Forums/Armchair-GM

Curious About this Trade Down Caps Fans

Créé par: OldNYIfan
Date de création initiale: 19 juin 2022
Publié: 19 juin 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Capitals de Washington
Explications
My earlier post mis-fired because I had the wrong number for Washington's first-round pick.

In light of the announcement that Nicklas Backstrom is undergoing the same operation that failed to save Ryan Kesler's career, I wonder if the Caps would be interested in making this trade.
Transactions
1.
WSH
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. 2022 1e round pick (CGY)
Détails additionnels:
26th overall
MTL
  1. 2022 1e round pick (WSH)
20th overall
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2022
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2023
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2024
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
1982 500 000 $68 771 666 $100 000 $0 $13 728 334 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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Ovechkin, Alex
9 500 000 $
AG
NMC NTC
UFA - 4
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Kuznetsov, Evgeny
7 800 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 3
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Oshie, T.J.
5 750 000 $
AD
NTC
UFA - 3
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Sheary, Conor
1 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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Dvorak, Christian
4 450 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 3
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Mantha, Anthony
5 700 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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Snively, Joe
800 000 $
AG
UFA - 2
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Eller, Lars
3 500 000 $
C
UFA - 1
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Wilson, Tom
5 166 666 $
AD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Jonsson-Fjällby, Axel
750 000 $
AG
RFA - 1
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McMichael, Connor
863 333 $
AG, C
RFA - 2
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Hathaway, Garnet
1 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
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Hagelin, Carl
2 750 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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Dowd, Nic
1 300 000 $
C
UFA - 3
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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Orlov, Dmitry
5 100 000 $
DG/DD
NTC
UFA - 1
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Carlson, John
8 000 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 4
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van Riemsdyk, Trevor
950 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
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Jensen, Nick
2 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
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Fehérváry, Martin
791 667 $
DG
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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Bäckström, Nicklas
9 200 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 3

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19 juin à 14 h 37
#1
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The difference between pick 20 in this version, and pick 21 in the old is unlikely to change any opinions about the trade.
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19 juin à 14 h 40
#2
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this is overpayment to jump from only 6 spots ... i'd rather gave edmonton 2cnd rounder than our first rounder from Calgary ...
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19 juin à 14 h 41
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Quoting: J2W
The difference between pick 20 in this version, and pick 21 in the old is unlikely to change any opinions about the trade.


Yeah, but I thought I would be accurate. Habs fans think it's inadequate, which is why I directed both posts to Caps fans.
19 juin à 14 h 42
#4
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So let's say that that Dvorak is worth a late first round pick 28th hypothetically

26 = 3.3 in value
28 = 3.1 in value

20 is an even 4 in value. Difference of 2.4 in loss for MTL

For Dvorak to be included MTL would be looking to move into the top 15 minimum
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19 juin à 14 h 44
#5
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I think it’s close.

Dvorak is a good player, had a bad year. But so did that entire team.

His value is down, but definitely still there. I think it works.

Rather have him on the Leafs though wink

Edit: I did say close. I think the Caps would need to add slightly.
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19 juin à 14 h 46
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Quoting: habitantlecolon
this is overpayment to jump from only 6 spots ... i'd rather gave edmonton 2cnd rounder than our first rounder from Calgary ...


I'm sure that you would, but I don't think Dvorak moves you up 35 spots.
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19 juin à 14 h 48
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Yeah, but I thought I would be accurate. Habs fans think it's inadequate, which is why I directed both posts to Caps fans.


Accuracy is important, and at the draft it could be the difference in the deal happening or not, but it's such a small change that editing the original seems more appropriate. The deal is inadequate from the MTL side of things, considering a mid to late 2nd would be more than enough to make a 6 spot jump late in the first round, and a good middle 6C on a decent deal is worth more than that. Caps fans take the deal and run, easily.
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19 juin à 14 h 49
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Modifié 19 juin à 15 h 0
meh to get up 6 spots that's a lot

I would probably do pick #33 + Dvorak...if you wanna argue Dvorak is worth an early-mid 2nd then it compares to last years trade of pick #40 + #51 for #27
19 juin à 14 h 49
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Quoting: Subbanator7667
So let's say that that Dvorak is worth a late first round pick 28th hypothetically

26 = 3.3 in value
28 = 3.1 in value

20 is an even 4 in value. Difference of 2.4 in loss for MTL

For Dvorak to be included MTL would be looking to move into the top 15 minimum


Well, the problem is that I'm not sure everyone would agree with you that he's worth a late first. For example, I don't think that Arizona or Buffalo would be willing to pay their late firsts for him. I could be wrong.
19 juin à 15 h 2
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I tried tracking down the exact quote, but can't. About a month ago, I read a National Hockey League exec saying Dvorak is worth a late first or a second and a B prospect. That makes sense, so I feel this trade is a little steep for the Habs. I can definitely say that Dvorak doesn't get the Habs a top 15, nor the 1st and 2nd Bergevin paid for him...

My other thought is that it's probably not worth paying this price to move up 6 spots in this year's draft unless a team is trying to get into the top-10. There are plenty of solid prospects at this range (20 - 35), without there being any real gamebreakers.
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19 juin à 15 h 6
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Quoting: uncle_toto
I tried tracking down the exact quote, but can't. About a month ago, I read a National Hockey League exec saying Dvorak is worth a late first or a second and a B prospect. That makes sense, so I feel this trade is a little steep for the Habs. I can definitely say that Dvorak doesn't get the Habs a top 15, nor the 1st and 2nd Bergevin paid for him...

My other thought is that it's probably not worth paying this price to move up 6 spots in this year's draft unless a team is trying to get into the top-10. There are plenty of solid prospects at this range (20 - 35), without there being any real gamebreakers.


Thanks for the thoughtful and insightful reply. You don't have to chase the cite down because it sounds entirely plausible. And upon mature reflection, I think that your point about the location of the 6-slot move is very, very important. Great point.
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19 juin à 15 h 6
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Well, the problem is that I'm not sure everyone would agree with you that he's worth a late first. For example, I don't think that Arizona or Buffalo would be willing to pay their late firsts for him. I could be wrong.


So because a non-playoff team wouldn't pay a certain price for a player, their value in a trade with a playoff team should be less? Weird argument but fair enough. Dvorak's value based on middle 6C being traded in the past would be late 1st early 2nd, or a similar value of roster players/prospects. Just last draft we saw pick 20 traded for 22 and 90, the extra 4 spots don't equal moving from pick 90 to around pick 30-40's value. We also saw that moving up 7 spots to 15 cost 23 48 and 138, which is also less than Dvorak plus 26 and it moved them more spots and to a more valuable pick. Maybe Dvorak and MTL 2nd (33) for WSH 1st (20) WSH 3rd (85), I don't know though, MTL would need to be pretty high on someone at 20 and be positive they wouldn't slip to 26.
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19 juin à 15 h 11
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Depends a lot on who is left on the board once it gets to pick 20 and who else is available to take backstrom's spot at 2c. I think Dvorak demonstrated this year that he isn't a 2c on a stanley cup winning team, but would be a pretty good 3c. Value is probably fair, but obviously couldn't give a definitive yes or no until the draft
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19 juin à 15 h 12
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Well, the problem is that I'm not sure everyone would agree with you that he's worth a late first. For example, I don't think that Arizona or Buffalo would be willing to pay their late firsts for him. I could be wrong.


He was just traded last off season for a first and a second. Had a down year but not enough of one to justify MTL accepting anything less than a first for him.
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19 juin à 15 h 15
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Quoting: J2W
So because a non-playoff team wouldn't pay a certain price for a player, their value in a trade with a playoff team should be less? Weird argument but fair enough. Dvorak's value based on middle 6C being traded in the past would be late 1st early 2nd, or a similar value of roster players/prospects. Just last draft we saw pick 20 traded for 22 and 90, the extra 4 spots don't equal moving from pick 90 to around pick 30-40's value. We also saw that moving up 7 spots to 15 cost 23 48 and 138, which is also less than Dvorak plus 26 and it moved them more spots and to a more valuable pick. Maybe Dvorak and MTL 2nd (33) for WSH 1st (20) WSH 3rd (85), I don't know though, MTL would need to be pretty high on someone at 20 and be positive they wouldn't slip to 26.


After reading the responses to both of my posts, I think you're really onto something there.

The reason I chose Arizona and Buffalo is because cap concerns come into the picture with playoff teams who, with the exception of Washington for the premise reason, are close to the cap and also usually don't need a quality center.

Thanks for the intelligent reply.
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19 juin à 15 h 19
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Yeah, but I thought I would be accurate. Habs fans think it's inadequate, which is why I directed both posts to Caps fans.


by that logic, I'm sure I could find habs fan to agree to a Ovi for Dvorak trade... Smh.
19 juin à 17 h 13
#17
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I’m not a Dvorak fan but don’t think that’s worth moving up 6 spots. He’s got more value than that
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19 juin à 18 h 3
#18
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This is one hell of a crazy price to ask for moving up just 6 spots to still be outside the top 10
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19 juin à 18 h 20
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
After reading the responses to both of my posts, I think you're really onto something there.

The reason I chose Arizona and Buffalo is because cap concerns come into the picture with playoff teams who, with the exception of Washington for the premise reason, are close to the cap and also usually don't need a quality center.

Thanks for the intelligent reply.


If I ever was to go down for a trade I would try Faksa + 18th for Dvorak + 62th to even experience and ceilling ... so to jump from 26 to 20 it's a no for me. This draft is nowhere near to be that deep nor Dvorak been a bad player ... our team did a blow up last summer and finish dead last because losing 1st d (Weber to injury) 1st g (Price to injury) and at that time 1st C (Danault) and 3rd C (Kotkaniemi) ... had 3 coaches in 15 months or so .... we need to place value in perspective and context.
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19 juin à 18 h 42
#20
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#26, Dvorak for #20

The Caps aren't going to help Montreal with their cap problems as the Caps are not in great position themselves.

Caps counter with #26, Dvorak for 2nd
19 juin à 18 h 44
#21
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Quoting: ZachHymanForTheHart
Dvorak is a good player, had a bad year. But so did that entire team.


It was literally one of the better years that he has had over the last ... well... career.
19 juin à 18 h 47
#22
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Quoting: WhyWait
#26, Dvorak for #20

The Caps aren't going to help Montreal with their cap problems as the Caps are not in great position themselves.

Caps counter with #26, Dvorak for 2nd


The object isn't "to help Montreal with their cap problems," it's to find a semi-replacement for Nicklas Backstrom, perhaps permanently. That won't be cheap, and thus I think that your counter-offer is unrealistic. I may undervalue Dvorak, at least in part because I believed from the outset that Montreal had overpaid for him, but in my opinion you aren't valuing him properly at all.
19 juin à 19 h 11
#23
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
The object isn't "to help Montreal with their cap problems," it's to find a semi-replacement for Nicklas Backstrom, perhaps permanently. That won't be cheap, and thus I think that your counter-offer is unrealistic. I may undervalue Dvorak, at least in part because I believed from the outset that Montreal had overpaid for him, but in my opinion you aren't valuing him properly at all.


Dvorak isn't in the ballpark of Backstrom. Not even the same sport. Dvorak would be a potential replacement for Eller.

Flipping form the #20 to #51 might be a bot much, but it is much closer than #20.
20 juin à 10 h 38
#24
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Dvorak is a pretty good player. That being said, if the Caps are looking to replace Backstrom's production at 2C, they'll probably target someone with more point production than Dvorak who has a PPG pace of 0.5. Could just be that he hasn't been surrounded with a ton of talent in his career yet, but the Caps can't really take a risk on a player to breakout at such an important position with where the team stands at the end of the Ovi era.
 
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