Habs take it

Who of Slaf Nemec Cooley do you take at 2 and 3 though?

I think arizona should do better than taht with chychrun. Awesome player with term.

2OA pick is a good asset but if anything New Jersey adds to get Chychrun, not the other way around.

I think the deal makes a lot of sense for both teams. habs unloads byrons cap and get a mid pick. Arizona gets a lot of cap to hit cap floor with very little money actually owed to the players.

No Idea! Haven't followed the draft class enough! But either way they get 2 very solid players to build off of. This way they can make a strong run at matthews in a few years.

I just don't think the value's there. You're giving the Devils #45, #66, and Chychurn to trade up to #2.

I like to look at Dom Luszczyszyn's Draft Value Chart when looking at pick deals because it does a pretty good job of putting simple numbers (in the form of expected GSVA during the player's RFA years) on each pick's value.

#2 has an expected value of 12.3; #45 is 1.8 and #66 is 1.0 So you'd have to expect Chychurn to make up *at least* 9.5 GSVA worth of value during his time on the Devils to make this trade fair; he has 3 years left and has been putting up numbers in the 1.5-2.0 range the past few years. So even if he matches his best year for 3 straight seasons with the Devils, they'd still come out huge losers on this deal.

I feel like you'd have to start with Colorado & Carolina's 1sts before adding Chych to even come close (best case there is 27 & 31 = 6.0 GSVA). I still think it wouldn't be nearly enough.

2nd overall pick is SUPER valuable. Chychrun is very good but the 2nd overall pick is worth more in my mind. hence the 2nd and 3rd going back to New Jersey.

I think it's also going to depend on the insurance claim for Weber's contract, if approved then all $6 million still owed would be covered by them and not the team. Essentially 7.8 million of free cap space. Taking on Byron though will likely cost the Habs so I think the lick actually goes the other way.

funny 2 other posters in here said the opposite. I think Chychrun is a solid top 3 dman who is making less money than he would normally get on the open market. I think both teams consider this. But maybe you are right that Arizona needs to pay more.

Ya i think thats lunacy.

Leafs take it and RUN

id definitely go Cooley and Nemec. Always build your team around a good center and then RHD's are a premium in the league unless you are LA.

I don't think he's a bad player at all; I think your assessment of him being a solid top 3 D is spot on, and his contract/age definitely work in his favor.

I just think #2OA, even in what most folks think is a mediocre draft, is still very valuable. Let's take the 2019/20/21 drafts out because most of those kids are still super young and haven't had a ton of run yet (Kakko/Byfield/Beniers with 2 of those 3 looking like good prospects and Kakko looking solid if not spectacular) and look at the 10 #2 picks between 2009-2018:

2009: Victor Hedman (Norris Trophy & Conn Smythe Trophy winner)
2010: Tyler Seguin (305 goals in 825 GP - pretty good!)
2011: Gabriel Landeskog (248 goals in 738 GP, Calder Trophy, captain of a Cup Final team)
2012: Ryan Murray (even in a year when everyone missed the top 4 guys, still has 432 GP in his career)
2013: Sasha Barkov (Byng Trophy, Selke Trophy, 220 goals in 596 GP)
2014: Sam Reinhart (167 goals in 532 GP, finally a PPG player in Florida)
2015: Jack Eichel (153-227-380 in 409 GP, consensus #1 in any year w/o McDavid)
2016: Patrik Laine (176 goals in 407 GP, PPG this year with CBJ)
2017: Nolan Patrick (ugh - 77 points in 222 GP, ruined by head injuries, shoulda been Tkachuk or Hughes)
2018: Andrei Svechnikov (89-120-209 in 283 GP, loves scoring cool goals)

I'd say 8/10 of those dudes are bonafide top line players - Ryan Murray is an obvious miss and Nolan Patrick is a miss with an asterisk because he's still young enough to come back from these injury woes and turn into a solid player. But basically saying you've got an 80% shot of picking a top line player is, to me, worth more than the package the Devils would be picking up in this deal.

I’d argue Chychrun is worth 2nd overall or more, he’s a quality 1st pair d on a good contract, those don’t come often and I think teams might rather have a guaranteed good player in Chychrun, rather than the chance the player at 2 become as good/better. Also that’s a steal for MTL, Byron’s not worth much on that contract and Weber’s an LTIR contract

Top-2 picks don't get traded. For good reason.
Don't expect NJD to trade theirs this year.

Spot on

(except note on 2017 and Patrick, which should have been Makar, who some in Flyers scouting department wanted. Quinn and Brady were 2018)

yup! i realized that as soon as you said it, my fault for jumping between half a dozen HockeyDB tabs lol.

Still a good response

Appreciate it - not trying to say that Chychurn is a bum or anything, but I feel like the Devils moving 2OA makes no sense (unless they're getting something I N S A N E back in return) because you've got really strong odds that you'll walk away with a top tier player - even in a mediocre draft.

I think after 4/5OA you start seeing more variety and that's the first pick I'd start thinking about moving for a guy like Chych. You only get so many cracks at top 3 talent though, and it's gotta be something huge to move that out.

Fully agree. Top-6 is where I’d draw the line.