Sounds about right. Although it’s more of Muzzin deal + Holl. Leafs could also keep Holl and send Knies instead of Hirvonen.

leafs arnt giving up Niemela (or Robertson or Knies or Amirov) for Severson. Muzzin didnt get a prospect near their level

Los Angeles didn't retain on Muzzin so that would increase the value that New Jersey would get.

I also highly doubt that Niemela is available. Unless he's having commitment issues in coming over, Toronto isn't gonna look to deal their top RHD prospect when that's a position they've been looking to fill for years.

Based on Dubas' press conference it seems like he doesn't wanna move the 2022 1st at all so I'd take that off the table from the start - it seems like a non starter completely. Seravalli also noted that Amirov and Knies could be moved instead of the 1st round pick. Basing a deal off of the Muzzin return is likely the comparable to use, just not directly since there won't be a 1st involved (also a 0% chance that Severson is worth a top prospect + a 1st round pick to begin with)

I'd think it'd be around a deal like this:

Devils get:
Rodion Amirov
Travis Dermott (more likely than Holl to be moved)
2022 2nd round pick
2023 conditional 3rd round pick (becomes higher pick based on Toronto's success in playoffs

Leafs get:
Damon Severson
Nathan Bastian

Amirov takes the value of the 1st in the Muzzin deal but Amirov would have slightly more value than that. Dermott takes the place of Durzi as both are likely to be bottom 4 defenceman and have the same value range. The 2nd would be the value of Grundstrom who was a B prospect in Toronto's system at the time of the deal, and then New Jersey is compensated with a 3rd round pick for Bastian as he can be added depth for the Leafs playoff run

Grundstrom, Durzi were both top-5 prospects in a Leafs prospect pool that was more highly regarded than it is today. So this is a hard claim to make.

Way too much. You won't get Knies or Niemela. Robertson and a 1st is enough

because the leafs prospect pool was a lot shallower. they were not comparable

Severson would get so much more than this if he were being moved, but thankfully he will not be.

He has been nearly ppg d-man over last couple of months. He has been in top-5 in NHL in defensive goals-above-replacement. He is a young RD with term on a great contract (if retained, an amazing contract).

He is *a lot* better than Savard or Risto who both got 1st pick+ as rentals. He has probably played as well as, if not better than, Seth Jones did last year, and look what he got. The RD market is expensive. To say he would not return a prospect or 1st is just pithy derision untethered from reality.

Severson must be the second coming of Christ.

How about 2nd instead of Hirvonen then?

I would give up Robertson and a 1st for Severson. That's better than what we gave up for Muzzin who is better. Anything more and you have to retain or take Ritchie back. That would be a good move for TO. Severson would be really good with Muzzin. And a definite upgrade over Holl who would slide to the 3rd pair to face easier minutes. Or Liljegren plays there if he wins the job. Which I think says more about Liljegren than it does Holl.

Lmao.

To say he's get a top prospect and a 1st is nothing but pure biasness. Stats don't tell the whole story - otherwise Ben Chiarot wouldn't be valued for a 1st right now. Or why Draisaitl got Selke votes 2 seasons ago despite being one of the worst statistical defensive players in the league. Severson is not as good as you think or say he is. The Muzzin deal is a great comparable and that didn't include a top prospect and a 1st so Severson wouldn't.

If it was shallower, but higher ranked overall, that would mean the top-5 (which included both guys in Muzzin) would be more valuable.

If today is deeper, but lower ranked, it would mean the top-5 (including Niemela, Knies, Amirov, Robertson) would be less valuable.

But valued like Rasmus Christolainen

Right. It included two top-5 prospects AND a 1st.

Durzi was drafted that previous summer and put up 37 points in 35 games as a defenseman. Grundstrom was over a PPG in the AHL (small sample size), producing well in the SHL, and the year prior was a PPG in WJC Hirvonen has similar WJC and Liiga production to Grundstrom.

I really don't think these prospects are that far off

if grundstrom and Durzi were transported back from before the trade to now into the leafs system, both would rank below all four of the leafs major prospects, they'd basically be tied with Hollowell and Hirovinen

Hollowell is a lot older and an AHLer. Durzi was coming off an excellent Memorial Cup. Grundstrom was expected to be in NHL later that season (and was talked about in similar ways Knies is talked about today). You’re just moving the goalposts.

Grundstrom had 29 points in 42 games as a 20 year old, which is decent but nothing special and Durzi never picked up his scoring really until after the trade (the trade happened in jan)
they were a step down from where the other prospects at the time

the memorial cup happened 5 months after the trade

Oh, that’s right. Still, was putting numbers in juniors and had just been drafted in 2nd.

Durzi = Niemela
Grundstrom = Knies

he was putting up meh numbers and never really picked it up until later in the season. Niemela is currently the top defender on a Liga team and 2nd in scoring and looked like the best defender in an abridged WJC
Grundstrom was a 20 year old putting up ok AHL numbers and Knies is arguably the best player on his Big 10 team despite being one of it's youngest players, looked fantastic in the prev mentioned WJC and is now one of the best players on the american Olympic team.
they are not close to equal in value

Just because a player is an organizational top 5 prospect, doesn't mean they're that highly graded. Grundstrom was a B prospect and Durzi was a C+.. they weren't highly rated prospects.



Lmao. Niemela is a way better prospect than Durzi. Just admit you don't know anything about Leafs prospects. Cause right now that's all you're showing

It's important to note that Durzi was drafted in his second year of eligibility. The following year was his 20 year old season and that production, while encouraging of course, was not all that meaningful or out of the ordinary - anything much less would have been disappointing, frankly. His standing at the time of the trade was no where near Niemela's, that's just the way it is.

Hirvonen in comparison to Grundstrom, however, is much closer (though Grundstrom wasn't a P/G player in the A). Hirvonen's got the edge in positional versatility and the higher ceiling, but Grundstrom was pretty much a guarantee to be a player. A bottom of the lineup player, but still. I could see having a preference for either.

I LOVE SEVERSON.
but thats an overpay

There were highly rated prospects - at least as highly rated as the guys we are talking about today. None of these guys are elite A+ top-20 in league, bluechip guys. I get the sense that some leafs fans believe differently. And that’s fine. But that was not what you said, is it? You said Severson isn’t worth any of these prospects. You said he isn’t worth a 1st. So don’t come at me with “you don’t know anything” after that.