Biggest X factors for me are:
- Can the bottom 6 break even this year
- That 2nd line HAS to score at 5v5
- Can Rielly/Schenn not get burned
- Stay out of the penalty box
- Get above average goaltending

I personally would have included Knies + Liljegren over Lafferty + Schenn, hopefully Keefe finally wins one of these 50/50 decisions (stacking the top 6, breaking up the top PP unit, Nylander with JT instead of Matthews, because they’ve all come back to bite him over his tenure as Head coach in the playoffs.

I’m nervous as hell

On a lesser note, I hope Bunting is an X factor in a positive way in that he plays between the whistles and keeps his displeasure of officiating to zero.

I feel Tampa will do everything to get under the skin of guys like Bunting, attempting them to take penalties or worse, get kicked out of the series.

I know you didn't ask for my 2 cents, but I've got nothing better to do during intermission and the whole AM34 trade speculation thing is something I find very interesting. It seems obvious that if Matthews expresses that his intent is to not resign, the Leafs are going to be in a very tough spot. I wouldn't necessarily want to give to too early, and we would have to make a choice at a crucial time in the season. If we are having a really good season come the TDL but Matthews has said he is leaving, do you really give up and just trade him? I don't think so. The tricky thing is that if you wait until the offseason, you'd be stuck trading his UFA rights at best, in which case I cant see a suitable return coming back. I think if Matthews leaves, the immediate priority shouldn't be Nylander, but Marner. Marner is the single most important player on this team. His defensive game, his playmaking ability, his underrated scoring ability. The kid does it all, and losing him would be the nail in the coffin.

We really don't have any great center prospects that have 1st line center upside. As for the basis of the trade, I honestly have no idea. If he gets traded to a team like LA, I would be demanding Quinton Byfield, an unprotected 1st, and potentially another high end prospect like Brandt Clarke. I think LA makes the most sense, as they would have Kopitar's caphit off of the books, it's a Western Conference team, and it's a huge market. They certainly have the assets to make it work, but I would rather not think about a reality where we lose one of the greatest all time Leafs in his prime. There is some hope though, as Matthews seems to like Toronto and the legend himself Kyle Dubas has set us up nicely to have more than enough cap space to make it happen. I'm not losing sleep over the thought of AM34 leaving because I don't think it's happened, but if it does, we have to be extremely smart in how we navigate the trade

What I say to both of you in response is that when it comes to Ekholm and similar scenarios, you gotta do some napkin math and ask yourself "Ekholm has X amount of years so what's the likelihood that I'm around for that entire contract vs trying to give my roster the best chance possible to win right now"

If Dubas is worried about 5-6 years from now, there's a problem. There's a saying something along the lines of "we'll cross that bridge when we get there" and it seems apt this TDL and the entire off season and into next season just because Matthew's status and what happens beyond that.

As for Keefe, the more I see him make certain decisions, the more I shake my head. Babcock had his warts and I feel Keefe has his own. Keefe is definitely the easy first guy shown the door if the playoff results are lacking but I guess where my thinking differs from some of you guys is that Dubas has had 5 years to show playoff success.

It's not all on Dubas, the players have to take some blame here but Dubas is also the guy who assembles the roster. In my lifetime watching sports, GM's get a certain amount of time before ownership decides there's been enough time for the current GM and it's time to bring in someone else.

To me it feels like some just want Dubas as the the indefinite GM of the Leafs and honestly, that's not realistic.

Take a look at Ottawa, next season they are at the cap, and really not having enough cap to sign some players to the contracts they want.

I honestly don’t even want to think about him potentially leaving, I’ll live in ignorance is bliss and just hope for the best.

I don’t even want to guess what a return would even look like if TOR had to go down that road. I’m holding out hope he wants to resign here, I’m guessing another 5 year deal so he in cash in again one more time. Maybe he bolts after that.

On a lesser note, I hope Bunting is an X factor in a positive way in that he plays between the whistles and keeps his displeasure of officiating to zero.

I feel Tampa will do everything to get under the skin of guys like Bunting, attempting them to take penalties or worse, get kicked out of the series.

Absolutely with Bunting, I don't see it getting to the point of getting kicked out but he needs to find that right balance of playing on the edge that makes him effective while not taking stupid retaliatory penalties.

I'm looking at Tavares that needs to step up. His 5v5 play really took a dive this year during the regular season (only two points last year against TBL at 5v5) if Keefe is going to stack that line they need to produce. I would have much rather Marner on that line instead but oh well.

Fella's I get what you're saying but let's be real the x factor for this playoff series is Vasalevski, if he shows up he can be the difference maker and win the series. I think we can get past Tampa this year but some people seem to think it's going to be a cake walk. Tampa ain't just going to roll over and give us 4 easy wins. Whoever makes it to the cup finals from the East this year will have gone through a blood bath to get there.

Agreed but Bunting needs to keep his antics in check. He could easily sink us if he is baited by Tampa. I love the guy, but he is a loose cannon and has a well known reputation. If he becomes another Kadri, I will be extremely upset. This series is completely winnable, but we cant have guys taking dumb penalties

Fella's I get what you're saying but let's be real the x factor for this playoff series is Vasalevski, if he shows up he can be the difference maker and win the series. I think we can get past Tampa this year but some people seem to think it's going to be a cake walk. Tampa ain't just going to roll over and give us 4 easy wins. Whoever makes it to the cup finals from the East this year will have gone through a blood bath to get there.

Chills

No doubt, goaltending is the great equalizer and TBL has one of if not the best in the NHL.

I will say Murray’s glove hand is to Vasilevskiy‘a blocker.


Hopefully they target it again

No doubt, goaltending is the great equalizer and TBL has one of if not the best in the NHL.

I will say Murray’s glove hand is to Vasilevskiy‘a blocker.


Hopefully they target it again

Kind of wish Murray could have stayed healthy and could have put on some good games to the end

As imagine Murray vs. Vasi 2 goalies in the cap era who have helped their teams win B2B cups facing one another in ROUND 1

Either way we just need to pray we get the reg season home Sammy in game 1 and 2 and not swimming against his will road Sammy.

Bunting - Matthews - Jarnkrok
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner
Knies - ROR - Nylander
Lafferty/ZAR - Kampf - Acciari

Coin toss on Lafferty and ZAR. Playing Knies gives you another element that neither of those guys can bring. He's looked ready through 3 games. Why not play the X factor?

Especially at home where you could more easily shelter him if needed in games 1 and 2.

Well...it didn't get any easier this season and guess what? That's not changing next season either unless you know something everyone else doesn't. It is what it is and one can only call it like they see it.

I said all last season and throughout this season that the regular season does not matter, 100 points be damned. It's about the playoffs and what the Leafs do there.

Could not agree more, we’ve been screaming for years Matthews Nylander and Tavares Marner, we finally got for half this year then Keefe reverts back.

Nylander with Tavares
22/23 GF 18 GA 23
20/23 GF 78 GA 81

Nylander with Matthews
22/23 GF 38 GA 14
20/23 GF 49 GA 32

Marner with Tavares
22/23 GF 31 GA 16
20/23 GF 45 GA 39

Marner with Matthews
22/23 GF 33 GA 20
20/23 GF 142 GA 79

There is no question Matthews and Marner are deadly but if you need a goal in the 3rd period then put them together. But it’s been a long enough sample to see Tavares and Nylander together don’t mix.

I definitely didn’t not expect Knies to look this polished. I would scratch Lafferty to keep him in and go:

Bunting Matthews Marner
Knies O’Reilly Nylander
Kerfoot Tavares Jarnkrok
ZAR Kampf Acciari

And if you need to shorten the bench you can always move Knies off for Tavares and move Acciarri up into 3C.



Jarnkrok Tavares Marner TOI 177min
CF% 53 / FF% 54 / xGF 7.11 / xGA 5.53 / HDCF 35 / HDCA 25

Jarnkrok Tavares Nylander TOI 39min
CF% 50 / FF% 56 / xGF 3.58 / xGA 1.95 / HDCF 15 / HDCA 11

They were better defensively in a lower sample. But Nylander has played his best hockey next to Matthews and now O’Reilly.

If Dubas leaves I don't see the reason being money.

I don't believe money will be the reason Dubas leaves. It strictly has to do with playoff success or rather the lack thereof.

Win or lose, if Dubas stays, I definitely want to see a coaching change because some of the decisions throughout the season have left me headscratching.

Fella's I get what you're saying but let's be real the x factor for this playoff series is Vasalevski, if he shows up he can be the difference maker and win the series. I think we can get past Tampa this year but some people seem to think it's going to be a cake walk. Tampa ain't just going to roll over and give us 4 easy wins. Whoever makes it to the cup finals from the East this year will have gone through a blood bath to get there.

Yeah I started my post off with "on a lesser point" LoL

But yeah Vasi is being overlooked because he has not looked stellar like he did the last couple of years. My fear is that he may turn on beast mode and the Leafs get goalied. There's no amount of anything that can be done by a goalie just turning it on.