I'll admit I forgot about the conditions there, though it's not looking particularly likely that that's going to hit. A late 2nd is not as valuable as everyone seems to think they are. Zetterlund to me is inconsequential, he's a young-but-not-that-young NHL body who played well-but-not-that-well on a team where everyone was playing well. And that cap hit removal was crucial for the devils to make this trade work at all.

I think Meier's insanely good, I think San Jose should have gotten more. I think it was not a good trade return for them and my feeling on Buchnevich fetching more in a trade is pretty much entirely thinking that trade was underwhelming for San Jose and because Buchnevich offers certain advantages that teams up against the cap would find valuable (advantages Meier- a better player- did not offer)
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 14 h 6
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hagel can return that because were guaranteed 4 years dirt cheap even if they qualify him, and will end up getting 11 at a 5.1 mill AAV. Hagel, even if you view him as just a 6 million dollar player (I view him around 7.5), generates 13.5 million dollars over that 3 years+ the RFA control
Meier as a 10 million dollar player generates 19.1 million dollars in excess value over the term
Buch even if you view him as a 10 million dollar player (which I don't) generates just 14.2 mill in excess value in 2 years of control 50% retained.</div></div>

This is a gross mischaracterization of how the cap work. You can't average out his cap hit between two different contracts. And again, they're in it to win now

Also I think that Meier would be a 10 million dollar player had he been 26 year old UFA in a 90 million cap environment, and I think Buchnevich would be a slightly-less-but-probably-not-as-much-as-you-think player if he was 26 and hitting UFA in a 90 million cap environment (instead of 30 like he's going to be). There's a good chance his next contract is 8million regardless.

Obviously no one is paying a 30 year old 10 million bucks. The ages are different, so the contracts that they're going to get are not going to be comparable.

But again the years of below market cost certainty are what you're paying for. Meier had zero years of below market cost certainty for the Devils to take advantage of. Buchnevich, hypothetically, will have one. Hagel had two. I see the price for Buchnevich as being somewhere in between Meier and Hagel (a late1st, and a B+/A- prospect plus a bunch of stuff that's not really important depending on how you feel about Zetterlund, and 2 late 1sts plus 2 B prospects) because his upside contains elements of both trades.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 13 h 53
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The devils got meier for 1 playoff run at 500k (because they dumped the johnsson contract), and then 8 more years of term on him</div></div>

They got him for 2 months and 1 playoff run, and then had to pay him 70 million dollars to keep him around for the next 8 years.

Versus you get him for 2 months and 1 playoff year, then an additional entire regular season at 3 million, plus another playoff run, before you have to even think about paying him any more money. That gives you more cap space than Meier is giving the Devils this season to make additional moves. That's valuable for teams that are capped out.

Because San Jose didn't trade Meier with that extension, they didn't get compensated for the 8 years of term. They got compensated for New Jersey getting the first opportunity to extend him, an opportunity that was effectively neutralized by Meier's high QO and proximity to UFA. That's why the return (once you factor in the cost to dump Johnsson) was basically no more than a single year rental- a 1st and a good prospect. The Blues would not be in that position- Buchnevich is signed, you have to compesate them for that extra year of term.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 13 h 43
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>It comes down to this. RFA prices are cheaper than UFA prices because of the market and how teams refuse to make offer sheets.

If buch is worth all this, surely his UFA deal will be 10+ million</div></div>

Buch is worth this because you are getting him for two playoff runs at 3million bucks. They were only getting Meier for one of those, and not a full regular season during their contention window, and then they had to negotiate a 70 million dollar extension with him. I do not understand what you're not getting about this. No one is saying a 30 year old is worth 10million bucks just like no one was saying that because Hagel got 2 first and 2 B prospects that he was worth 10 million bucks.

A hypothetical extension, his UFA/RFA status, that is a nightcap on the main couse which is a top line player at a ridiculous price for two playoff runs. Teams that would be acquiring him are in it to win now.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 13 h 39
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The meier trade was the top of the market.

Buchnevich isn't anything special on the PP.</div></div>

You're the one saying he's basically the same player except he gets power play time now. If his power play stuff isn't that good idk why you're bringing it up. Pick a lane. If his pp isn't that good, then he's just a really productive 5v5 player.

And again, just because Meier was the top of the market doesn't mean that the Sharks got a good return. A 1st round pick, NJs like 6th best prospect and a bunch of stuff no one cares about. I think in a more robust market Buchnevich could fetch more than that. The market for Meier wasn't very robust for all the reasons I laid out that you ignored.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 13 h 30
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hagel cost 1.5 and had RFA control, upside, and then they got him on an 8 year deal because of that RFA control.

You're simply underestimating how much RFA control is worth in today's NHL.</div></div>

I completely disagree, I think you're overestimating it. We've seen multiple players- including Meier himself- use the nuances of their RFA status to push their preferred destination. Debrincat, Tkachuk, Dubois as well. The Sharks had the same control, but they hemmed and hawed about possibly re-signing him all season until Meier finally said he wouldn't sign. Being an RFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to stay just like being a UFA doesn't magically mean you're absolutely going to leave.

Tampa didn't trade for Hagel because they were excited to get him on a 8 year deal. They traded for Hagel because they wanted a middle six player with top six potential making 1.5 million for multiple playoff runs. That is what is being offered in a Buchnevich trade as well- multiple playoff runs with a player on a significant discount. Also they extended him a year early, so his RFA status didn't even factor in.

Buchnevich is older and he isn't signed for as long, but he's also a better player than Hagel was then. There will be risk associated with extending him at age 30 but the contending team will be the first one to have an opportunity make an offer to him, just like Hagel. Until then they can get a PPG player that can be used in all situations for less than 3 million, and for teams in win now mode that's all that really matters here.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 9 h 51
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Oh are we pretending it's 2+ years ago? And that every awful trade sets the market forever? How on Earth is what the Blues paid for him even infinitesimally relevant here?

Buch is easily morr valuable than Toffoli right now. Also irrelevant.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I don't know what to tell you.
We saw what Buchnevich RFA rights went for. We saw the contract he got. His production 5v5 is virtually identical to what it was before then
The UFA market, especially on wingers has a peak, and it isn't all that high.

Meier had a large bidding war because his skillset is valued leaguewide. He got a contract that reflects that.

Just look at what Toffoli went for both times.</div></div>

Yeah the disconnect here really seems to be that one person believes previous trade values are unimpeachable. Buchnevich RFA trades and Meier trades were both not particularly good for the team giving them away, but there were extraneous circumstances that contributed to that in both cases (I outlined why I think the Sharks didn't do very well in the Meier trade in my previous comment. Buchnevich obviously I think the GM didn't do a good enough job to drive up prices but in Drury's defense his team was capped out and Buchnevich was due an unknown muli-million dollar contract with a short resume coming off a year with no fans in the building where most teams were unwilling to spend real dollars).

These previous trade values can only be taken if the context is the same, and I think the circumstances of a hypothetical Buchnevich trade are much different than when he got traded the first time and when Meier was traded to the Devils.

Also this whole "his production at 5v5 is the basically the same" thing, like I get what you're saying but that's not how player values work, even stripping the financial context I just mentioned of that trade. Being a consistent 5v5 player for 5 years is more valuable than being one for 2 years, obviously. Also a player being good on the power play is worth something, GMs aren't just going to pretend that doesn't exist just because it didn't when he was in New York. He got an opportunity in St. Louis and ran with it. He's been a consistent, top line presence in all situations in St. Louis and you could get him for 3 million this year and next year. That should be worth a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 9 h 28
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I disagree on that.

Meier&gt;Buch quite clearly imo.

meier was a rental + 8 years extension
buch is a rental +rental

Meier at 8x8.8 likely has more value around the league than 1 year of Buch at 2.9</div></div>

Not arguing that Buchnevich is better than Meier, and I said as much in my original comment.

The Devils didn't trade for Meier with an extension though, so you can't act like that factored super heavily into the trade return. The Devils had cap space and probably felt good about getting him signed long term, but at the time of his trade he had a 10million QO and was one year away from free agency, the Devils did not know what that next contract was going to look like when they traded for him.

Also then you have to fit a nearly 9 million dollar salary in immediately the following year, which not many contending teams can do (the Devils obviously could). A top line player making 2.9 million is much easier to fit in and teams are starting to wise up to that strategy. Look at the Lightning, paying a premium to have Coleman and Hagel (worse players than Buchnevich) signed for multiple playoff runs at reasonable rates.

It's not about Buchnevich being better than Meier, it's about how many teams can fit him into the lineup and for how long. I said I don't think the Sharks did particularly well in the Meier trade, and I think the reason for that is 1) they knew they had to trade him, 2) the prospect of fitting a 9million dollar player in the next season was a non starter for most teams, and 3) Meier had a lot of control over the situation given his high QO and proximity to free agency. None of those things apply to Buchnevich and so even though he's a slightly lesser (but still top-line) player I think he should return better than Meier.
Forum: Fauteuil - DG17 nov. à 15 h 26
Sujet: The most underrated trades of the offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ht42</b></div><div>Its more 36% of the total of Petry contract (Pittsburg rentain 25 % of the Petry contract).

Petry contract : $ 6 500 000

PIT : $ 1 562 500
MTL : $ 2 343 750
DET : $ 2 343 750</div></div>



<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Detroit has more cap space with no LITR. But you missed the point that Montreal is paying just as much for Detroit's mistake as Detroit is.</div></div>

You guys are both looking at cap space which isn't really an factor for either of these teams at the moment. Gotta look at real dollars- by taking on a bit of Petry (3.47 million, spread over two years), Lindstrom for one year (950k), whatever Legace is making (league min or less?) and dumping Pitlick and Hoffman (6.1 million combined), they saved a bit over a million bucks. They also received a 2nd and a 4th for their troubles. That's a good trade (even if a million bucks to Montreal is probably a rounding error).

Is it "the most underrated trade"? Lindstrom or Legace would have to turn out to really be something I think for me to go that far. But can't deny it's good business for them to save a little money and get a few extra draft picks. Smart move for a rebuilding team.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 nov. à 17 h 0
Sujet: Rakell thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>Keep Josh Anderson outcho mother-effin mouf! lol But seriously, Josh Anderson is a terrible hockey player.

I know there's growing frustration with Rakell, but the fact is he's still a big part of the success of that 2nd line. The goals will come. Obviously his final totals won't be high, but the goals will come. His skill and ability to push pace, transition and generate scoring chances is above and beyond anyone mentioned in the description.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>Moving Rakell for any of the names that you mentioned would be a mistake. 60 points last year. His first few games were tough, but he’s clearly been playing hard as of late. He’ll get it going offensively.</div></div>

Underlying numbers are pretty strong too, he's just snakebitten. Not something I would worry about.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pens1991</b></div><div> the noise will grow if there continues to be a lack of scoring and with that Dubas wouldn't hesitate to make a move.
</div></div>

There is maybe no GM in the league that has more experience tuning out outside noise than Kyle Dubas lol. How many years was he in Toronto and never broke up that core despite people constantly screaming at him to do it? He's aggressive in certain ways but he would have to really hate what Rakell is bringing to try and ship out that contract despite the positive signs everywhere except the scoresheet.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 nov. à 14 h 48
Sujet: what would this cost the leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Why's that exactly?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>xercuses</b></div><div>He really shouldnt</div></div>

I mean everyone should be available for a price. Connor McDavid should be available for a price. The price can be high (and should be for Parayko), but you never know, someone might meet it.

Also I'm just not super thrilled about what the next six years of the contract are going to look like, especially if the Blues are middling or worse for the best remaining part of Parayko's career. The Blues aren't a top 10 team this year and probably won't be for a couple years baring some dramatic moves. It'd be hard to replace his minutes in the short term, but it'll be harder to replace his minutes if he's not up to them at 34/35 anymore and the Blues are a top 10 team again. To me, if the Blues are "retooling", that's the kind of player you would want to look at retooling out.

Course it's all moot because he probably doesn't want to go anywhere and he holds all the cards but if I'm Doug Armstrong idk why you wouldn't listen on him. At this point I'm not sure why we feel any sort of attachment to any of our defensemen over 25.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 nov. à 12 h 55
Sujet: Is binnington the answer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>Are you out of your mind? Binnington is a mid AF. You should be happy anyone wants to give anything for him. There's a 1st and two 2nds in the deal.

The reality is this trade is dumb as a whole because it's basically a lateral move, and a very EDM trade to make. There's not much separating Binnington and Campbell at this point in their careers.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SociallyHawkward</b></div><div>I'd honestly take the goalie with slightly worse numbers over the one who throws a hissy fit every time he let's up a soft goal.</div></div>

You guys are talking about their career performances. Edmonton doesn't care about that. Edmonton doesn't care that Binnington was bad last season, or that Campbell was good a couple years ago and that's brought their current numbers pretty close to each other. Edmonton cannot afford to miss the playoffs. They need good goaltending *right now*. Binnington is giving that. Campbell is on waivers. That's where the conversation starts for teams in win now mode.

I understand why one would think it probably won't last with Binnington (I agree) and I certainly don't want to be involved in defending that contract or his general demeanor but to act like swapping Binnington for Campbell wouldn't be a dramatic shot in the arm for a floundering team right now based on how they've played *right now*...I just can't relate to that. Especially when you're basing it off of the career averages of players known to be volatile.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. à 13 h 23
Sujet: 10 Game Progress Report
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>IMO the major problem with Hayes is that there are 2 more years after this one. Even if he can find enough game to excel in the 3C role, is he going to be yet another immovable, declining asset holding the team back until 2027? Because the other "freebie" acquisitions are gone after this year (fingers crossed Army doesn't start another contract extension party). They aren't here and ready now, but Snuggerud, Dean, Bolduc all need to get NHL time in the next couple years and they have Dvorsky and Stenberg that should be ready soon after.

I tend to agree with you on Kyrou - it scares me how many people think he needs to be a Selke guy to be valuable - although I think there is a happy medium where he backchecks without sacrificing all of his offense solely because of his skating. He can get himself to a lot of spots on the ice to disrupt things and still get up the ice on attack. I think it comes down to the mental side, knowing where to be, where the puck is going, etc. - and maybe this is a dissenting opinion but I do think those type of things are teachable.</div></div>

They Hayes thing would worry me more if I thought the Blues were contenders now. If they were a contending team that needed a 3C and they got Hayes and this is how he was performing, that would be concerning. But the Blues aren't that good, and unless Armstrong gets aggressive they're probably not going to be that good for a few years. I think having a veteran center around to soak up some minutes, and shelter the young guys for a few years isn't so bad. Although, like I said, I thought Schenn kinda filled that role already so what can you do.

But as far as "holding the Blues back", I've got five or six contracts I'm more worried about before his, frankly. But certainly if he plays like this through the end of the year though, I won't be as nonchalant about it.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. à 12 h 58
Sujet: We need the next McAvoy Seider or young Jones
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Im not saying tanking but we need to take a RD with one of the 2 1sts maybe even both picks</div></div>

A RHD that you draft is probably going to take a year or two to develop. Maybe even longer- the Devils took Nemec two drafts ago #2 overall and he has yet to play a game for them. Defense in general takes a long time to develop into an impactful NHL player unless they are elite top of the line talent. Are the Sens willing to wait 2-3 years for a top 4 RHD they draft to develop? They need that guy now.

What you need right now very well may change in two years. Frankly for the Sens it probably needs to change sooner than that. If a RHD is the best player available in both positions then draft him. But otherwise, they should take the best player.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. à 12 h 44
Sujet: 10 Game Progress Report
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Nah, I'm not on the ledge, I'm just calling it how I see it. They are extremely lucky to get 11 points from the first 10 games. They get outshot every night and can't score goals. They can't defend even when the entire gameplan is to play defense. One (really good) game vs MTL and the other vs NJ on a travel-heavy back to back with no Hughes or Hischier isn't enough to convince me they're good. On to the next 10 games.</div></div>

yeah them winning those two games were fun to watch but I don't see how you could draw many conclusions from it, unless you just want to say it was a confidence boost. Even with their flaws the Blues should have beaten both of those teams once Hughes went down.

I certainly can't relate to the impulse of watching 8 games where they're mostly bad and then two games where they're pretty good and going "ah see, there's the team I know and love, we're back on track"
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. à 12 h 42
Sujet: 10 Game Progress Report
Binnington has been impressive. I was critical of him last year. Obviously the defense was bad but I felt Binnington had to shoulder some of the blame. I don't know how much the new system changes have really affected the Blues' defensively- I still feel they're very porous and the metrics would back that up. But Binnington is papering over those problems in a way he wasn't the last two years. I gotta give him props. I still don't expect him to be a .920+ goalie for the entire year, but if he's above league average that's a very strong development for a goalie that they're paying above league average.

With the offense, I really do think people (maybe including the Blues' front staff) really bought into Vrana/Kapanen/Blais' end of season performances, and ignored the elevated shooting percentages. They were good low cost bets to bring in, but were they a replacement for what Tarasenko and O"Reilly and Barbashev might have brought? I admit even I thought Vrana would be playing a lot better than he has been. I think Hayes is still finding his way, but I do think he's a perfectly serviceable 3C. 3x3.5 for a 3C is not bad.

The big problem with Hayes is that his role is redundant on the team because Schenn is playing like a 3C himself, at least at 5v5. I love his energy, I love what he brings to the table, I think it was a slam dunk to make him Captain. But he's looked over-exposed in the 2C spot this season. I hope it's just a slow start. He's currently on pace for less than 40 points.

I think where the offense has really suffered has been Kyrou. Yes he's been snakebitten. But everyone screaming about how bad he was defensively (on a team with two goalies below .900 and one of the worst defenses in the league) I think failed to consider that if we go down that road with him he might just be a player that ends up good at nothing. His defense has been better, but it's not anything spectacular. And now he's also not scoring. Again, maybe he's starting slow (and he's playing a lot of minutes with Schenn). You don't add a new dimension to your game overnight. But if this holds all year- is it going to have been worth it to turn your 8million dollar 30 goal scorer into a mediocre two way player?
Forum: Armchair-GM2 nov. à 11 h 0
Sujet: Deadline
I think the issue you're running into here though is that a lot of the players you're replacing those moved out with are way over exposed. Bolduc isn't even in the league right now- and not playing particularly great yet in the AHL, frankly- and he's on the top line? Has Neighbours earned a look in the top six? Has Alexandrov earned a spot in the lineup period? I don't really see the forwards we have as blocking anybody from playing time they deserve. Similarly, I'm not thrilled with how Krug and (less so) Leddy have played, but what does Tucker on the top pair do for anybody (especially Tucker himself, who looks over-exposed in a third pair role?).

In addition, most of these vets you're moving, they're not worth anything. No one wants Krug. You're not getting a 1st or even a 2nd for Saad unless he starts playing a lot better. So what's the point? Are you willing to retain on Leddy or Krug? I might be. Are you willing to pay another team in picks or prospects to get rid of them? I think given that this team is bad that doesn't make a lot of sense.

Really the only thing they really need to do is they need to get Perunovich more time in the lineup. He's earned an everyday position, and we have to see if his body can hold up to the rigors of an NHL regular. But that needs to happen now, not at the deadline. Otherwise, just let the chips fall with these guys. I don't see the upside in putting all your young guys in spots they aren't ready for on a team that's not going anywhere.