I didn't know where else to post this....so made into its own post.
But I have seen a lot of goalie trades that have been wildly optimistic recently. While there are some really good netminders in discussion, I thought it might be useful to list out some historical trades to use as comps. Please use this as resource when building your goalie trade ACGMs.
------
*** NOTE: The trades below are just examples using comps...not recommendations. Just ignore them. Nothing to accept or decline here. And the signings...ignore them. This is just about posting the list. ***
*** NOTE: The trades below are just examples using comps...not recommendations. Just ignore them. Nothing to accept or decline here. And the signings...ignore them. This is just about posting the list. ***
Sure...I will let others decide which goalie is most like Saros today. Just as long as they follow, at least loosely, historical norms....and let previous trades inform their offers.
Every year, fans come up with reasons why the comps don’t apply. Mostly to rationalize their wishes.
Every year, the comps turn out to be more accurate.
Every year.
(And every year, here I am, writing the same “every year” response)
Would love to put money on this one, but will have to suffice with... Let's look back after the Helly trade is done and see that I'm correct, as usual.
Lists like that are great for historical data, but there are a LOT of variances and variables to look at.
You also have to take into consideration factors that trades / lists like that don't consider.
1. There aren't a lot of goalies that will be available this upcoming season.
2. Quite a few teams are a TOP (Vezina caliber) goalie away from going far.
3. Helly wins games. Many of the games the Jets won were because of him.
4. Helly is a freaking workhorse.
5. Helly wants to win. If a team that is in a position to win trades for him, he will most likely sign long term.
More.... but that should suffice.
Statistics and Historical models are good, but the data is too limited and there are far too many variables each season.
See my response above.
The data may be limited, but they are also guides as to what the range of possible trades will be.
I would also say, there seem to be a lot more goalies out there this year than previous, at both the top of the market and below. I am not making any argument as to who is good, who is not, who is buying, who is selling. I am just saying…use the comps. Always use comps.
Would love to put money on this one, but will have to suffice with... Let's look back after the Helly trade is done and see that I'm correct, as usual.
Every year. Every selling teams fans say the same things.
Our guy is different….This year is different….There are more buyers….I will be proven right!
It’s like a broken record. Around-and-around it goes.
Schneider hadnt established himself as a full blown starter at the time of his trade and had only played 98 games and was only making 1 mil less than saros.
Saros has played over 120 games in the last 2 seasons alone and has established himself as a top 5 starter over the past 3 seasons. 30 goalies over with over 100 starts last 3 seasons. Saros 4th in sv% 2nd in games played (167) and started (165). The 3 goalies over him in sv% are Ullmark (110 Games played), Sorokin (136 games played), shesterkin (146 games played). Schneider isnt a great comp
Schneider hadnt established himself as a full blown starter at the time of his trade and had only played 98 games and was only making 1 mil less than saros.
Saros has played over 120 games in the last 2 seasons alone and has established himself as a top 5 starter over the past 3 seasons. 30 goalies over with over 100 starts last 3 seasons. Saros 4th in sv% 2nd in games played (167) and started (165). The 3 goalies over him in sv% are Ullmark (110 Games played), Sorokin (136 games played), shesterkin (146 games played). Schneider isnt a great comp
I agree. Probably not the most fitting comp as he was splitting time. But I kind of threw those examples together quickly.
Every year, fans come up with reasons why the comps don’t apply. Mostly to rationalize their wishes.
Every year, the comps turn out to be more accurate.
Every year.
(And every year, here I am, writing the same “every year” response)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You don't want to pay a fair price, I understand, everyone here wants something for nothing. So you use lower valued players as the comp.
As I said, the Jets aren't looking to trade him from what they say, so you need to give them a reason to. You're not doing that with this offer. I'm sure the Jets are fine waiting.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You don't want to pay a fair price, I understand, everyone here wants something for nothing. So you use lower valued players as the comp.
As I said, the Jets aren't looking to trade him from what they say, so you need to give them a reason to. You're not doing that with this offer. I'm sure the Jets are fine waiting.
I am not posting this for me.
Or about any singular goalie.
I agree. Probably not the most fitting comp as he was splitting time. But I kind of threw those examples together quickly.
Please suggest a better comp and I will use that.
Sadly that may be about the best comp as there doesnt seem to be any real trades where a young top starter is traded. Normally they're traded as their career is in sunset, before they establish themselves, or other extenuating circumstances (trade request, locker room drama, etc.)
Sadly that may be about the best comp as there doesnt seem to be any real trades where a young top starter is traded. Normally they're traded as their career is in sunset, before they establish themselves, or other extenuating circumstances (trade request, locker room drama, etc.)
(or when they are due a new deal...I feel like a lot of good ones move when they hit RFA window)
A + for effort. However, saros and Helly are top 5 goalies in the league, and top 3 in helly's case. Guys like that haven't been moved in the cap era. Its going to cost significantly more than guys who were at best 1a's (korpisalo, schnieder, kuemper) at the time of the trades.
NHLfan10506 et CalvinKlein a aimé ceci.
Répondre
Holtz,
CapFriendly
CapFriendly