Hawks probably decline. Peeke has two years left on his deal and is barely an NHL level D man. He's been really bad the last season and a half. Takes more than that swap of picks to dump him.

the price on cap space/retention has gone up based on what we've seen, so i totally get your stance. do you think CBJ third + vancouver fifth gets it done?

leafs would definitely do this

i wasn't sure if it would be worth it for them to give up assets for provorov considering they have LHD reilly and mccabe under contract for 2024-25 and will surely re-sign benoit. do you feel like benoit or mccabe is 100% on the move?

leafs D needs talent regardless of which way they shoot

I’d take a chance on Boqvist

That's probably closer to fair value and might get it done. To be honest, I'm not certain the Hawks are going to be looking to take on any bad contracts this off season unless they get either a 1st or 2nd rounder to do it. But Peeke's buyout is really cheap so maybe the 3rd and the 5th get it done.

Bringing back Bean seems like a terrible idea especially at that amount, I don't see a ton of Jackets games but when I've seen him play he's looked awful, a terrible skater.

I don't think the Leafs would do that, the media backlash just wouldn't be worth it.

bean hasn't been a huge negative honestly. totally team-average 5v5 numbers this season and is competent at jumping into the play which has helped the team keep the puck moving up ice.

it's a pretty cheap number for a LHD with NHL experience that isn't a huge negative. put a reasonable buyout number into the contract and absolutely no movement restrictions and it'll be a find stopgap until svozil is ready or another better LHD is acquired. if you have to move him, there is for sure a team that would take him 50% retained and that dead cap is forgettable.

Leafs pass that first is only available for chychrun, it’s a fair ask and someone will pay that for him but it won’t be the leafs

right cool thats what i figured.

I like Provorov to the Leafs. That's definitely one of the teams I have circled for his destination. Tampa, potentially, after the injury. I could also see Boston or Vegas if he was fully retainted. It's hard to say which teams may not want his negative PR, though, which makes it hard to feel confident.

I get the long term projection for Marchenko, but I'm not sure I'd sign him to it. Love the player, definitely willing to go long term, but above 6 million seems steep and I wonder if that's his salary ceiling (kind of like Buchnevich). He doesn't have play driving ability in transition, though he's good at recovering pucks and extending possession. He is obviously a talented finisher. In which case, going shorter might be better and then giving him this contract in a couple of years.

The KJ contract seems like a no-brainer 10.2c 2 year deal. Following Sam Reinhart.

I'd be more nervous about Chinakhov. He really has the capacity to pop-off in the next two years. It feels risky either way.

I don't mind keeping Bean but I don't mind moving on either. It would really be nice to get someone who could help insulate and guide Jiricek but the team tried that and failed with their poor Provorov decision. I think Bean-Jiricek can be a really dynamic and good pair but we'll need a better D coach and perhaps system (and perhaps Centers) before it can really click.

Really, I'd just like a center that KJ can play with if it's not Fantilli (or wingers that let him play C).

i will fully admit that the chinakhov, johnson, bean, and marchenko deals are heavily informed by the AFP analytics projections - i've looked at some comps myself but im not great at contract prediction so i was deferring a good bit. i think marchenko 5 years $5 mil AAV feels better to me and then you find out if he's a true #1 RW and pay up at the end of the deal or you move on at the deadline. conveniently, 5 years would mean johnny off the books when it's time to theoretically pay up.

i agree with you on chinakhov. personally, i'd love to get all of chinakhov, sillinger, and marchenko deals with 4+ term this summer but i don't feel like that matches the precedent we've seen around the league. it'd be a lot of money to give out in one summer with just a slight cap bump. chinakhov's posturing earlier this season makes me feel like he's the most likely in that bunch to only sign short term in a "bet on myself" kind of way.

yea KJ is interesting because im personally not convinced he's an NHL center but it does feel like he needs a center we don't have, although i think he and voronkov have shown some things that might work out long term.

Yeah I assumed as much with the AFP projections! It's going to be an interesting offseason. I think punting 2 years, even though that's what their most common projections were, on so many of these is potentially fraught with risk. It sets up some of these players to be moved as the core comes up. It might be better to move some of them earlier for a veteran who can help insulate the remaining players skills instead of them all experiencing growing pains. At the same time, though, we've had so much coaching/system turmoil that it's hard to identify a "core" that we are willing to bet on.

Worth mentioning that Gaudreau's full NMC changes to a 10-team NTC in 26-27, so perhaps it may be worth risking 2 year deals for some of the prospects were are iffy about.