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Danny12357
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Forum:
NHL Trades
6 févr. 2023 à 8 h 31
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>The islanders have made infinitely worse trades then this *cough cough* Chara for Yashin</div></div>
Yeah that was awful. I think this trade is just strange because it isn't about over- or undervaluing a piece in this trade, but more that it seems that Lou completely missed the mark on his valuation of the roster as a whole. If this deal was about Horvat as a go forward piece, then why pay the mid season premium? Why not trade for his rights after the season for a fraction of the cost?
Strange trade overall, we just don't see a lot of head scratchers like this anymore, and I kind of miss them.
Forum:
NHL Trades
2 févr. 2023 à 12 h 38
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>I think the problem with this trade is that now New York is pot committed on re-signing Horvat. Bo's agent can play hardball with Lou and tell him he won't sign for a dollar less than $9M per season at max term. If Lou tell him to kick rocks and Horvat goes to free agency, then the Islanders just got massively fleeced and Lou looks like a moron. If Lou gives him what he asks for, then he's just committed more money than he should have on an extension for a player that may or may not be having a fluke season.</div></div>
Yeah, that's a scary proposition to me. One of Lou's strengths has been his ability to maximize leverage when he has it, but now he enters a negotiation where he gave the other side maximum leverage before it even started.
Forum:
NHL Trades
2 févr. 2023 à 12 h 36
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KennyBoi</b></div><div>Finally the Horvat to BOS trades can stop.
Think Lou overpaid, unless Horvat gets extended which I imagine is the case here.</div></div>
I honestly don't quite get the idea that extending Horvat just forgives a terrible trade. He is a UFA at year end, even if a team wanted just his signing rights ahead of the draft, that costs what? A 3rd? 2nd at most? So that gets back some of the value, but the price paid is based on him helping now, but this team is likely beyond help for this season. It's not that they can't be a good team, or that Horvat couldn't help, but I don't think people realize just how far out of it they are. There are plenty of scenarios where the Islanders play more like the version of them that went to the conference finals, but that still isn't enough to make it. They realistically need to play at a .700 points percentage to give themselves a good chance, and they didn't have many 30 game stretches at that level even back when they were very good. They need to be better than very good, they need to be excellent. Anything less and they fall short, and basically overpaid for signing rights.
Forum:
NHL Trades
2 févr. 2023 à 9 h 34
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>You're in the camp of wait and see so you can take hindsight into the equation when the GMs couldn't. Vancouver won the trade based on the circumstances when the trade happened.</div></div>
I agree completely, the only real caveat to the "wait to see what happens" is when the GM demonstrates later they had knowledge that most people didn't. Trades need to be evaluated based on the information that was available at the time, but sometimes we can find out later that the GMs involved had information that can change our perception of the deal.
I think with Vancouver, they win the deal against the Islanders, but whether or not they got "good" value will kind of depend on how the assets will be used in a rebuild. If Rutherford fully understands this is a tear down, then priortizing the 1st as an asset above all else is the right move, and a more valuable 1st wasn't likely to be available. If he plans on a 1-2 year turn around, then the deal is a bit underwhelming because the roster player he got back is negative value, and the prospect doesn't have a super high ceiling.
The Islanders virtually can't change my mind. There is no scenario where I can look at this trade and make sense of it. I have heard some saying Lou will just flip Horvat for more than he paid to get him if things don't work out, and while I don't doubt the packages out there will get better closer to the deadline, the thing is that that also means the value of the pick they just gave away will also have gone up, because it will be more of a sure thing to either be in the middle of a deep draft or an unprotected pick for an aging team with an empty prospect cupboard who just missed the playoffs twice in a row. If it doesn't work and they flip Horvat, they enter an offseason where they should clearly start a rebuild without their own first the next year. That's still terrible.
Forum:
NHL Trades
1 févr. 2023 à 15 h 29
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>I don't think they were planning to flip Beauvillier, but I didn't consider that he might be a cap dump, other than to the extent that the Islanders needed to clear some space for Horvat’s cap hit this season. I must admit that I haven’t seen Beauvillier play much lately, but I saw him as a solid middle-6 guy at a salary that was by no means a bargain but not unreasonably high for what he brings. I think that’s how the Canucks see him too, though I can’t say for certain, because I wouldn’t expect them to admit that they didn’t really want a guy they just traded for. He’s only got one more year left on his contract, so he won’t be a long-term liability, but they’re not in a position to trade cap space for futures. Horvat’s value to Vancouver was limited to whatever they could get in a trade for him, but as one of this year’s most sought after rentals and with the ability to retain more salary than they did, they should have been able to get a good return without taking back a contract they didn’t want. If Beau (not Bo) is a negative asset, they would have been better off to leave him out of the deal and take fewer positive assets.</div></div>
Beauvillier is probably overall pretty neutral to slightly negative. He's basically getting paid twice what he should be, and it's apparent teams aren't willing to pay players of his calibre and age the money he is getting. Dylan Strome and Nino Neideritter both signed last summer for less money and limited term, and both have been significantly better players over the last few seasons than Beauvillier, so it's unlikely he is seen as an asset based on his cap hit. Vancouver can afford to just take him back, and can maybe flip him in his UFA season for an asset if they put him in a position that best utilizes his skills, but I don't think he was a requested trade piece so much as the player that made sense to make the money work.
Forum:
NHL Trades
1 févr. 2023 à 15 h 19
Sujet:
(VAN/NYI) - Horvat for Beauvillier, Räty, conditional 1st
Vancouver clearly wins this deal, but I don't think either fan base can be too thrilled.
The Islanders make perhaps the worst trade I have seen in years. This deal is tough to swallow for a contender, but for a team where Horvat's addition doesn't even bring them close to even money to make the playoffs, it's just ridiculous. Signing Horvat to an extension is actually likely to make this worse, as Horvat represents the exact type of scenario to create a massive overpayment on an extension. He's going to be 28 at the beginning of a new deal, he is a former captain, he is perceived to be a good 2 way player despite very mediocre defensive metrics and results, he's having a career year, and he is riding high on percentages that aren't likely to be sustainable. He's a good player, but given that he didn't come with an immediate extension, it kind of suggests that he isn't a guarantee to sign, or at the very least it's going to mean paying top dollar, and that isn't something a team in the Islanders situation should be interested in. The fact of the matter is that the Islanders are likely either giving up a mid first in a historically deep draft, or going into 2024 with the NHLs oldest roster after missing the playoffs two years in a row while having no 1st round pick. That is awful asset management. Basically this amounts to Lou just taking a stab and hoping for a miracle, but probably having it blow up in his face.
From Vancouver's point of view, I think they made the right call in trading Horvat given their situation, but the return isn't spectacular, and there is some concern that it signals a quick retool when this roster needs a complete overhaul. Beavillier is negative value right now, he's basically a Pierre Engvall getting paid to be Adrian Kempe. Raty is a good prospect, but represents a safe bet with modest ceiling, so overall the return is a little underwhelming, and could point to signs that Rutherford might try and rush things and turn his tenure in Vancouver into more mediocrity.
Overall Vancouver easily wins the deal, but fans will probably want to see a bit more of the bigger picture before they get too excited, but at least there is a lot of hope on their side of things. The Islanders just reek of desperation, and end up making a deal that might go down as the worst we have seen since Hall for Larsson. Some will try and defend it, but it's not defensible. The reality is that if Lou was going to take a swing this big, it should have been in the years where the Islanders were atop their division with a deep playoff ready roster, letting those teams sink or swim on their own, and then spending this much on a team that has been very mediocre for the last 18 months is just a terrible strategy, no matter how optimistic you are.
Forum:
NHL Signings
13 déc. 2022 à 10 h 34
Sujet:
Dallas Stars signed Roope Hintz (8 Years / $8,450,000 AAV)
I suppose this contract is ok if you like having consistent, productive, underrated, defensively responsible players under contract for reasonable cap hits during their entire prime, but personally it's more fun when teams sign Ristolainen to big money contracts with term, only to watch him produce absolutely nothing while playing horrendous D.
But I guess this is ok in it's own way.
Forum:
NHL Signings
6 oct. 2022 à 11 h 38
Sujet:
Dallas Stars signed Jason Robertson (4 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
When I first saw this deal, I thought it was great value, but figured Dallas had to sacrifice locking Robertson up for as short a term as possible, but then I realized he's still an RFA at the end of the deal, and while that QO is a bit higher, it's not nearly the jump from his AAV that Meier's is, and realistically he's had a comparable start to guys like Marner and Rantanen, so the $9.3M AAV wouldn't have been a big stretch today if he had that deal, so this is a massive win for Dallas.
Forum:
NHL Signings
5 oct. 2022 à 15 h 41
Sujet:
New York Islanders signed Mathew Barzal (8 Years / $9,150,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Damn that's rich.
Paying a 60 PT Center Elite 1st Line Center money until he's 34 is a Lou type of move</div></div>
I don't like this contract more because it shows how much more value there would have been signing him at a number like this a couple of years ago, since then you are only committed until age 32, but $9M isn't elite #1C money anymore, it's probably low end #1C money at this point, and players are expecting to be compensated for term with the heavy rumors of cap increases.
Forum:
NHL Signings
29 sept. 2022 à 14 h 36
Sujet:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed Rasmus Sandin (2 Years / $1,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliethegoalie</b></div><div>can't wait to see what kind of cap wizardry it's gonna take to squeeze this one into the final roster
unless this is gonna be another one of those sign-and-trade things</div></div>
They are almost $2.9M over the cap based on a 23 man roster, so if they go with a 20 man roster they could get under (depending on who gets sent down), but in reality the Leafs likely go into LTIR to start the season with the rash of injuries, which gives them time to evaluate a few players, and if necessary I think they could move Justin Holl if he ends up settling as the 7th D.
Forum:
NHL Signings
29 sept. 2022 à 14 h 15
Sujet:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed Rasmus Sandin (2 Years / $1,400,000 AAV)
Good deal for the Leafs. Surprised Sandin ended up just accepting a deal he could have taken months ago, but if he was truly mostly concerned with opportunity, the injuries the Leafs have sustained already to their blue line means he's going to get plenty of ice to work with early on. Leafs will likely have some LTIR space early in the year, and if Sandin performs they can either carry a minimum roster or trade Holl rather than make him a $2M 7th D.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 sept. 2022 à 15 h 30
Sujet:
Colorado Avalanche signed Nathan MacKinnon (8 Years / $12,600,000 AAV)
Well it's no sweetheart deal, but this is still good value for the Avs, and I think it was important they kept Mackinnon an Av for life, so good deal for both sides.
Contrary to what a lot of people suggest, I don't think Mackinnon intentionally left massive money on the table last time, I think he just took the guaranteed money after a semi-disappointing couple of seasons following a very good rookie campaign. It ended up being one of the best value deals in hockey, but it didn't look that way to start. The Avs invested in potential and got rewarded for the risk.
I do think it's important that this deal seems to acknowledge that Mack is amoung the very best players in the league and deserves to be paid like it, while keeping at a point where the team can be very competitive around him. Players of his caliber making big money isn't what kills a teams cap, it's the waste in the middle of the line up, and for the most part the Avs have been good at avoiding this, so they are going to be a contending team for quite a bit longer. Rantanen and Makar's deals are absolute steals right now, and outside of Manson's contract, they have a pretty tidy cap situation too.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 sept. 2022 à 15 h 14
Sujet:
Colorado Avalanche signed Nathan MacKinnon (8 Years / $12,600,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>I hate how right you are. He's also not been ashamed to ask for what he feels he's worth. I'm hoping for 14ish. I am actually hopeful this contract brings his ask down to the 14 range instead of 15+
Anyone who thinks this contract brings Matthews ask up, I think was way undercalling his likely ask</div></div>
I'd say this is bang on. The Matthew's contract was always going to be more about determining how much he would become the highest paid player by, not whether or not he would. So the starting point for that conversation just went up by $100k, which is meaningless, and if anything, having the other two comparable centers in the NHL signed for such similar amounts could help anchor Matthews next contract closer to theirs.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 sept. 2022 à 15 h 4
Sujet:
Colorado Avalanche signed Nathan MacKinnon (8 Years / $12,600,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CJets</b></div><div>Auston Matthews probably has a big smile on his face right now</div></div>
I don't think this contract will have any impact on Matthews. Matthew's next contract discussion starts at him becoming the highest paid player in the league, and goes up from there. The new starting point of negotiations being $12.6M instead of $12.5M won't really change much. If anything, the dollar figure starting so close to McDavid's could create a bit stronger of an anchoring point for how the league values MVP caliber centers. It's not going to keep Matthews from surpassing Mackinnon's new contract, but it might have an impact on how much he passes it by.
Forum:
NHL Signings
12 sept. 2022 à 10 h 48
Sujet:
Montreal Canadiens signed Cayden Primeau (3 Years / $890,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>didnt bergevin give lingdren a 3 year deal too around 800k?</div></div>
You're right he did, I thought it was similar to his deal from before, but he gave him a 1 way deal for 3 years. I didn't think Bergevin did a lot of those types of deals, or maybe he did and I just never noticed or maybe he never really captured lightening in a bottle with one to make it memorable. However the Lindrgren deal is a great example of why these deals are worth doing, because when they don't work out, they still don't cause an issue, and nobody really remembers them.. or at least I don't I guess haha.
Forum:
NHL Signings
9 sept. 2022 à 6 h 53
Sujet:
Montreal Canadiens signed Cayden Primeau (3 Years / $890,000 AAV)
As much as this is a minor deal, this is the sort of thing that Bergevin rarely ever did. By paying an AHL goalie real money on a one way deal, you can create a situation where you can send them up and down while still making them feel they are part of a plan, give them some security and runway to develop, and if it works out that he's even a competent backup in year 2 or 3, you have a decent chunk of cap space. Worst case scenario a rich team invested some real money in a young player with no impact to their cap situation what so ever.
These deals fizzle out to essentially nothing more often then they turn into wins, but the risk is essentially 0, so you find a good number of these types of things over the next few years and the couple that do work out are still huge value.
Forum:
NHL Signings
8 sept. 2022 à 12 h 56
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Tim Stützle (8 Years / $8,350,000 AAV)
Fair deal in General, great deal for Ottawa. Context matters, a team who had a divisive owner, who passed away this year, had low attendance, having the ability to get long term deals on all of their young core despite the rumors of a big cap jump in a few years is a pretty significant win. They are betting that some of these deals will age very well, chances are the worst of them aren't great, but the cap jump will make them manageable, and they will have a solid core to use to attract players for a legitimate window of relevance. I think that's some pretty good work.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2022 à 13 h 12
Sujet:
Montreal Canadiens signed Kirby Dach (4 Years / $3,362,500 AAV)
These are my favorite types of gambles, because they will be a little divisive in terms of whether they make sense from an analytics type of view, but the strategy here is sound.
Dach's uneven NHL start probably makes this an overpay, but Montreal can handle an overpay, especially in years 1 and 2 while they aren't likely to be ultra competitive. What they get in return is to buy what could be a couple of years as a steal, and hopefully, buy some goodwill going into the next negotiation where they won't have a tonne of leverage, but he will be young enough, that pairing him even remotely fairly on long term deal at the end of this one, likely still is a very solid deal overall.
Montreal's risks all lie in years where they likely don't need the cap space that badly, and the rewards are getting him on the cheap for the first year or two they may start contending and setting themselves up for easier decisions on a 3rd contract.
Even if the downside of this contract is more likely than the upside, the reality is that the downside barely hurts the Habs if it occurs, while the upside can turn into quite the windfall.
Forum:
NHL Signings
4 août 2022 à 13 h 51
Sujet:
Edmonton Oilers signed Kailer Yamamoto (2 Years / $3,100,000 AAV)
Did they just wait out Puljujarvi and make sure Yamamoto got a little more ?
Not sure who goes. Pulijujarvi is a good player, young, good underlying numbers, so no idea why it seems they want to push him out the door (He screams Nichuchskin vibes to me), but he would at least be easy to move. Barrie and Foegele are names that I have seen suggested as having to go, and normally I would think either player would move for a positive return, but the marketplace seems ground to a halt, so I can't imagine those are easy moves.
Barrie could fit as a PP1 specailist on a team who can shelter him on the bottom pair, but that's a specific fit, and I am not sure there is going to be enough teams with that specific need and the cap space to drive up the price, and could easily be a team like Seattle deciding they want something for taking him, or just wanting it to be a trade for "future considerations".
Foegele is a player that has started a lot of years hot, makes me think he's capable of being a 20+ goal grinder, but then you look back at the season at the end and feel like the offense dried up. He's the definition of a solid 3rd line player, but teams almost want those guys making next to nothing now, so I think he will be moveable as well, but I doubt it's for any real return.
Gonne be interesting to see the outcome of a bunch of teams needing to make trades with how little cap space is available out there.
Forum:
NHL Signings
4 août 2022 à 13 h 42
Sujet:
San Jose Sharks signed Mario Ferraro (4 Years / $3,250,000 AAV)
This is one of those price points that is never going to be "fair". Realistically, if he's a decent top 4 D, this is a good deal for the team, and he's being underpaid by at least a bit. If he's actually better suited to the bottom pair, then this is an overpay. I like the bet by the Sharks for sure, and the player guarantees himself some money, so I think the deal is good, just that when it's said and done, nobody will be looking back at it and thinking the player was worth right around this, it will either have been a significant overpayment, or a steal.
Forum:
NHL Signings
2 août 2022 à 12 h 32
Sujet:
Anaheim Ducks signed John Klingberg (1 Year / $7,000,000 AAV)
Normally I just answer these based on whether or not I think the player will deliver more in value to the team than the cap hit costs them. I would say that is a fair for any deal where the player is very likely to be worth more than they are being paid. There is very little argument to where it can be a bad idea to sign a player who is willing to accept less than they are worth, so that works pretty cleanly in those cases. However I do think in cases where it's borderline or possibly unlikely the player is worth the value, I think it's fair to consider the context and overall strategy of the team, and this is one of those cases.
I think it's actually pretty likely John Klingberg isn't a top pairing D anymore, so there is a good chance he doesn't deliver $7M in value to Anaheim next year, since you expect top pairing quality for $7M. However Anaheim wants to make a bit of a push toward playoff contention, and wants to insulate their young stars. If Klingberg helps this team get to the playoffs, then regardless of whether or not he was worth $7M, it's worthwhile since Anaheim had nothing better to do with that cap space for just 1 year. If they don't, and they flip him at the deadline for any asset what so ever, they basically just bought a pick or prospect for nothing but cash, while getting a veteran presence to help mentor some of their younger players for part of the season. The risk is virtually 0, and the rewards, while likely modest, are still worth the gamble, and they literally had nothing else they could really do with that cap space for just a year. They probably couldn't commit to using the space to take on multi-year cap dumps, so I think this is a good bet.
Even when this type of gamble doesn't work, similar to Hall in Buffalo, it still kind of worked because Buffalo managed to get a Hall for part of a year and a 2nd, which is still better than just sitting on the cap space.
So it's an easy win for a team still working its way out of a rebuild, and the player gets paid well and a chance to prove he is worthy of a longer commitment. I am honestly not sure why we don't see more of this in the NHL.
Forum:
NHL Signings
27 juill. 2022 à 9 h 42
Sujet:
New Jersey Devils signed Jonas Siegenthaler (5 Years / $3,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>Yes, he's great on defence, but he's got nearly zero offensive upside.
It's s good contract, but it isn't a steal like some are saying.</div></div>
Seems like the definition of solid value. Maybe a skewed a little by market value of big defensemen how are labeled as "Big, stay at home, defensemen", who can have middling results and get way too much money (Chiarot, Gudbranson, Manson), so coming in considerably less expensive than that group, buying his prime years, and being actually elite defensively, makes it look like a steal, but reality is, with no offensive upside, he will have a hard time turning out to be the value contract that some are suggesting. He probably is worth more than he got, but he was an RFA, so it's very in line with his skill set. Not overpaying for this type of defender is definitely a win, but it's not like he would actually turn out to be worth $7M or something that will turn this into one of the best value contracts in the NHL.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 juill. 2022 à 13 h 5
Sujet:
Nashville Predators signed Nino Niederreiter (2 Years / $4,000,000 AAV)
Solid deal. I am surprised Nino took this long to find a home, and he didn't take as big a haircut as I thought given that it took so long, but he's good 2nd line forward who is particularly strong 5 on 5, but doesn't add much to special teams. As a compliment on a scoring line to chip in 20+ goals and be a nuisance and help drive play, hard to argue with the price.
Forum:
NHL Signings
19 juill. 2022 à 7 h 38
Sujet:
Buffalo Sabres signed Eric Comrie (2 Years / $1,800,000 AAV)
This is a goalie I thought made a very interesting target for a team willing to give him some extra starts.
It's actually quite crazy how much more money Husso earned by just getting more starts last year. Right up until last year, both goalies would have had essentially the same value. Both mid drafted goalies around the same age, with solid pro numbers outside the NHL. Both had only gotten small numbers of NHL starts, so hard to gauge on those numbers as there are a lot of short call ups, replacement games, an other noisy interference in their numbers. Both came in last year as a the clear backup option. Both were very very good in the games they got and showed they are at least worth a longer look in the NHL. Only real difference is Husso played with a starter on a good team that wasn't given as long a leash, so got the opportunity to play about twice as many games. Comrie was never gonna get that chance playing behind Hellebyuck but he play outstanding when he did play behind a very poor defensive team.
Husso definitely earned a little more money, and the extra games played definitely are worth something to evaluating a goalie, but considering how similar they were coming in, and both played well in the games they did get, it's kind of crazy that Husso essentially got 3 times as much AAV, and cost a pick just to get the rights to sign him.
I like the gamble on Comrie, at worst he's likely at least worth having as a back up on a team not expected to make the playoffs.
Forum:
NHL Signings
19 juill. 2022 à 7 h 31
Sujet:
San Jose Sharks signed Kaapo Kähkönen (2 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
I am surprised he got this much, but it's been such a weird market for goalies, it isn't crazy, just a tad higher than expected.
Kahkonen seems like he could be a good goalie, but he's a prospect project for all intents and purposes. His advanced analytics haven't been particularly great, but no goalies are in Minnesota. Goalies traditional stats are always very good, but the team defensive metrics are always incredible while the expected save percentage is so high goalies have a hard time not underperforming it.
This makes some sense as goalies have come and gone, had great numbers, then struggled elsewhere, but at the same time, this defense just doesn't seem as strong as it used to be (but their offense is way up), and they have gone through various different coaches with different styles, so you start to get the feeling that some of it may be that the shot attempt and location tracking are biased, which makes them hard to gauge.
Either way, Kahkonen is 25, had decent traditional numbers, and certainly not enough games played as an NHL goalie to come to any real conclusions about what his ceiling is. So given the Sharks are in a re-tool, finding out what they have on a 2 year deal seems like a decent enough bet. If he's terrible, he will help them get a higher pick. If he's very good, then you have a 25 year old goalie that could become your starter. No risk really, but some decent upside potential.
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