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6 Newhooks is better than 3 Laines

Créé par: jonh514
Équipe: 2024-25 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 27 mars 2024
Publié: 27 mars 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Acquiring top 3 forward talent is hard. You need to pay a ridiculous price either in trade or in free agency. The only logical way to get it is to draft for it and/or develop it.

That being said: HuGo has done a great job getting Dach & Newhook and signing them to team friendly "prove it" deals. Great middle 6 players who can play up and down the lineup. I, like a lot of Habs fans, want us to target those types of players this offseason.

Here's some ideas I'd try.

Notes:

1) Fowler starts in Laval next season. Dobes plays backup in Montreal. I know Dobes AHL GAA is not good enough at first glance, but if you look at the 2nd half of the season, it's really good. He just got lit up in the first 20 games while he was adapting. It's understandable on a team that had 70% new players and we should look at his last 20 games instead.

2) Buried RHP. If we lose him, so be it. He has not been good this season.

3) Turcotte, Dvorak, Anderson, Armia, and Gallagher duke it out not to be the 13th man. Unless the team goes on a run, Dvorak & Armia are gone at the TDL anyway, so there will be room for everyone, including call-ups. Injuries will also play a factor.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
22 250 000 $
21 250 000 $
33 500 000 $
Transactions
1.
MTL
  1. Turcotte, Alex [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Former top 5 pick with disappointing production so far. At age 23-24 it's unlikely he breaks out and becomes the player he was drafted to be, but he can still fill a 3rd line role well, and maybe play in the 2nd line in a pinch.
LAK
  1. Primeau, Cayden
Détails additionnels:
LA needs a couple of Goalies and does not have a ton of cap room. Primeau should be one of them. He has been very good in limited usage this year and he only costs 1M next season before being RFA.
2.
MTL
  1. Krebs, Peyton [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Formerly expected to be an offensive force, Krebs has become more of a defensive player in Buffalo. I believe the offense is still there and he would get a better opportunity in Montreal.
BUF
  1. Barron, Justin [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Crowded blue line, even on the right side, and Reinbacher and Mailloux have made him expendable. He'll get a better shot in Buffalo who will have a spot for him on their bottom pair next season.
3.
MTL
  1. Lundell, Anton [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Lundell is this year's Dach/Newhook
FLA
  1. Evans, Jake
  2. Xhekaj, Arber [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
I think most Panther fans know that if they want to hold Bennet & Reinhart, they may need to sacrifice Lundell as a trade chip. First off on Salary, and second in order to restock the Blueline.

The issue is that most fans are offering picks, and to a team like the Panthers, picks are not very useful. Their window is now. They need difference makers right now. That's why this needs to be a good old fashioned "hockey trade". Value today with upside for value today with upside.

Evans is there to fill the gap left by Lundell. He's a Solid bottom six center with exceptional faceoff and defensive metrics. Has a little offense too.

The real gem here is Xhekaj. Hulking, bruising, scoring defenseman with tons of upside. Exactly the kind of player you want to ice in the playoffs.
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2387 500 000 $73 948 750 $1 022 500 $3 977 500 $13 551 250 $
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
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Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
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M-NTC
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
G
UFA - 3
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
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AG, AD
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
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27 mars à 9 h 13
#1
Darkblade
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what does preds fans have to do in the panthers trade?? and why would we trade Xhekaj for Lundell? im sure some other prospects would be much better, or picks, or even an OS lmao
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27 mars à 9 h 16
#2
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Buffalo should make that deal. Love my feisty little psychopath in Krebs but Barron is solid and I also really like him.
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27 mars à 9 h 18
#3
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value is there for sure, so props on that. Doubt Primeau has this kind of value though.

As much as I love Lundell and I think the value is fine, I wouldn't deal Xhekaj
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27 mars à 9 h 19
#4
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Quoting: AlakHul
what does preds fans have to do in the panthers trade?? and why would we trade Xhekaj for Lundell? im sure some other prospects would be much better, or picks, or even an OS lmao


Oops gonna change it. Sorry. Need more ☕
27 mars à 9 h 30
#5
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Quoting: Jackaille
value is there for sure, so props on that. Doubt Primeau has this kind of value though.

As much as I love Lundell and I think the value is fine, I wouldn't deal Xhekaj


Turcotte is not exactly lighting it up with 6 points this season. Primeau has a 0.910 save percentage on one of the worst teams in hockey. When you tack on the salary and the King's needs, I think the value is more than fair.

As for Xhekaj. I love the man but Struble gives you 90% of what Xhekaj gives you as a 3rd pair defender. Between Guhle's eventual swap back to the left, Matheson, Hutson, Engstrom, maybe even Trudeau one day, I don't think we have room for a Xhekaj in the top 4 on the left.
27 mars à 9 h 34
#6
You know nothing JS
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I'm against those deals because I prefer MTL players ceilings to those of the other (older) players, but IMO you did a good job of making valuable offers adressing to the other teams needs, which doesn't happen a lot around here.

I can't say those are totally unrealitic 👍.

Keep this AGM around, you never know...
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27 mars à 9 h 34
#7
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arber xhekaj is not available.
at all; for antyhign short of mcjesus retained.

go fish.
27 mars à 9 h 35
#8
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Quoting: jpsnow13
I'm against those deals because I prefer MTL players ceilings to those of the other (older) players, but IMO you did a good job of making valuable offers adressing to the other teams needs, which doesn't happen a lot around here.

I can't say those are unrealitic 👍


That's high praise around here. Thanks!
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27 mars à 9 h 39
#9
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Quoting: my_name_is_Fil
arber xhekaj is not available.
at all; for antyhign short of mcjesus retained.

go fish.


Sure he is. Are you playing him in the top 4 in the next 2 years? So then please tell me where you are sending Hutson, Reinbacher, Matheson, Guhle? Cause that's the top 4 of this team and when Matheson moves on, Mailloux, Struble, or Engstrom will take his spot.

Why are you so sure Xhekaj is a top 4 player, and if he's not, why is he not expendable for a top 6 center?
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27 mars à 9 h 44
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Not for Turcotte, LA will need him next season if they can't reup Lizotte.
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27 mars à 9 h 54
#11
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Quoting: tryger
Not for Turcotte, LA will need him next season if they can't reup Lizotte.


I mean... Isn't it easier to find a bottom 6 center in free agency than a Goalie on a 1M deal who can put up a 0.910 save percentage?
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27 mars à 9 h 56
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Quoting: jonh514
I mean... Isn't it easier to find a bottom 6 center in free agency than a Goalie on a 1M deal who can put up a 0.910 save percentage?


I mean LA found two goalies doing better than that at $1M or less, so yes in the case of LA it is easier to find a goalie than a 4C.
27 mars à 10 h 0
#13
Darkblade
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Quoting: jonh514
Sure he is. Are you playing him in the top 4 in the next 2 years? So then please tell me where you are sending Hutson, Reinbacher, Matheson, Guhle? Cause that's the top 4 of this team and when Matheson moves on, Mailloux, Struble, or Engstrom will take his spot.

Why are you so sure Xhekaj is a top 4 player, and if he's not, why is he not expendable for a top 6 center?


Xhekaj could be a version of Roy, plays in 3rd line but can go up and down in the lineup. Struble also doesnt bring what Xhekaj brings and thats law and order on the ice, I doubt that 6'3 220 players would be afraid of 6 ft 200 Struble in a fight, but would be less inclined to fight a 6ft 4 230 Xhekaj, imo. Struble, Harris and Engstrom are the ones that dont fit long term imo.
27 mars à 10 h 20
#14
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Quoting: AlakHul
Xhekaj could be a version of Roy, plays in 3rd line but can go up and down in the lineup. Struble also doesnt bring what Xhekaj brings and thats law and order on the ice, I doubt that 6'3 220 players would be afraid of 6 ft 200 Struble in a fight, but would be less inclined to fight a 6ft 4 230 Xhekaj, imo. Struble, Harris and Engstrom are the ones that dont fit long term imo.


Seriously? For Lundell. 6'1 center picked 12th OA who plays a 200 ft game and has offensive upside for days, you won't trade a defender you plan to play on your 3rd pair because he can fight in a league where fighting is disappearing?
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27 mars à 10 h 20
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I'd keep Primeau over Turcotte, Barron over Krebs, and personally I'm not trading Xhekaj under any circumstances and I don't think Florida would do that trade anyways. MTL can draft their own Lundell without needing to trade Xhekaj, they can also use their $16M+ in cap space to bring in a forward through free agency they don't necessarily need to go the trade route anymore.
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27 mars à 10 h 23
#16
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
I'd keep Primeau over Turcotte, Barron over Krebs, and personally I'm not trading Xhekaj under any circumstances and I don't think Florida would do that trade anyways.


Well that's no fun.

Shane, maybe you will answer where none of the other "never trade Xhekaj" crowd refuses to. Where do you see Xhekaj playing in 2025-26? 3rd pair, 2nd pair, top pair, is he a winger now? Because if it's 3rd pair... I just don't get it.
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27 mars à 10 h 36
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Quoting: jonh514
Well that's no fun.

Shane, maybe you will answer where none of the other "never trade Xhekaj" crowd refuses to. Where do you see Xhekaj playing in 2025-26? 3rd pair, 2nd pair, top pair, is he a winger now? Because if it's 3rd pair... I just don't get it.


I think Xhekaj is a top 4 defenseman (2nd Pair), but he will be playing 3rd Pair on MTL and that's great. So you're trading a top 4 D here with Evans for a top 6 C which is really a fair trade, but in my opinion Xhekaj's skillset is just too rare to trade and that's why I would keep him.
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27 mars à 10 h 39
#18
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Quoting: jonh514
Seriously? For Lundell. 6'1 center picked 12th OA who plays a 200 ft game and has offensive upside for days, you won't trade a defender you plan to play on your 3rd pair because he can fight in a league where fighting is disappearing?


just OS or trade them assets they could use at next tdl, maybe their own pick and our 2nd with Engstrom, so 2 picks between 20-40 and another top 4 Dman that'll be on a elc.
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27 mars à 10 h 40
#19
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I am not one of those people that see Lundell as a big upgrade to Montreal's roster. I think if Dach can come back and put his health issues behind him then he could be a good 2nd line center. This year they will probably draft a talented forward (Eiserman, Catton, Lindstrom) to eventually be that 2nd line player with Dach. Hopefully one of Newhook, Roy or even Mesar could fill out the 2nd line. I could see Owen Beck being a very good 3rd line center for the Habs.

With Lundell his offensive numbers have decreased each year in the league (0.67 points per game in his rookie year to 0.45 points per game last year to 0.43 points per game this year). To me that does not indicate a 2nd line center on a contending team. He is not a 2nd line center in Florida and they are a contending team.

So if Lundell is a 3rd line center, how does that impact Owen Beck's placement in the lineup moving forward?

I believe that Montreal has a top 9 forward group that could look like the following in the future:
Caufield Suzuki Slafkovsky
Newhook/Roy Dach 2024 First Round PIck
Newhook/Roy Beck Mesar/Free Agent/ 2025 draft pick

I am not saying that Lundell is bad, I just do not see a pressing need to give up assets to acquire a guy who looks like he has a ceiling of a 2nd line winger (if things turn around for him in a significant way) or a 3rd line center who would displace one of our other good prospects.
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27 mars à 10 h 45
#20
Matt1567
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not sure about dobes as the backup but if he's not ready i'm sure they could find someone to be the backup
really like the Krebs - Barron swap, personally I've started to lose hope in Barron being anything more than a Tony DeAngelo type player (PP specialist that you can't fully trust in his own zone)
I really like the idea of Lundell too, love Xhekaj and it would suck to see him go but as you've been saying, he's likely our 5/6 dman in a few years, and Lundell could be a Danault type player with more offensive upside if it works out, and that's worth moving Arber for
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27 mars à 10 h 49
#21
not a he )
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I've never seen a Montreal post that's so fair and balanced for what the other teams might want or need. Well done.
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27 mars à 11 h 17
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Quoting: tryger
I mean LA found two goalies doing better than that at $1M or less, so yes in the case of LA it is easier to find a goalie than a 4C.


who do you think they get next year for less than 1 mil? both LA goalies will want more after their season it feels.
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27 mars à 11 h 21
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only move i would not do is the primeau trade, he is more useful to us than turcotte. rushing dobes is a really bad idea.

primeau is the perfect exemple, he had much better number than dobes everywhere he went and it took years for him to establish himself as a good option in net in the nhl.

lets takes our time with dobes and see what we have in primeau.
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27 mars à 11 h 24
#24
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Quoting: drambui
who do you think they get next year for less than 1 mil? both LA goalies will want more after their season it feels.


I think you are looking at it from the wrong side, LA just made Korpisalo, Rittich and Talbot earn paydays.

LAs defense makes goalies jobs easier and bolsters their value. If you are Matt Murray, Ilya Samsanov, Chris Dreidger, Casey Desmith you are lining up for the opportunity (even at league minimums) to earn back a starter role and bolster their stats through a one-year budget deal.

Also, solid goalies who just want a path to a starter role and playoff games could sign for $2-3M like: Brossoit, Stolarz, Nedeljkovic, Fluery, etc.

LAs goaltending tandem is one of the best in the league at one of the lowest cap hits, everyone seems to think LAs goaltending is awful, but statistically Talbot has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, and the best over the last 10 games.
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27 mars à 11 h 25
#25
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Quoting: KentMcNally
I am not one of those people that see Lundell as a big upgrade to Montreal's roster. I think if Dach can come back and put his health issues behind him then he could be a good 2nd line center. This year they will probably draft a talented forward (Eiserman, Catton, Lindstrom) to eventually be that 2nd line player with Dach. Hopefully one of Newhook, Roy or even Mesar could fill out the 2nd line. I could see Owen Beck being a very good 3rd line center for the Habs.

With Lundell his offensive numbers have decreased each year in the league (0.67 points per game in his rookie year to 0.45 points per game last year to 0.43 points per game this year). To me that does not indicate a 2nd line center on a contending team. He is not a 2nd line center in Florida and they are a contending team.

So if Lundell is a 3rd line center, how does that impact Owen Beck's placement in the lineup moving forward?

I believe that Montreal has a top 9 forward group that could look like the following in the future:
Caufield Suzuki Slafkovsky
Newhook/Roy Dach 2024 First Round PIck
Newhook/Roy Beck Mesar/Free Agent/ 2025 draft pick

I am not saying that Lundell is bad, I just do not see a pressing need to give up assets to acquire a guy who looks like he has a ceiling of a 2nd line winger (if things turn around for him in a significant way) or a 3rd line center who would displace one of our other good prospects.


It's a fair argument, but not all draft picks and prospects pop. I think it's likely the guy we draft this year (let's say Catton) has a 3 year journey to being a valuable contributor in the NHL (as Lundell/Dach/Newhook are now) and maybe another 2 years to hit his stride. That is a long time to wait.
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