Trying the math on three-way BOS CGY NJD deal

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Créé par: NHLfan10506

Équipe: 2023-24 Devils du New Jersey

Date de création initiale: 24 déc. 2023

Publié: 24 déc. 2023

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Have see a few three-way trades between BOS, CGY and NJD where Swayman, Calgary's rentals, NJD prospects are exchanged.

These are hard, so I tried going the numerical route. Here is what i did:

1. I used multiple comps to get a sense of pick value.
2. I used the Athletic's pick values to tally up each trade
3. I then assigned a number to each player involved in trade.

Feel free to take these numbers and play with them yourself to come up with your own asset values. This is just a rough back-of-envelope math here.

Yeah, that guy who says, "my player is worth twice that...your player is worth half that...my GM spits in your face!"....all I ask is to show your work now that I've shown mine.

-------

Pick values from comps to assign numeric value for each piece
(Using The Athletic Pick Value Chart)

Swayman = 6.7
-- Schneider (6.3)
-- Varlomov (7.1)

Hanifin = 5.6
-- Lindholm (ex Moore, 2nd) (5.6)
-- Kaberle (5.3)
-- Campbell (5.1)
-- Burns (6.5)

Lindholm = 5.8
-- Horvat (6.2)
-- ROR (5.4)
-- Giroux (6.2)
-- Hayes (4.9)

Holtz = 5.4
-- Dach (6.3)
-- Newhook (5.5)
-- Drouin (6.3)
-- Hartman (3.3)

Toffoli = 3.4
-- Palmieri (3.4)
-- Nyquist (2.4)
-- Zuccarello (2.3)
-- Bertuzzi (3.6)
-- Copp (4.3)
-- E Kane (3.4)

Bahl = 0.8
-- Siegenthaler (0.8)
-- Zadorov 2021 (0.8)

Daws = 0.6
-- Vladar (0.6)
-- Portillo (0.6)

Picks
-- NJD 2024 1st = 4.2
-- BOS 2025 1st = 3.5
-- BOS 2026 2nd = 1.1
-- NJD 2024 3rd = 0.7
-- NJD 2024 4th = 0.4

Retention
-- $2.1m = 1.0
-- $2.4m = 1.1
-- $3.3m = 1.5
-- $4.4m = 2.2

----------

Calgary

CGY Gives (-12.5)
-5.6 Hanifin
-5.8 Lindholm
-1.1 Retention to BOS ($2.4m)

CGY Gets (+12.6)
+5.4 Holtz
+0.8 Bahl
+4.2 NJD 2024 1st
+1.1 BOS 2026 2nd
+0.7 NJD 2024 3rd
+0.4 NJD 2025 4th

----------

Boston

BOS Gives (-11.3)
-6.7 Swayman
-3.5 BOS 2025 1st
-1.1 BOS 2026 2nd

BOS Gets (+12.3)
+5.8 Lindholm
+3.4 Toffoli
+0.6 Daws
+1.5 Retention from NJD ($3.3m)
+1.1 Retention from CGY ($2.4m)

----------

New Jersey

NJD Gives (-17.0)
-5.4 Holtz
-3.4 Toffoli
-0.8 Bahl
-0.6 Daws
-4.2 NJD 2024 1st
-0.7 NJD 2024 3rd
-0.4 NJD 2025 4th
-1.5 Retention to BOS ($3.3m)

NJD Gets (+15.8)
+6.7 Swayman
+5.6 Hanifin
+3.5 BOS 2025 1st

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

CRÉÉ		ANS	CAP HIT
TBD, Forward		1	3 481 183 $

Transactions

NJD

Hanifin, Noah
Lindholm, Elias (2 425 000 $ retained)

CGY

Be right back with your return…

NJD

Swayman, Jeremy
Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (BOS)
Choix de 2e ronde en 2026 (BOS)

BOS

Daws, Nico
Lindholm, Elias (1 212 500 $ retained)
Toffoli, Tyler (2 125 000 $ retained)

NJD

Return

CGY

Bahl, Kevin
Holtz, Alexander
Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (NJD)
Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (NJD)
Choix de 4e ronde en 2025 (NJD)
Choix de 2e ronde en 2026 (BOS)

Rachats de contrats

Cory Schneider: 2 000 000 $
Janne Kuokkanen: 325 000 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Elias Lindholm: 1 212 500 $ (25%)
Tyler Toffoli: 2 125 000 $ (100%)

Frais appliqués

Ilya Kovalchuk: 250 000 $

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2024
2025
2026

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	79 679 516 $	422 500 $	4 575 000 $	3 820 484 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Haula, Erik 3 150 000 $3 150 000 $ C, AG NTC UFA - 3	Hughes, Jack 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ C UFA - 7	Bratt, Jesper 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 8
Palat, Ondrej 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ AG, AD NMC UFA - 4	Hischier, Nico 7 250 000 $7 250 000 $ C UFA - 4	TBD, Forward 3 481 183 $3 481 183 $
Meier, Timo 8 800 000 $8 800 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	McLeod, Michael 1 400 000 $1 400 000 $ C RFA - 1	Mercer, Dawson 894 167 $894 167 $ (400 000 $$400K) AD, C RFA - 1
Foote, Nolan 863 333 $863 333 $ AG RFA - 1	Lazar, Curtis 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AD, C UFA - 2	Bastian, Nathan 1 350 000 $1 350 000 $ AD UFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Hughes, Luke 925 000 $925 000 $ (925 000 $$925K) DG/DD RFA - 2	Marino, John 4 400 000 $4 400 000 $ DD UFA - 4	Swayman, Jeremy 3 475 000 $3 475 000 $ G RFA - 1
Hanifin, Noah 1 237 500 $1 237 500 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 1	Miller, Colin 1 850 000 $1 850 000 $ DD UFA - 1	Vanecek, Vitek 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ G UFA - 2
Siegenthaler, Jonas 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ DG UFA - 5	Nemec, Simon 918 333 $918 333 $ (3 250 000 $$3M) DD RFA - 3

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Smith, Brendan 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ DG/DD, AG UFA - 1	Nosek, Tomas 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AG, C UFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie 9 000 000 $9 000 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 5
Tierney, Chris 775 000 $775 000 $ C UFA - 1
Foote, Cal 800 000 $800 000 $ DD RFA - 1

24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 13

GuyGuyGuy

Berkly goat Catton

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That might be the fairest 3 way trade I have ever seen

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 14

pretzelcoatl

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Only problem is there would be conditions on the Devils pick if the Meier condition hits, but otherwise I like it

Edit On second thought I don't like it. Devils are left too weak at forward
You forgot to include losing Toffoli in your summary

And there's no way Boston parts with Swayman and a 1st for just Daws and rentals

24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 27

Gofnut999

Rejoint: janv. 2017

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Here is the problem. You can throw comps, trade values, perceived value out the window.

The only thing that matters is Boston’s willingness to move Swayman and what it would take for them to do it.

Hint, it does not exist. And not that. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 47

Newgod77

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Boston isn’t trading their goalie of the future and picks for 2 rentals and an AHL goalie.

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 51

Tele21

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I can appreciate the values here. Do you have a link to that chart?

Despite the values, the reality is NJD is giving up a 4th liner, a 3rd pair D, and 4 lottery tickets for a 1G and 1D. If you were the GM for Boston or Calgary, would that make sense? Boston doesn’t need an AHL goalie, a 31yo wing, or a 2C. They aren’t in win-now mode like last year. I don’t see Calgary taking on young players who don’t move the needle, either.

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 54

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: GuyGuyGuy

That might be the fairest 3 way trade I have ever seen

Thanks...I am sure someone can improve it

24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 56

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

Good catch on Toffoli
I figured we could find a forward (Duclair, Henrique, etc)

Its definitely "win now" for Boston.
I assume they extend Elias Lindholm...but didn't price that in.

24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 56

MitchJr

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Quoting: GuyGuyGuy

That might be the fairest 3 way trade I have ever seen

Yet somehow the Devils get the best players - starting top 10 goalie + top pairing dman - without giving up as much either the Bruins or Flames - late 1st, an OK but far from impact young winger, an ageing pending ufa winger, a bottom pairing dman + picks. Curious how that worked out 🧐

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 57

dugg133

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Value-wise I think this is around fair, assuming Lindholm and Hanifin both come with extensions. But as others have said, I just don't see a willingness on behalf of the bruins to move Swayman. Maybe it borders on over-valuing him, but the bruins build teams from the net out so I just don't see them moving a 25 year old franchise goalie unless it's an offer so lopsided in their favor they can't say no.

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24 déc. 2023 à 12 h 57

#10

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: Tele21

For pick values...

Screen-Shot-2020-05-05-at-4.55.33-PM.png

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 1

#11

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: Tele21

Toffoli scored 34 goals last year...on pace for roughly the same this year. Wouldn't call him a 4th liner.

Boston is paying for good players at cheap prices.
Toffoli at $2.1m
Lindholm at $1.2m

Please suggest changes....I am all ears.

This is just for fun.

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 1

#12

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: MitchJr

How would you alter it?

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 2

#13

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: dugg133

...or they really really really like Nico Daws!!

(I'm not holding my breathe)

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 5

#14

MitchJr

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

How would you alter it?

I agree with Bruins fans here - I get why’d you hope / try but no reason for Bruins to move Swayman unless they get blown out of the water. He’s a top 10 goalie, RFA… just don’t see him going anywhere. Can’t speak for Flames fans but Hanifin to Devils seems likelier - maybe for a 1st + Hotlz (or equivalent) + whatever else is needed to balance cap.

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 5

#15

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: Newgod77

Boston isn’t trading their goalie of the future and picks for 2 rentals and an AHL goalie.

Probably not.

But they don't have a ton of ammo to acquire a center + winger if that is the route they want to go. (and fit them into cap)
Selling a goalie may be best path..

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 7

#16

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: MitchJr

I do not think Swayman (nor Ullmark) get moved. It just makes a fun ACGM.

Hanifin would definitely get a 1st...maybe Holtz...not both.

I am guessing 1st + 3rd without retention.

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 8

#17

Celtics21

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Quoting: Gofnut999

It’s interesting as goalie desperate teams try to rationalize why a player that’s displayed Swayman’s talent value should be lower because there are instances where you can pick up a goalie cheaper if you are willing to risk underachieving.

A 1st and.a 2nd from Boston likely nets or comes close to netting Lindholm, so we are trading Swayman for retention and Tofolli. The click on the phone is quick and decisive.

Even if you include Mercer, Boston likely says no. I’m not sure how this is hard to grasp.

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 10

#18

Celtics21

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

How would you alter it?

Acknowledge that NJ won’t give enough to get Swayman and value charts trying to rationalize it is a waste of your time

I could see something like this, but my bet is Boston just sticks with their goalies until the offseason

NJ or Carolina offers a first for Ullmark and cap filler to Calgary

Boston trades that first and a second to Calgary

Boston gets Lindholm

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 12

#19

dugg133

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Probably not.

But they don't have a ton of ammo to acquire a center + winger if that is the route they want to go. (and fit them into cap)
Selling a goalie may be best path..

I think you're looking at it like the bruins are gonna be going all in for the cup at the deadline, but I just don't think that's how the organization is gonna view it even though we're in first place. If the right deal comes along where we can add to the current team we'll make it, but we aren't gonna be trading a core member of the team in-season.

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 16

#20

Celtics21

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Probably not.

But they don't have a ton of ammo to acquire a center + winger if that is the route they want to go. (and fit them into cap)
Selling a goalie may be best path..

They need a top 6 forward. Not sure if that forward needs to be a center and they have a ton of cap room next year. The best path is free agency. It always has been considering that they went all in last year. There will be very good forwards and defenseman available that won’t cost the minimal cheap assets they have.

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 18

#21

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: Celtics21

Ullmark has NTC...so would have to be on his list.

But the return on Ullmark would still be less than the cost for Lindholm.

Goalies don't carry as much trade value (look at the history of goalie trades)

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 22

#22

Celtics21

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Free agents performing well below career averages who want $9’m a year also generally secure a rental rate. A first and a second seems like viable compensation for Lindholm. I don’t believe they are going to get better especially with how he’s played this year. To be blunt, I’d probably prefer to include San Jose for Herrl vs Lindholm because of the contract uncertainty.

I hear NJ fans saying goalies should be cheaper as they throw deals out for every goaltender because their goalies are the primary driver for underachieving.

Unlike Jersey, I’m completely OK going with the goalie tandem we have into the playoffs and acknowledge that we may have to wait til next offseason to acquire a better forward because we went all in last year

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24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 43

#23

Tele21

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

I’m with you. All in good fun. We aren’t saving lives here….

Just following what you set up for what NJD gives up in the deals. The depth chart here for Jersey shows Holtz on the 4th line and Bahl on 3rd D-pair. Toffoli seems like a guy the Devils would want to hang on to for the playoffs, no?

Also, agree to disagree where Boston isn’t in win-now or going all-in like last year. I’m sure they are just as surprised as everyone at how well they are doing after losing their 1C and 2C. I don’t think they are going to give up what little draft capital or young players they have for rentals this year. They’ll wait until the summer when they have cap space to play with. Unless, of course, someone knocks their socks off with a deal they can’t refuse.

24 déc. 2023 à 13 h 56

#24

GuyGuyGuy

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Quoting: MitchJr

Holtz is probably one of the most valuable young nhler in the league. Toffoli scored 70+ pts. Bahl is a good prospect.

Holtz + late picks are worth Lindholm, so Swayman and a first. Toffoli, first and Bahl is way too much for Hanifin, so I would even say New Jersey overpay a bit

24 déc. 2023 à 14 h 21

#25

MitchJr

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Quoting: GuyGuyGuy

First, literally NO chance Toffoli goes back to the Flames. Second - chacun son gout but in no way is Holtz one of the most valuable young nhlers in the league. Has pedigree (7th overall 3 years ago) but has yet to put together a solid season - although this year, looking better. But that’s far from one of the most valuable….
Third, main point to my post was simply unrealistic to think Bruins would move off of Swayman for what was offered.

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