Jets should take that.

habs just move on from PLD not trading youth or any picks ,,take your pick off the rooster nobody under 25 is available

The 1st and Beck are a good start, but the 2 other relatively worthless pieces would need to be upgraded.

There's no rational or logical case to be made for PLD returning less than Horvat.

I’ll tell you why the Dubois trade as you put it won’t happen.

1. Kent Hughes gave an interview in French and said he considers this draft the deepest in 7 years and he wants to have 3 first round picks.

2. They traded for Kirby Dach and he’s only going to get better. At 6’4”, he’s going to be a very good.

3. I’ve known assistant coach Trevor Letowski from his Sarnia and later Windsor days & the coaching staff are extremely high on Owen Beck.

4. Wifi is not a top 4 dman but Habs finally have a player that will stand up to anybody in the league to protect his teammates. Kirby Dach said yesterday, we know we can play because we have Arber that has our backs.

PIT doesn't need Edmundson

IMO Xhekaj is worth more than Beck. Xhekaj is gonna have a hell of a career if he can stop fighting so much.

Beck >/= Raty
1st is most likely better being an unprotected lottery pick currently at 11th, where the best the Horvat pick can be is 13th.
Beauvilier = Dvorak (close enough it doesn't matter)
Xhekaj > Nothing
Winnipeg isn't retaining 25%

How are you judging that package to be less than Horvat?

Dvorak = isn't needed or wanted. No value to Winnipeg.

Xhekaj = a low end LHD that isn't needed or wanted. No value to Winnipeg.

Trades don't worth that way. You just don't get to dump all the valueless pieces you have and no longer want on the other team. You'd have to give the Jets pieces they need or want or they just move on to the next offer.

So with two pieces that have no value to Winnipeg, it is less than Horvat got.

There's a difference between valueless and no value to Winnipeg. You didn't say wrong package, you said less value than Horvat.
The two pieces that matter, are Beck and the 1st, which is almost certainly more valuable than the 2 pieces for Horvat, and that's not specific to Winnipeg.

Beauvilier was a partial throw in for cap similarly to Tatar in the Pacioretty trade. You hope to get value from that player, but it's not a piece you are expecting much from. The value difference is negligible whether the player is desirable or not.

Xhekaj is not without value, but he's value above and beyond Horvat's package regardless of specific needs. Maybe you keep him, maybe you flip him, maybe you look at another piece to replace him in the deal.

There's room to negotiate, but dismissing half the package as "dumps" (which they aren't) when the first half is already superior, is an objectively bad valuation.

For the record, I don't even want Montreal to trade for PLD and certainly wouldn't offer those pieces. I'll acknowledge that it would take something like Beck and the 1st to put together a package, but if I were to make an offer centered on those 2, I wouldn't go higher than this. The other pieces can be swapped laterally in terms of value for a better fit, but that's not the part of the trade either team should be balking at.

Unprotected 2023 1st, young center picked in a recent 2nd round with top-6 upside, and mid-20s forward that's not quite cap dump but probably isn't worth their $4M+ AAV? I can get that we all have varied opinions on prospects, but just the fact that OP's deal matches the archetype of the Horvat deal and also includes a 22 year old LHD capable of playing 3rd pair minutes at the NHL level already. I don't really know how much more you can expect in a package for a guy who's basically been a 55-60 point guy for his entire career before this season, especially when you add in the fact that he needs a new contract if you're planning on keeping him around for more than a year.

Meh. We're basically saying the same thing. You're trying to sugar coat a poor value offer and I just came out and said the Jets aren't taking less value than Horvat got as a minimum. You can use whatever logic you like, but overpaid bottom sixers don't have a lot of value and neither do 6/7defenseman. Both are easily found in house or on waivers.

Raty also looks to be a higher end pospect than Beck, but the 1st from Florida could be slightly better value. We'll know more in the summer.

The Horvat offer would also only be the starting point as PLD is younger, better and has more team control, so it would be the Horvat offer plus to have a competitive offer.

For the record, I also don't think PLD ends up in Montreal if he moves. They just won't be able to compete money wise, offer wise and lifestyle wise with the choices Winnipeg and PLD will have.

Beck doesn't have top 6 upside, he's pretty much pegged as a 3C at best. Dvorak and AX may have value to some teams, but not Winnipeg.

As I laid out above, trades aren't just one team dumping unwanted pieces for a player they want from another team.

There's no rational or logical reason that Winnipeg should have to expect the less than Horvat got in return. There's just no comparables that show that. Unless you have one.

How many young, PPG 1C's do you think will be available this summer?

I agree that it's pretty much the same as the Horvat deal if not more. Some people are just biased beyond repair.

Beck is more or less equal to Raty.

Beauvillier didn't have more value to Vancouver than Dvorak would have to Winnipeg. Islanders tried to move on from him for a while and there weren't any takers. Both are equivalent players that are just included to facilitate the trade.

A 2023 unprotected first is worth more than a 2023 protected first, basic logic.

Then you have a rookie Xhekaj, who according to TheAthletic, many GMs are biting their lips for not finding him earlier. It's not as simple as LHD = no value to Winnipeg. He's a unique player in his own right and adds value to the deal.

I'm just pointing out that you keep saying Winnipeg shouldn't take less than what Vancouver took for Horvat without acknowledging that, in this case at least, OP is exceeding the value. Just because you don't like Christian Dvorak and don't think Winnipeg needs him doesn't mean that him being included in a deal makes it worse than the Horvat deal - do you think the Canucks were salivating over getting Anthony Beauvillier, and his 54 points in 124 GP going back to the beginning of last season?

An unprotected 2023 1st currently projected to be #11OA is more valuable than the protected 1st Vancouver got - the absolute best that pick could be is two slots later at #13 (and it's possible they have to wait til 2024 to get that pick, too). Beck and Raty are similar types of prospects - I'd agree that Beck's ceiling is lower but I think his floor is higher (ie, Raty's a guy I could see easily being a 2C in Vancouver but there's reasons he slid from a consensus lottery pick a couple years prior to his draft year.) Dvorak slides into the Beauvillier slot by being a slightly overpaid forward in his mid-20s - I'd argue that he's a little more valuable as a center who can PK than a winger who doesn't do much on special teams.

Adding Xhekaj, an NHL player on his ELC, would be more than Vancouver got for Horvat, even if you don't like the player or the fit. I'm not here saying that *this* specific deal would get PLD, but to keep saying it's not close to the Horvat package when it clearly exceeds it just doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

I did not say the offer is "not close". You added that to make your point easier to argue. I said it is less than the Horvat offer.

Basically, my point is, Winnipeg is giving up a younger, better player with more team control than Horvat, where is the logical or rational reasoning or comparisons that demonstrate Winnipeg should need to expect even the same value as Horvat got when they are giving up a more valuable piece. If someone could lay out the reasoning or provide a comparable, I'd be interested to see it.

How many young PPG 1C's do you expect to be available this summer?

I mean, Dylan Larkin is right there, so it's not like PLD is some unicorn that any team looking for a 1C is going to have to zero in on - Larkin also has a better track record, with multiple seasons of coming close to being a PPG player and actually scoring at a slightly better rate for his career than Dubois (0.73 vs. 0.70 PPG for Larkin & Dubois). Larkin's a year older, but if he doesn't extend in Detroit, he can easily be had for the cost of his contract.

Okay, so there's possibly one albeit an older UFA, that scores at about the same rate as PLD. So, with Dubois being younger and having a year of team control, he's definitely pretty close to that unicorn range.

By your example alone, we see that there will maybe be 2 such centers available. You may have a different definition than me, but 2 similar players sounds pretty rare.