It’s a good idea. Not sure how much interest Canes would have though.

They were interested in Ully in season when Freddy and Raanta were both hurt, Freddy’s return was very iffy, they were in a Cup chase, down to a rookie and a waiver claim in goal. With Freddy back, and 3 goalies under contract, not sure the interest remains.

My thoughts exactly, I think there will be plenty of goalie movement across the league this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina flipped Freddy to a team like Colorado or Edmonton who would see him as an affordable upgrade for draft capital. Waddle stepped down from the GM position and I think he was hesitant in season knowing this was his last run and gambled on either of those two coming back rather than taking a large piece of the locker room out to do it.

That’s a good team. Lindholm and Necas do feel like they will be targeted by the Bruins. They make so much sense. I would prefer the money going to old and slow Dillon partly goes to Heinen in between 2-2.5M. They could get a depth defenseman and get reinforcements at the deadline if necessary. Plus Lohrei showed he can tilt the ice in the top four. I would flip Coyle and Poitras as the Fred-Coyle-Geekie line becomes a true shutdown line, and Poitras could explode playing with skill players.

It will be interesting,

Ullmark is an immediate upgrade over Andersen. Last two years, Ullmark GSAx /60 is .593 over 97 games vs Andersen at .247 over 59 games. IMO, I agree with patrickr8 that Andersen should be easy to flip. The open question is the difference between Ullmark and Andersen made up in value by Lysell and a 2nd (I don’t see Carolina needing to add the third).

I can see it happening and believe it makes sense, but talent evaluation is a fickle thing and you never know from either side.

I could also see a situation where Carolina wants a more immediate impact player at a different position and doesn’t want to go through the headache of trading Andersen.

I also could see a scenario where Boston prefers to trade Ullmark for a pick and cap room to just sign FA’s while giving Lysell a decent chance to make the roster. Reality is the $7M it takes to sign Necas might be a few million more than they want to spend on the second forward they acquire so they can put some money into a left D.

That said, I think the bones of this deal really make sense in terms of equal value. Both teams fill immediate needs at likely the right salary mixes. Its a nice combination of upgrades that could be sold to the fans

Canes easily pass

My guess is you should be able to sign Heinen for $2M as long as it a multi year contract. The reality is I think Swayman and Lindholm both get more with leverage.

That leaves signing a vet insurance policy around 1.5 to 2M for the D which is a challenger for Wotherspoon with Lohrei taking top 4 minutes

Canes pass. Ullmark is of no interest for Necas. Freddie was better after his return than Ullmark was in both the regular and postseason. Lysell is interesting, but Ullmark isn't. There's just not enough here for Necas

So here is a question. If the Csnes are not interested or go a different direction with Necas would you:

Be willing to package Sway for Brady T? Drai? Keep Ully.

If you would consider that what would be your preference, packaging Sway or moving Ully for less than value to move gain cap?

Arbitration eligible RFA who doesn’t want to be there or at least his dad/mentor believe it to be the case. What do you think you are getting for him?

My perspective is remove the third and this is easily better than what other teams are going to offer for him. Is there a package that you think is realistic to acquire him that makes this an “easy pass”. I don’t see it.

Frankly, I’m privately hoping they trade Ullmark for a late first and take that money to resign Jake DeBrusk

My perspective is you don’t move Swayman. Hes an important part of the team’s identity and frankly has shown he can provide stability to the team.

My perspective is pretty simple. If the right value can come for Ullmark, I trade him. Something in the lines of a second and Shai Buium or an NJD 2025 first round pick, I do the deal and try to sign a forward.

If all I’m offered is a discount that makes a non playoff team in the East significantly better with cap space being the primary benefit, I turn to Montgomery to try one of the two kids at forward from Providence and probably resign Heinen to go with the center that is signed. Part of me believes that trying Lysell at forward will have similar success as Lohrei as the 2nd line LD. It might come with some growing pains, but it could easily be the best case scenario.

I move the goalie mix to 2/3 Sway, 1/3 Ullmark and see if diminished opportunity opens up Ullmark to consider another option if it’s the right one. At the same time, I wait for the dumb teams that went cheap at goalie to materialize.

Ultimately, I’m a bit indifferent if that cap flexibility comes this year or next. My belief is that you will secure value for him or keep Ullmark. I’d like to make the move early enough to sign a free agent or maybe reconsider a bigger Jake DeBrusk deal, but I don’t believe the interaction from Sweeney on JDB is normal discourse and now believe he is gone. That was my driver of urgency.

Full value, full stop.

There’s absolutely no reason for the Canes to not accept full value for a player such as Necas.

If you think 1 yr of a 30yr old goaltender, a (so-far) underwhelming prospect and a 2nd comes close Necas in value, you’re delusional.

The Canes will easily get offers comparable to what Fiala, Reinhart or DeBrincat returned. The Bruins don’t have the assets for Necas.

Both Ullmark and Necas are essentially pending free agents where you have to pay a market salary soon. If you want to minimize Ullmark, I can easily say Necas has one outlier year and this payment is a premium over how he performed last year.

Ullmark has played at a high level over the last two years (his GsaX/60 is the best in the league for players who have played a lot) and that “underperforming prospect” just put up 50 points in 56 games in Providence which is better than Necas put up in Charlotte.

I doubt Carolina gets better. More power if they do. Personally, I’d rather sign a FA and keep the assets, but this deal could make sense for both teams.

Makes no sense for CAR

Goalies simply do not carry that sort of value, especially those with only 1yr left on their deals.

Andersen is quite comparable to Ullmark in terms of recent performance.

It’s been reported teams are lining up for Necas. If you think none of them beat your joke of an offer, then again, you’re delusional.

Ullmark has a .593 Goals Saved Above Expected /60 over his last 97 games during the last two seasons. Andersen is .247 over 59 games during that same time frame. I guess relative direction saving 2.4 X is about the same.

If someone scored 42% of the points per game and played 40% less games, would you call that player equal to Necas. That would be 18 points FYI.

Saying something doesn’t make it true. I have a stronger case that Pavel Zacha and Jake DeBrusk are statistically closer to Necas than Andersen is to Ullmark once you adjust for difficulty of shots faced.

Either way, my preference is to sign a FA and keep our assets.

And where do any of those fancy stats say anywhere that 1yr of Ullmark comes close to Necas’ value?

Again, delusional to think Ullmark as a centerpiece sniffs Necas

What exactly do you think Necas is going to secure?

You do know that the team that has to acquire Necas also has to give him a contract in the 7 to 7.5m range?

I believe you are going to be woefully disappointed OR just accept it and let Guentzel go if you believe this package is delusional.

From LeBrun - The Canes are looking for a “star” player for Necas. Likely the only player in that category that might be available for him would be Zegras.

Short of that sort of deal, sounds like the Canes are perfectly happy to hold onto him. They hold all the leverage. Something delusional fans such as yourself don’t seem to understand. Nothing is going to force them to trade him for less than what they want.

You think the Ducks are going to trade Zegras? That isn’t happening

What tradeoff are you going to make?

Sign both Necas and Jarvis to bridge contracts?

Let go of Guentzel?

Absolutely makes sense to go with the younger, unhappy player and hope to convince him not to be disgruntled

2 years is a long time. Read recent interviews, doesn’t seem too gruntled to me. They’ll trade him if a deal makes sense, if not they’ll keep him, simple as that.

They have plenty of time and the cap space to retain him if need be.

I’m not the biiggest fan of signing Guentzel to an $8M+ contract when Necas can be likely had for less and is 5yrs younger. No worries about them getting Jarvis signed, be it bridge or long term. More concerned about what they do with the blueline, but again, not worried there. They have the space, assets and cap space to rebuild strong there as well.

You're entitled to your own option, but I think this is perfect example of overvaluing your own homegrown talent. Objectively (outside of Boston and Carolina) - 9 out of 10 people would agree Ullmark is an immediate upgrade over Anderson. Especially given recent history with Ullmark the reigning Vezina winner and Anderson having bloodclots. Add in the career trajectories and the gap continues to widen. Carolina certainly does not have the leverage for the return you are predicting, and although there will be plenty of interest in Neccas, no one is going to be giving up a star player for a promising prospect with 1 decent year that has meddled around 40-50 points and commanding top dollar.

Valuing Neccas over Guentzel is a pretty hot take too, given the canes window is probably now through the next 3-4 years - why not keep the guy that has proven he gets it done in the playoffs and fits into that lineup like a glove? That is saving 1.5-2m for someone you hope eventually turns into Guentzel before the window closes. Especially if you think a 34 year old anderson is the answer.

Also curious as to why you think Lysell is underwhelming when he put up better numbers in the AHL during the same 21 year old season and is rated much higher than any of the canes forward prospects according to dobber prosepcts which has been pretty accurate. A kid that just turned 21 years old, wasn't expected to win a spot on last year's deep team and was not rushed up this year when the club was the best in the league for most of the season. I by no means think he is the second coming of David Pastrnak but would not think to say underwhelming either, but who knows.

If they don’t get what they want, they won’t trade him.

Ullmark is not really an upgrade over Andersen. What’s Ullmark’s save % in the playoffs again?

Lysell is a smallish winger. The Canes have plenty of those, not interested.

Why is it a hot take to prefer them to sign a long term deal with a 25yr player than a 30yr old, who will command a larger aav? Geuntzel will inevitably decline over the course of his next deal; Necas’ next deal will consist mostly o his prime years.

The Bruins don’t have the assets.

Of for sure! I could certainly see them flipping Poitras and Coyle a bit deeper into the season if he develops into a true 2C but I think hes got to put on some more weight and get some solid reps in first to there - either way coyle is much better slated at 2C or 3C rather than 1C.

I put Dillon with CM73 to start because although he is slower, he still was near the top of the league in blocked shots and hits so Lohrei can develop a stronger shutdown game with Peeke and time to QB the powerplay so McAvoy and Lindholm dont have to log extra minutes. I think eventually Lohrei will take that top spot if continues to improve at the rate he did this season and your bottom pair of Peeke / Dillion can focus on physicality in limited minutes. Like you mentioned they're sitting pretty but I want to see them continue to develop these guys rather than rushing them into top minutes and slowing development.

I may be in the minority on this one, but if Sway + pick OR prospect gets you Brady T I would do that, unfortunately I think they would be looking for Sway + 1st + Lysell/Murguelov. I think there is fringe starter level talent in Bussi and Dipietro is a solid goale prospect yet unproven at any level so 3-4 more solid years of Ullmark with the possibility of a younger guy taking over is worth it to me with the D they have in place and the opportunity to get Tkachuk. I wouldn't do it for Leon - there is a lot of milage there and I would be a bit nervous paying the 12-14 he will be commanding for the last 3-4 years of that deal depending on how he ages.

I agree 100% about Lysell, I think he could really take the opportunity and run with it. I would love for them to resign JD, I believe earlier this year some of the beat writers were saying Sweeney had offered a 5x5, I dont understand why they would not utilize the term and lower the cap hit - yes his speed is a big part of his game, but he is so heady that I think he will age well; He shows up every year in the playoffs, has the potential to pop off for 20-30 goals in the regular season, plays D, and kills penalties, if he can get 6x6 on the open market why not do something 7x5.25 or 8x4.75 with a modified movement clause?

I also agree, the cap space does not need to be used up this year, if they feel like there are significant pieces to be had next off season. I would rather overpay a bit for someone like Lindholm and bring in bottom 6 guys with higher ceilings to push guys like freddy, geekie, and brazeau.

To your point on Ullmark, I think there needs to be some urgency and if its not a 1st, a few prospects to push guys like Lysell and Muegulov would be my move. It provides some clarity to make bigger moves down the road. Also you have a chance to see if Bussi can translate all the AHL success to the NHL and he may become an attractive and affordable piece to the GM that drops the ball with Ullmark. It wont be the same return but an overpay for Busi would certainly help sooth an underpay for Ullmark

Buddy, one guy won the Vezina and put up better numbers than Anderson playing for Buffalo before that. Necas has had one season that has come close to the potential you seem to think he can just turn on. "Those fancy stats" are what dictate contracts and were the reason the bruins plugged Ullmark in and he thrived. You can say something until you're blue in the face but it doesnt make it correct.

Ask yourself this honestly, if they dont trade Necas and they go to arbitration what do you think the arbitor awards him? Honestly he is probably looking like 6 - 6.5 for having one strong year, hes isnt getting the 7.5 or 8 along the lines of debrincat or fiala which is the return canes fans are looking for. On the other hand if he is worth that, can the canes afford that without loosing another big piece?