Siegenthaler -- Hamilton
Bahl -- Marino
Smith -- Hughes
If we had one more year of Graves and Severson…
Siegenthaler -- Hamilton
Graves -- Marino
Hughes -- Severson
So it’s basically been a drop from Graves and Severson to Bahl and Smith. Bahl is good defensively in our own zone, but has been mediocre moving the puck. Smith does little well. And his passing out of d-zone has been brutal. Our whole system is based on possession through all three zones, but if we cannot move the puck successfully out of our defensive area to our puck carriers, we are muted our own strength.
As a result, NJD 5v5 game has suffered. We are getting fewer successful d-zone exits, fewer o-zone entries, few scoring chances, and less possession, which in turn has created more scoring chances allowed. Our goaltending can hang when we have the puck 60% if the time…but not when we are splitting chances with opponents.
Our 5v5 play has suffered due to the quality of chances. Look at these comparisons from last year.
Changes in 5v5 from last season (NHL rank last year vs this year)
- Shot attempts for: from 4th to 7th
- Shot attempts against: from 7th to 5th
- Unblocked shot attempts for: from 5th to 7th
- Unblocked shot attempts against: from 5th to 9th
- Scoring chances for: from 1st to 1st
- Scoring chances against: from 4th to 3rd
- High danger scoring chances for: from 3rd to 4th
- % of chances that are high danger: from 12th to 27th
- High danger scoring chances against: from 1st to 11th
- % if chances allowed that are high danger: from 3rd to 25th
While much play has been similar, the results have not been....
- Expected goals for %: from 2nd to 9th
- Goals For %: from 4th to 27th (!!!!!)
There are some shooting woes, but better quality chances will improve
- Shooting %: from 16th to 27th
- Shooting % on all attempts: from 14th to 29th
- Shooting % on unblocked shots: from 20th to 27th
- % of unblocked shots that miss net: from 14th to 25th
- % if shot attempts that are blocked: from 23rd to 26th
- High danger shooting %: from 19th to 16th
- Medium danger shooting %: from 23rd to 28th
- Low danger shooting %: from 13th to 24th
And goaltending will improve with fewer quality chances against
- Save %: from 13th to 26th
- Save % on all attempts: from 14th to 26th
- Save % on unblocked shots: from 11th to 29th
- High danger save %: from 26th to 31st
- Medium danger save %: from 12th to 26th
- Low danger save %: from 15th to 14th
Our struggles 5v5 are from the quality of 5v5 chances...
- % of scoring chances for that are high-quality: from 12th to 27th (!)
- % of scoring chances against that are high-quality: from 3rd to 25th (!!!!)
In short, we need better possession coming from back end.
% of chances for that are high-danger
- Hamilton 41%
- Siegenthaler 42%
- Bahl 36%
- Marino 40%
- Hughes 34%
- Smith 36%
When Severson was on ice last year, his per 60 rates led team in highest high-danger chances for, lowest chances allowed, highest chances %, highest goals for % and highest expected goals for %. He was central to our possession game and created more opportunities to score and limited opportunities allowed.
I do not think NJD needs to find a dmen to increase our hits per game. First, hits are highly correlated with possession. Teams that hit more hold onto the puck less. Second, we were 29th in hits/60 last year but are 19th this year. Most of that gain has come from more hits/60 from forwards. But we are also getting hit much less as we don't control puck as much (clean hits vs dirty hits is a separate matter).
Based on 5v5 play, with aim to improve better quality of chances, improve possession and get cleaner zone exits and entries (in effect come closest to replicating what Severson did well), I have ranked the best "rental" (UFA 2024) dmen for NJD based on those categories. Agnostic to lefty-righty since we have a couple of guys who can play both sides.
1. Noah Hanifin (CGY)
2. Chris Tanev (CGY)
3. Alexandre Carrier (NSH)
4. Gustav Forsling (FLA)
5. Brenden Dillon (WPG)
6. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (FLA)
7. Justin Schultz (SEA)
8. Nick Seeler (PHI)
9. Dylan DeMelo (WPG)
10. Matt Roy (LAK)
11. Sean Walker (LAK)
12. Dmitry Kulikov (FLA)
13. Brady Skjei (CAR)
14. Kevin Shattenkirk (BOS)
15. Ty Barrie (NSH)
16. Ilya Lyubushkin (ANA)
17. Tyler Myers (VAN)
18. Matt Dumba (ARI)
19. Tony DeAngelo (CAR)
20. Troy Stecher (ARI)
21. Alec Martinez (LAK)
22. Shayne Gostisbehere (DET)
23. John Klingberg (TOR)
24. Nikita Zadorov (CGY)
25. Mark Giordano (TOR)
26. Ian Cole (VAN)
27. Brendan Smith (NJD)
28. Jani Hakanpaa (DAL)
29. Dakota Mermis (MIN)
If you filter out all players on playoff teams (and those worse than Smith), I believe these would be best fits for NJD
1. Noah Hanifin (CGY)
2. Chris Tanev (CGY)
3. Alexandre Carrier (NSH)
7. Justin Schultz (SEA)
8. Nick Seeler (PHI)
(Cody Ceci and Marcus Pettersson among 2-year rentals)
Hanifin probably make the most sense. Maybe Kovacevic or Sanheim could be good.
Totally agree. He is probably the closest to bringing the style of game that Graves and Severson brought. And would be helpful 5v5….which is really what we need to improve. Also, our GM has known him since he was a kid.
I've been in the Hanifin train to New Jersey for awhile now but thinking about it, for the price, Carrier might be a better option. Hanifin is the far superior player but if this is a straight rental type situation, is Jersey willing to spend for a rental Hanifin? Could there not be a situation where an extension is agreed up upon? I know Nemec is coming and there is Hughes, wouldn't a situation where you are forced to make a move because you have too much of a good thing be better than hoping young guys take huge strides?
I was looking at stats recently and was thinking if hits and/or blocked shots could be a factor for the defense. As of today, Severson has more blocked shots than any of the devils d-man thus far this season, and Graves has the same amount of blocked shots as Siegenthaler (who has the most for the Devils thus far). Carrier would be great (top 10 in blocked shots among d-man atm). Zadorov would deliver allot of hits, but does not have the best stats as far for blocked shots and Tanev is the inverse. Wish we could get someone like Hanifin or like Connor Murphy (CHI) or bring back Adam Larsson. But, those guys will probably cost an arm and leg and some of them are probably not up for a trade. Hopefully, Miller will play soon and help the defense. Side Note: any updates on his status?
I like Hanafin a ton but it really depends on price. My proposal has been to Trade for hanafin, then move bahl this offseason and Marino next offseason. That should basically recoup our assets. We'd need to convince Hanafin to sign for around 6 mill tho to really make it work
This year
Siegs-Hamilton
Hanafin-Marino
Bahl-Hughes
Next year (this is imo our best year to win the cup):
Siegs-Hamilton
Hughes-Marino
Hanafin-Nemec
2 years
Siegs-Hamilton
Hughes-nemec
Hanafin-Casey/Rental
I've been in the Hanifin train to New Jersey for awhile now but thinking about it, for the price, Carrier might be a better option. Hanifin is the far superior player but if this is a straight rental type situation, is Jersey willing to spend for a rental Hanifin? Could there not be a situation where an extension is agreed up upon? I know Nemec is coming and there is Hughes, wouldn't a situation where you are forced to make a move because you have too much of a good thing be better than hoping young guys take huge strides?
Imo if we were to trade for Hanafin it would lead to Bahl and then Marino trades down the line
Would improve our Dcore significantly the next few years, and long term should be similar cost to play Hanafin-Casey vs Bahl-Marino, with us probably getting more assets selling Bahl+Marino than we gave paying for hamilton
Imo if we were to trade for Hanafin it would lead to Bahl and then Marino trades down the line
Would improve our Dcore significantly the next few years, and long term should be similar cost to play Hanafin-Casey vs Bahl-Marino, with us probably getting more assets selling Bahl+Marino than we gave paying for hamilton
I could see Bahl being in a package for Hanifin but having to make trades because you have too much of a good thing isn't a bad problem to have. Could use those trade chips to upgrade a weak point in the roster somewhere at the time.
I could see Bahl being in a package for Hanifin but having to make trades because you have too much of a good thing isn't a bad problem to have. Could use those trade chips to upgrade a weak point in the roster somewhere at the time.
Bahl wouldn't be in the Hanafin package. We need him for this year and Hanafin will replace Smith. Bahl would be traded this coming offseason to recoup some assets and Nemec will take his spot as the 6th dman
dgibb10 a aimé ceci.
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