Buffalo declines

Short on value or no appetite to move UPL?

Yes

Rodrigue and Luukkonen are 1 year apart in age. Same window. He's also having a pretty good year. One of like 4 sabres who can say that. The only way they trade him for a goalie nobody has ever heard of (sorry Olivier) and a 3rd rounder is if they immediately follow it up with an announcement that they are relocating the team to Houston.

Fabbro is not an upgrade on Ceci + u give up a 1st?

Analytically speaking, he is

I doubt Holland is going to spend another 1st on a defenseman from Nashville

UPL is playing well, really no need to trade him at this point

I remember when Kenny Holland used to trade 1sts at the trade deadline like he couldn't wait to get rid of them.

But that was a long time ago before the Salary Cap.

My personal favorite was when he traded a 1st to Tampa for Kyle Quincey.

That 1st became... wait for it...

Andrei Vasilevskiy 😲

Caps decline. If you want Dowd AND retainage

Sure but Ceci plays most of his minutes against elite competition so

Not a fan of these trades expect maybe the Washington trade but even then I don’t wanna give up Lavoie

If he has bad numbers against top comp that just makes him bad lol

Oilers would be crazy to trade Rodrigue, he's the best goalie prospect they've had in a long time and he's a similar age to UPL anyways.

His coaches take care to shelter Fabbro. His QoC is that of a 3rd pairing defenseman and his defensive zone starts rate is among the lowest on his team. He's not an upgrade.

You talk about analytics and numbers, but you don't actually quote any. Hilarious.

Ceci v Elites:
50.8 CF%
51.9 DFF%
36.7 OZS%

Fabbro v Elites
48.2 CF%
51.0 DFF%
45.9 OZS%

Yeah, those are raw on-ice percentages. Per evolving-hockey's individuals Ceci has a 28% EV defense percentile vs. Fabbro's 68%

Edmonton fans will die on 300 hills before admitting Ceci sucks lol

Because he doesn't. And Evolving hockey doesn't correct for QoC, zone starts and other critical components - those numbers are useless. You're better off looking at all the raw numbers.

TheAthletic converts RAPM charts (which account for all individual metrics) and filters it into percentiles using QoC, QoT, Zone %'s, etc etc..., based on that players specific counterparts.

Raw numbers driven from stattrick are more on-ice metrics, which are heavily weighted on the teams performance.

Ceci getting peppered against top competition just makes him bad. Because, shocker, he is bad.

You can keep your overpaid and washed 3RD and we'll keep our expiring RFA 25 year old. Thanks.

He isn't though. The stats prove it.

Over the past 2.5 seasons, Ceci is 18th in the league in TOI v Elites. Surely at least 1 of his 3 NHL coaches over that span would have noticed that he was "bad". Or maybe they're smarter than you?


Gladly.

The stats that show his EV defense percentiles are in the gutter? Lol. Dude was never good. Just because a coach plays him against top comp doesn't make him good. He still sucks

Don't think Washington will move Dowd with retention for anything less than a first, simply due to the loss of the retention slot over the next year. Don't know if they're super excited about Lavoie either. He'd struggle to ever get meaningful playing time in DC since he'd be behind prospects like Leonard, Lapierre, and Miroshnichenko (and due to the sheer amount of Caps forwards on longer deals, hard to see him supplanting someone like Milano or Protas). I think if they are looking at prospects, they'd probably be looking more at a LHD a few years out from NHL play, since Fehervary, Alexeyev, and in a sense Sandin have all graduated up to the NHL the last couple years.

@CD282

Wanted to pick your brain on this because you understand the numbers better than I do. Forgive the scaling on the image sizes.






Is the usage the only real concern here? The TOI? I personally like Fabbro's DFF% (PuckIQ) against all three flavours of competition that WoodGuy recognizes on his site. Perhaps a bit pie-in-the-sky to expect him to come in to top minutes or for Coffey to transform him into what, at least visually, others keep interpreting these numbers to mean.