It depends on how high a team values the pick

If a team views a player available at that spot as a potential steal they value it higher then if they rnt looking at anyone in particular and just select BPA on their list

Honestly, I think this trade is fair, and I think Tampa may do it if they are in contention at the deadline. Again, Paul is probably as good as Goodrow was when he got traded, but with Paul only having one year on his deal, I think that’s why you need to add that third round pick.


Barclay Goodrow: 62GP, 8G, 16A, 24P, -8+/-

Nick Paul: 56GP, 5G, 15A, 20P, +5+/-

As you can see, their stats are VERY similar at the time they would be traded. The only difference is that this past season was shortened, and 2019-2020 was not. With Barclay only playing 6 or so more games in San Jose, he only got 4 more points, and he got a minus. With Tampa throwing around first round picks, I could see it.

Agreed. Also depends on the perceived quality of the draft.

There's a number of examples of trades in the late 20's though. For instance:
-In 2011, the Leafs traded #22 OA for #30 OA and #39 OA in 2011 (That didn't turn out so well for Toronto).
-In 2014, the Tampa traded #28 OA for #35 and #57 (Didn't work out well for either team).
-In 2015, Philly acquired #24 OA for #29 and #61 from the Leafs (Long live Thomas Konecny, but Bracco was the GOAT!)
-In 2016, Washington acquired #26 OA for #28 and #87 (This is probably the closest example...dropping 2 spots at the bottom of the first netted the Caps a late 3rd)
-In 2017, Anaheim dropped 3 spots from #26, and acquired #29 and #70.
-In 2019, #34 OA went for #45 and #65 OA.

The difference between the last pick in the first round and a mid 3rd rounder would be a early to mid 2nd round pick

According to the Athletic's draft pick value chart,

#31 = 2.8
#85 = 0.6

[2.8 - 0.6] = 2.2

Picks 38, 39 = 2.2

My feeling would be something around #34 to #36.