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Danny12357

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12 juill. 2018
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Capitals de Washington
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Forum: NHL Signings18 juill. 2022 à 7 h 10
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Pierre Engvall (1 Year / $2,250,000 AAV)
There needs to be a "meh" button.

Engvall had arbitration rights, so we won't know how fair/unfair relative to market this is until we see what kind of awards similar players get. He will have had more leverage than most RFAs, but looking at this on it's face, its not likely to be a "Bad" deal, in that Engvall, based on age and history, is likely to easily live up to the amount he got.

The Meh part comes in because it's higher than many expected, and there was no additional term given, which usually is something the team wants when a player is an RFA.

I would lean "yes" it's a good deal, but entirely based on the fact that Engvall is likely worth at least the amount he signed for, and there are no future years to muddy the waters or turn it into a negative value if he doesn't continue his progression from last year, but having said that, there is nothing here to get excited about.
Forum: NHL Trades15 juill. 2022 à 13 h 51
Sujet: (OTT/WSH) - Brown for 2024 2nd rd pick
While I am not sold on Washington still being a contender, they are having a nice and tidy offseason so far.

Upgrading their goaltending to Kuemper and adding Strome and Brown to their forward group is solid work. The fact that in total they basically did all of that without hurting their future outlook. They got about as much back for Vanecek as they paid for Brown, so they basically added their biggest needs without having to blow up their cap or go longer term than they are hoping their current window is (Ovie's current deal).

I know every team's goal is to win a Stanley cup, but it's probably just as important to stay reasonably competitive while Ovi is chasing the record, and I think they took a good step toward that this offseason. Brown's a solid middle six winger who can do a bit of everything. Good get, and they smartly pushed the pick until 2024, so they can hold the remaining picks they have left for what is supposedly a deeper 2023 draft.
Forum: NHL Trades14 juill. 2022 à 7 h 39
Sujet: (VGK/CAR) - Pacioretty, Coghlan for future considerations
This trade is proof that no matter what someone will troll vote on a trade. For this trade to be good for Vegas, Pacioretty would need to get hurt enough to massively damage his ability to be effective, but not enough to just go on permanent LTIR, and even then they had to add another player who at worst is just a 13th forward/AHL call up. Even if the odds of Coughlan becoming a significant positive value are near 0, the chances of him being a net negative are actually 0, so it's still a win to get him included.

Waddell just killing it this off-season. Getting assets for TDA, then using less than you got to get Burns to replace him is a big win. But Waddell targeting a winger on free agent frenzy day, and just side stepping the entire mess to pay no assets to get a strong winger on a reasonable cap hit with just 2 years term left is masterful.

As much as people have warned of teams getting into "CAP HELL", this is it, Vegas is there. Maybe a few teams have had to accept a little less value on trades because of cap issues, or couldn't sign a player they liked, but Vegas had to give away a very good player just to be compliant, not even to make room for an addition. So far this summer they have traded away 3 forwards, and all their reward for it is having to play the LTIR dance with Weber's contract for the next 4 years. That is brutal.
Forum: NHL Signings13 juill. 2022 à 13 h 7
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Ilya Samsonov (1 Year / $1,800,000 AAV)
I really like this signing. Hard to fault it at all, he's an RFA at the end so if he really takes off you aren't losing him for nothing very likely.

Overall, I really like the IDEA of betting on two higher risk, high ceiling options given the costs and lack of consistency available in this goalie market. All of the options feel like you are just hoping they are a legit starter, none have a track record of being one for any long stretch. It's like the Leafs went "I'd rather two 30% chances instead of one 50/50 shot". My only gripe is that Dubas got crushed in his trade negotiations with Ottawa, as I really feel Toronto at least should have gotten a 2nd and 3rd from Ottawa, or had them pay a 3rd team for more retention, but overall, given the market, I'd rather two high upside gambles with low commitment.
Forum: NHL Trades13 juill. 2022 à 11 h 30
Sujet: (TOR/OTT) - future considerations for Murray + 2023 3rd rd pick + 2024 7th round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ritzy</b></div><div>The more I think about it, the more I believe that he was in a time crunch to get something done. It's all but officially signed that Campbell and Kuemper are going elsewhere, and the market is drying up.

The longer he waited, the more Dorian would know that he's desperate. Probably would have cost Dubas the salary retention if he waited it out.</div></div>

It's obvious Dubas felt pressure, but my argument is that he shouldn't have. Ottawa isn't less desperate to shed actual money after trading for Debrincat, and if other goalies sign elsewhere, that also limits places they can deal Murray. I don't think you can just get Ottawa to retain more, but at the very least, Dubas should have gotten assets worth similar to the reported deal with Buffalo. That should have been the floor IMO.
Forum: NHL Trades13 juill. 2022 à 7 h 59
Sujet: (TOR/OTT) - future considerations for Murray + 2023 3rd rd pick + 2024 7th round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>What a lot of people seem to not understand if no matter who he signed we could have been screwed

Lets say we signed Kuemper 6mill x 6 years and he becomes Seattle's Grubauer would we have been happy no

Or lets say we extended Campbell 5mill x 5 years but he plays like he did in the second half of last year would fans have been happy no

This not only costed less but we got picks out of it and only need to worry about it for 2 years and considering he played better than Mrazek and his injuries werent as bad its worth the gamble

But in general there really was no true big upgrade it net via free agency, there is no Vasilevskiy, Ottinger, or Shesterkin on the market rn. If there was 100% that goalie would be way out of our price range and be in the 8-10mill range

Murray plays like he did last year and gets support can see a 0.915 sv and even if not as we saw last year he has a 0.906 and as a certain team proved you dont need elite goaltending to go far these days.

Also this lines us up for when Hellebuyck becomes a UFA ;)</div></div>

I generally agree with this. I liked Murray as a target, but Dubas had leverage and had time on his side, and used neither. That's a failing, and makes this underwhelming.

This already isn't the worst goalie deal made this year. The return paid for Georgiev, who has never even shown that he has starting upside, is still much worse. I know nobody can bring themselves to criticize a championship team, but that deal is just objectively worse. It probably gets applauded though when Colorado has a 115+ pt season and Georgiev's numbers look ok but with a ton of wins, despite the fact they could have just signed pretty much any two NHL quality goalies for next to nothing and been fine.
Forum: NHL Trades13 juill. 2022 à 7 h 56
Sujet: (TOR/OTT) - future considerations for Murray + 2023 3rd rd pick + 2024 7th round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ritzy</b></div><div>I have to agree, the return here is very underwhelming.

I have a feeling they probably did try to get a third team to retain, it's possible that neither side would agree to pay the third team.

The plus is that Murray's contract ends at the time as Matthews and Nylander. If they inked Campbell to the contract he's asking for, it would have been an issue getting AM and WN extended in two years. So there's a positive there.

I find it ironic that everyone is praising Dorion for getting rid of the ugly contract he signed, but Dubas gets ridiculed for offloading a bad contract he signed. Standard TOR hate. You could make the argument that Dorion gave up less to get rid of Murray than Dubas did with Mrazek, but we'd be splitting hairs on the value.

At the end of the day, this is Dubas' big gamble. If Murray turns it around and stays healthy, Dubas looks like a genius. If not, his job may be on the line. Only time will tell.</div></div>

That's my issue with this as well. I was legitimately impressed that Dubas was targeting Murray, but that was because I thought there was a lot more value to squeeze out of here one way or another. I have softened a little, but only because I think every GM in the market for a goalie is getting absolutely hosed right now.

Detroit having to pay a 3rd for the UFA rights for a goalie with less than 100 game experience, and give him a big contract is objectively bad, especially when comparing to paying a 3rd and much lower cap hit for an equally impressive Ned last year, a deal that definitely doesn't look like a home run. The cost to acquire Georgiev was terrible, and again he hasn't been very good, and we haven't even seen a glimpse of an impressive ceiling in his case.

So I hate the deal because I feel Dubas got fixated on the player, not the value, jumped the gun, when he had lots of time, and just generally got out negotiated by Pierre Dorian, which feels unacceptable. Given that every goalie available this offseason carries very substantial risk, I don't hate taking two longer shots at much lower total cost, but I hate that Dubas had all the leverage and gave it all away.
Forum: NHL Signings12 juill. 2022 à 9 h 55
Sujet: Colorado Avalanche signed Alexandar Georgiev (3 Years / $3,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>you talk about injuries in kuemper, disregarding Murray is way more injury prone....So no Murray at 75% is not more preferable than Georgiev.
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXFRCnjXgAEuBoX?format=jpg&amp;name=medium" alt="FXFRCnjXgAEuBoX?format=jpg&amp;name=medium">

He is quite good downlow and in tight...he has had issues with high danger slot shots. At a glance that tells you that team defensive issues in front of him and positioning have been hurting him. Better D and better Goalie coaching on positioning are easier fixes.

Its a risk but people are acting like Georgiev cant save a beach ball, not at all true</div></div>


I am not disregarding the injury issues with Murray, I kind of just assume those, I am stating that I don't think there is a single goalie option out there that is very stable, all of them are bets on the best you hope they can be, with varying costs.

I like the idea of Murray over Georgiev assuming the return was as significant for taking Murray as it was for acquiring Georgiev. Basically, I think that both are massive risks, and I even think that Murray is a little more of a risk than Georgiev, but I liked how much you a premium was available to take that risk, and getting a cheaper term.

Murray would be a great target if a team got him for free while getting Ottawa to pay for a 3rd to to retain enough to get him on a cap hit starting with at $2M, or if you get significant assets you can do something else with, or even just restock the cupboards. But Toronto unfortunately got desperate and turned a good target and good bet into a goalie they got fixated on, and let Ottawa fleece them.
Forum: NHL Trades12 juill. 2022 à 9 h 47
Sujet: (TOR/OTT) - future considerations for Murray + 2023 3rd rd pick + 2024 7th round pick
I liked the idea of targeting Murray, but it was because it was an opportunity to have <strong> All of the leverage</strong>. There is no sure fire good bet in this goalie market. I don't think the Georgiev deal was a better use of assets, Campbell getting #1 money despite severe volatility and never playing over 40 games is a bad risk, Keumper's getting even more after a weak playoff hampered by a scary eye injury isn't enticing, so I get the idea of buying very low on Murray or getting some significant assets to take a shorter term bet, but Dubas fell in love with Murray as a player rather than falling in love with the idea of making a smart bet where he could extract max value.

Had the Leafs managed to get Murray for free at a $2.5M cap hit or lower by forcing Ottawa to pay assets to a 3rd team for retention, then great. Had Dubas gotten significantly more value in futures for taking on Murray than was reported on the table for Buffalo, then again, acceptable. Getting significantly less than a deal that was nixed, that's throwing away assets.

Ottawa does well here. The money matters as much as the cap hit, and they got out from under approximately $11M in real dollars over the next couple of years, and they did so without giving up much of anything. Dorion was up against a wall. We know what he was prepared to do to move Murray, we know after taking on Debrincat's salary along with future QO that his motivation level should have gone up and not down, and we know that there was basically no competition for this deal. Despite all of that, Dorion negotiates the price to take on Murray downward, and somehow creates enough Urgency that Dubas pulls the trigger early, despite the fact Dubas could easily have circled back later. So what if one of Washington or Edmonton makes the deal first, that just means you are one of the two teams bidding for one of the two starters. Let one of those teams take themselves out of the running if that's the case, and then you can squeeze whichever UFA doesn't get the biggest deal.

This is the deal you make when all other options are completely off the table. Ottawa wins, and Toronto takes a worthy gamble, but doesn't get paid even close to enough of a risk premium to do so.
Forum: NHL Signings11 juill. 2022 à 11 h 37
Sujet: Colorado Avalanche signed Alexandar Georgiev (3 Years / $3,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>This is an important point. I think this is a rare mistake for Sakic and even if Georgiev bounces back, it is still an overpayment which will make finding other pieces harder.</div></div>

I agree, but that being said, I don't think his mistakes or overpayments are massive. The team's window is now, they have the pieces to win multiple cups in a 3-4 year window here, and their best player (Makar) is a god send that is very much just entering his prime, and he has a great contract that will keep them competitive even when the roster is in decline. So there is logic to just overpaying to cover your short comings, I just think he went a little beyond a reasonable overpayment ( I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but I do think when you are on the cusp like this, there is a reasonable amount you should be willing to overpay for specific needs).

Goaltending is so random, that I think Carolina actually really had a great approach. Find goalies who are clearly talented, have had success, but have fallen out of favor, and make low cost, low commitment bets. If you are a strong team, you can make it attractive to play behind and give a goalie a lot of room to operate. I don't think there are more than about 4-5 goalies in the entire NHL worth making a big cap hit commitment to with term, and I honestly think it's because the reality is after the top 7-8 goalies in the NHL, there isn't a lot of difference between goalies #9-#40, and those small variations in performance just look huge with the heightened expectations. Goalies are expected to be so good now, that the room for error is tiny. If you can't get a top guy, your primary objective should be keeping costs down, not trying to read the tea leaves of which middle of the pack guy is gonna turn into the next Vasy (hint, it's probably not whoever you guess).
Forum: NHL Signings11 juill. 2022 à 8 h 34
Sujet: Colorado Avalanche signed Alexandar Georgiev (3 Years / $3,400,000 AAV)
This seems a little rich given his spotty track record, but Goalies are voodoo.

People are hesitant to ever criticize anything Sakic does as GM, and between a cup win and winning GM of the year, there isn't an argument that he doesn't know what he's doing, but that doesn't mean he never overpays or makes a mistake, it just means his positive moves far outweigh his negative ones.

Last year, the Avs paid a big price for 1 year of Keumper, and while he had a great regular season, injuries were again an issue, and he was not overly effective in the playoffs. Now the Avs parted with more picks for a goalie who wasn't going to be qualified, who is coming off an awful season, and seems to be declining consistently, then gave him a pretty significant contract. It's a pretty big gamble. I know cap space is at a premium, but I honestly think getting an asset to take on 75% of Murray's remaining deal would actually be preferable than this.
Forum: NHL Signings11 juill. 2022 à 8 h 27
Forum: NHL Trades8 juill. 2022 à 12 h 9
Sujet: (PHI/CAR) - 2nd/3rd/4th round pick for Deangelo + 7th round pick
This is a weird trade to evaluate.

I mean, if DeAngelo didn't have his past off ice issues, you look at getting a D of his offensive ability for a 2nd, 3rd and 4th as buying low, but saying that isn't even remotely close to the actual scenario.

Here is the way I see it. Canes took a stab on a player nobody wanted, got tremendous value for $1M in cap hit (which they could have buried at anytime), and rather than commit to him, just got picks in exchange for that free asset. Easy win overall.

Flyers probably got a decent talent for the picks, but this team isn't competitive and they shouldn't be spending assets on a player who they will have under contract for 2 years. Even if he plays well this is a terrible use of assets. The fact that this player comes with the amount of baggage that he does is also troubling, and given the baggage, this price seems a bit high. So the flyers just lose here. TDA could put up 60 points next year, and that just means the Flyers get a worse pick in a draft that is supposed to be very deep, so it hurts them on several levels.
Forum: NHL Trades23 mars 2022 à 16 h 43
Sujet: (OTT/VAN) - 3rd for Hamonic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>Yeah, this is a weird one. Those of you who are suggesting that Ottawa would have been better off to trade the pick for Dermott instead of Hamonic are assuming that they had the opportunity to do that. I think GMs have their favourite trading partners and probably don’t call every other GM in the league before they make a deal. Dorion may not have known that Dermott was available for a mid-3rd-rounder.

A couple of other pieces of trivia around this that some of you might find mildly entertaining:

1) Vancouver got back their own 2022 third-round pick from Ottawa, but the pick they sent to Toronto isn’t the same 2022 third-round pick. It’s Winnipeg’s. Based on today’s standings, that would be exactly one pick after Vancouver’s, so if that holds, not only did Vancouver exchange Hamonic for Dermott, they also moved up one spot in the draft.

2) Both of these picks were traded for Nate Schmidt at different times. Vancouver traded their pick to Vegas to get Schmidt, then a year later flipped him to Winnipeg for their pick. Since these picks are going to be pretty close to equal, they got a year of Schmidt for nothing (other than his salary).</div></div>

I would imagine you are right about Dorian not necessarily know that he could have had Dermott (and he likely could not have had him for the same price). I was listening to an episode of the podcast Agent Provacateur and Allan Walsh essentially suggested that a majority of NHL GMs only have a tight circle of other GMs they talk to regularly. I would imagine Dorian isn't talking to Dubas regularly, and Dubas probably would have wanted a bit of a premium to trade Dermott to a division rival, even if that rival isn't a near term playoff threat.

The interesting thing to me though, is that no matter what way you slice it, Ottawa paying an asset for a veteran defensemen at the deadline is a bit strange. Hamonic was on waivers earlier this year I believe, and he doesn't fit the veteran profile Ottawa often looks for. He has a signing bonus, and earns more in salary for next year than he counts against the cap, basically the opposite of what Ottawa usually wants. They could likely have waited until the offseason and likely gotten a veteran D making a little too much from a team looking to shed salary (maybe even Hamonic) or just signed one to an inexpensive deal. The fact that they didn't do either of those things makes be believe they very specifically wanted Hamonic, and see something there worth paying for. Either way, it was a strange deal.
Forum: NHL Trades23 mars 2022 à 15 h 41
Forum: NHL Trades22 mars 2022 à 11 h 56
Sujet: (ANA/VGK) - Kesler, Moore for Dadonov and 2nd Round Pick [REVERSED]
Vegas is full on in LTIR, so accrued cap space becomes less useful than actually taking on LTIR to increase the cushion, so my guess is this may allow them to activate a player they would not have been able to otherwise ahead of the playoffs, and that could be necessary for them to even make the playoffs. Either way, they needed to move salary before next year anyway, and nobody was going to be doing Vegas any favors, so I get why they made this deal.

All that being said, Anaheim wins here, and hand one hell of a deadline for a team that should be re-building aggressively. Adding picks and prospects now, so you can start to be competitive in 2-3 years as Zegras enters his prime is the way to go, and they just loaded up the cupboard. I believe they will probably find a way to get something out of Dadonov too, so this is a pure win.

Anaheim and Montreal's management groups really have done an excellent job just diving into a rebuild/retool and getting massive assets very quickly. Not sure I have ever seen a new GM get so aggressive so quickly, but now we are seeing two do it at once. Will be exciting to see those two teams build and likely become really competitive in the next few years.