Forums/Armchair-GM

What price would you rather pay to move up in the draft

Créé par: sensonfire
Date de création initiale: 13 mai 2022
Publié: 13 mai 2022
Équipe: 2021-22 Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Explications
1. The one for 6th overall


2. The one for 5th overall


3. The one for 4th overall


4. The one for 3rd overall


5. The one for 2nd overall


6. The one for Shane Wright
Transactions
1.
OTT
  1. 2022 1e round pick (MTL)
MTL
    7th overall + Jake Sanderson
    2.
    OTT
    1. 2022 1e round pick (NJD)
    NJD
      7th overall and New Jersey's choice of any one of our prospects except for Jake Sanderson.
      3.
      OTT
      1. 2022 1e round pick (ARI)
      ARI
        7th overall and Ottawa's choice of one of our former first round picks.
        4.
        OTT
        1. 2022 1e round pick (SEA)
        SEA
          7th overall + Both of our seconds
          5.
          OTT
          1. 2022 1e round pick (PHI)
          PHI
            7th overall + Ottawa's 2nd
            6.
            OTT
            1. 2022 1e round pick (CHI)
            CBJ
              7th overall + Tampa's 2nd
              Rachats de contrats
              • Bobby Ryan: 3 583 333 $
              • Dion Phaneuf: 354 167 $
              Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
              • Nicholas Paul: 600 750 $ (45%)
              ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
              2022
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              2023
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              TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
              2481 500 000 $69 364 757 $0 $4 507 500 $12 135 243 $
              Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
              Logo de OTT
              Tkachuk, Brady
              8 330 674 $
              AG, C
              UFA - 7
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              Norris, Joshua
              925 000 $
              C
              RFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Batherson, Drake
              4 975 000 $
              AD
              UFA - 6
              Logo de OTT
              Joseph, Mathieu
              737 500 $
              C, AG, AD
              RFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Stützle, Tim
              925 000 $
              AG, C
              RFA - 2
              Logo de OTT
              Brown, Connor
              3 600 000 $
              AG, AD
              UFA - 2
              Logo de OTT
              Formenton, Alex
              747 500 $
              AG
              RFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Pinto, Shane
              925 000 $
              C
              RFA - 2
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              White, Colin
              4 750 000 $
              AD, C
              UFA - 4
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              Watson, Austin
              1 500 000 $
              AD, AG
              UFA - 2
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              Gambrell, Dylan
              1 100 000 $
              C
              RFA - 1
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              Gaudette, Adam
              997 500 $
              C, AD
              RFA - 1
              Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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              Chabot, Thomas
              8 000 000 $
              DG
              UFA - 7
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              Zaitsev, Nikita
              4 500 000 $
              DD
              NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo de OTT
              Forsberg, Anton
              900 000 $
              G
              UFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Brännström, Erik
              863 333 $
              DG/DD
              RFA - 1
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              Zub, Artem
              2 500 000 $
              DD
              UFA - 2
              Logo de OTT
              Murray, Matt
              6 250 000 $
              G
              NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo de OTT
              Holden, Nick
              1 700 000 $
              DG
              UFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Hamonic, Travis
              3 000 000 $
              DD
              NTC
              UFA - 2
              Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
              Logo de OTT
              Tierney, Chris
              3 500 000 $
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Del Zotto, Michael
              2 000 000 $
              DG
              UFA - 2
              Logo de OTT
              Mete, Victor
              1 200 000 $
              DG/DD
              RFA - 1
              Logo de OTT
              Ennis, Tyler
              900 000 $
              AG, AD
              UFA - 1

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              What price would you rather pay to move up in the draft
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              13 mai à 19 h 30
              #1
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              I would honestly do that deal as the Devils. Sanderson is a stud D. Someone good will still be there at the 7th spot and I already have a sure thing.
              HeadHighSauce et sensonfire a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 19 h 30
              #2
              Chart Boi
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              Quoting: NJDevils1317
              I would honestly do that deal as the Devils. Sanderson is a stud D. Someone good will still be there at the 7th spot and I already have a sure thing.


              I would as well, and I'm in love with Logan Cooley at this point.
              sensonfire et csick a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 19 h 37
              #3
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              All of these prices are extremely high. I wouldn’t even want Cooley for Sanderson 1 for 1 let alone with Ottawa throwing 7th overall in… or even Greig?? Way too high on all of these.
              sensonfire, csick et Cowling a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 19 h 39
              #4
              BigMeech
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              MTL decline
              13 mai à 19 h 42
              #5
              Démarrer sujet
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Canucks123
              MTL decline


              Good for them
              HeadHighSauce, Canucks123, csick and 2 others a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 19 h 43
              #6
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              I mean I get it’s only moving back two spots…but Tyler Boucher? Meh
              Canucks123 a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 19 h 43
              #7
              Démarrer sujet
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
              All of these prices are extremely high. I wouldn’t even want Cooley for Sanderson 1 for 1 let alone with Ottawa throwing 7th overall in… or even Greig?? Way too high on all of these.


              What is a Top 5 pick worth exactly in your opinion?
              13 mai à 19 h 44
              #8
              Démarrer sujet
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Clarky11
              I mean I get it’s only moving back two spots…but Tyler Boucher? Meh


              kk
              13 mai à 20 h 2
              #9
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              If that’s the trade for 2OA I think Fitz needs to do it.
              sensonfire et csick a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 20 h 18
              #10
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              Yes from Devils.
              sensonfire et csick a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 20 h 46
              #11
              frosty cold
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              First of all I must say this makes for interestimg conversation.
              The only trade I would be somewhat interested in is number 2 assuming Slavkofsky is still on the board.
              BTW - I think you are greatly undervaluing Sanderson.
              csick et sensonfire a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 20 h 46
              #12
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              These are all insane what are you talking about lmao?

              There's decades of data to suggest that trading up in the draft is a losing proposition to begin with, and you're talking about moving our best prospects and potential shot at a wildly better player in Connor Bedard. This is just horrific for Ottawa
              csick, athrin et Cowling a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 21 h 1
              #13
              KFTW
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              I’d pay the Tampa 2nd to move up from 7 to 5 and take Jiricek
              sensonfire et athrin a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 21 h 2
              #14
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              These are all insane what are you talking about lmao?

              There's decades of data to suggest that trading up in the draft is a losing proposition to begin with, and you're talking about moving our best prospects and potential shot at a wildly better player in Connor Bedard. This is just horrific for Ottawa


              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.
              athrin a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 21 h 13
              #15
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              Quoting: csick
              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.


              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.
              csick, wardbell92 et Cowling a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 21 h 17
              #16
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.


              Yeah i wouldn’t offer Jake for Shane cuz both are prospects and it doesn’t make sense to do a risky trade like that. It’s also not like there’s a clear star at 2nd overall. Cooley , Slaf could both go at 4 if someone likes Nemec more
              Cowling a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 21 h 31
              #17
              Démarrer sujet
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: csick
              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.


              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.


              I never really understood what the value of a Top 10 pick is.

              Let alone one in the Top 5.

              Especially since the value varies from one draft to the next.



              Maybe someone who would know more than me could explain in a way that is somewhat helpful.

              Like yourself.

              And I wouldn't make a post like this one or the last one ever again.



              What do you say?
              Claesson4Norris a aimé ceci.
              13 mai à 22 h 25
              #18
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              I never really understood what the value of a Top 10 pick is.

              Let alone one in the Top 5.

              Especially since the value varies from one draft to the next.



              Maybe someone who would know more than me could explain in a way that is somewhat helpful.

              Like yourself.

              And I wouldn't make a post like this one or the last one ever again.



              What do you say?


              Trading up in the draft is just an inherently losing proposition. From a value perspective, it's basically always better to be the team moving back vs moving up because the real world cost is always more than the projected increase in pick value. There have been a lot of interesting articles written by sports blogs on the subject going back as far as like 2011. Think the Leafs nation blog have a couple.

              As far as the specific pieces in question, I think you're really undestimating the value of a Top drafted and semi developed prospect vs the mystery box. For example Jake Sanderson, who was arguably the best player not in the NHL this year is probably as valuable or more valuable than a 1st overall pick. He's a true top prospect who is about to jump into a significant role in the NHL next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

              To put it in terms of players, the gap between a Cooley and say Lekkerimaki is nowhere near the difference of having Greig and Sanderson.

              Also you should make whatever posts you want haha. I disagree with the values on these deals, but I wasn't intending to discourage you from posting or anything lol
              sensonfire a aimé ceci.
              14 mai à 5 h 1
              #19
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              cbj accepts if both Jiricek and Nemec are gone at 6
              sensonfire a aimé ceci.
              14 mai à 12 h 57
              #20
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              What is a Top 5 pick worth exactly in your opinion?


              You’re right that a top 5 pick is valuable, I just think you undervalued Ottawa’s pick a bit. Moving up 2 spots to 5th shouldn’t cost the farm in a draft class where there is no distinct drop off in the quality of prospects there. If you were looking to acquire a pick that high without giving something like 7th up then it’s extremely expensive, yes.

              Each class will have different groupings of players. Ottawa only paid a 3rd to move up from 12th to 11th in 2016. But in a year like 2021 where there was a distinct top 9, moving up from 10 to 9 would have been very expensive for Dorion. When you look at 2020, the top grouping ended at 10 so moving up from 10 to 9 that year wouldn’t have been nearly as costly. It’s all very fluid year to year.

              So keep in mind that this draft class isn’t the strongest, even someone like Greig (taken low in a strong 2020 class) who’s now two years down the road in development may end up being a better player than someone like Geekie who looks like a top 10 pick. He was ranked as the 18th best propect outside the NHL by Button recently. Does Geekie come close to that ranking? Unlikely. Does he come close to that ranking in his D+2 season? Maybe but we’d have to wait to find out and as of right now Greig is better and much closer to helping at the NHL level. I wouldn’t want to swap Greig for a Geekie 1 for 1. Sanderson was ranked as the best propect in the world outside of the NHL. I wouldn’t swap him 1 for 1 for any pick in this draft.

              Sorry for the long winded answer. TLDR Moving up from 7th is still very valuable in this draft and is much closer in value to 6th, 5th abd 4th than 4th is to 3rd, 2nd and 1st. Sanderson should be untouchable and trading Greig to move up would be counterproductive.
              sensonfire a aimé ceci.
               
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