Why, if you are Anaheim, do you trade Zegras out for a chance to draft another Zegras? We already hit with Zegras, we risk missing with 6OA, Anaheim has no chance to win the trade, at best they break even, at worst they trade Zegras for a bust.

So no, doesn't get it done. It's not like Dach who was a reclamation project when MTL bought him.

I'm not the author of this AGM but I get the sense you hold Zegras in much higher regard than most fans of other teams. I don't think most view him as an offensive superstar that's simply limited by the team he's on but instead see him as an undeniably skilled but flawed playmaker (whether ultimately at C or W). I can infer that some of this may be the result of your perception that other team's fans have been undervaluing Zegras and, given some of what I've seen, I can agree. However, I think it's a disproportionate response to call a swap for a 6th overall pick "at best a break even".

As for what you'd stand to win, there are a number of high-end prospects likely available that can fill a variety of roles ANA might have better use of. Whether it be a RD like Levshunov, a powerforward like Lindstrom (though you have McTavish & Gauthier), an elite goal scorer like Eiserman, etc. Further, swapping Zegras for another high-end ELC contract likely better aligns with when the team is likely to start competing (~2 to 3 years once the young D establish themselves) and allows extra cap flexibility in the medium-term future. Sure there's some risk, but there are plenty of ways for ANA to win such a trade and any suggestion otherwise strikes me as being willfully blind to them.

Edit:

I appreciate your perspective. I wonder if there is another way to see it though? Perhaps Anaheim doesn't believe in Zegras' game for one reason or another. Or perhaps Zegras has let it be known privately that he does not want to be a part of the franchise long term. There is definitely smoke to the idea of trading him.

I think these are pretty fair proposals, with the exception of moving Kovacevic "anywhere for anything", he should actually hold value.

I'd rather keep 1st 2024 and draft Lindstrom, we need size not fancy hands

Not surprised. I think Lindstrom's numbers are inflated by his size. He is gonna get rocked in the NHL.

dach 2.0

We're not blind to the ways that we MIGHT win such a trade; we're mindful of the ways in which we might NOT.

Here's a question for Habs fans:

Player A: 200 games, 53 goals, 93 assists = 146 points, -44
Player B: 162 games (discounting a 10-game audition which makes his figures worse), 66 goals, 52 assists = 118 points, -40

Would you rather have Cole Caufield, or take a shot and have the sixth overall selection in this year's draft?

Based on?

This is a fair criticism. I would not trade Caufield. There are 3 differences between the organizations positions however which make this not just a question about the player's production.

1) Anaheim now has 3 players who's overall package at forward are better than Zegras', but the same is not true in Montreal. Caufield is at worst #3 on the forward depth chart behind Suzuki & Slafkovsky, but I would argue he is actually #1 based on his recent play and his improved play setting up his linemates and defensively. So Caufield, who can be seen as a flawed player in size and defense, means more to the Habs than Zegras, flawed for the same reasons, means to the Ducks.

2) Teams develop subcultures. On the Habs the bromance between Suzuki & Caufield has become a force for good on and off the ice. The way Zegras is talked about in the media and amongst Ducks fans around here, he is seen as a selfish player who is flashy and puts himself before the team. Now I am not saying that's who he is, I'm saying... While he is clearly a part of the core group of forwards talent-wise, from the outside looking in he does not seem to be a part of the core group of forwards culture-wise.

3) Caufield is treated like one of MSL's own kids. He is beloved by his coaches, his GM, teammates, and fans. The relationship with Verbeek & co does not seem to translate for Zegras. The narrative can most aptly be illustrated by how the two players signed their deals offseason. Caufield signed a max-term, team friendly deal, where he left money on the table "boston-style". Zegras held out and then signed a short term deal that leaves him in the best bargaining position possible for an RFA.

So yes, he's loaded with talent. But is he a cultural fit in Anaheim, cause he would fit like a glove in Montreal.

I'm not a proponent of trading for either player, but we'd have to at least add an "insurance" element to the Zegras trade.
That could be a prospect, a pick, or a young roster player. (eg: Kidney, 2nd, Ylonen)
Not another high value asset, just something to mitigate the risk of that 1st not panning out (the risk is fairly low).

Kakko I'd take and give a change-of-scenery chance, but we've already made a couple similar moves and it's time to save our assets for more "sure things".
I'd give up 3rd liner value for him but not top 6. I don't think NY is at the point where they are willing to sell him at that price.

Thanks for the positive feedback!

I agree, but I don't like arguing about a 5th vs a 3rd. I don't see him with the team long term and I doubt he brings back a 2nd.

Fair enough. I think there is a general rebuild strategy at play that focuses on building a core group that is in the same age-range as we've seen with Dach & Newhook. It has been detailed by injuries, but the early returns from both deals have looked good.

I think we can safely say both Kakko & Zegras should be expected to return to what they produced in 2 previous seasons as a floor and that they both have upside left so their ceilings can be much higher.

I think when you are trading a top 10 pick for a player, you don't necessarily need to add a second asset, but I hear you.

Well, I'd say the other guy was certainly somewhat blind to the ways that ANA might win given he said it was literally impossible for them to do more than break even Can't speak for the rest of you, though.


As for this, I'd say there are differences in circumstances I could point to. Ignoring said differences, as a non-Habs fan, it would very much depend on the rest of my roster & prospect system and what's ultimately available at pick #6. If I were in ANA's shoes, I'd rather have either of Levshunov or Eiserman over Zegras or Caufield. For MTL, the calculation is a bit different.

My view of the player. His positioning, the way he drives the net, the game along the board, and his massive frame. Here is what Dobber mentions about him : «Massive, physical forward who doesn’t sacrifice skill or smarts. Quick and daring in transition, willing to disturb opponents, and displays impressive character. Projects as a top-six power-forward center.»

You could also argue, Anaheim themselves don't value Zegras that high or they would have locked him up longterm already. Not only that but you are also disregarding the chance the player taken 6OV is better than Zegras.....

You are free to disagree of course but I think you'd be in the minority on this Zegras take. He's good but I don't think any actual GM values him higher than the proposed trade above. Not much a discredit to Zegras either, there are very few players in the league that are valued at a top 6 pick in a good draft but one thing is for sure, I'd take all those players over Zegras.

This is all to say, trading Zegras this year when his value is at its worst, doesn't make sense either. (Unless you really think he'll never regain his form). But his value this year, has taken a hit. I don't think the Habs would even offer 6OV for him right now. I don't think any team would.

I actually made a thread in the forums to discuss Kovacevic, but here are some things to consider.
- He's a RHD, everyone wants RHD.
- He makes less than league minimum this year and the next so he's a "Rental ×2" for a contender that has no cap space.
- He is 6'5" 223 lbs, everyone values size on Defence, especially in the playoffs.
- He is grossly underrated, especially by MTL. He is their best penalty killer and 4 of our defenceman all put up their best numbers at 5v5 when paired with Kovacevic (GF% + xGF%).

Xhekaj - Kovacevic (113.59)
Struble - Kovacevic (111.09)
Guhle - Kovacevic (106.57)
Harris - Kovacevic (104.46)
Matheson - Savard (103.48)
Matheson - Barron (99.91)
Guhle - Barron (98.95)
Harris - Barron (93.33)
Xhekaj - Harris* (93.07)
Matheson - Guhle* (80.91)
Matheson - Kovacevic (78.03)
Guhle - Savard (70.96)
Harris - Savard (69.50)

Shorthanded Stats:

Kovacevic: 7.57 GA/60, 7.92 xGA/60
Harris: 9.80 GA/60, 7.67 xGA/60
Guhle: 9.70 GA/60, 9.42 xGA/60
Matheson: 11.06 GA/60 , 10.46 xGA/60
Savard: 10.97 GA/60, 12.99 xGA/60
Barron: 14.54 GA/60, 8.51 xGA/60

He was a 3rd round pick himself and he actually hit he's an NHL'r that will play many games, even if he is best suited as a a 3rd pair defender that's much more valuable than a 5th or 3rd as you are suggesting he could be traded for. I'd argue it's even more valuable than a 2nd round pick. Based on the numbers alone, if Kovacevic doesn't hold trade value as you presume then we should be trading Savard or Barron over Kovacevic hands down because Kovacevic is more valuable to this defense core.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/795116

Edit:
I dont know if you noticed but when MTL was getting blown out and basically not showing up or competing whatsoever in that recent stretch of games, Kovacevic wasn't in the lineup. He is a solid defender. Struble literally credited him as his D partner for helping him when he broke into the NHL.

It is so common that I see people trading him for a 4th round pick or something and it blows my mind we don't see how valuable he is.

1: I don't consider it a problem that Zegras is 4th or 5th on the forward depth charts, that means we're are finally stocking high end talent at forward, and I would say he's still 3rd today as it stands.

2: He had a widely known bromance with Drysdale, and the three of them (including McTavish) would be regularly seen staying late after practice to work on stick handling and shooting together. All this crap about him being selfish and not a team player is been up in the media. He got benched by the coach for a period, it was a media **** storm. McTavish has been benched multiple times this year for the same reasons and demoted to the third line for weeks now, no one's reported **** about it. Zegras is the medias favorite whipping boy league wide because he gets the same attention as superstars or generational players, but doesn't produce on that level.

3: yeah, the negotiations were rocky, but Z was the first of the kids to get a big raise, all of the talent coming off ELCs in the next few years was going to be benchmarking their negotiations off Z's contract. Verbeek doesn't operate like a lot of GMs do, he's a disciple of Yzerman. Stevey Y didn't sign Debrincat to an 8 year deal either, he got 4. Commitment is a two way street, Verbeek wanted to see that Z was willing to buy into the kind of hockey he is building the Ducks into before he committed to money and term. And as for the coaching staff, Cronin loves Z, he understands the talent he has to work with there.

The chances of taking a player better than Zegras at 6 are minimal, this isn't that strong of a draft for forwards or that strong a draft at all, the chances of drafting a bust are significantly higher. So why take that risk, how much better could one of them potentially be? I've got a guy I have every reason to believe will be a point per game player or better throughout his prime years, that's a rare thing in this league. So go get your glcrystal ball and tell me if Cayden Lindstrom is going to be a 120 point player in 5 years time.

Lots of conjecture in there. Minimal. Bust. Isn't a strong draft..... anyway. Crystal balls work both ways. Show we where yours says Zegras will be a 120 point player who isn't regarded as one of the more overrated players in the league and I'll show you mine where there's a chance 1 of any of the players available at 6OV could be a stud as good or better than him.

Here is every Center drafted from 2010-2020 who has or had multiple 60 point seasons on their resume before turning 23 years old:

Tyler Seguin
Nathan Mackinnon
Aleksander Barkov
Leon Draisaitl
Dylan Larkin
Brayden Point
Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel
Matt Barzal
Sebastian Aho
Auston Matthews
Elias Pettersson
Trevor Zegras

Pretty short list eh?

10 year time frame, 7 rounds, let's say 30 teams for ease of calculation. Out of 2,100 players, Zegras is in a group of 13. I'm not going to dig deeper to add wingers, but let's be very charitable and say that multiplies the pool 5 times and say he's 1 of 65 out of 2100 players drafted in that time. That's a 3% chance.

So yeah, when I say the risk of picking a bust WAY outweighs the potential benefit to draft a better player than Zegras at 6, it's not conjecture, it's fact, because over half the names above were gone in their respective drafts before pick #6.

And yet of all those players listed, all of them signed long term contracts to cap % way higher than what Zegras got. So why does a player in the group of those guys, have such a hard time getting a lucrative long term contract as others before have? Because no one cares as much about the multiple 60 point seasons if there is something else negative to go along with it. That is what is bringing his value down in many peoples eyes.

Points aren't everything to GM's, coaches, fans, etc. if they meant as much as you think, he would have been signed long term, Verbeek would have been begging him to sign long term, just like literally every other GM does with their stars. Or if it were Zegras's camp wanting a short term, he easily could have used the guys above to comp to a better AAV. EP40 for example.

Anyways that's my opinion of it.

The worst case scenario to keeping Zegras around long term is that he turns into Phil Kessel, puts up a point per game, never figures out the defensive side of the game.

While he may not be a player you build a.franchise around, he was a vital part of the Pens cup dynasty and has three cup rings. If that's all Zegras becomes, we're not going to have any complaints. He has the potential to be more than that, and the coach loves him, it's just Verbeek where there is perceived friction.

We're more.than happy to keep him, and if we were to trade him for 6 OA, there would be an insurance piece coming with him.

Worst case scenario? I would say if Zegras becomes Kessel 2.0 that's a major accomplishment. Not a worst case scenario.

Either way, we'll have to wait and see as always.